2018 Hot Stove League

[Second Base 8,357]

45 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Assuming these shorter team contracts are the new normal, and both Harper and Machado get 6-8 year deals, does that change your offer to Trout?  Or do you still offer him 10 years and $400 million?

I offer Mike Trout whatever it takes to spend his career in an Angel uniform. If that is 10/400, or 12/480 or 8/320 matters little to me as a fan.

[Lou 42,462]

just because it's a horrible deal for us, is it really that bad for Milwaukee? They're trying to win now, have upgraded a position that was greatly needed and did so without making a long-term commitment. 

[ukyah 3,267]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

just because it's a horrible deal for us, is it really that bad for Milwaukee? They're trying to win now, have upgraded a position that was greatly needed and did so without making a long-term commitment. 

i think it's pretty bad to give up a 2nd round pick and whichever int'l players you could have had for one year of a good catcher.

[arch stanton 9,823]

The Brewers desperately want to compete with the Cubs both on and off the field. They need some post season success. Maybe they see some chinks in the Cubs' armor for this season and want to stay ahead of the Cards while they have a window

[UndertheHalo 10,674]

34 minutes ago, Lou said:

just because it's a horrible deal for us, is it really that bad for Milwaukee? They're trying to win now, have upgraded a position that was greatly needed and did so without making a long-term commitment. 

There may be a little bit of hyper valuing the 2nd round pick and the 500k international money on this board.  I think the Angels are probably better off having not done this (now anyway) but it could work out well for the Brewers for sure. 

[Lou 42,462]

37 minutes ago, ukyah said:

i think it's pretty bad to give up a 2nd round pick and whichever int'l players you could have had for one year of a good catcher.

they're giving up the 104th pick in the draft

[beatlesrule 2,088]

Very strange decision from Grandal.

[Rico 2,153]

From 4/60 to 1/18.  Ouch!  Can he get 3/42 in his next contract?

Catchers don't age well.

[eligrba 4,856]

7 hours ago, floplag said:

Must say the Grandal thing makes zero sense to me, if im him i fire my representation yesterday.
I wanted him, we all know that, but damn thats just too much even on a one year deal.
This market is crazy.

Fire his representative? 

Adults accept responsibility for their decisions,  good and bad. 

 

[totdprods 8,370]

This was a realization that he was better off going back on the market next year without a QO. After seeing what Moustakas went through last year, this makes all the sense in the world for Grandal. 

That’s no small amount for Milwaukee either. I can’t really see them competing with the Halos on any free agents currently, possibly Moose or other FA IFs, but it might make it more difficult to pull off the rumors of the recent Bumgarner trade - which could help the Angels if they’re working on any sort of deal with any San Fran pitcher. 

Edited January 10, 2019 by totdprods

[Inside Pitch 16,700]

6 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

There may be a little bit of hyper valuing the 2nd round pick and the 500k international money on this board.  I think the Angels are probably better off having not done this (now anyway) but it could work out well for the Brewers for sure. 

There is no hyper valuing the money associated with the second round pick -- that's the bigger issue.  The changes to the draft assigning a hard slot value to each pick per spot means that losing the pick also means losing the money allocated to spend in the draft.  The Angels under Eppler have excelled at maximizing the value of their slot money.  Imo, their greatest success in the draft has been how they have spread that money around as much as who they have actually taken with the second round pick.

[Inside Pitch 16,700]

6 hours ago, Lou said:

they're giving up the 104th pick in the draft

Yep, I think its a lesser issue for them at this point of their development than it would be for us.  Sucks its only a 1 year deal but they were in a NLCS, game 7 last year and have the Cubs and Cardinals to contend with.

[Inside Pitch 16,700]

2 hours ago, Rico said:

From 4/60 to 1/18.  Ouch!  Can he get 3/42 in his next contract?

Catchers don't age well.

I'm ignorant of the rules regarding qualifying offers but I think minus that obstacle he probably gets 3/42 pretty easy.   Gotta figure playing in Milwaukee will do more to help his offense or mask decline than all those games in NL West parks.

[totdprods 8,370]

6 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I'm ignorant of the rules regarding qualifying offers but I think minus that obstacle he probably gets 3/42 pretty easy.   Gotta figure playing in Milwaukee will do more to help his offense or mask decline than all those games in NL West parks.

Yup. Really think it's a good deal for both Grandal and Milwaukee. 

[floplag 3,359]

1 hour ago, eligrba said:

Fire his representative? 

Adults accept responsibility for their decisions,  good and bad. 

 

True enough, but in this case these decisions that were obviously based on what his advisers had told him.  This isnt a simply matter of deciding to have the ham sandwich over the broccoli shake.  
The final call was his, but im quite sure he based in on data provided by them unless he suddenly became an expert on the baseball finance world. 

[Stradling 27,010]

 

[floplag 3,359]

What a crazy off season, just when you thought it couldnt get weirder after last year, the hot stove says hold my beer.  
Still obviously a lot to be resolved but who would have thunk the market for the top guys would drop to such a limited scale and virtually everyone else would be looking at shorter term deals. 
Were heading for another labor problem i think and im legit fearful for the future of the game. 

[Stradling 27,010]

$10.3 billion last year

[Stradling 27,010]

What this really means is each year we will have a lot more free agents. 

[GoodTimesGoneBad 62]

Bummer on Dozier. 

[Inside Pitch 16,700]

24 minutes ago, Stradling said:

 

Nats are throwing a lot of money around.  After arbitration they figure to land just north of 200 mil and there is still talk Harper may be coming back...   

[totdprods 8,370]

Dozier going to the Nats might start shaking up the 2B/IF FA market some. They were the clear 'big spenders with a need' for that position in FA. Could start to see some things happening with guys like Marwin, Lowrie, Harrison, LeMahieu, Cabrera, Forsythe, etc., and I believe the Angels are at least eyeing 2B/3B options still in case they find an opportunity.

Edited January 10, 2019 by totdprods

[Inside Pitch 16,700]

Dozier...

2018 -- .215/.305/.391--.696

I get his recent history is much better than that...  but age 32 season and plays a position where it's commonplace to see massive cratering in performance...  Dozier's below the old 1250 mark that people used to view as the danger zone but still.  

My guess it's an example of another team willing to pay more to go one year than be stuck with a guy. 

Wonder if this will become the new normal for FA's above age 30...

[totdprods 8,370]

3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Dozier...

2018 -- .215/.305/.391--.696

I get his recent history is much better than that...  but age 32 season and plays a position where it's commonplace to see massive cratering in performance...  Dozier's below the old 1250 mark that people used to view as the danger zone but still.  

My guess it's an example of another team willing to pay more to go one year than be stuck with a guy. 

Wonder if this will become the new normal for FA's above age 30...

I had thrown him out as an option back in November, and included some of this data...I think it's fair to say last year was the first year of a true decline, but he also suffered a bit from bad luck, and likely had to adjust more in-season than he has in years. 

FWIW...
His BAbip was a career low last season (.240 vs. .277 since he became a full-time hitter, 2nd season)
His strikeout % last year was 20.4% - three year's prior? 20.3%. 
BB% was 11.1% last year - the exact same as the year before, and a good bit higher than two seasons before that '15-'16 when he posted 8.8%
XBH dipped - 8.4%, after peaking at 10.5% his three years' prior. Still above MLB average of 7.7%.
His strikes looking went up 3%, his strikes swinging went down 2%.

My take is he's starting to lose some power, and opposing pitchers were much more willing to attack him than in years past.
Other than that, a lot of his metrics for the past several years, even last season, are exceptionally consistent.
I think he's regressing, but BAbip affected him last year, and he likely was challenged for the first time in several years.
He's been consistently good enough as a hitter though, there may be hope he makes some changes and rebounds this year.

Baseball Reference has him slashing .242/.326/.452/.777 next season with 25 HR - I don't think he'll rebound that much, but maybe a .250/.325/.425/.750 with just shy of 20 HR seems right.

[Inside Pitch 16,700]

Steamer likes him to rebound too..  

My intent wasnt so much to say Dozier is bad and will continue to be bad moving forward as much as it's just to openly wonder if this may become the new norm for non superstar FA players over age 30..   In some ways it makes sense for both parties.

Just seems like the FA marketplace is changing thanks in large part to analytics.

Edited January 10, 2019 by Inside Pitch