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2018 Hot Stove League


greginpsca

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Dozier going to the Nats might start shaking up the 2B/IF FA market some. They were the clear 'big spenders with a need' for that position in FA. Could start to see some things happening with guys like Marwin, Lowrie, Harrison, LeMahieu, Cabrera, Forsythe, etc., and I believe the Angels are at least eyeing 2B/3B options still in case they find an opportunity.

Edited by totdprods
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Dozier...

2018 -- .215/.305/.391--.696

I get his recent history is much better than that...  but age 32 season and plays a position where it's commonplace to see massive cratering in performance...  Dozier's below the old 1250 mark that people used to view as the danger zone but still.  

My guess it's an example of another team willing to pay more to go one year than be stuck with a guy. 

Wonder if this will become the new normal for FA's above age 30...

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3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Dozier...

2018 -- .215/.305/.391--.696

I get his recent history is much better than that...  but age 32 season and plays a position where it's commonplace to see massive cratering in performance...  Dozier's below the old 1250 mark that people used to view as the danger zone but still.  

My guess it's an example of another team willing to pay more to go one year than be stuck with a guy. 

Wonder if this will become the new normal for FA's above age 30...

I had thrown him out as an option back in November, and included some of this data...I think it's fair to say last year was the first year of a true decline, but he also suffered a bit from bad luck, and likely had to adjust more in-season than he has in years. 

FWIW...
His BAbip was a career low last season (.240 vs. .277 since he became a full-time hitter, 2nd season)
His strikeout % last year was 20.4% - three year's prior? 20.3%. 
BB% was 11.1% last year - the exact same as the year before, and a good bit higher than two seasons before that '15-'16 when he posted 8.8%
XBH dipped - 8.4%, after peaking at 10.5% his three years' prior. Still above MLB average of 7.7%.
His strikes looking went up 3%, his strikes swinging went down 2%.

My take is he's starting to lose some power, and opposing pitchers were much more willing to attack him than in years past.
Other than that, a lot of his metrics for the past several years, even last season, are exceptionally consistent.
I think he's regressing, but BAbip affected him last year, and he likely was challenged for the first time in several years.
He's been consistently good enough as a hitter though, there may be hope he makes some changes and rebounds this year.


Baseball Reference has him slashing .242/.326/.452/.777 next season with 25 HR - I don't think he'll rebound that much, but maybe a .250/.325/.425/.750 with just shy of 20 HR seems right.

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Steamer likes him to rebound too..  

My intent wasnt so much to say Dozier is bad and will continue to be bad moving forward as much as it's just to openly wonder if this may become the new norm for non superstar FA players over age 30..   In some ways it makes sense for both parties.

Just seems like the FA marketplace is changing thanks in large part to analytics.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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8 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Steamer likes him to rebound too, but again..  

My intent wasnt so much to say Dozier is bad and will continue to be bad moving forward as much as it's just to openly wonder if this may become the new norm for non superstar FA players over age 30..   In some ways it makes sense for both parties.

Just seems like the FA marketplace is changing thanks in large part to analytics.

Sure seems a lot of these vets, at least hitters, are starting to really trend downwards significantly right around 32, pretty consistently, give or take a year. Not necessarily without value still, but from what I eyeball, there's a pretty visible drop.

There will need to be some changes come next CBA. Every team essentially now is running on similar analytics and ideologies. Too many aspects of organizational development, free agency, arbitration, control years and service time, 40-man manipulation are being exploited at worst, used as incentive or misused at best, in increasingly absolute manners that it's sure to throw off some of the balance in which this part of baseball works. 

Edited by totdprods
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8 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Sure seems a lot of these vets, at least hitters, are starting to really trend downwards significantly right around 32, pretty consistently, give or take a year. Not necessarily without value still, but from what I eyeball, there's a pretty visible drop.

There will need to be some changes come next CBA. Every team essentially now is running on similar analytics and ideologies. Too many aspects of organizational development, free agency, arbitration, control years and service time, 40-man manipulation are being exploited at worst, misused at best in increasingly absolute manners that it's sure to throw off some of the balance in which this part of baseball works. 

The owners have always refused to open their books and I doubt that changes...  but there is no denying the revenue generated is at all all time high, and the players know full well the owners are keeping an ever larger share of that revenue.  My guess is the next battle will be to expand revenue sharing to the players on some level or create some salary floor or veteran's exception type deal to protect older players...   Who knows, it's shaping up to be a shit show.

Both sides need to play nice and not try to push the costs onto fans.  SoCal has it pretty good with both LA and the Halos as far as fan cost index goes.  but, Im sure some places believe it's become harder to justify spending what it does to take a family of four to a game.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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4 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

The owners have always refused to open their books and I doubt that changes...  but there is no denying the revenue generated is at all all time high, and the players know full well the owners are keeping an ever larger share of that revenue.  My guess is the next battle will be to expand revenue sharing to the players on some level or create some salary floor or veteran's exception type deal to protect older players...   Who knows, it's shaping up to be a shit show.

Both sides need to play nice and not try to push the costs onto fans.  SoCal has it pretty good with both LA and the Halos as far as fan cost index goes.  but, Im sure some places believe it's become harder to justify spending what it does to take a family of four to a game.

Money will inevitably be the driving factor in the next round of negotiations, and every time.....every time....it's the fans that suffer, either through increased ticket prices or a player strike. 

But inevitably, I think we can probably predict some things to occur.  Chief among those will be both sides, the players union and owner digging their heels in, unwilling to budge, then the Ken Rosenthals of the business will need something to write about so they'll start throwing around the term lock-out.  This will cause hysteria among fans and lead to a metric ton of page views which only serves the media purpose.  And then right before some perceived deadline, there will be an extension granted to hammer out some details, and then finally, a day or two before the deadline, a deal will be struck and it'll look promising but be just as imperfect as the last three iterations of the CBA. 

The two sides can't just negotiate, because that makes them appear weak.  Both sides have to posture and use scare tactics, before inevitably finding their common ground.  It'd be a heck of a lot easier if they'd just sit down and do it without all the drama, but when there is a lot of money involved, stupidity reigns. 

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4 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

The owners have always refused to open their books and I doubt that changes...  but there is no denying the revenue generated is at all all time high, and the players know full well the owners are keeping an ever larger share of that revenue.  My guess is the next battle will be to expand revenue sharing to the players on some level or create some salary floor or veteran's exception type deal to protect older players...   Who knows, it's shaping up to be a shit show.

Both sides need to play nice and not try to push the costs onto fans.  SoCal has it pretty good with both LA and the Halos as far as fan cost index goes.  but, Im sure some places believe it's become harder to justify spending what it does to take a family of four to a game.

I will add that we seem to have an abundance of veteran mid-to-low level free agents that are likely to not find a home this off-season. A solution to that is MLB expansion teams. If they added two more teams to make a nice even 32, more free agents would not only find homes but many of them can play an extra year or two if they are able due to possible demand for their services. An example is the current 2B free agent and trade markets which are flush full of players that may not have a seat when the song is over (or at least be relegated to a bench role despite their ability to play full-time).

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5 minutes ago, ettin said:

I will add that we seem to have an abundance of veteran mid-to-low level free agents that are likely to not find a home this off-season. A solution to that is MLB expansion teams. If they added two more teams to make a nice even 32, more free agents would not only find homes but many of them can play an extra year or two if they are able due to possible demand for their services. An example is the current 2B free agent and trade markets which are flush full of players that may not have a seat when the song is over (or at least be relegated to a bench role despite their ability to play full-time).

That and an expansion of rosters to 26 or a baseball appropriate 27 would go a long, long way.

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2 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Crazy on lowrie with cano already acquired.  I wouldn't mind frazier if they're just dumping him.  

Was wondering that too. The Angels and Frazier's definitely spoke last offseason. He'd fit in the 2B/3B mix, and they definitely might be inclined to salary dump a bit. 

That said, if they wanted prospects and a deal could be worked out to include Lugo, Gsellman, or even unlikelier Matz/Wheeler, worth looking into as well.

Edited by totdprods
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16 hours ago, Lou said:

they're giving up the 104th pick in the draft

how is the 2nd round pick the 104th pick? the choices should be between 41-70, with the brewers pick at 66. the 104th pick is the 3rd round.

edit: did they sign a higher FA, thereby already losing their 2nd round pick? i don't remember their signings specifically.

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