OC Register: Angels Offseason Options: J.A. Happ

[AngelsWin.com]

(This is the latest in a series of quick profiles on players who fit for the Angels to add over the winter. They are purely “informed speculation,” based on what we know about the Angels’ roster needs along with General Manager Billy Eppler’s preferences and history. We’ll have a new one every weekday, until the GM Meetings, which are the unofficial start of the hot stove season.)

J.A. Happ, LHP, New York Yankees

The basics: Without much fanfare, Happ has fashioned a solid career. His career ERA is 3.90 over 12 years, including a 20-4 season in 2016. He spent most of his career with the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays, with cameos with the Houston Astros and Yankees. Happ just turned 36.

2018 season: Not long after getting the first All-Star nod of his career, Happ was traded from the Blue Jays to Yankees. He posted a 3.65 ERA in 31 starts between the two teams. His 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings were a career high.

Contract status: Happ is a free agent, after making $13 million in 2018.

Why he makes sense: After having some injury troubles earlier in his career, Happ has averaged 29 starts over the past five years. He also has a 3.62 ERA in that time, pitching in the tough American League East. He could be even better in the more spacious parks of the AL West. Last season, Happ also had 3.78 strikeouts per walk, a career-best. Because of Happ’s age, most teams are probably going to be looking at him for one- or two-year deals, which could be just the sort of short term space-filler the Angels need while they wait for Shohei Ohtani to come back or some of their prospects to develop.

Why he doesn’t: Even though Happ won’t require a long-term deal, he won’t be cheap. He is hitting free agency after one of his best seasons, one in which he made $13 million. It seems likely he’ll get $15 million or more per season, which may be too much for the Angels to gamble on someone who will be 36. If they signed Happ, he might be the only significant addition to the rotation.

Previous players: C J.T. Realmuto, RHP Nate Eovaldi, RHP Sonny Gray, LHP Patrick Corbin, LHP CC Sabathia, UT Daniel Descalso, RHP Julio Teheran, LHP Gio Gonzalez, UT Marwin Gonzalez.

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[Inside Pitch]

Eovaldi is my favorite, but Happ probably fits Eppler's mold of reliable SP more than anyone else.   He's 35...  So older but possibly the most consistent pitcher available 2015-2018.

[ettin]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Eovaldi is my favorite, but Happ probably fits Eppler's mold of reliable SP more than anyone else.   He's 35...  So older but possibly the most consistent pitcher available 2015-2018.

Fully agree with this statement (and it is reflected in the Primer Series too! ). Happ would be a nice fall-back option for Eppler if he strikes out on Eovaldi or some other trade targets.

[DMVol]

Evoldi would certainly cost more and tie you down for more years....if Eppler wants a short term bridge, Happ might fit better....

[hangin n wangin]

I also want Eovaldi. Just a nasty man.

But I wouldn't mind Happ as a second option. 

He would most likely get a short term deal, he strikes out guys, and has put up some good ERA's in recent years playing in a difficult division.

He would seem to benefit pitching around half of his games in Anaheim. Either that or he gets free Tommy John Surgery on us so he could resume his career elsewhere.

[Second Base]

When it comes to these acquisitions, I guess for me I'd need to identify the problem first. 

Does the Angels rotation lack upside but need depth, or does it simply need depth because the upside is enough?  Or is it both?  And whichever one it is, is this a problem that can be solved internally over time or is this an issue that will need help from beyond the organization?

There seems to be a fair amount of disagreement regarding this.  Personally, I think the issue is limited to upside only.  The Angels have enough depth on the mound.  Could they use more?  Yes, definitely.  But given their current prospect depth and Billy Eppler's proven ability to unearth quality pitchers in unexpected places, I think depth isn't an issue at all.  Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Shoemaker, Pena, Tropeano, Canning, Suarez and Sandoval should be able to get them by for at least half the season until the trade deadline comes, then they'll have a more suitable read on all of it. 

But I do think there's a problem with upside.  Skaggs and Heaney are what I'd regard to be #3/#4 starters, and the rest are #5 starters.  Now I think part of this will be negated over time because Shohei Ohtani will be back in 2020 and Griffin Canning is going to be a solid #3 starter.  Plus Aaron Hernandez sounds like he'll be a solid #3/4 starter as well. But the Angels would need all of those to turn out just right to have the rotation they need. 

There's no room for error.

I think the Angels really only need one, very good starter, but they need to get this pitcher without spending 30 million on him.  Preferably more like 15 million because there are a lot of other holes in the roster to fix in my opinion, like RF, 1B, C and 2B/3B.  I think Nate Eovaldi is definitely a potential solution, because the upside is evident and he'll cost less than he might a year from now.  But J.A. Happ could be a darkhorse answer.  He's been awfully good pitching in the AL East.  You get him away from there and he might surprise you. 

 

[jsnpritchett]

1 hour ago, hangin n wangin said:

I also want Eovaldi. Just a nasty man.

 

Everyone talks about his "stuff," but it doesn't seem to actually translate into great results.  It's very odd.  For someone who throws as hard as he does, he gives up a lot of hits and doesn't strike out all that many people, all things being considered.  He's a mystery to me.

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

When it comes to these acquisitions, I guess for me I'd need to identify the problem first. 

Does the Angels rotation lack upside but need depth, or does it simply need depth because the upside is enough?  Or is it both?  And whichever one it is, is this a problem that can be solved internally over time or is this an issue that will need help from beyond the organization?

There seems to be a fair amount of disagreement regarding this.  Personally, I think the issue is limited to upside only.  The Angels have enough depth on the mound.  Could they use more?  Yes, definitely.  But given their current prospect depth and Billy Eppler's proven ability to unearth quality pitchers in unexpected places, I think depth isn't an issue at all.  Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Shoemaker, Pena, Tropeano, Canning, Suarez and Sandoval should be able to get them by for at least half the season until the trade deadline comes, then they'll have a more suitable read on all of it. 

But I do think there's a problem with upside.  Skaggs and Heaney are what I'd regard to be #3/#4 starters, and the rest are #5 starters.  Now I think part of this will be negated over time because Shohei Ohtani will be back in 2020 and Griffin Canning is going to be a solid #3 starter.  Plus Aaron Hernandez sounds like he'll be a solid #3/4 starter as well. But the Angels would need all of those to turn out just right to have the rotation they need. 

There's no room for error.

I think the Angels really only need one, very good starter, but they need to get this pitcher without spending 30 million on him.  Preferably more like 15 million because there are a lot of other holes in the roster to fix in my opinion, like RF, 1B, C and 2B/3B.  I think Nate Eovaldi is definitely a potential solution, because the upside is evident and he'll cost less than he might a year from now.  But J.A. Happ could be a darkhorse answer.  He's been awfully good pitching in the AL East.  You get him away from there and he might surprise you. 

 

I think it's pretty tough to get legit "upside" from outside the organization, unless you are talking about Felix Peña type moves, where you get someone for nothing and turn him into something.

You just aren't going to get top pitching prospects or 25-27 year old pitchers in their prime unless you're trading away established players or a bunch of prospects, and the Angels aren't in position to do either.

So you're left to buy low on guys (Sonny Gray) or get free agents, who almost never have upside because they're almost all on the other side of 30 and/or have already peaked.

I think Eppler's focus is on guys who will be major league pitchers that have a track record of taking the ball. The Angels just can't expect to be any good when they are down to their 10th or 11th starter. I think, in general, you're better off having No. 2, 3 and 4 starters pitching 140 games a year than you are having a No. 1 pitch 30 games, but No. 7s and 8's pitching 50 games.

 

[hangin n wangin]

49 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Everyone talks about his "stuff," but it doesn't seem to actually translate into great results.  It's very odd.  For someone who throws as hard as he does, he gives up a lot of hits and doesn't strike out all that many people, all things being considered.  He's a mystery to me.

Agreed. He has a very unflattering career 4.16 ERA and before this year, pretty low strike out rates for someone with the movement and velocity that he has. But this past year he had an ERA in the high 3's and a k/9 rate of 8.19 and a 2.2 fWAR in only 111 innings. Plus, the stuff was there. He's only 28 years and I think he has more upside more than anyone else available. I see potential for more than what he did last year, especially if he came to the AL West. 

But I definitely understand the skepticism. Before this year, I was pretty bullish on him too.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Everyone talks about his "stuff," but it doesn't seem to actually translate into great results.  It's very odd.  For someone who throws as hard as he does, he gives up a lot of hits and doesn't strike out all that many people, all things being considered.  He's a mystery to me.

Some of that is that has to do with how he's been used IMO.   When he came up he was a 4 pitch guy alll of which flashed plus potential but none of which were really refined.  Then after the trade to the Marlins he was throwing 70% fastballs, just blowing it by people -- it worked initially but then people knew to wait for it and he (or his coaches) started tinkering.   There wasn't a lot of consistency at that point other than he continued to throw hard -- but year to year he seemed to be throwing different sets of pitches and again, no real consistency.  The big jump forward came last year when he added a cutter..   His FB usage is down around 40% but he's throwing 30% cutters, while still featuring a splitter.... the end result is they can't sit dead red anymore.

The dude can go at people with a FB Cutter Splitter combo that range between 98 and 88 MPH, all feature different movement too which makes the fact that they all (85% of his pitches), look exactly the same coming out of his hand...    He could probably drop either of his breaking pitches and see his performance spike...    

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, hangin n wangin said:

But I definitely understand the skepticism. Before this year, I was pretty bullish on him too.

I actually had argued the Angels should have given him the deal TB did before the Rays did it.  IMO they should do it with Richards as well.    But Eovaldi was always better than his ERA showed.   The big risk is he's on TJ number two.   But the evolution of the cutter has made his FB an even better pitch.