OC Register: Angels Offseason Options: Gio Gonzalez

[AngelsWin.com]

(This is the latest in a series of quick profiles on players who fit for the Angels to add over the winter. They are purely “informed speculation,” based on what we know about the Angels’ roster needs along with General Manager Billy Eppler’s preferences and history. We’ll have a new one every weekday, until the GM Meetings, which are the unofficial start of the hot stove season.)

GIO GONZALEZ, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers

The basics: Gonzalez has been one of baseball’s most consistent, if not spectacular, performers during an 11-year career that has included two All-Star appearances and two top-six Cy Young finishes. He will pitch next season at age 33.

2018 season: Gonzalez had a 4.21 ERA, mostly with the Washington Nationals before finishing with the Brewers. He made his customary 32 starts, the eighth time he’d hit 30. It was just his second time in nine seasons his ERA had been over 4.00, although the previous time was in 2016.

Contract status: Gonzalez is a free agent, coming off a seven-year, $65.5 million deal. He made $12 million in 2018.

Why he makes sense: By now you’ve probably picked up on the theme of durability, which was also one of the traits shown by Julio Teheran and CC Sabathia. Gonzalez fits between those two in terms of age. He’s also a free agent, so he won’t cost any talent, as Teheran would. The most attractive element of Gonzalez’s resume is he’s been a workhorse. He has averaged 31 starts and 187 innings over the last nine years. They’ve been mostly quality innings, too. As recently as 2017, he posted a 2.96 ERA in 201 innings. His career ERA is 3.69. By contrast, Patrick Corbin’s is 3.91. But Gonzalez is older, and coming off a down year, so he is going to cost a fraction of what it takes to get Corbin. A deal with Gonzalez would perhaps leave enough room for adding a second starting pitcher. A Gonzalez deal could be something like two years, at $10 million per year. Gonzalez certainly isn’t an ace, but he is a major league caliber pitcher who takes the ball every turn, which could help the Angels avoid some of the issues they’ve had scraping the Triple-A barrel to find starters.

Why he doesn’t: Although he hasn’t had many below-average years in his career, two of them have come in the last three years, so that’s a red flag. Also, his strikeout-to-walk ratio this season was another career-worst, perhaps another reason for caution.

Previous players: C J.T. Realmuto, RHP Nate Eovaldi, RHP Sonny Gray, LHP Patrick Corbin, LHP CC Sabathia, UT Daniel Descalso, RHP Julio Teheran.

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[Angel Oracle]

2016-2018 seems to point to number of innings pitched starting to catch up to him?

Maybe on a one year plus team option year deal, but nothing beyond that.

[Second Base]

I'd really like this signing to happen. He's sprinkled in some amazing seasons around those more average-ish seasons, so there's the upside that his pitches like a top of the rotation starter. He's cost-effective, won't cost a draft pick and you don't have to worry about the deal turning south on you the way you do with other free agent pitchers. This is the guy I'd target. If the Angels can get him at 10 million a year, that would leave them open to sign another pitcher at 15-20 million a year. That's the kind of range I'd expect Dallas Keuchel to be around, or perhaps Hyun-Jin Ryu on the lower end of that spectrum.

If you can combine Gonzalez and Keuchel just as an example, with Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs and Jaime Barria, then suddenly you're looking at a roux of guys that should all be able to go 150+ innings.

And then fast-forward to 2020, if this rotation has Ohtani, Keuchel, Gonzalez, Canning, Skaggs, Heaney and Barria, then suddenly you're looking at more upside than any offense can handle for an extended period of time. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Nathan Eovaldi?

[disarcina]

Gio Gonzalez is a veteran MLB starter -- didn't he start his career with Oakland?

I remember him best with Washington and part of a vaunted rotation that wasn't able to get the Nationals to the promised land of the W/S.

Gonzalez seems to have spent a lot of time on the DL with his various teams. His durability seems an issue.

He's a good pick up but I think any team who signs him will be over-paying for his past performance (more promise than performance) and experience.

but -- he has a history of pitching some quality starts.......seen some real gems from him.

I remember a few years back when he was with the Nationals - I attended two games of a three game series vs. the Giants at AT&T and had seats right on the rail of the Nats bull pen - saw Gonzalez warm up with a front row view.........the Nats vaunted staff got hit hard by the SF Giants the entire series -- and the Giants then weren't and still aren't a very offense oriented team.

[Second Base]

48 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Nathan Eovaldi?

I like him too.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

I pick a 1a and 1b looking at Keuchel and Gonzalez.

I'm more concerned of having 4 lefties in the rotation that are seemingly the same pitcher. When you line up Skaggs, Heaney, Keuchel and Gonzalez together. At which point you place Barria in the 5th spot and there is no breakup of the same pitcher 1-4.

I would look for a right power arm in either Eovaldi or a trade to slip in the 2nd spot in this scenario.

Just an opinion.

[Angel Oracle]

13 hours ago, disarcina said:

Gio Gonzalez is a veteran MLB starter -- didn't he start his career with Oakland?

I remember him best with Washington and part of a vaunted rotation that wasn't able to get the Nationals to the promised land of the W/S.

Gonzalez seems to have spent a lot of time on the DL with his various teams. His durability seems an issue.

He's a good pick up but I think any team who signs him will be over-paying for his past performance (more promise than performance) and experience.

but -- he has a history of pitching some quality starts.......seen some real gems from him.

I remember a few years back when he was with the Nationals - I attended two games of a three game series vs. the Giants at AT&T and had seats right on the rail of the Nats bull pen - saw Gonzalez warm up with a front row view.........the Nats vaunted staff got hit hard by the SF Giants the entire series -- and the Giants then weren't and still aren't a very offense oriented team.

That has actually been the least of the worries.   In eight of the previous nine seasons, he made at least 31 starts.

The main thing is his declining stats in almost every subsequent season (aside from 2017), after a 3rd place NL Cy Young finish in 2012.   His 1,843 career MLB innings could mean even further decline coming down the road.

I would be willing to bring him in on a 1 year + 1 team option year deal to regain his value.   Although being age 33 in 2019 could minimize that anyway, ultimately.  

[Hubs]

14 hours ago, disarcina said:

Gonzalez seems to have spent a lot of time on the DL with his various teams. His durability seems an issue.
 

Gonzalez has been the most durable starter I can think of. I don't know who you are thinking of Tim, but I think you must be mixed up.

He started his major league career in the Oakland organization, as you mentioned. He made 22 starts in the minors in 2008, and 7 in the majors and also pitched out of the pen. In 2009, he made 12 starts in the minors and 17 in the majors and also worked out of the pen. IN 2010, he made 33 starts in the majors with Oakland, then made 32 in every year after that except one, 2014 when he had some minor shoulder trouble.

If people think he's going to sign for one year, they are nuts, I bet he gets 3 / 42 or even 4 /60.

[Angel Oracle]

4 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Gonzalez has been the most durable starter I can think of. I don't know who you are thinking of Tim, but I think you must be mixed up.

He started his major league career in the Oakland organization, as you mentioned. He made 22 starts in the minors in 2008, and 7 in the majors and also pitched out of the pen. In 2009, he made 12 starts in the minors and 17 in the majors and also worked out of the pen. IN 2010, he made 33 starts in the majors with Oakland, then made 32 in every year after that except one, 2014 when he had some minor shoulder trouble.

If people think he's going to sign for one year, they are nuts, I bet he gets 3 / 42 or even 4 /60.

+1, except for the last sentence

He's struggled two of the past 3 seasons in Washington, while pitching in a neutral park half of the time.   He might well get 3 years/$42 million from someone, but I can't see the Halos doing it as he is 33 in 2019 with approaching 2,000 MLB innings pitched.

[ScruffytheJanitor]

I second the Eovaldi comments-- with the added bit that I think he could become a top-5 closer if he wanted to.

[Hubs]

Getting a guy like Gonzalez or Keuchel, and then also trading for a guy like Gray makes a lot of sense to me.

I think they roll with the pen as is, knowing that they have Meyer and also possibly Ramirez for later in the season, and also a pretty solid core in Buttrey, Parker, Alvarez, Bedrosian, Robles, Anderson, Cole, as well as Pena possibly and N. Ramirez. Maybe they add one regular proven guy.

Say you spend 14 in the first year on one of those two free agent types, and then trade for Gray, who is due say 9M, that's 23 M of the 30-40 they have to spend.

Rolling with the young catcher duo seems risky, but it would save money over Ramos or Grandal.

Then they can spend a bit on the offense, say with McCutchen.

I like that team.