Does a Kipnis/Calhoun Swap Make Sense?

[vladdy#27]

I was reading this and it got me thinking of a Calhoun for Kipnis swap

Quote

In a look at what the Indians’ lineup could look like in 2019, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that “serious consideration” is being given to the idea of deploying Yandy Diaz as a regular third baseman.  With Diaz at the hot corner, All-Star Jose Ramirez would move back to second base while Jason Kipnis shifted into a left field role.

Calhoun gives them a better defensive outfielder and similar offensive production, Calhoun is also a little bit cheaper.
Kipnis gives us versatility as he can play 2B, or make a start here or there in the OF. Have Kipnis start the season as the starting 2B. One of Cozart/Fletcher as the starting 3B and the other as the utility infielder. Then sign Jay or someone similar that we could put in the leadoff spot. 

Contracts are nearly identical. Kipnis 1 year/14.6M (16.5M Team Option 2.5M Buyout). Calhoun 1 year/10.5M (14M Team Option 1M Buyout) 

[Tank]

without taking a look at any of his stats, if the indians were interested in making that deal, i'd have to seriously consider it. but on it's face it seems greatly tilted in the angels favor and probably would get laughed at by the cleveland GM.

 

[vladdy#27]

7 minutes ago, Tank said:

without taking a look at any of his stats, if the indians were interested in making that deal, i'd have to seriously consider it. but on it's face it seems greatly tilted in the angels favor and probably would get laughed at by the cleveland GM.

 

Last season

Kipnis .230/.315/.389 HR 18 WAR 1.6 OPS+ 89
Calhoun .208/.283/.369 HR 19 WAR 0.7 OPS+ 80

Last 2 seasons

Kipnis .231/.306/.398 HR 30 WAR 2.0 OPS+ 86
Calhoun .227/.310/.381 HR 38 WAR 2.8 OPS+ 89

Kipnis was a little better in 2018, but he was injured and Calhoun performed better in 2017. Kipnis is also 5.5M more expensive than Calhoun (if both options are not exercised) so if they are giving up more value, they are basically getting back financial compensation as well

[tdawg87]

Doesn't really make sense for either team, tbh. 

Kipnis at his best = Kole at his best. If Kipnis is playing 2nd, he could be an upgrade, but we might as well just go with Fletcher. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

I think penciling in Cozart at third again is a mistake. We should be looking for a 3B/1B hybrid guy and putting Cozart in the super utility role (but playing most days)

[Blarg]

Why would the Angels want to make a lateral move for a player that costs more? And $4 million is significantly more, that's a solid reliever you won't be signing for the bullpen. You gain nothing offensively and lose on defense. It's just so Dipoto of a deal. 

[Second Base]

I'd make that deal in a heartbeat! That said, I don't think it's any improvement in the long run, and I'm hoping the Angels making some deals with an eye on 2020 and beyond. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

6 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I'd make that deal in a heartbeat! That said, I don't think it's any improvement in the long run, and I'm hoping the Angels making some deals with an eye on 2020 and beyond. 

Make the deal? Or it makes no improvement?

 

Both sides.

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Make the deal? Or it makes no improvement?

 

Both sides.

Make the deal if there aren't better ones to make is what I'm trying to say.

[Stradling]

That is confusing to me.  So you trust Hermosillo to outperform Kole more than you trust Cozart or Fletcher to outperform Kipnis?

[Fish Oil]

I would rather keep Calhoun. Our infield seems set at the moment, so why create a hole in the outfield to create infield depth?

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

Make the deal if there aren't better ones to make is what I'm trying to say.

so make the deal just so it looks like you're doing something...

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

so make the deal just so it looks like you're doing something...

I didn't even come close to saying that. 

[UndertheHalo]

Seems like a lateral move in terms of talent that will cost the Angels more money.  I really don’t get why I keep seeing Hermosillo pop up as a guy that needs to play.  Seems like a 4th outfielder at best.

[floplag]

We have already proven we dont have a replacement for Calhoun currently, it would seem to me this move would create a hole, not fill one. 

[Docwaukee]

we actually have more IF depth on or ready to be on the major league roster than we do legit OF depth.  So moving Calhoun right now is actually a problem unless you can replace him via a free agent which may be money poorly spent.  There's a much better chance that Kole rebounds than there is of him being the first half guy.  Don't sell low.  

Kole is a good deadline candidate actually.  If he rebounds to his career avg, he'll be a nice move for a playoff team in that he's a tremendous defender, solid bat when he's on, and he's not super expensive with an option year that isn't horrible if you think he's going to be slightly above league avg as a hitter.  

13 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I think penciling in Cozart at third again is a mistake. We should be looking for a 3B/1B hybrid guy and putting Cozart in the super utility role (but playing most days)

The most important player of this off season is who we get to play 1b/3b or 1b/OF or 1b/2b spot if there is any chance we win in 2019.   Albert needs to be marginalized.  His presence not only hurts us in the lineup, but it has hurt in terms of who else we keep on our roster.  I like rengifo as a prospect, but we traded CJ Cron due to a lack of versatility.  He had a 123 ops+ last year which was better than Upton.  

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

Seems like a lateral move in terms of talent that will cost the Angels more money.  I really don’t get why I keep seeing Hermosillo pop up as a guy that needs to play.  Seems like a 4th outfielder at best.

Hermosillo doesn't need to play, but it's also WAY too soon to write him off as a 4th OF at best.  It was his first taste of major league baseball and he definitely struggled.  But he just finished his age 23 season.  Most guys don't even make it to the majors by 23.  Whose to say that by the time he's 25 or 26, he won't be a pretty solid starter in the major leagues.  Hr definitely has the speed, pop and plate discipline to do it.  Though it's clear that he's never seen anything close to a major league quality slider before, because once he was promoted, that pitch gave him fits.  He's also too pull happy right now.  He needs to continue to work on using the whole field. 

Not a finished product, but far too early to write him off. 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

We have already proven we dont have a replacement for Calhoun currently, it would seem to me this move would create a hole, not fill one. 

I think my argument is that it would be easy to find a replacement for Calhoun in free agency.  We could pay Jon Jay 5 million and he'd outproduce Calhoun.  That doesn't mean we need to make a deal for Jason Kipnis.....just that there are still many ways to improve this team and getting a new RF is an easy one. 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

we actually have more IF depth on or ready to be on the major league roster than we do legit OF depth.  So moving Calhoun right now is actually a problem unless you can replace him via a free agent which may be money poorly spent.  There's a much better chance that Kole rebounds than there is of him being the first half guy.  Don't sell low.  

Kole is a good deadline candidate actually.  If he rebounds to his career avg, he'll be a nice move for a playoff team in that he's a tremendous defender, solid bat when he's on, and he's not super expensive with an option year that isn't horrible if you think he's going to be slightly above league avg as a hitter.  

The most important player of this off season is who we get to play 1b/3b or 1b/OF or 1b/2b spot if there is any chance we win in 2019.   Albert needs to be marginalized.  His presence not only hurts us in the lineup, but it has hurt in terms of who else we keep on our roster.  I like rengifo as a prospect, but we traded CJ Cron due to a lack of versatility.  He had a 123 ops+ last year which was better than Upton.  

I think in 2019, Zack Cozart will himself be a starter, but by the time 2020 rolls around, he could be the utility player this team needs.  Defense isn't the problem for him, he's clearly a good defensive SS and 2B already and he showed in his short time that he has the athleticism to play 3B, though not the refinement quite yet.  The only reason I bring this up is because it directly impacts both David Fletcher and Luis Rengifo.  If either of them fail to hit enough at the major league level to grab a starting spot, their path to utility infielder may be blocked for the next couple years. 

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

That is confusing to me.  So you trust Hermosillo to outperform Kole more than you trust Cozart or Fletcher to outperform Kipnis?

No.  I trust that replacing Calhoun in free agency would be a relatively inexpensive and easy venture. I'm not advocating we trade for Kipnis, not unless there aren't any other ways to improve.  I'm saying that finding a new RF to outproduce Calhoun wouldn't be difficult at all. 

[Blarg]

Adell will be the starting right fielder in 2020. You are wasting resources trading for one year of Kipnis. It's activity over achievement trading.

[floplag]

5 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Adell will be the starting right fielder in 2020. You are wasting resources trading for one year of Kipnis. It's activity over achievement trading.

Maybe, perhaps likely, but will be what we hope he will?
And it isnt wasting resource if the results for 19 are improved.
I dont l;ike this deal but we cant not do something to help 19 with that hope in mind that 20 will be better.  Is that really what we are about now?

[Stradling]

16 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

No.  I trust that replacing Calhoun in free agency would be a relatively inexpensive and easy venture. I'm not advocating we trade for Kipnis, not unless there aren't any other ways to improve.  I'm saying that finding a new RF to outproduce Calhoun wouldn't be difficult at all. 

ok that makes more sense.

[WeatherWonk]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

we actually have more IF depth on or ready to be on the major league roster than we do legit OF depth.  So moving Calhoun right now is actually a problem unless you can replace him via a free agent which may be money poorly spent.  There's a much better chance that Kole rebounds than there is of him being the first half guy.  Don't sell low.  

Kole is a good deadline candidate actually.  If he rebounds to his career avg, he'll be a nice move for a playoff team in that he's a tremendous defender, solid bat when he's on, and he's not super expensive with an option year that isn't horrible if you think he's going to be slightly above league avg as a hitter.  

The most important player of this off season is who we get to play 1b/3b or 1b/OF or 1b/2b spot if there is any chance we win in 2019.   Albert needs to be marginalized.  His presence not only hurts us in the lineup, but it has hurt in terms of who else we keep on our roster.  I like rengifo as a prospect, but we traded CJ Cron due to a lack of versatility.  He had a 123 ops+ last year which was better than Upton.  

Actually, the opposite is more likely. In his past twelve months of play, Calhoun has hit below .255 in eight of those months. He has hit below .200 in five of those eight months. 

The recent odds say he will hit below .255 in four months of 2019 and below .200 for 2.5 of those four months. Not counting any age regression, which looks like it has already taken hold.

Can we really afford that again, with Albert in the lineup.? And with two relatively unproven offensive entities at 3rd and 2nd with Cozart and Fletcher?

Arte needs to go big or go home. This team needs much more than a Trout extension that takes HIM into his potential declining years.

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, WeatherWonk said:

Actually, the opposite is more likely. In his past twelve months of play, Calhoun has hit below .255 in eight of those months. He has hit below .200 in five of those eight months. 

The recent odds say he will hit below .255 in four months of 2019 and below .200 for 2.5 of those four months. Not counting any age regression, which looks like it has already taken hold.

Can we really afford that again, with Albert in the lineup.? And with two relatively unproven offensive entities at 3rd and 2nd with Cozart and Fletcher?

Arte needs to go big or go home. This team needs much more than a Trout extension that takes HIM into his potential declining years.

While you are 100% correct on Calhoun, I don't believe "going big" is that necessary. The biggest thing this team should do is extend Mike Trout. The rest, is boring and sucks because it requires patience, but Eppler just needs to let those kids on the farm develop and build an inexpensive juggernaut. 

Need a new RF? How about the best outfield prospect in baseball in Jo Adell? Not only does he give us elite defense, but he gives you a legit shot at 30/30.

Need a 2B? Jahmai Jones is 20 years old, has reached AA already, is tearing it up in the AFL right now and has 20/20 potential. 

Need pitching? Look not further than Griffin Canning. Top 100 prospect, So Cal product, top of the rotation potential, already in AAA. Then there's Jose Suarez and Pat Sandoval to consider too. Both have limited upside but look major league ready at a young age.  Then there's Aaron Hernandez who they just drafted. He'll probably make his way to AA in his first season of pro ball and has Garrett Richards type of upside. 

Need a first baseman? Matt Thaiss is still developing, but right now he projects to be a league average option, which would be a huge upgrade over Pujols. 

Third baseman? Taylor Ward is worth paying attention to. He'll probably return to AAA but the upside is there. Plus there's Kevin Maitan and Jeremiah Jackson down at the lower levels, both of which have star potential. 

In the outfield there's a whole collection of upside plays in Brandon Marsh, Jordyn Adams, Trent Deveaux and D'Shawn Knowles. 

Eppler has done such an amazing job building up this great farm of ours now.  All the Angels need to do is be patient and let it pay dividends. Not all those guys will pan out, but we have enough of them that quite a few will, and the Angels will be dangerous and inexpensive when that happens.