OC Register: Angels Offseason Options: Patrick Corbin

[AngelsWin.com]

(This is the latest in a series of quick profiles on players who fit for the Angels to add over the winter. They are purely “informed speculation,” based on what we know about the Angels’ roster needs along with General Manager Billy Eppler’s preferences and history. We’ll have a new one every weekday, until the GM Meetings, which are the unofficial start of the hot stove season.)

PATRICK CORBIN, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

The basics: Corbin is coming off his best season at age 28. The Angels originally drafted Corbin, but traded him – along with Tyler Skaggs – to Arizona for Dan Haren in 2010.

2018 season: Corbin posted a 3.15 ERA and pitched exactly 200 innings, earning an All-Star berth. He struck out 246 and walked 48.

Contract stats: Corbin is a free agent, and he’s likely to be given a qualifying offer, meaning the Angels would have to surrender their second-round pick if they signed him. He made $7.5 million last year and could triple that this winter. Assuming that Clayton Kershaw doesn’t use his opt-out, Corbin and Dallas Keuchel would be the clear top starting pitchers on the market. Although Keuchel has a better track record, Corbin was better this year and is 18 months younger.

Why he makes sense: The Angels need pitching, and Corbin is probably the dream acquisition for many fans. Durability is one of the most important qualities the Angels are looking for, and over the last two years, only three pitchers have made more starts than’s Corbin’s 65. He had Tommy John surgery a few years ago, so his arm ought to be sound. Eppler likes strikeouts, and Corbin struck out 11.1 hitters per nine innings this season. He allowed just 15 homers, which is exceptional considering he pitched in a relatively tough pitchers’ park in Arizona.

Why he doesn’t: As perhaps the most attractive starting pitcher on the market, Corbin is going to demand a significant contract. It seems unlikely he could be had for anything less than five years and perhaps $100 million. Aside from the long-term risk of that type of contract, there is the short-term issue of allocating so much of the limited room they have in the 2019 payroll to one player. Also, Corbin grew up in New York and has reportedly always dreamed of pitching for the Yankees. The Yankees are going to have some holes in their rotation, so they figure to be involved in the bidding.

Previous players: C J.T. Realmuto, RHP Nate Eovaldi, RHP Sonny Gray.

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[greginpsca]

I hear he is a lock to become a Yankee.

 

[floplag]

What i like:  well whats not to really
What i dont, one guy getting 2/3 of our available funds, doesnt leave much to address anything else of substance. 

[Angel Oracle]

42 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

I hear he is a lock to become a Yankee.

 

A lefty pitching in New Skankee Stadium with that deeper than normal LF/LCF?    Seems like a perfect match for the Kevin Owens lookalike. 

Meanwhile, the Halos' Seth Rollins lookalike continues to have shoulder problems, seemingly ever since being acquired from the Astros FOUR years ago.    A whopping 301 innings of work (MLB and MiLB combined) in FOUR years?    Stick a fork in him?

[wopphil]

I'd love to sign him, but fully expect he will command 6/130 or more.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Nathan Eovaldi is a free agent and has looked good today in Houston... Should be a much cheaper option.

[Dtwncbad]

37 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I'd love to sign him, but fully expect he will command 6/130 or more.

Corbin will get 4/90 or 5/105.

[Angel Oracle]

Eovaldi won't require giving up a draft pick.

[wopphil]

2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Corbin will get 4/90 or 5/105.

Wanna bet? He is going to sign for 6/136, on December 11. Not sure with which team. 

@Lou, can you bookmark this?

[Dtwncbad]

40 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Wanna bet? He is going to sign for 6/136, on December 11. Not sure with which team. 

@Lou, can you bookmark this?

Sure.  Gentlemen's bet.

I don't think Corbin will get 6 years.  I think most teams will not even want to give 5 years and will attempt to hold it to 4, with a team maybe finally caving in and giving him the 5th year to get the deal done.

I just cannot see a team giving him 6 years.  No way.

[Lou]

59 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Wanna bet? He is going to sign for 6/136, on December 11. Not sure with which team. 

@Lou, can you bookmark this?

what's a bookmarks? 

[Lou]

24 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Sure.  Gentlemen's bet.

I don't think Corbin will get 6 years.  I think most teams will not even want to give 5 years and will attempt to hold it to 4, with a team maybe finally caving in and giving him the 5th year to get the deal done.

I just cannot see a team giving him 6 years.  No way.

not even on Jermaine Jackson's birthday? 

[Docwaukee]

17 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Sure.  Gentlemen's bet.

I don't think Corbin will get 6 years.  I think most teams will not even want to give 5 years and will attempt to hold it to 4, with a team maybe finally caving in and giving him the 5th year to get the deal done.

I just cannot see a team giving him 6 years.  No way.

Agree he'll get 5.  

Darvish 6/126
Price 7/217
Greinke 6/206
Cueto 6/130
Scherzer 7/210
Lester 6/155
Tanaka 7/155
Greinke 6/147
Darvish 6/60
Sabathia 7/161
Zito 7/126

Those are all the pitcher contract for 6yrs or more since 2006.  The most recent is the disaster that is Darvish.  Corbin isn't your prototypical #1.  5/110 is what I'm thinking.  






 

[Second Base]

The end of these contracts NEVER work.  If you don't have unlimited funds like Boston, New York or LA, then you have to be very careful in free agency.  The Angels have obviously endured the dangers of free agency first hand more often than I think any team in the majors.  Gary Matthews Jr, Vernon Wells (we traded for him, but also we traded for his contract), Bobby Abreu's second contract (the one year deal was amazing, the second one was pretty bad for the team), Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton.....

Right now, that Zack Cozart deal looks pretty stupid too. 

So I'd just as soon tell Eppler to stay away from all free agents except shorter, low risk deals than to actually spend money in free agency.  I'd most certainly stay away from players that have a qualifying offer and draft pick forfeiture attached to their name. 

Just keep building the farm, investing in foreign assets, drafting well, and if necessary, play the trade market.  I know it takes a ton of patience to pull off, but it's the only way to build a perennial contender.  Eppler started this work three years ago and in two more years, the Angels will be in a very good position. 

So I'd say no on pursuing Pat Corbin. 

 

[Angel Oracle]

18 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

The end of these contracts NEVER work.  If you don't have unlimited funds like Boston, New York or LA, then you have to be very careful in free agency.  The Angels have obviously endured the dangers of free agency first hand more often than I think any team in the majors.  Gary Matthews Jr, Vernon Wells (we traded for him, but also we traded for his contract), Bobby Abreu's second contract (the one year deal was amazing, the second one was pretty bad for the team), Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton.....

Right now, that Zack Cozart deal looks pretty stupid too. 

So I'd just as soon tell Eppler to stay away from all free agents except shorter, low risk deals than to actually spend money in free agency.  I'd most certainly stay away from players that have a qualifying offer and draft pick forfeiture attached to their name. 

Just keep building the farm, investing in foreign assets, drafting well, and if necessary, play the trade market.  I know it takes a ton of patience to pull off, but it's the only way to build a perennial contender.  Eppler started this work three years ago and in two more years, the Angels will be in a very good position. 

So I'd say no on pursuing Pat Corbin. 

 

The Cardinals concur.   They are perennial contenders, and their only true foray into FA was re-signing Matt Holliday years back. 

[Docwaukee]

12 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

The end of these contracts NEVER work.  If you don't have unlimited funds like Boston, New York or LA, then you have to be very careful in free agency.  The Angels have obviously endured the dangers of free agency first hand more often than I think any team in the majors.  Gary Matthews Jr, Vernon Wells (we traded for him, but also we traded for his contract), Bobby Abreu's second contract (the one year deal was amazing, the second one was pretty bad for the team), Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton.....

Right now, that Zack Cozart deal looks pretty stupid too. 

So I'd just as soon tell Eppler to stay away from all free agents except shorter, low risk deals than to actually spend money in free agency.  I'd most certainly stay away from players that have a qualifying offer and draft pick forfeiture attached to their name. 

Just keep building the farm, investing in foreign assets, drafting well, and if necessary, play the trade market.  I know it takes a ton of patience to pull off, but it's the only way to build a perennial contender.  Eppler started this work three years ago and in two more years, the Angels will be in a very good position. 

So I'd say no on pursuing Pat Corbin. 

 

free agent signings or any contract past a players arb years are a necessary evils at some point.  Not every one of them is a bust.  Remember, Hunter and Vlad were excellent.  They can't have PTSD just because they made some poor decisions in the past.  They just need to do a good job of evaluating talent.  

 

 

[Docwaukee]

with that, Corbin does come with some risk due to his velo drop and injury history.  He could easily go back to being who he was in 2017 or completely crap the bed and end up like Jordan Zimmermann.  

I definitely don't have the stomach for a 6yr deal.

[Second Base]

13 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

free agent signings or any contract past a players arb years are a necessary evils at some point.  Not every one of them is a bust.  Remember, Hunter and Vlad were excellent.  They can't have PTSD just because they made some poor decisions in the past.  They just need to do a good job of evaluating talent.  

 

 

Free agency has been a positive experience for the Angels twice in the last 15 years.  Not PTSD doc, it's math.  

[Dtwncbad]

32 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

with that, Corbin does come with some risk due to his velo drop and injury history.  He could easily go back to being who he was in 2017 or completely crap the bed and end up like Jordan Zimmermann.  

I definitely don't have the stomach for a 6yr deal.

Nobody has the stomach for a 6 year deal for Corbin.  He isn't getting 6 years.

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

The end of these contracts NEVER work.  If you don't have unlimited funds like Boston, New York or LA, then you have to be very careful in free agency.  The Angels have obviously endured the dangers of free agency first hand more often than I think any team in the majors.  Gary Matthews Jr, Vernon Wells (we traded for him, but also we traded for his contract), Bobby Abreu's second contract (the one year deal was amazing, the second one was pretty bad for the team), Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton.....

Right now, that Zack Cozart deal looks pretty stupid too. 

So I'd just as soon tell Eppler to stay away from all free agents except shorter, low risk deals than to actually spend money in free agency.  I'd most certainly stay away from players that have a qualifying offer and draft pick forfeiture attached to their name. 

Just keep building the farm, investing in foreign assets, drafting well, and if necessary, play the trade market.  I know it takes a ton of patience to pull off, but it's the only way to build a perennial contender.  Eppler started this work three years ago and in two more years, the Angels will be in a very good position. 

So I'd say no on pursuing Pat Corbin. 

 

Scotty I get your points but what I can't reconcile in your overall position is the refusal to give up a draft pick to get a player that makes the team better, but your willingness to trade minor leaguers to get better.

That doesn't seem to make sense.

If you value the draft pick, I would think you would value the minor leaguers more. . .since the minor leaguers you need to trade to get a quality return are not going to be chumps.

The give and take is money.  For an impact player, wouldn't you rather spend a bit more money and surrender just one draft pick than save a few dollars and have to trade away MORE talent than one draft pick to land an impact player?

[Inside Pitch]

22 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Nathan Eovaldi is a free agent and has looked good today in Houston... Should be a much cheaper option.

He's my favorite among the available pitchers but the dude isn't exactly the picture of stability or health.

Edited October 17, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 10/17/2018 at 2:30 PM, Inside Pitch said:

He's my favorite among the available pitchers but the dude isn't exactly the picture of stability or health.

Which is why he may the cheapest for a team with limited space before hitting the payroll threshold. The last time he had TJ he good for 9+ years. He throws 97+ and has a nice curve ball. He looked really good against the Yankees.

Edited October 19, 2018 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[2112]

On 10/17/2018 at 9:49 AM, Scotty@AW said:

The end of these contracts NEVER work.  If you don't have unlimited funds like Boston, New York or LA, then you have to be very careful in free agency.  The Angels have obviously endured the dangers of free agency first hand more often than I think any team in the majors.  Gary Matthews Jr, Vernon Wells (we traded for him, but also we traded for his contract), Bobby Abreu's second contract (the one year deal was amazing, the second one was pretty bad for the team), Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton.....

Right now, that Zack Cozart deal looks pretty stupid too. 

So I'd just as soon tell Eppler to stay away from all free agents except shorter, low risk deals than to actually spend money in free agency.  I'd most certainly stay away from players that have a qualifying offer and draft pick forfeiture attached to their name. 

Just keep building the farm, investing in foreign assets, drafting well, and if necessary, play the trade market.  I know it takes a ton of patience to pull off, but it's the only way to build a perennial contender.  Eppler started this work three years ago and in two more years, the Angels will be in a very good position. 

So I'd say no on pursuing Pat Corbin. 

 

Weaver's contract. imho was worth it.  His arm just fell off.  Wilson's was bearable until the 5th year.  

I think if the team is in a position to contend immediately, it's worth the risk to get someone like Corbin.   This team is not in that situation.  Spending 5/90 or better on Corbin MIGHT get the team to a 3rd place finish, and still out of the wildcard. Better to use available funds to purse others.

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 10/17/2018 at 10:08 AM, Angel Oracle said:

The Cardinals concur.   They are perennial contenders, and their only true foray into FA was re-signing Matt Holliday years back. 

Which was one of the reasons pujols got mad and left.

So it was an even better FA signing than people knew at the time

[wopphil]

On 10/16/2018 at 6:48 PM, wopphil said:

Wanna bet? He is going to sign for 6/136, on December 11. Not sure with which team. 

@Lou, can you bookmark this?

I agree. Close on the date, extremely close on the dollars.