OC Register: Angels’ Shohei Ohtani in line for Rookie of the Year after late surge

[AngelsWin.com]

ANAHEIM — In April and May, Shohei Ohtani seemed like a lock to win the American League Rookie of the Year award.

Then his chances appeared to vanish in an MRI tube in June.

Now, as baseball writers prepare to cast their ballots for the award, all indications are that the Angels’ two-way star is likely to take the hardware after all.

Although the 30 actual voters — two baseball writers representing each city in the American League — are not permitted to reveal their choices before the results are announced in November, it’s possible to get a fairly strong gauge of the baseball media’s overall leaning.

National baseball writers Jon Heyman and Jayson Stark have recently published pieces declaring Ohtani their pick for the award. Also, MLB.com has been polling its writers periodically throughout the year on the awards. This week, they released results showing Ohtani was picked by 26 of 36 writers, taking the lead in the race for the first time since May.

Over the past couple weeks, we’ve been surveying writers from around the country — none of whom are actual Rookie of the Year voters this year — to get a handle on the national perception of Ohtani’s worthiness for the award.

“If he wouldn’t have gotten hurt and played the whole season, he’d have been a lock,” said Ryan Divish, who covers the Mariners for the Seattle Times.

In June, Ohtani was diagnosed with a damaged ulnar collateral ligament that sent him to the disabled list for a month and essentially ended his season as a two-way player.

Since then, he’s been exclusively a hitter, with the the exception of one 2 1/3-inning start Sept. 2 in Houston. That outing led to the discovery of further elbow damage that will lead to him having Tommy John surgery next week.

Having started on the mound nine times before the injury, Ohtani still ended up with a 3.31 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings. As a hitter, he has a .283 average with 22 homers and a .930 OPS in 355 plate appearances.

No one since Babe Ruth has hit 20 homers and started 10 games as a pitcher in the same season.

“It seems pretty cut and dried,” said John Shea, a national baseball writer from the San Francisco Chronicle. “I don’t think there’s a discussion any more. The Yankees have two good rookies who hit. The Angels have a great rookie who hits and pitches, and he did both at such a high level that it caught everybody’s eye in the industry.”

Those Yankees infielders are likely the top threats to Ohtani for the award.

Third baseman Miguel Andújar has hit .295 with 26 homers. He’s also played 145 games, coming to the plate 588 times. Andújar has finished strong — a .316 average since the All-Star break — and been a key player for a team that’s going to the playoffs.

The biggest knock on Andújar is his defense has been well below average.

Gleyber Torres has played better defense, at second and shortstop, for the Yankees. He’s hit .275 with 23 homers in 467 plate appearances.

Andújar and Torres have been the favorite for the award at various times since Ohtani got hurt.

Another sleeper candidate who will get some consideration is Joey Wendle of the Tampa Bay Rays. Wendle has played second, third and outfield for the surprising Rays, hitting .300 with a .354 on-base percentage over 533 plate appearances.

Each of the three main traditional candidates had significantly more plate appearances than Ohtani, as well as a higher batting average, more homers or both. They also played key roles on teams with winning records.

Ohtani’s supporters believe he compensates for all of that with the historic nature of what he did, as well as the pure combined value of being an above-average hitter and pitcher.

Baseball-Reference.com calculates Ohtani’s WAR at 3.9, better than Torres (3.0) and Andújar (1.9). Wendle logged a 4.4, mostly because of his defensive versatility. Ohtani’s .930 OPS is also the best, better than Andújar (.846), Torres (.825) and Wendle (.790).

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With all of that to consider, here’s a sampling of opinions of writers, who were asked how they’d evaluate the Rookie of the Year race:

Marc Carig, Yankees beat writer, The Athletic: “I think it’s so close… I’d be inclined to vote for Ohtani. But if I had a vote, I wouldn’t have much confidence about sticking with that once it came time to send in my ballot.”

Marc Topkin, Rays beat writer, Tampa Bay Times: “Ohtani had a good, solid season in a year when no rookie was that far and above. But his problem in the voting is that he didn’t have a great season. The injury time lost and the small stretches of inconsistency will cost him in that he didn’t live up to the hype. Perception may trump reality.”

Pete Abraham, Boston Red Sox beat writer, Boston Globe: “Whether it’s Wendle, Andújar or Torres, you can make a good case for a traditional rookie. All three contributed significantly to winning teams. But Ohtani was well above average as a hitter and pitcher. That’s so unusual and, to me, worthy of recognition.”

Shi Davidi, Toronto Blue Jays beat writer, Sportsnet: “What Ohtani has accomplished as a two-way player is remarkable and over a full season, he’s a slam-dunk pick, even if his numbers weren’t as impressive. My personal lean is always to reward extended durability over shorter bursts of peak performance, but I’m not sure that’s fair when you weigh the performances of Miguel Andújar or Joey Wendle against a player who’s pitched and hit at such high levels. That makes him, in my eyes, just as deserving if not more deserving.”

Divish: “You have to take into account the difficulty of what he’s doing. If he focused on one thing, would he be outstanding at one or the other? He’s really good at both. Shouldn’t two really goods make a great? I think that’s what you have to realize.”

Shea: “If you look at him as hitter, you think, ‘Man, he might just win it as a hitter, period.’ If you look at him as a pitcher, you think ‘He might win it as a pitcher, period.’ If you combine them, I think it’s a no-brainer. I don’t know what the discussion is.”

UP NEXT

Angels (RHP Jaime Barría, 10-9, 3.54) vs. A’s (RHP Mike Fiers, 12-7, 3.31), Friday, 7 p.m., Fox Sports West, KLAA (830 AM).

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[Angel Oracle]

"Marc Topkin, Rays beat writer, Tampa Bay Times: “Ohtani had a good, solid season in a year when no rookie was that far and above. But his problem in the voting is that he didn’t have a great season. The injury time lost and the small stretches of inconsistency will cost him in that he didn’t live up to the hype. Perception may trump reality.”

Say what????

Speaking of solid rookies, Barria completes a rock solid rookie season of his own on Friday night.   And, is still only 22.

[failos]

Marc Topkin can kiss my ass

[Broad Street]

Obviously Topkin is going to vote for Wendle, and I believe he's more deserving than Andujar.

[Troll Daddy]

I’m riding the Ohtani bandwagon ... luv that kid!

[Taylor]

There's a reason Marc Topkin is a beat writer for the Rays.

[Second Base]

I've tried to look at it without bias. 

Miguel Andújar has done a great job.  The batting average and numbers are great.  He's a very good hitter with good power that could develop even more.  But he's a terrible defensive third baseman that will eventually need to move across the diamond and has no plate discipline whatsoever.  So basically, he's a good ROY candidate that will eventually be a better version of C.J. Cron.  Not bad.  

Gleyber Torres has been a very good player as well.  He's a good defender pretty much anywhere on the infield, shows plate discipline beyond his years and pretty decent power.  Having said that, you take him away from the homer friendly field in New York and we see a different player entirely.  So in Yankee Stadium, he's Alex Bregman, and everywhere else he's a less powerful Marcus Semien.  It makes him an interesting player.  Definitely a starting infielder in the major leagues, but clearly not a star, at least not at age 21.  Maybe somewhere down the line, but not right now. 

Then there's Joey Wendle.  He's a 28 year old Ben Zobrist, which is insane.  This guy came out of nowhere.  He also isn't a star, but we've had a large enough sample now to see that there's clearly something there.  Regression is coming, but even after it arrives, he's next in great line of super utility players. 

And finally, Shohei Othani.  He hits for average, hits for power, gets on base, can run, and is also one of the best pitchers in the majors.  He's truly a once in a lifetime player, which is insane when you think that the Angels have TWO once in a lifetime players and still aren't even a .500 team.  The only question with Ohtani is if he can stay healthy.  Hitting and pitching is tough to do, and he has the talent to do it, but can anyone's body handle the rigors of it in the modern game?  I'm guessing we won't know the answer to that question for two or three years.  But coming into the season, the biggest question was if anyone even had the talent to do both.  That question has been answered.  Shohei Ohtani may be one of the top 10 hitters in baseball and top 10 pitchers as well, and he's in his early 20's.  

Shohei Ohtani is the Rookie of the Year.  This is a great class, and he's so good that it isn't particularly close. 

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

31 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I've tried to look at it without bias. 

Miguel Andújar has done a great job.  The batting average and numbers are great.  He's a very good hitter with good power that could develop even more.  But he's a terrible defensive third baseman that will eventually need to move across the diamond and has no plate discipline whatsoever.  So basically, he's a good ROY candidate that will eventually be a better version of C.J. Cron.  Not bad.  

Gleyber Torres has been a very good player as well.  He's a good defender pretty much anywhere on the infield, shows plate discipline beyond his years and pretty decent power.  Having said that, you take him away from the homer friendly field in New York and we see a different player entirely.  So in Yankee Stadium, he's Alex Bregman, and everywhere else he's a less powerful Marcus Semien.  It makes him an interesting player.  Definitely a starting infielder in the major leagues, but clearly not a star, at least not at age 21.  Maybe somewhere down the line, but not right now. 

Then there's Joey Wendle.  He's a 28 year old Ben Zobrist, which is insane.  This guy came out of nowhere.  He also isn't a star, but we've had a large enough sample now to see that there's clearly something there.  Regression is coming, but even after it arrives, he's next in great line of super utility players. 

And finally, Shohei Othani.  He hits for average, hits for power, gets on base, can run, and is also one of the best pitchers in the majors.  He's truly a once in a lifetime player, which is insane when you think that the Angels have TWO once in a lifetime players and still aren't even a .500 team.  The only question with Ohtani is if he can stay healthy.  Hitting and pitching is tough to do, and he has the talent to do it, but can anyone's body handle the rigors of it in the modern game?  I'm guessing we won't know the answer to that question for two or three years.  But coming into the season, the biggest question was if anyone even had the talent to do both.  That question has been answered.  Shohei Ohtani may be one of the top 10 hitters in baseball and top 10 pitchers as well, and he's in his early 20's.  

Shohei Ohtani is the Rookie of the Year.  This is a great class, and he's so good that it isn't particularly close. 

 

Without saying any of your analysis is wrong, this is not how you pick a ROY.

It’s not about how good you are or you how good you will be. 

It is about who performed (past tense) the best in 2018. 

[Second Base]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Without saying any of your analysis is wrong, this is not how you pick a ROY.

It’s not about how good you are or you how good you will be. 

It is about who performed (past tense) the best in 2018. 

Miguel Andújar has done a great job.  The batting average and numbers are great. 

Gleyber Torres has been a very good player as well.  He's a good defender pretty much anywhere on the infield, shows plate discipline beyond his years and pretty decent power.

(Joey Wendle) we've had a large enough sample now to see that there's clearly something there

He (Ohtani) hits for average, hits for power, gets on base, can run, and is also one of the best pitchers in the majors.  But coming into the season, the biggest question was if anyone even had the talent to do both.  That question has been answered.

------------------------

If I'm not mistaken Jeff, I was speaking both of this season and future seasons.  And at leas apart of that is how ROY voting goes.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

As of the most recent poll Ohtani is the favorite for ROY. In early August he was third.

[Blarg]

9 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Without saying any of your analysis is wrong, this is not how you pick a ROY.

It’s not about how good you are or you how good you will be. 

It is about who performed (past tense) the best in 2018. 

Ohtani OPS+ 153

Andujar OPS+ 124

Torres OPS+ 117

Wendle OPS+ 119

Just based on that Ohtani has been the best hitter of the group and by a large margain.

[Blarg]

Oh, did I mention he has accomplished that with an ulnar collateral tear? It's like he can beat these guys one armed. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 hours ago, Blarg said:

Ohtani OPS+ 153

Andujar OPS+ 124

Torres OPS+ 117

Wendle OPS+ 119

Just based on that Ohtani has been the best hitter of the group and by a large margain.

The only case against him is going to be volume. The other guys have him in the counting stuff, because they all had 500+ PAs, and Ohtani will have about 325. If Ohtani had been a DH only and had the exact same hitting stats he has now, he wouldn't win, and shouldn't win.

Of course he wasn't a DH only. He pitched 52 innings. Anyone who remembers that should vote for him. Fans on Twitter and even some in the baseball media may have forgotten about those 52 innings (or, more likely, thought it was only 20 or something), that's the only explanation for some of them supporting one of the other candidates.

As for @Scotty@AW, I realize part of your post was referring to the performance, but you also drifted off into scouting and projecting the future, and I was just pointing out that's not part of any of these awards. I guess I wanted to remind you of that, more than saying your conclusion was wrong in this case.

Ohtani is going to win. Maybe not unanimously, but close.

 

[Docwaukee]

13 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Without saying any of your analysis is wrong, this is not how you pick a ROY.

It’s not about how good you are or you how good you will be. 

It is about who performed (past tense) the best in 2018. 

what is the criteria for best performance?  

Is 315 ab a reasonable enough sample? 

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

what is the criteria for best performance?  

Is 315 ab a reasonable enough sample? 

 

That's in the eyes of the voter.

It also depends on how the gap in performance compares to the gap in sample size. 

Player A: .880 OPS, 350 PAs; Player B, .840 OPS, 500 PAs.

In this case I'd probably take Player B, because the gap in performance isn't that big but the gap in sample size is.

Player A: .960 OPS, 350 PAs,; Player B .840 OPS, 500 PAs.

In this case, the sample size gap is the same, but here I'd go with Player A because the performance is significantly better.

You're seeing some of this with the AL Cy Young. Snell has a much better ERA, but a lot fewer innings than Verlander. 

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

20 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

It is about who performed (past tense) the best in 2018. 

Do the voting instructions specifically state this? If they do then it's Wendle's to lose... which just seems to miss the big picture entirely (which seems to be what you are suggesting the writers are instructed to do).

[AngelsLakersFan]

Ohtani is hands down the best player in his rookie class this year. He is far and away the best pitcher and far and away the best hitter.

It'd be a shame to give the award away to some player who will be forgotten in a few years just because Ohtani spent a significant chunk of the season trying to do something that hasn't been done in 100 years. That line of thinking is what gets you Marty Cordova over Garret Anderson in '95. There has to be some room for the big picture beyond just 'which rookie had the highest WAR this year.'

The quotes from the article illustrate well that the baseball writers still have a ways to go before they find themselves in the 21st century.

[Jeff Fletcher]

9 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Do the voting instructions specifically state this? If they do then it's Wendle's to lose... which just seems to miss the big picture entirely (which seems to be what you are suggesting the writers are instructed to do).

No. They don’t. But I think it’s understood that we’re not making predictions here. We are looking back at 2018.

I also think you can very easily say Ohtani was the best even looking at it that way. His rate stats are all the best, and his value as a pitcher should compensate for the deficit in terms of volume as a hitter. 

[Pujols4MVP]

Over a full season worth of PA's even if Ohtani's numbers dipped over a full season he'd still wind up with 30 to 35 HRs & a higher OPS than them & his WAR would still improve over where it is now. I think over a full season he'd have only gone down as low as a .860 OPS but would probably finish around .880 over a full season.

[eligrba]

Who cares about ROY?

The most important question to ask regarding a rookie is "Who would you rather have?"  Given the options this year, Ohtani wins going away, even with a UCL injury.

[disarcina]

Well -- it's the same as the Ichiro debate of a few years back.

Is Ohtani really a rookie?

I don't consider him one -- but if the rules say he is, he is.

if he is - IMO -- he's rookie of the year.......stats for pitching and hitting ---and pretty good ones for each category for a rookie,

Has any one done this since a guy that played for the Boston Red Sox named Babe Ruth?? Of course, no DH back then.

so if Ohtani is qualified to be an MLB rookie (and I think that's a big IF -- I never thought Ichiro was a rookie back when) then he's ROY in the AL. Hands down.

(And I don't think you can take votes away from Ohtani because 'he's not really a rookie' -- either he qualifies or he doesn't -- if he qualifies he's ROY -- personally, if I were MLB guy in charge -- Ohtani would deemed to be inelgible for ROY -- but that's not what's going to happen).

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 hours ago, disarcina said:

Well -- it's the same as the Ichiro debate of a few years back.

Is Ohtani really a rookie?

I don't consider him one -- but if the rules say he is, he is.

if he is - IMO -- he's rookie of the year.......stats for pitching and hitting ---and pretty good ones for each category for a rookie,

Has any one done this since a guy that played for the Boston Red Sox named Babe Ruth?? Of course, no DH back then.

so if Ohtani is qualified to be an MLB rookie (and I think that's a big IF -- I never thought Ichiro was a rookie back when) then he's ROY in the AL. Hands down.

(And I don't think you can take votes away from Ohtani because 'he's not really a rookie' -- either he qualifies or he doesn't -- if he qualifies he's ROY -- personally, if I were MLB guy in charge -- Ohtani would deemed to be inelgible for ROY -- but that's not what's going to happen).

I don't really get this line of thinking. Was Kris Bryant not a 'real rookie' in 2015?