Is Calhoun the starting Rf next year?

[WeatherWonk]

Wish we would take a flyer on Cutch. He would make a good leadoff hitter. His OBP has been high his whole career. Unlike Kole whose OBP is .280 this year. WTF, Sosh? 

He still steals bases. As much power as Calhoun. Not as good a fielder as Calhoun. Few are.

Cutch might sign a two year deal, with an option.

Cutch, Donaldson, Familia. Arte might have to good go a bit over the cap.

Cutch, Trout, Ohtani, Donaldson, Upton, Fernandez/Pujols, Simmons, Catcher, Cozart/Fletch. Good speed at the top again.

But it will be Kole. If it was Valbuena, it will be Kole.

 

[eligrba4ever]

In a teardown, who's to say who starts where and for whom in six months' time.

We'll wait and see whose name Billy and Mike*** put down on the Opening Day card..

Not sure what a "sell low" situation brings in return for Kole in this offseason.

***Subject to change 9/29/18.

[Vlad27Trout27]

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

It'd be totally bonkers, and I don't know exactly how I'd feel about it, but signing Harper makes as much sense as signing Hamilton did.

He has an OBP of .409 over the last four seasons. Put him in front of Trout and Ohtani and you have arguably the three best offensive players in baseball atop the '19 lineup - and Simmons and Upton.

Adell or Marsh could then easily turn into trade bait for a cost-controlled front-line starter...between one or two of them, plus any combo of Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss, Fletcher, maybe Suarez, I'd think you'd be in good shape to pry away someone like deGrom, Syndergaard, Taillon, Bumgarner.

Harper would come back to the West, Arte would have insane marketing clout/hype to push, his age keeps him in the future plans, and he's an in-house replacement should Trout walk. 

RF Harper, CF Trout, DH Ohtani, LF Upton, 1B Pujols, SS Simmons, 3B Cozart, C literally anyone, 2B Fletcher
SP: Frontline Trade, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Heaney, Barria

The issue with trying to sign Harper is  it's going to cost us around 30 mil, which is the most we can spend this free agency. even if we trade Calhoun at most we get another 10 mil. which is not enough for us to add a Catcher, a Bp arm/ Closer and or another starter

 

[Lou]

13 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

The issue with trying to sign Harper is  it's going to cost us around 30 mil, which is the most we can spend this free agency. even if we trade Calhoun at most we get another 10 mil. which is not enough for us to add a Catcher, a Bp arm/ Closer and or another starter

 

If we sign Harper, we go with what we have at catcher, add cheap bp arms and get a SP. 

[totdprods]

19 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

The issue with trying to sign Harper is  it's going to cost us around 30 mil, which is the most we can spend this free agency. even if we trade Calhoun at most we get another 10 mil. which is not enough for us to add a Catcher, a Bp arm/ Closer and or another starter

Agreed - it pretty much taps us out, unless Arte goes over cap 'for the right player'...if there was some internal indication that Trout was going to walk or Pujols may retire a bit ahead of schedule, this becomes a little more feasible. 

If they were to salary dump Calhoun for a prospect, Jim Johnson-type, or equal dollar SP, it makes it a little more doable - but you'd have to count on the prospects for the bench and Canning, Suarez, and Sandoval for the rotation. 

To be honest, that really is sort of par the course for the Arte Angels...not necessarily Eppler Era...but spending huge to fill one need and going cheap on the rest? Sort of a hallmark of the last decade. 

Say they flip Adell, Suarez, and Rengifo for deGrom/Thor. 
Trade Calhoun for a Jim Johnson-esque reliever in a salary dump. 
Fletcher sticks at 2B, Arcia/Briceno at C, Hermosillo/waiver claim as the 4th OF, and a cast of rotating IF like Ward, Thaiss, Fernandez, maybe even option-less Cowart, as the UT IF. 

That leaves maybe enough money for one more veteran reliever or one-year stopgap SP, or a bench bat - maybe. 

Harper, Trout, Ohtani, Upton, Pujols, Simmons, Cozart, Briceno, Fletcher
Arcia, Cowart, Hermosillo, Fernandez for the bench. Ward, Thaiss right behind. 
deGrom/Thor, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Heaney, Barria - Pena, Canning, Sandoval, etc. as depth. 
Parker, Bedrosian, Robles, Anderson, Alvarez, Cole, Calhoun trade, Buttrey, Jerez, Middleton....

Enough $$$ for maybe one more stopgap player somewhere. Maybe Calhoun+ dealt for a 1B like Jose Martinez instead of an arm? Maybe swap him out with NYM in the Thor/deGrom deal to land Todd Frazier as our bench bat to replace Valbuena/Marte?

It's not awful, but once again, it all hinges entirely on the health of the rotation. Depending on who all gets dealt for the SP, the farm could still be in solid shape too. 

[Lou]

if a guy like Harper isn't "the right player", one doesn't exist.

[tdawg87]

I never understood that saying by Arte. So if he finds "the right player" and goes over the threshold to sign him, is that it? Could Eppler theoretically sign Keuchel, trade Calhoun, sign Grandal and be right at the threshold, then sign Harper? What if it doesn't work in that order? Would he not do it because Grandal isn't "the right player"? Does Arte like black women? 

I'm so confused. 

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Lou said:

if a guy like Harper isn't "the right player", one doesn't exist.

Exactly. 

Simba: .286/.332/.407/.740, 102 OPS+ - averaging 33 2B, 12 HR, 15 SB, 42 BB, 57 K per 162 games last 3 years
Harper: .266/.391/.505/.896, 133 OPS+ - averaging 32 2B, 35 HR, 15 SB, 119 BB, 150 K per 162 games last 3 years
Trout: .313/.447/.601/1.048, 185 OPS+ - averaging 33 2B, 40 HR, 31 SB, 130 BB, 138 K per 162 games last 3 years
Ohtani: .285/.368/.567/.935, 153 OPS+ - averaging 33 2B, 33 HR, 15 SB, 62 BB, 159 K projected to 162 games
Upton: .260/.339/.492/.832, 122 OPS+ - averaging 33 2B, 35 HR, 11 SB, 68 BB, 193 K per 162 games last 3 years

Any way you line them up, there's not really any 5 hitters on one team capable of that. If Fletcher and Cozart can give you at least around a OPS+ of 100, the struggles of Pujols, a cheap catching tandem, and the bench may not hurt too bad...

...but it all comes back to the health of the rotation.

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I never understood that saying by Arte. So if he finds "the right player" and goes over the threshold to sign him, is that it? Could Eppler theoretically sign Keuchel, trade Calhoun, sign Grandal and be right at the threshold, then sign Harper? What if it doesn't work in that order? Would he not do it because Grandal isn't "the right player"? Does Arte like black women? 

I'm so confused. 

1. I don't know

2. I don't know

3. I don't know

4. I don't know

5. yes 

[Lou]

now we know why Harper isn't the answer.

his lack of doubles 

[totdprods]

14 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Exactly. 

Simba: .286/.332/.407/.740, 102 OPS+ - averaging 33 2B, 12 HR, 15 SB, 42 BB, 57 K per 162 games last 3 years
Harper: .266/.391/.505/.896, 133 OPS+ - averaging 32 2B, 35 HR, 15 SB, 119 BB, 150 K per 162 games last 3 years
Trout: .313/.447/.601/1.048, 185 OPS+ - averaging 33 2B, 40 HR, 31 SB, 130 BB, 138 K per 162 games last 3 years
Ohtani: .285/.368/.567/.935, 153 OPS+ - averaging 33 2B, 33 HR, 15 SB, 62 BB, 159 K projected to 162 games
Upton: .260/.339/.492/.832, 122 OPS+ - averaging 33 2B, 35 HR, 11 SB, 68 BB, 193 K per 162 games last 3 years

Any way you line them up, there's not really any 5 hitters on one team capable of that. If Fletcher and Cozart can give you at least around a OPS+ of 100, the struggles of Pujols, a cheap catching tandem, and the bench may not hurt too bad...

...but it all comes back to the health of the rotation.

Went a step further and checked in on the 3-yr/162 averages for Cozart, Fletcher, and Briceno+ Arcia. 
This is just playing around math obviously. 

That Starting 9 would average this slash:
.270/.344/.469/.813 with a total of 273 2B, 231 HR, 104 SB, 576 BB, 1091 K
Compared to 2018's:
.244/.314/.414/.728 with a total of 238 2B, 203 HR, 84 SB, 486 BB, 1245 K (that's including our bench)
The  best offense in 2018 is Boston:
.267/.337/.450/.787 with a total of 330 DB, 197 HR, 118 SB, 532 BB, 1192 K - probably around what the theoretical '19 Angels look like with bench included

Boston's 2018 pitching:
3.69 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 8 H9, 1.1 HR9, 3.1 BB9, 9.5 K9
Angels' 2018 pitching:
4.18 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 8.5 H9, 1.3 HR9, 3.4 BB9, 8.6 K9 - add deGrom into that for '19 and he probably makes up most of the gap along - and it's probably a Top 5 AL pitching staff - we're around #8 this year, despite all of our struggles.

[disarcina]

Calhoun's maximum value was last off-season and, perhaps, prior to the deadline this year (his numbers were decent -- it was before he really tanked the second half this year marked by an offensive drought from his part with intermittent very short streaks of multiple hit games -- at this point his value is significantly degraded on a downward slope --

SO -- with that being the case -- I think the best strategy is to keep him, have him start the season as the starting RF, (we're not going anywhere in 2019 anyway) and hope he returns somewhat to form and then after he has -- one can hope -- put up some fairly good numbers for April/ part of May -- deal him for pitching......at that point - end of his contract, best years arguably behind him -- won't get much in return but something -- and perhaps more than what you would get for him in a one for one type deal during this next off-season.

cant think of what sort of package we could put together with him right now -- I mean folks -- take a look at our roster -- we don't have much in the way of value to trade.

I wouldn't move Trout, Simmons and Ohtani has a no-trade clause.  What else do we have of value? Upton's contract is too expensive -- but he has value.

Virtually our entire pitching staff is injury prone if past year's are any indication. Seriously, if you are a GM from another team -- other than some top farm prospects -- what player would you want from this team ?

[ScottT]

Calhoun had a roller coaster season in 2017, too.   I think he can be an average hitter and an above average defender next year.  You definitely don't let his $11.5 million owed stand in the way of... anything, really... but with Adell seemingly not too far away.... I think it's likely we see Calhoun starting next season in RF.  The Angels have done worse at certain positions in recent years.  2-3 WAR players aren't sexy, but they can be useful.  

[Docwaukee]

Calhoun is a placeholder at this point.  Adell can't get here quick enough.  Kole will come to spring in TBSOHL.  My guess is we'll grab a RHed OFer to platoon with him and act as insurance should he crap the bed early in the year.  

Guys.  let's be clear.  there is zero chance we sign Harper and it's my opinion that we absolutely shouldn't.  We won't because he's a Boras client, plays terrible defense, is decently inconsistent, and is going to cost a truck load of money.  If you're going to spend what it will take to sign him, then you're better off with Machado.  But that won't happen either.  Why?  Because I don't think there's a team that could house two 35+mil per year players on their roster and have enough left over to do what they need under the current CBA.  

Here's another way to look at it.  Let's say that a Trout extension doesn't negate the ability to sign Harper.  But Simmons needs an extension as well.  Likely for about 20-25mil per year.  People like to dream on Harper, but Simmons has been far more consistently valuable.  Even including Harper's aberration year of 10 WAR, Simmons still beats him by 3.4 WAR.  Andrelton isn't going to put up a 10 WAR season, but he's not going to put up a sub 2 WAR season either.  Which is what harper has done 3 times in the last 5 years.  

And here's what Arte means when he says 'the right player'.  What he actually means is the right player for the right situation.  If the current roster was short that one guy and bringing in that difference maker put us over the cap for a couple of years, then I think he'd spend the money.  That's not where we're at.  

I've said this on other threads.  Stay the course.  2019 will be another year where Eppler will fill out the roster to give the team a chance at a wild card spot if a lot goes right.  Now is not the time to go all in on one free agent as the final piece to the puzzle.  The puzzle is going to take a couple more years.  

We're rebuilding.  It's not the same kind of rebuild that other teams have gone through where they lose 100 games.  But it's a rebuild nonetheless.  Finishing below .500 4 times in the last 6 years is a rebuild.  We probably have have 3 90+ loss seasons in a row if Trout is human.  He just disguises what this has been.  

Don't get me wrong.  There's hope.  We're in a good place now vs. where we were three years ago.  But realistically, we're still 2-3 years away which makes a Trout extension the most important transaction this franchise will ever have to deal with.  Why?  Because Trout plus 2 avg players is the same as having 3 all stars.  

This terrible stretch to end the year doesn't change anything.  The plan is still the same.  It's not angelswin plan, but I would imagine Billy is smart enough to have expected this team to be exactly where they're at.  

[Lou]

7 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Kole will come to spring in TBSOHS 

??

[ten ocho recon scout]

5 minutes ago, Lou said:

??

Sorrylife

[Docwaukee]

38 minutes ago, Lou said:

??

L

L is the first letter in Lou.  Lou is a an ahole.  Don't be an ahole.  

[Lou]

I agree 

[disarcina]

DocHalo's long analysis - when you get to the end of it - actually sounds somewhat optimistic (realistic?).

I agree with most of it -- except I just don't see the Halos stockpiling young arms (maybe there's hope in the system coming up - y'all have a better idea of that than I do) -- but I see a nucleus around Trout, Simmons, Ohtani and Upton but not much else.  And unless we can get some of our rotation guys to all be healthy for a full season -- and it seems each of the key arms we have now have all had arm issues (multiple times/ seasons) making them all suspect for a full season long haul.  We really do not have a quality closer - and not a lot of pen depth.

So I part ways with Doc Halo's optimism (reality based view) when it comes to the pitching -- all of it - rotation/ pen/ close.

As for Calhoun, it means he could leave in a package deal in the off-season or be dealt before 2019 trade deadline.  One thing about 2018 - it seems like Calhoun looked more suspect with the glove than he has in the past. Maybe I just happened to catch the games where he mis-played flyballs or made an error -- it was noticeable because I always thought of him as fairly solid out there, almost gold glove worthy and with a pretty good arm from RF......perhaps it was his moving around some in the OF playing LF, some CF and RF. Hard to say.

It appears his most productive seasons are in the rear-view mirror.

[ScottT]

Calhoun has very little trade value. I don't see that happening. 

[disarcina]

and - big question mark -- will Ohtani return to the mound next year?

I think Ohtani could be a DH and set up guy -- the hitters seem to track Ohtani their second/ third time through the line up.

let Ohtaini DH four days plus a week and pitch him as a set up guy (sort of the Scot Shields role). We need to get back to that -- the days where Scot Shields came in and pitched an inning or two to get to Percy then later K-Rod in the ninth.........that really shortened games and made the rotation better - especially the second half of the season........

I think Ohtaini could be very effective in that role -- not have the pressure of closing and would be able to hit.

Of course, where does that leave Pujols ? Probably with fewer than 150 ABs on the season.

 

[totdprods]

@Dochalo, I agree entirely with your insight - Simmons being more valuable, Harper's wild inconsistency, the roadblocks his contract would cause with payroll...

...but all of that also sounds incredibly similar to what was being said about Hamilton, and look what happened. 

Very likely Arte learned his lesson with Hamilton, and again, I agree that Harper isn't the direction I'd take for the same concerns you voiced, but history repeats itself. 

Maybe Josh Bryce flourishes away from Texas Washington, maybe Josh Bryce just needs to have another star to take the pressure off him, etc.

I imagine he's still going to be prone to wild inconsistencies, poor defense, ice-cold slumps, but in theory, putting him in front of Trout and throwing them together in friendly competition could work too, and they seem to already have a bit of rapport together. And that doesn't even take into account what Ohtani could do as full-time DH, guys like Upton or Simmons, or even any off-field contributions Pujols could instill in him. 

But man, it'd suck if 2021 Bryce Harper was manning CF instead.

[GrittyVeterans]

Calhoun is not nearly the teams biggest problem heading into the offseason.

which is a very scary thought.

this team has holes all over the diamond. They aren’t going to even bother upgrading his spot until they take a stab at fixing the pitching probably

[CDiaz27?]

I’d love to see Eppler trade for Nick Castellanos had a very solid year 22 HR’s .303 BA

[gurn67]

Mallex Smith would look great in RF & the leadoff position.