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Finally, a solid MOTO (and why Next Year's Lineup Could be Good)


Angelsjunky

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23 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

There are a fair amount of pre-existing financial commitments that they aren't likely to find replacements for.   Pujols is going to get a crack at playing a decent number of games at 1b.  maybe half a seasons worth.  So they aren't going to make a long term commitment to another player unless it's to platoon which they probably will do but it's not going to be for a moto bat.  Cozart is going to occupy one of 2b or 3b.  They're not going to make him a $12.67mil utility player.  Calhoun is owed $10.5m for 2019 and a 1m buyout for 2020. After his awful 2018, he's got very little trade value.  They've also got uber prospect Adell less than a year away to take his place.  

Could they sign Machado and trade for Realmuto?  Sure, but that Machado money pretty much negates any opportunity to extend Simmons or Realmuto beyond 2020 and may even make a Trout extension less likely.  It also means fewer resources to take care of a somewhat sub par rotation.  

Do you think it's an acceptable plan to have a rotation that is about league average? 

We don't have unlimited financial and prospect resources to turn a team that won 80 games  into one with a top 5 offense, bullpen and rotation.  

Even with many of the holes in our lineup, the team still managed to be 12th in WAR and a about half a win from being 9th.  If Kole rebounds some, Ohtani DH's almost everyday, Cozart is better, and we get some better options for 2b/3b, C as well as off the bench, we could easily be in the 5-7 range.  So twins/royals comp is unfair and frankly, it's not even close.  At worst, they'll end up in the top 10 health permitting.  

You want more bang for your buck?  Our starters were 19th and would need a 60% increase in production to get into the top 10 and 100% increase in production to hit the top 5.  

Our pen was ranked 20th and would need to double their production to get into the top 10.  A much more doable feat however, considering the improvement we saw in September. 

So by all means, let's improve the lineup but even marginal improvement still makes it very good. 

But the focus should absolutely be on the rotation.  

This team is still in recovery from being horribly mismanaged through 2015.  Yet they still rolled out the 7th highest payroll and are likely to do he same next year.  The appropriate goal for the large market Halos is to continue to develop a strong core of young players from their farm system and supplement that with free agency.  They're finally on the right track again.  How you derail that is by going all in too soon when those prospects aren't ready and you still have holes you can't do anything about because of financial commitments ie, trying to force it.  

I agree with so much of this post. . .

But I don't think some aggression now in free agency is too soon, especially if it addresses positions not likely to be solved with the wave of prospects coming.

 

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37 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They’re average right now. 

They have 4 spots that are above average, some of them significantly. If they get to average at the other ones, that makes the team above average.

Its unrealistic to try to have above average players at every position. That’s called the All-Star Game 

You will never convince that thick head of that. 

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34 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I agree with so much of this post. . .

But I don't think some aggression now in free agency is too soon, especially if it addresses positions not likely to be solved with the wave of prospects coming.

 

If that aggression includes either harper or machado then it's not gonna happen.  We just don't have the long term financial resources to sustain that and have the ability to fill other holes as well keep Simmons and Trout.  

Part of the issue is that it's still somewhat unclear as to what problems the wave of prospects will solve. It's way too soon to make any sort of conclusion on Ward, Fletcher, Adell, Rengifo, Jones, or even guys like Hermosillo.  

Again, I think that aggression should be geared toward the rotation with a possible upgrade at C and 3b.  I know you won't like this, but I still think Donaldson makes this team a lot better for 2019 if we can get him on a 1+1 where next year is about 15m and the option is for about 25m.  Ultimately, I think he takes a 3/60 deal.  I think he's going into FAcy asking for 4/100 but he ain't getting that and he could be one of those who overvalues his market.   Although there are likely quite a few suitors out there.  Philly, Mets, Angels, Cards.  

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2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

For the record I explicitly said it isn't realistic to have beasts at every position.

I said I am not comfortable with what I view as five spots I am worried about.

My point is that you are “worried” about anyone who isn’t a sure thing to be above average. You seem to have a very high bar for what you believe is acceptable. 

Its not that much of a stretch for Kole Calhoun to be an average RF or for Cozart to be average at whichever position he plays.

I think you need to do some research on how good average offensive players are in 2018.

 

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34 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

My point is that you are “worried” about anyone who isn’t a sure thing to be above average. You seem to have a very high bar for what you believe is acceptable. 

Its not that much of a stretch for Kole Calhoun to be an average RF or for Cozart to be average at whichever position he plays.

I think you need to do some research on how good average offensive players are in 2018.

 

Congratulations for stating the obvious that Calhoun and Cozart might be OK.  I would have no problem with that if there were not THREE more spots like look like dogshit.

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Just now, Jeff Fletcher said:

The Red Sox were below average at 2B, 3B and worst in the majors at C.

Jeff you are mistaken if you think I expect the Angels to not have positions that are below average.

The fear I have is having three or more disasters.

My opinion is Ward is going to be a bust and Albert Pujols will be exactly who we know he actually is now, and the catcher will be a defense only player that can't hit.

If that happens and Cozart and Calhoun are just "OK" this offense is going to be bad.

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2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Jeff you are mistaken if you think I expect the Angels to not have positions that are below average.

The fear I have is having three or more disasters.

My opinion is Ward is going to be a bust and Albert Pujols will be exactly who we know he actually is now, and the catcher will be a defense only player that can't hit.

If that happens and Cozart and Calhoun are just "OK" this offense is going to be bad.

Well the origin of this discussion was you being worried that the Angels had five holes.

The point I’m trying to make is you don’t have to fill them all to be good. 

If you have 4 spots that are plus, three average and two minus, you’ll be a pretty good team.

Certainly the Angels need to improve to get to that, but it’s not an unreachable goal. If they turn one of those other 5 into a plus with a significant investment, then they really just need to get enough young guys and reclamation projects that average will emerge at a couple other spots. 

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Just now, Jeff Fletcher said:

Well the origin of this discussion was you being worried that the Angels had five holes.

The point I’m trying to make is you don’t have to fill them all to be good. 

If you have 4 spots that are plus, three average and two minus, you’ll be a pretty good team.

Certainly the Angels need to improve to get to that, but it’s not an unreachable goal. If they turn one of those other 5 into a plus with a significant investment, then they really just need to get enough young guys and reclamation projects that average will emerge at a couple other spots. 

So we agree.  The need to do something significant.  We agree.

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11 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

So we agree.  The need to do something significant.  We agree.

They could. 

4 pluses, 4 average and 1 minus

5 pluses, 2 average, 2 minus. 

Either way. Doing something big at one spot means you can do nothing at another. Or they could do more little things. 

All that matters is the sum.

If it were me, I’d get Realmuto or Cesar Hernandez and that would be my extra plus. 

I think Eppler’s plan is more likely the former, and he knows much more about his players and the market than any of us do.

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48 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Jeff you are mistaken if you think I expect the Angels to not have positions that are below average.

The fear I have is having three or more disasters.

My opinion is Ward is going to be a bust and Albert Pujols will be exactly who we know he actually is now, and the catcher will be a defense only player that can't hit.

If that happens and Cozart and Calhoun are just "OK" this offense is going to be bad.

What kind of OPS+ would you consider a disaster?  

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4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

If it were me, I’d get Realmuto or Cesar Hernandez and that would be my extra plus. 

Both costs prospects and have surplus value in different ways.

Realmuto fills the catching hole where there are no real quality in house solutions. Catching jumps in OPS+ from about 70 to @115. That's a huge jump for moto purposes and extending the lineup on the back end. 

Hernandez fills the leadoff role. His stats tailed off this season and his career OPS+ is 98 but what you are looking for is a high OBP and he fits the bill. He is not a prolific base stealer so in that respect he is no Figgins. 

Of the two Realmuto brings the most impact to a position we don't have an equal player in house. Not on the roster or in the minors. 

In Hernandez case he is better getting on base than Fletcher's first cup of coffee but there is the possibility that Rengifo could be the next Figgins. So spending prospect cash for what you may already have could be spinning wheels. 

Looking long, get Realmuto and sign him to an extension. That seals up the biggest hole in the Angels organization. The infield is Cozart, Simmons, Fletcher, Pujols/free agent? If Rengifo continues to show he is Figgins then mid season you make Fletcher the infield super sub and bat Rengifo leadoff. 

Next season is still transitional. Trying to create a division leader in one off season isn't going to happen. Not making the right moves may even make 2020 a transition year instead of a more final product. To get there the Angels do have to lean on the farm for both trade value and on field value. Free agency is probably going to be pitching. 

 

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With Kingery in the wings I could see Hernandez getting traded.  His cost would be considerably less than last off season because he has one less year of control and he is coming off a down year.  The Angels have a glut of 2nd base options, which may make it seem silly to trade for a 2nd base man.  But man to have a .350-.370 OBP guy at the top of the line up that has proven he can do it at the major league level would be very nice to pencil in.  If you do trade for him, that frees up trading Jam Jones, or Rengifo or even Fletcher for upgrades at other positions.  I would assume realistically we could trade for both Hernandez and Realmuto and since they aren’t that expensive, they could also sign a starter or two.  This could be a very interesting off season.  

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I'm going to take an incredibly simplistic look at the offense and offer reasoning why we're closer to good than some would expect.

9 of the top 10 teams in the MLB in runs scored all made the playoffs. Obviously that isn't causality but it's not coincidence either. The Angels finished 15th in runs, 38 runs behind the 10th place Braves. That's 0.23 runs per game. If you recall, Trout missed nearly an entire month. We also had Calhoun gimp his way through the first two months of the year. Ohtani was also a part time hitter. Now if we make the assumptions that if Trout didn't miss that month, and Calhoun was average all year, and Ohtani got, say, 100 more PA's, it would be safe to assume those 38 runs would have been easily made up and the Angels would have had a top 10 offense.

Let's also consider luck. The Angels had the lowest BABIP in baseball at .277. Average is .300, or .294 this year. Some outs get turned into hits, and there's some more runs right there. Not to mention a higher average, OBP, OPS, etc...

So that's a few simple assumptions and changes to the 2018 lineup, and we go from an average offense to an above average one. 

We are far away from an elite offense, but we're literally a few lucky bounces and some health away from an above average one. Add in a guy like Realmuto and I think a top 10 offense should be expected.

 

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2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I'm going to take an incredibly simplistic look at the offense and offer reasoning why we're closer to good than some would expect.

9 of the top 10 teams in the MLB in runs scored all made the playoffs. Obviously that isn't causality but it's not coincidence either. The Angels finished 15th in runs, 38 runs behind the 10th place Braves. That's 0.23 runs per game. If you recall, Trout missed nearly an entire month. We also had Calhoun gimp his way through the first two months of the year. Ohtani was also a part time hitter. Now if we make the assumptions that if Trout didn't miss that month, and Calhoun was average all year, and Ohtani got, say, 100 more PA's, it would be safe to assume those 38 runs would have been easily made up and the Angels would have had a top 10 offense.

Let's also consider luck. The Angels had the lowest BABIP in baseball at .277. Average is .300, or .294 this year. Some outs get turned into hits, and there's some more runs right there. Not to mention a higher average, OBP, OPS, etc...

So that's a few simple assumptions and changes to the 2018 lineup, and we go from an average offense to an above average one. 

We are far away from an elite offense, but we're literally a few lucky bounces and some health away from an above average one. Add in a guy like Realmuto and I think a top 10 offense should be expected.

 

There's no way to confidently say Kole Calhoun will be better in 2019 than he was in 2017 or 2018. The only reason he's still the RF is because Hermosillo wasn't developmentally ready and Jabari Blash can't hit major league pitching.

We hope Ohtani will be ready for the season, but we have to see how rehab goes. If he misses all of ST, and then tries to step into the lineup, he'll likely struggle, most players that don't get ST do. So we have to hope his rehab is expedient.

Pujols will be a year older, and won't get the DH days to rest his legs. Chances are, he's going to be worse, and hurt. So whoever our backup 1B is, is going to need to pick up the slack. Maybe JMF. 

Pour catching situation will likely improve offensively, but unless it's Realmuto or a free agent, the improvement may not be that drastic. 

Hopefully Cozart is a lot better than he was.

Either way, this offense isn't good, and it'll take more than a lucky bounce here and there to get that straightened out in 2019. The offense needs help. I'm hoping the Angels can swing a deal for Jose Martinez or Matt Adams to handle DH until Ohtani is ready and then shift to 1B and relegate Pujols into a lesser role. I'm also hoping we can get a new 2B that can shift Fletcher into a utility role, and trade for a replacement in RF for Calhoun. If they can do all that, which likely wouldn't cost much at all, the offense could be where it needs to be. 

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11 hours ago, Blarg said:

Both costs prospects and have surplus value in different ways.

Realmuto fills the catching hole where there are no real quality in house solutions. Catching jumps in OPS+ from about 70 to @115. That's a huge jump for moto purposes and extending the lineup on the back end. 

Hernandez fills the leadoff role. His stats tailed off this season and his career OPS+ is 98 but what you are looking for is a high OBP and he fits the bill. He is not a prolific base stealer so in that respect he is no Figgins. 

Of the two Realmuto brings the most impact to a position we don't have an equal player in house. Not on the roster or in the minors. 

In Hernandez case he is better getting on base than Fletcher's first cup of coffee but there is the possibility that Rengifo could be the next Figgins. So spending prospect cash for what you may already have could be spinning wheels. 

Looking long, get Realmuto and sign him to an extension. That seals up the biggest hole in the Angels organization. The infield is Cozart, Simmons, Fletcher, Pujols/free agent? If Rengifo continues to show he is Figgins then mid season you make Fletcher the infield super sub and bat Rengifo leadoff. 

Next season is still transitional. Trying to create a division leader in one off season isn't going to happen. Not making the right moves may even make 2020 a transition year instead of a more final product. To get there the Angels do have to lean on the farm for both trade value and on field value. Free agency is probably going to be pitching. 

 

Realmuto is a better player than Hernandez right now, but Hernandez is much cheaper in prospect cost because you’re buying low on him. 

But that’s just me. Eppler has no interest in Hernandez. He believes that he can find an everyday player among Ward/Fletcher/Rengifo to pair with Cozart.

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