Did the Ohtani injury make the halos better for 2019?

[Docwaukee]

Ohtani has accumulated 2.3 WAR as a hitter in his 279 plate appearances.  Assuming he would get approximately 700 plate appearances over the course of a full season, that would amount to about 5.8 WAR as a hitter.  And that's as a DH.  Playing somewhere in the field would likely tack on at least another win which would make him a near 7 win player.  

As a pitcher, he accumulated 1.0 WAR over 10 starts in 51.2 ip.  Giving him the benefit of the doubt, I would assume the most he'd pitch in a season would be about 150 innings.  Where he would accumulate about 3.0 WAR.  Importantly, he'd probably end up about where he is now in terms of plate appearances with about 300 and about 2.5 WAR.  

So, for the sake of argument, let's call it even.  

I'm gonna guess that Ohtani will get the surgery and I am also going to speculate that he will be ready to hit come spring training about six months from now.  

Most (including myself) thought that Shohei's arm was well beyond his bat in terms of potential contribution at the major league level but we've seen both to be pretty special.  

So at this point, if Ohtani the two way player were healthy, that probably doesn't translate into additional wins above Ohtani the position player.  Certainly, it brings interest to the franchise and what he's capable of is incredible.  

But let's be clear.  If Ohtani's bat can be in the lineup next year, there is no downside to the team on the field and the only true negative is to the player as well as perhaps some degree of media value.  

As an aside, another important thing to mention is this:  He's 24.  just turned actually.  Making him the second youngest position player on the team behind Mike Hermosillo.  You know what 24 year old players do with more experience?  They get better.  

So don't fret Angel fans.  While the two way player novelty of Shohei won't be realized in 2019, it will have almost no impact to the win column and as some have mentioned, provides clarity in terms of off season direction.  

I would also like to point out that Eppler slightly cracked open the door of Ohtani playing the field.  

[kevinb]

I guess it depends on what happens with Pujols. If Pujols is relegated to 1st or back up duties then great. I don’t know it doesn’t seem like a 24 year old full time dh needs multiple days off in a season. 

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

I guess it depends on what happens with Pujols. If Pujols is relegated to 1st or back up duties then great. I don’t know it doesn’t seem like a 24 year old full time dh needs multiple days off in a season. 

I think we'll see Shohei's bat in the lineup every day vs. righties and more vs. lefties than we've seen so far.  

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I think we'll see Shohei's bat in the lineup every day vs. righties and more vs. lefties than we've seen so far.  

About 140 DH starts then?

Which would give Pujols maybe 22 DH starts and 58 1B starts for 80 total starts.   That leaves 104 1B starts for either Thaiss or Walsh?

[DMVol]

18 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

About 140 DH starts then?

Which would give Pujols maybe 22 DH starts and 58 1B starts for 80 total starts.   That leaves 104 1B starts for either Thaiss or Walsh?

Pujols isn’t going to sign off on that.....the question is, how will the brain trust (perhaps including a new manager) handle him.....we’ll see....

[Cdaniel]

This is my thought process as well Doc.  Id like to see Ohtani start the year at DH as his arm continues to heal and get stronger with an eventual move to 1B.  This would plug a huge hole for the Halos.

Do the Angels go back to a 5 man rotation next year?

[Torridd]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Ohtani has accumulated 2.3 WAR as a hitter in his 279 plate appearances.  Assuming he would get approximately 700 plate appearances over the course of a full season, that would amount to about 5.8 WAR as a hitter.  And that's as a DH.  Playing somewhere in the field would likely tack on at least another win which would make him a near 7 win player.  

As a pitcher, he accumulated 1.0 WAR over 10 starts in 51.2 ip.  Giving him the benefit of the doubt, I would assume the most he'd pitch in a season would be about 150 innings.  Where he would accumulate about 3.0 WAR.  Importantly, he'd probably end up about where he is now in terms of plate appearances with about 300 and about 2.5 WAR.  

So, for the sake of argument, let's call it even.  

I'm gonna guess that Ohtani will get the surgery and I am also going to speculate that he will be ready to hit come spring training about six months from now.  

Most (including myself) thought that Shohei's arm was well beyond his bat in terms of potential contribution at the major league level but we've seen both to be pretty special.  

So at this point, if Ohtani the two way player were healthy, that probably doesn't translate into additional wins above Ohtani the position player.  Certainly, it brings interest to the franchise and what he's capable of is incredible.  

But let's be clear.  If Ohtani's bat can be in the lineup next year, there is no downside to the team on the field and the only true negative is to the player as well as perhaps some degree of media value.  

As an aside, another important thing to mention is this:  He's 24.  just turned actually.  Making him the second youngest position player on the team behind Mike Hermosillo.  You know what 24 year old players do with more experience?  They get better.  

So don't fret Angel fans.  While the two way player novelty of Shohei won't be realized in 2019, it will have almost no impact to the win column and as some have mentioned, provides clarity in terms of off season direction.  

I would also like to point out that Eppler slightly cracked open the door of Ohtani playing the field.  

I also wonder if he doesn't have to focus on pitching if he will become more effective as a hitter. 

[GrittyVeterans]

Ohtani at DH and no Scioscia definitely makes us better...remains to be seen if Eppler can make the upgrades to push us over the top

[totdprods]

I think I saw a tweet that said the Angels wouldn’t rule out Ohtani playing in the field either, and that it would be determined with feedback from doctors, so we could see him appear sporadically at 1B or OF too. 

I don’t think it makes them better per se, but it gives them a clearer picture on how to address offseason needs. If they were on the fence about pitching before, for some reason (everyone will be healthy!), they’ll have to make some move for the rotation now. There’s no way Skaggs, Shoemaker, Heaney, Barria, and Pena are the Starting Five by choice in ‘19.

And I’ve been in Pujols’ corner all along, but will admit that after this most recent surgery, his future is definitely in question - and I actually think he recognizes this too. 

[Dtwncbad]

2 hours ago, DMVol said:

Pujols isn’t going to sign off on that.....the question is, how will the brain trust (perhaps including a new manager) handle him.....we’ll see....

Maybe the Angels should have some balls and stop catering to a player that doesn't perform and can't stay healthy.

And this should fully include zero tolerance for Pujols playing with ANY physical issue.

Haven't we seen enough of in season announcements that Pujols has been gutting through some physical issue?

He is 100% healthy and producing or he is in the DL and out if the way.

No player has a right to be in the lineup when they are hurt or not producing.

Pujols is a HOF, but he isn't God.  Have some balls to have standards.

[DMVol]

21 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Maybe the Angels should have some balls and stop catering to a player that doesn't perform and can't stay healthy.

And this should fully include zero tolerance for Pujols playing with ANY physical issue.

Haven't we seen enough of in season announcements that Pujols has been gutting through some physical issue?

He is 100% healthy and producing or he is in the DL and out if the way.

No player has a right to be in the lineup when they are hurt or not producing.

Pujols is a HOF, but he isn't God.  Have some balls to have standards.

They have handled him with kid gloves to this point, that's for sure.....But the Ohtani news may be a tipping point....There just isn't going to be room for an everyday Pujols in a lineup that includes Ohtani (likely) as a full time DH....I don't think it's likely that Ohtani will play in the field after surgery and I don't think Pujols can play 1b every day if Ohtani is a DH full time... we'll see....We'll also see how the organization handles Pujols....

[Pujols4MVP]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I would also like to point out that Eppler slightly cracked open the door of Ohtani playing the field.  

What position would Ohtani be best at learning ? I think 1B would be easiest, also cause as a pitcher he has to run to 1B to be there for a catch sometimes.

His arm however would be great in RF & he's got the speed to develop at least average range, Vladimir Guerrero type throws to home plate or picking off runners at 1B.

[DMVol]

4 minutes ago, Scioscia4MVP said:

What position would Ohtani be best at learning ? I think 1B would be easiest, also cause as a pitcher he has to run to 1B to be there for a catch sometimes.

His arm however would be great in RF & he's got the speed to develop at least average range, Vladimir Guerrero type throws to home plate or picking off runners at 1B.

I guess my question would be whether, 6/8 months after TJ surgery, do they let you throw from RF?  Not like throwing a splitter for sure but a tough throw from the wall would be stressful on your arm....I don't know the answer to that...

[Pujols4MVP]

14 minutes ago, DMVol said:

I guess my question would be whether, 6/8 months after TJ surgery, do they let you throw from RF?  Not like throwing a splitter for sure but a tough throw from the wall would be stressful on your arm....I don't know the answer to that...

Yeah i wouldn't want to see him try it next season but If it ever happens, not next season but in the future if he has to learn a position it would be interesting cause he could potentially have a 9 WAR season with outfield assists, base running & his bat. It'd be like having Vlad again except with plate discipline

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Scioscia4MVP said:

Yeah i wouldn't want to see him try it next season but If it ever happens, not next season but in the future if he has to learn a position it would be interesting cause he could potentially have a 9 WAR season with outfield assists, base running & his bat. It'd be like having Vlad again except with plate discipline

Erhm, Vlad never topped a 7ish WAR in a year. I can't see that scenario happening unless Ohtani decides not to pitch again and takes over CF if Trout leaves. 

If he plays the field next year, it'd likely be sporadic, maybe part-time at best, and likely 1B or some low-stress corner-outfield games. I expect him to start eating into Pujols' DH at-bats. Bert will either be at 1B or start transitioning into a PH.

Bert was also awful against LHP this year, so not sure you could platoon them in that regard. 

[Troll Daddy]

The Ohtani injury hurts the Angels in 2019 but it does give the Angels much needed direction regarding Ohtani and the team. 

I would pleasantly be surprised if Ohtani is in the lineup for Opening Day. My best guess is that he’ll be a DH only in 2019 and will not be in the lineup until May or June. 

This kid is a remarkable athlete and anything he does doesn’t surprise me anymore. 

[floplag]

I think he needs to be able to do more than DH especially as long as Albert is still on the squad. 
Get the man a 1B mitt, he has the height, he could play the field easy enough especially when pitching isnt on the table.  

[kevinb]

18 minutes ago, floplag said:

I think he needs to be able to do more than DH especially as long as Albert is still on the squad. 
Get the man a 1B mitt, he has the height, he could play the field easy enough especially when pitching isnt on the table.  

Or play him at DH get his arm better and get a much better player at 1st and tell Albert to go away.

[floplag]

18 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

Or play him at DH get his arm better and get a much better player at 1st and tell Albert to go away.

Yeah, cause that will happen... can we be realistic about this please?  Albert isnt going anywhere for at least another season, end of story.  MAYBE he hangs it up after '19, maybe, but thats the best youre going to get.
The question is what do we do until that point. 

[halonatic13]

10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Ohtani has accumulated 2.3 WAR as a hitter in his 279 plate appearances.  Assuming he would get approximately 700 plate appearances over the course of a full season, that would amount to about 5.8 WAR as a hitter.  And that's as a DH.  Playing somewhere in the field would likely tack on at least another win which would make him a near 7 win player.  

As a pitcher, he accumulated 1.0 WAR over 10 starts in 51.2 ip.  Giving him the benefit of the doubt, I would assume the most he'd pitch in a season would be about 150 innings.  Where he would accumulate about 3.0 WAR.  Importantly, he'd probably end up about where he is now in terms of plate appearances with about 300 and about 2.5 WAR.  

So, for the sake of argument, let's call it even.  

I'm gonna guess that Ohtani will get the surgery and I am also going to speculate that he will be ready to hit come spring training about six months from now.  

Most (including myself) thought that Shohei's arm was well beyond his bat in terms of potential contribution at the major league level but we've seen both to be pretty special.  

So at this point, if Ohtani the two way player were healthy, that probably doesn't translate into additional wins above Ohtani the position player.  Certainly, it brings interest to the franchise and what he's capable of is incredible.  

But let's be clear.  If Ohtani's bat can be in the lineup next year, there is no downside to the team on the field and the only true negative is to the player as well as perhaps some degree of media value.  

As an aside, another important thing to mention is this:  He's 24.  just turned actually.  Making him the second youngest position player on the team behind Mike Hermosillo.  You know what 24 year old players do with more experience?  They get better.  

So don't fret Angel fans.  While the two way player novelty of Shohei won't be realized in 2019, it will have almost no impact to the win column and as some have mentioned, provides clarity in terms of off season direction.  

I would also like to point out that Eppler slightly cracked open the door of Ohtani playing the field.  

How can Ohtani play the field if we won't be able to throw?

[kevinb]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Yeah, cause that will happen... can we be realistic about this please?  Albert isnt going anywhere for at least another season, end of story.  MAYBE he hangs it up after '19, maybe, but thats the best youre going to get.
The question is what do we do until that point. 

Then Ohtani has no place on this team. They aren't going to play him in the field. Anywhere he plays he will have to throw the ball.

[Make Angels Great Again]

Ohtani is capable of more than 3.0 WAR as a pitcher in 150 innings though. He could put up as much as 5.0 in 150 innings I think at his best.

 

Plus, he is getting better as hitter.

 

[floplag]

31 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

Then Ohtani has no place on this team. They aren't going to play him in the field. Anywhere he plays he will have to throw the ball.

And yet they found a place for him this year somehow
Albert will be the primary 1B again, that die is cast.  Unless or until he breaks down again he will open the season in that capacity. 
If all he can do is DH, then that is what he will do, but any suggestion that they say goodbye to Albert is foolish, its not going to happen. 

[kevinb]

3 hours ago, floplag said:

And yet they found a place for him this year somehow
Albert will be the primary 1B again, that die is cast.  Unless or until he breaks down again he will open the season in that capacity. 
If all he can do is DH, then that is what he will do, but any suggestion that they say goodbye to Albert is foolish, its not going to happen. 

I get it but the reason they found a place for him was because he had to rest the day he pitched, the day before, and day after. That gave Pujols 3 days at DH. If Ohtani is just a hitter that means he maybe needs a couple days off a year if that. He will be 25 and be a DH. Pujols body will break down playing the field. Cut him/buy out and lets get someone  better at 1st.

[floplag]

3 hours ago, Kevinb said:

I get it but the reason they found a place for him was because he had to rest the day he pitched, the day before, and day after. That gave Pujols 3 days at DH. If Ohtani is just a hitter that means he maybe needs a couple days off a year if that. He will be 25 and be a DH. Pujols body will break down playing the field. Cut him/buy out and lets get someone  better at 1st.

Again, not happening, there is zero chance he gets cut or bought out.  You can dream, but the reality is that it isnt going to happen.  He wont be gone till he decides to be, and there is no way that happens till at least we go to StL next year.