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Should the Angels be better or...


Torridd

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6 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Except you don’t lose every time you have a blown save. In fact, you only lose about 2/3 of the time. 

Splitting hairs. You are now talking about a 2 game swing. Keep in mind blowing saves a lot of times means extra innings and further depleting additional BP and tiring out the whole team.... So yeah you only lose 4 instead of losing 6 games. But those extra variables will cost a team an extra 2 wins somewhere else.

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33 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Except you don’t lose every time you have a blown save. In fact, you only lose about 2/3 of the time. 

Overall correct, but even assuming thats true of this season thats still 4-5 games closer Jeff, wouldnt that make a huge difference right about now? 

People have mentioned how many games weve scored 3 or less, but thats less than half our games.  Overall we score 4.26 per game.  The playoff teams are all basically over 5 however, we are actually again better than Sea in this regard as they are only 4.22.   They score less, have more closer games, but they dont blow leads. 

As i said it isnt the only reason, its just in my view the largest one, does any other areas result in a larger gain in the standing?  Perhaps thats the better question.  I dont see another area with a larger impact than 4-6 games.

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13 minutes ago, floplag said:

Overall correct, but even assuming thats true of this season thats still 4-5 games closer Jeff, wouldnt that make a huge difference right about now? 

People have mentioned how many games weve scored 3 or less, but thats less than half our games.  Overall we score 4.26 per game.  The playoff teams are all basically over 5 however, we are actually again better than Sea in this regard as they are only 4.22.   They score less, have more closer games, but they dont blow leads. 

As i said it isnt the only reason, its just in my view the largest one, does any other areas result in a larger gain in the standing?  Perhaps thats the better question.  I dont see another area with a larger impact than 4-6 games.

No it isn’t less than half our games, after yesterday it is above half our games.  The main problem on this team is offense.  It shows in the stats.  

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44 minutes ago, Griffey's Corner said:

It's also disheartening to lose at the very end because your BP lets you down.... that can also very easily cause or add to a long losing streak & a downward spiral of the whole team.

Blown saves can and do happen in the 6th inning.  That isn’t the very end, it is middle third of the game.  

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Should have been far better.

 But they couldn't absorb three starting pitchers that were being counted on going down (Richards, Ohtani and Ramirez) the loss of a key reliever (Middleton), poor offensive seasons from four regulars (Calhoun, Cozart, Kinsler and Valbuena) which magnified Pujol's limited offensive abilities and put extreme pressure on Trout and Simmons to carry the offense, and extremely poor hitting with RISP from the four/five hitter (Upton). 

But a bright side is if they keep playing like they are they should have the # 8-10 pick in the draft next year and we all know who they picked in the first and second rounds of 2017 when they had the #10 pick.

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2 hours ago, floplag said:

Overall correct, but even assuming thats true of this season thats still 4-5 games closer Jeff, wouldnt that make a huge difference right about now? 

People have mentioned how many games weve scored 3 or less, but thats less than half our games.  Overall we score 4.26 per game.  The playoff teams are all basically over 5 however, we are actually again better than Sea in this regard as they are only 4.22.   They score less, have more closer games, but they dont blow leads. 

As i said it isnt the only reason, its just in my view the largest one, does any other areas result in a larger gain in the standing?  Perhaps thats the better question.  I dont see another area with a larger impact than 4-6 games.

I think there’s a selective memory bias when it comes to the bullpen so the games when the bullpen falters sticks out more. 

The Angels have also lost 10 games when they’ve allowed 3 runs or fewer, which is 5 more than Seattle and 6 more than Oakland. 

Those games are on the offense. 

Also, I suspect that the main reason the Angels have a higher percentage of blown saves than the Mariners is because a larger percentage of those save opportunities are with a 1-run lead instead of a 2- or 3-run lead. 

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11 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think there’s a selective memory bias when it comes to the bullpen so the games when the bullpen falters sticks out more. 

The Angels have also lost 10 games when they’ve allowed 3 runs or fewer, which is 5 more than Seattle and 6 more than Oakland. 

Those games are on the offense. 

Also, I suspect that the main reason the Angels have a higher percentage of blown saves than the Mariners is because a larger percentage of those save opportunities are with a 1-run lead instead of a 2- or 3-run lead. 

Again, i didnt suggest offense isnt a factor, theres plenty of blame to go around.   The offense has certainly been part of the problem. no question.  You could probably point a finger in either direction and not be wrong. 

We dug ourselves a hole in the first half when the bullpen was much worse, selective memory also comes in with recent events and people seeing the offense be more of the reason of late. 

 I personally point more to the pen and the issue of late inning losses as those are games we absolutely should have won for the most part as opposed to games where we just dont score at all.  A loss is a loss is a loss, but letting wins slip away hurts a lot more than not really ever being in a position to win to me.   Thats just my opinion.

Bottom line we cant as fans of this team even agree what the real problem is, and that IS the real problem.   We have too many to even agree on them. 

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Looked it up....

The Angels have 18 blown saves in 17 games (they had two in one game). They are 6-11 in those games.

Of the 11 losses, in 5 of those games they scored 3 runs or fewer. Major league teams win 21 percent of their games when they score 3 runs or fewer. You are supposed to lose those games.

Also, 9 of the blown saves happened in the 6th or 7th innings.

 

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Honestly, the Angels offense, rotation and bullpen are all sort of mediocre and middle of the pack. None of it is good, none of it horrible. 

That's why they've been hovering around .500.

They are exactly the sum of their parts.

Being .500 seems a lot worse because of the division they are in. If they were .500 in the NL, they'd be 4-6 games out of a playoff spot and the narrative would be a lot different.

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3 hours ago, floplag said:

There are many reasons the team doesnt have a better record, no doubt, and we all seem to want to point to the ones that support our opinion.   In my view the part most responsible, and most directly impactful, is the bullpen, but you could legitimately argue your point or those who feel the starters havent been good or whatever, and all would be right.  It comes down to the level of impact.

The reason I focus so hard on the pen is that if they had performed just to the level of the competition, we would still be in the race even with all those other concerns.   How many save ops isnt the problem, if they had converted on them the same percentage of the time that the Ms or As have we are buyers versus sellers.   No better, just to the same level. 

Its simple math, 40 save ops x .71 (Sea percentage) = 28 wins or 12 blown saves, we have 18.  Thats 6 more wins than we got out of it.   I realize thats likely a little bit over simplifying it, but its also no completely inaccurate either.

Plus, its likely the easiest and cheapest to fix and the one thing the front office has made an obvious and conscious decision to ignore making it a self inflicted wound and all the more frustrating.

No, it isnt the only reason, just what i consider  to be the most obvious one.

YES -we all see the problem in our own way . How is the bullpen to blame when our starters can't get out of the fourth inning or fifth inning on a regular basis ..Early in the season and if I have to I will just go over the stats I had reviewed , but the starters struggled too often too early this season . 

We can debate what came first the chicken or the egg - but there isn't just one problem here - thats clearly true . But "on paper" is a bullshit term . On paper our starters earned run average hold up pretty well but early in the season Skaggs was hitting 90 pitches somewhere in the fourth inning and the same goes for the rest of them . Too many pitches too damn early in games , too damn often . Even casual baseball viewers know if you are going to the pen that often early in the season they will be dead armed by the heat of the summer .

Offensively -the Angels play out like a decent offensive team but again -stats can be misleading .

I said this early in the year when the debate arose about blown saves - THEY DO NOT HIT ENOUGH . !!! You can't score 3 runs or less in half your games and expect to win a large percentage of those games . Certainly 2 runs or less seem extremely impossible to pull off and the Angels have a large amount of games scoring two runs or less .

When the Angels line up performs as they are expected to perform - scoring four or more runs a game AND their bullpen blows those games then you have me convinced that that is the major problem but not at this point .  

The on base percentages are f***ing horrible .. The Angels don't steal bases anymore - they don't hit behind the runners to make productive outs . Todays numbers are dictating a batters swing should have an certain angle to hit more flies , less grounders .  But we simply don't hit - we get guys to join the team with a history of hitting and then they no longer hit ..

Its not that Calhoun was bad at the plate- he was disgustingly bad and only marginally better were Cozart - Kinsler and Valbuena .. You can't have four highly paid hitters in one lineup batting .220 or less who can't spell walk -let alone take one ..The one solid addition at the plate this year was  Ohtani and he wasn't playing every night .

The games start here after 10:00pm on the east coast - I watch these performances until 1:00 am and then scream into my pillow so as to not wake the neighbors ...

We can't beat the WhiteSox now ? Are there any games scheduled against high school teams soon ? We might have a chance .

 

 

 

 

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I think @Jeff Fletcher nailed down a lot of the flaws. The fanbase expects every reliever to be Mariano Rivera, every outing. That's just not what happens. They also lose their minds when the starter gives up a couple runs, like they are supposed to be pitching shutouts each game. That just isn't happening, either.

The bullpen flaws would be far less pronounced the fewer innings they are called to the mound. This season has been too many short outings by starters and bullpen games to cover the decimated starting pitching depth. So what could be a very effective bullpen when you selectively choose which receiver appears when, with the best results matchup, is replaced with, is there someone out there that hasn't pitched today? Yeah, bring that guy in.

There is an old saying, familiarity breeds contempt. We are way too familiar with the bullpen this season. It's not their fault, it just what is happening.

 

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14 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Honestly, the Angels offense, rotation and bullpen are all sort of mediocre and middle of the pack. None of it is good, none of it horrible. 

That's why they've been hovering around .500.

They are exactly the sum of their parts.

Being .500 seems a lot worse because of the division they are in. If they were .500 in the NL, they'd be 4-6 games out of a playoff spot and the narrative would be a lot different.

Or the putrid AL Central

I imagine that no one pegged the AL West to have the best winning % (currently around 50 games over .500) in MLB at this point, and it's not close. 

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16 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Looked it up....

The Angels have 18 blown saves in 17 games (they had two in one game). They are 6-11 in those games.

Of the 11 losses, in 5 of those games they scored 3 runs or fewer. Major league teams win 21 percent of their games when they score 3 runs or fewer. You are supposed to lose those games.

Also, 9 of the blown saves happened in the 6th or 7th innings.

 

In those blown save games -did the Angels respond with more runs from the sixth inning on ?   Lets say the Angels are winning 3-1 after five but lose 4-3 are we letting the bullpen take full responsibility for that particular loss ? 

Injuries have hurt the relievers and starters but the offense has been relatively intact for most of the year - so there is no excuse for the low numbers . And overall team stats can be shady .

The Angels score 15 runs in a three game series --I would think they won 2 of 3 at the least  but suppose the scored 12 in one game - two in the next then one run . So they explode for one huge win and lose the other two games ... Statistically 15 runs gives you a 5 run average -which is awesome but in reality your offense failed two of those three games ..

That is what the Angels are to me - one game pile on stats then disappear the next few ...

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22 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Honestly, the Angels offense, rotation and bullpen are all sort of mediocre and middle of the pack. None of it is good, none of it horrible. 

That's why they've been hovering around .500.

They are exactly the sum of their parts.

Being .500 seems a lot worse because of the division they are in. If they were .500 in the NL, they'd be 4-6 games out of a playoff spot and the narrative would be a lot different.

Middle of the pack offensively I can live with if you have a boatload of rookies or young players learning the game . when you are paying roughly 100 million plus for this offense -it is disgraceful .

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4 hours ago, DJO said:

Middle of the pack offensively I can live with if you have a boatload of rookies or young players learning the game . when you are paying roughly 100 million plus for this offense -it is disgraceful .

I am so happy Arte is the one paying for that offense and not you or me.  

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6 hours ago, DJO said:

In those blown save games -did the Angels respond with more runs from the sixth inning on ?   Lets say the Angels are winning 3-1 after five but lose 4-3 are we letting the bullpen take full responsibility for that particular loss ? 

I think Fletcher pointed out teams that score 3 runs or less only win about 30% of those games. Maybe not fully responsible, even a little unfair but when the scorecard is posted the pitching staff always takes the loss. 

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