Should the Angels be better or...

[stormngt]

59 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Well, last year they won 80 games. They didn’t really add any pitchers besides Ohtani (who was an unknown and had a bad spring. Even if you didn’t buy that he was a bust as a pitcher, it was reasonable to think he may be a back-end type guy his rookie year and then get better.) Even if you assumed every pitcher would be healthy (a big if) the only one you knew would be good was Richards. 

The offense had hope of being better, but it was based on a full year of Upton, Cozart and Kinsler. Cozart was coming off a career year, far above anything he’d done before, and he was moving to a new tougher ballpark. Kinsler was coming off his worst year and 35. It was a safe bet they’d do better in those 3 spots because they were awful last year, but a dramatic improvement seemed optimistic. 

I figured going from 80 to 86ish was realistic. 

Also, on paper it looked like 86-87 wins might get you the wild card. The Twins won 86 last year. 

Didnt add any pitchers?  How did Skaggs, Heaney, and Tropeano do last year!

The bullpen was the biggest factor killing the team; however, it is true the underperformance from Calhoun, Young, Valbueno, and Cozart also had a big part.   

[Angel Oracle]

Maybe Billy needs to focus on pitching in the first two rounds of next season's draft?   They have enough good position players on the farm now.  

How many OFers does a farm need?    (Adell, Marsh, Walsh, Adams, Knowles, Deveaux, etc.)

How many INFers does a farm need?    (Rengifo, Ward, formerly Fletcher during the draft, Thaiss, Walsh, Jackson, Rivas, etc.)   

They need more GOOD pitching prospects!!!!!  Especially in the TJS era!

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 hours ago, Tank said:

Speaking of, when is Cozart due back? It's been so long I do t even remember why he's out.

February

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, ScottT said:

Even the team they have run out there "should" be getting better results.  https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/standings/.  As good or better than the Mariners.  

The Angels have under-performed their own pythag by a few wins, but you cant account for another team being out of their mind lucky which is what has happened.    The Mariners are 20 games above .500 .vs grading out as a .500 team.   Fangraphs,  538.com, BBprospectus.com, pretty much everyone out there has put out a piece recently pointing out how ridiculously lucky they have been to date.

1 hour ago, ScottT said:

The schedule is also something to consider. While I 'm baffled by the success of the Mariners  and A's, they are having success.  The Angels have had one of the toughest schedules thus far and there's still quite a few left against their AL West opponents. 

In the predictions thread I mentioned the A's the team I was worried about.  They had a lot of arms in the system, some underrated players and a solid core.   The two guys at the corners looked like guys they could build around and that's exactly what they have played like.  Two mid 20s guys putting up 120 OPS+ seasons at positions where the Angels have gotten AP's 98 OPS and Valbuena's 60.    

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

22 minutes ago, stormngt said:

The bullpen was the biggest factor killing the team; however, it is true the underperformance from Calhoun, Young, Valbueno, and Cozart also had a big part.   

Calhoun, Kinsler. and Cozart under performed expectations but Young and Valbuena performed much as I expected they would in February. Which I wanted Luis and Marte gone even before spring training started.

[Inside Pitch]

18 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Maybe Billy needs to focus on pitching in the first two rounds of next season's draft?   They have enough good position players on the farm now.  

How many OFers does a farm need?    (Adell, Marsh, Walsh, Adams, Knowles, Deveaux, etc.)

How many INFers does a farm need?    (Rengifo, Ward, formerly Fletcher during the draft, Thaiss, Walsh, Jackson, Rivas, etc.)   

They need more GOOD pitching prospects!!!!!  Especially in the TJS era!

You don't draft for need in MLB, not unless you are sure of what your needs will be in 3 years.  FF to 2021, there is no guarantee Trout is still an Angel, you don't know if Simmons is still around -- you know AP is finally gone but still no guarantees with Ward of Thaiss -- hopefully we get to see A LOT of both of them after the deadline.  Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see them be a little more balanced and if there is an outstanding pitcher available I hope they consider drafting him but I really don't want them to go away from the whole BPA philosophy.   It would actually be depressing if they did.

Also -- it's sort of silly to question how many IFers the farm needs.   Coming into this season Fletcher's performance projected him as no better than a UTIF -- his power potential still really doesn't paint him as being much better than that.  Ward was still a C until ST... beyond that neither Ward nor Thaiss really looked like a front line starter on a playoff caliber team -- MLB players, fine -- but far from cornerstone guys and until they prove to be that the team should still be looking to find that sort of player -- preferably from within.   it's also worth pointing out that the farm system at one point had Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood, Alexi Cassillas, Alexi Amarista, and Alberto Callaspo all capable of playing SS..  Aybar became the guy, Wood busted but the two Alexi's and Alberto Callaspo were all initially moved for arms -- Bulger, JC Romero, Frieri.   Then they had to trade pitching to get Callaspo back.

Anyway -- I'm sure we'll see the team look for more pitching in the draft, but the utter lack of position players up and down the system really needed to be addressed -- still kinda does.

[floplag]

3 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Jeff tweeted something a few weeks ago saying we've each blow about the same amount of saves, I believe it was 15 but this was like 2 weeks ago or so.

But I agreed with you that it's coming down to the saves.

unless they have blown a shit ton of late, that cant be right.  i havent been following them much but earlier in the season they were in the 70% wise and we were in the 50s.  Its what put us in the hole we are trying to dig out

Just checked, was curious as of today....
Sea:  39 saves out of 55 save chances, 16 blown, 70.91% converted.  #5 in AL
LAA:  22 saves out of 40 chances, 55%.  We have the second most blown saves behind the Twins,  and the second worse percentage also behind Min

out of curiosity, Oak 29 saves out of 38 chances, 76.32%  #3 in AL

Top 2, NY and Bos

One need not look much firther than this number to understand this season.

[floplag]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

And luck quotient, which may be running out as the A'th are just 2.5 games back and charging with their own 1-2-3 lights out late innings group (Trivino, Familia, Treinen).

those 2 things are mutually inclusive in my opinion. 

[Angel Oracle]

36 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

You don't draft for need in MLB, not unless you are sure of what your needs will be in 3 years.  FF to 2021, there is no guarantee Trout is still an Angel, you don't know if Simmons is still around -- you know AP is finally gone but still no guarantees with Ward of Thaiss -- hopefully we get to see A LOT of both of them after the deadline.  Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see them be a little more balanced and if there is an outstanding pitcher available I hope they consider drafting him but I really don't want them to go away from the whole BPA philosophy.   It would actually be depressing if they did.

Also -- it's sort of silly to question how many IFers the farm needs.   Coming into this season Fletcher's performance projected him as no better than a UTIF -- his power potential still really doesn't paint him as being much better than that.  Ward was still a C until ST... beyond that neither Ward nor Thaiss really looked like a front line starter on a playoff caliber team -- MLB players, fine -- but far from cornerstone guys and until they prove to be that the team should still be looking to find that sort of player -- preferably from within.   it's also worth pointing out that the farm system at one point had Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood, Alexi Cassillas, Alexi Amarista, and Alberto Callaspo all capable of playing SS..  Aybar became the guy, Wood busted but the two Alexi's and Alberto Callaspo were all initially moved for arms -- Bulger, JC Romero, Frieri.   Then they had to trade pitching to get Callaspo back.

Anyway -- I'm sure we'll see the team look for more pitching in the draft, but the utter lack of position players up and down the system really needed to be addressed -- still kinda does.

So it is accurate then, that 5-6 years is what it would TRULY take to build up a farm that Reagins and Dip*ssy destroyed?

[Inside Pitch]

8 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

So it is accurate then, that 5-6 years is what it would TRULY take to build up a farm that Reagins and Dip*ssy destroyed?

Not that it will take that long to rebuild but for there to be the kind of depth we used to have -- yeah

[Ohtani&Trout]

4 hours ago, Dick B Back said:

Based on the player performances and injuries, we are lucky to have Sosh keeping these dudes around .500.

 

The Angels are a game under .500 despite having a +22 run differential.

So.....no.

[AngelsFaninGA]

It would be nice to have a season where we didn't say "oh well, there's always next year" by June. It's like every year no matter how many improvements we make we're still 4 hitters short of a functional offense, the pitchers are still perpetually injured, and the bullpen is still awful. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

It would be nice to have a season where we didn't say "oh well, there's always next year" by June. It's like every year no matter how many improvements we make we're still 4 hitters short of a functional offense, the pitchers are still perpetually injured, and the bullpen is still awful. 

The Angels made the playoffs in 14 and they were the last team eliminated in 12, 15 and 17. 

 

[Docwaukee]

32 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The Angels made the playoffs in 14 and they were the last team eliminated in 12, 15 and 17. 

 

that sucks.  

[Docwaukee]

37 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The Angels made the playoffs in 14 and they were the last team eliminated in 12, 15 and 17. 

 

That 2012 was really good.  Would have loved to see them in the post season.  Bullpen killed that season.  

[Angelsjunky]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

what we needed to be a 90+ win team

- Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Ohtani, Shoe, Trop, JC Ramirez for a whole season.  2 of 7 so far.  5 of 7 are either out or have hardly pitched.

 

Will nitpick this a bit. The Angels wouldn't need whole seasons from all of those guys, just more than two. They have Heaney and Skaggs; add in at least one of a healthy Richards or Ohtani and Trope or Ramirez, and the rotation improves substantially.

Barria's emergence offsets the Ramirez/Trope injuries somewhat, but there's no way around the loss of their two "aces."

But the larger factors are the crappy bullpen and disappointing performances from the veteran hitters (Cozart, Kinsler, Calhoun especially).

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

That 2012 was really good.  Would have loved to see them in the post season.  Bullpen killed that season.  

[Dick B Back]

3 hours ago, Ohtani&Trout said:

The Angels are a game under .500 despite having a +22 run differential.

So.....no.

Without Sosh they could be 10 games under .500 and a -20 run differential. Guess we’ll never know, huh.

[Stradling]

5 hours ago, floplag said:

unless they have blown a shit ton of late, that cant be right.  i havent been following them much but earlier in the season they were in the 70% wise and we were in the 50s.  Its what put us in the hole we are trying to dig out

Just checked, was curious as of today....
Sea:  39 saves out of 55 save chances, 16 blown, 70.91% converted.  #5 in AL
LAA:  22 saves out of 40 chances, 55%.  We have the second most blown saves behind the Twins,  and the second worse percentage also behind Min

out of curiosity, Oak 29 saves out of 38 chances, 76.32%  #3 in AL

Top 2, NY and Bos

One need not look much firther than this number to understand this season.

If you are saying the 18 blown saves is the reason you would be wrong in my opinion.  The problem is the fact we only have 40 chances.  If we had 18 blown saves and we had 55 chances we would be where the Mariners are.  The fact is the offense has sucked which has put us in a position to have less save opportunities.  At least that is my opinion.  

[floplag]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If you are saying the 18 blown saves is the reason you would be wrong in my opinion.  The problem is the fact we only have 40 chances.  If we had 18 blown saves and we had 55 chances we would be where the Mariners are.  The fact is the offense has sucked which has put us in a position to have less save opportunities.  At least that is my opinion.  

Of course we would, as the save percentage would be significantly higher, which IS the problem.  
If they had saved 70%, thats 6 more games won, were in the race

 

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Of course we would, as the save percentage would be significantly higher, which IS the problem.  
If they had saved 70%, thats 6 more games won, were in the race

 

There are multiple issues, but the worst issue in my opinion is how many times we have scored 3 runs or less.  I read it in a thread lately and we are something like 10-40 or something silly like that.  Maybe it is 10-30, regardless it is bad.  

[Stradling]

We are 11-41 when we score 3 runs or less.  That means in half the games we have scored 3 runs or less.  

[Cdaniel]

8 hours ago, Stradling said:

We are 11-41 when we score 3 runs or less.  That means in half the games we have scored 3 runs or less.  

You  both are right.  We need our offense to be more consistent and we need a lockdown closer.

[floplag]

11 hours ago, Stradling said:

There are multiple issues, but the worst issue in my opinion is how many times we have scored 3 runs or less.  I read it in a thread lately and we are something like 10-40 or something silly like that.  Maybe it is 10-30, regardless it is bad.  

There are many reasons the team doesnt have a better record, no doubt, and we all seem to want to point to the ones that support our opinion.   In my view the part most responsible, and most directly impactful, is the bullpen, but you could legitimately argue your point or those who feel the starters havent been good or whatever, and all would be right.  It comes down to the level of impact.

The reason I focus so hard on the pen is that if they had performed just to the level of the competition, we would still be in the race even with all those other concerns.   How many save ops isnt the problem, if they had converted on them the same percentage of the time that the Ms or As have we are buyers versus sellers.   No better, just to the same level. 

Its simple math, 40 save ops x .71 (Sea percentage) = 28 wins or 12 blown saves, we have 18.  Thats 6 more wins than we got out of it.   I realize thats likely a little bit over simplifying it, but its also no completely inaccurate either.

Plus, its likely the easiest and cheapest to fix and the one thing the front office has made an obvious and conscious decision to ignore making it a self inflicted wound and all the more frustrating.

No, it isnt the only reason, just what i consider  to be the most obvious one.

[Griffey's Corner]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

There are many reasons the team doesnt have a better record, no doubt, and we all seem to want to point to the ones that support our opinion.   In my view the part most responsible, and most directly impactful, is the bullpen, but you could legitimately argue your point or those who feel the starters havent been good or whatever, and all would be right.  It comes down to the level of impact.

The reason I focus so hard on the pen is that if they had performed just to the level of the competition, we would still be in the race even with all those other concerns.   How many save ops isnt the problem, if they had converted on them the same percentage of the time that the Ms or As have we are buyers versus sellers.   No better, just to the same level. 

Its simple math, 40 save ops x .71 (Sea percentage) = 28 wins or 12 blown saves, we have 18.  Thats 6 more wins than we got out of it.   I realize thats likely a little bit over simplifying it, but its also no completely inaccurate either.

Plus, its likely the easiest and cheapest to fix and the one thing the front office has made an obvious and conscious decision to ignore making it a self inflicted wound and all the more frustrating.

No, it isnt the only reason, just what i consider  to be the most obvious one.

Very good post. Hard to disagree.