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% Chances That The Angels Make The Playoffs?


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>1%

Offense needs to perform and pitching needs to stay healthy...that's it.

Trout has had 2 HR and 4 RBI in a month.  Some may be due to injury but, as has been shown, he doesn't get pitches to hit, so, if the pitcher is down 2-0 or 3-1, he just ends up walking him because there is nothing else behind him to scare you.  Additionally, as stated in the Mark Wicker thread: "Mike Trout has come to the plate 189 times with the bases empty, most in baseball".  There is no one on when he comes up and there is no one behind him that can knock him in when he gets on via walk.

Problem is, that won't change with Kinsler (.280 OBP .647 OPS), Valbuena (.250 OBP .594 OPS), Marte (.295 OBP .724 OPS), Fletcher (.284 OBP .639 OPS), or Maldonado (.297 OBP .646 OPS) making up a majority of the line-up.  The Angels really need to produce something out of top 6 of 

1) Simmons

2) Trout

3) Upton

4) Ohtani

5) Pujols

6) Calhoun 

You can hide Maldonado in there but Fletcher has to start to at least get on base or try JMF or Rengifo at 2B and they should think about promoting Ward to play 3B to see if he can carry over his surge this year into the MLB line-up.  

As for pitching, the stating rotation should be solid with Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Tropeano, and Pena but our above average BP will continue to be exposed in high leverage situations the more they have to be thrown out there.

So, in short, we need to score enough to allow enough room for the bullpen to be good, not great, and ultimately stay healthy.

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according to the actual math, it's 2.4%.  

There is a path, but it's very unlikely.  

Simmons needs to hold steady, Calhoun has to keep doing what he's doing since returning, and Upton has to go on a 2.5 month hot streak.  Valbuena and Kinsler have to go and Albert needs to have a strong stretch where he kills it with RISP.  Fletcher and Ward or JMF or whoever else they decide to put at 2b/3b need to be well better than their predecessors.  

Trop and Shoe need to come back and complement Heaney, Skaggs, Barria and Pena in the rotation.  They'll need to pitch well, but it'll be the offense that carries this team if we're going to do anything.  

 The bullpen needs to pull a rabbit out of their hat and be strangely good anchored by guys like Robles, Cole etc.  

Basically, everything has to go right for 2.5 months and we could be 15 games over .500 during that stretch.    

We need to go at least 40-25 over our last 65 games which would get us to 89 wins.  

We had a legit shot over our last 21 games and went 8-13.  Scoring 78 runs (3.7/game) over that spread during Trout's power outage.  

Works out to about a +90 run differential for the rest of the year or we need to win a ton of close games.  

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Can't wait to see what Eppler does between now and the deadline, maybe even the August deadline. 

There are so many different directions he can go, any of which could have a huge impact on how the Angels play. 
He could sell off vets and open more playing time for youth - Ward, Thaiss, Fletcher - and they could rally and play better than the stopgaps. 
He could add cheaply as he's wont to do and the small gains, coupled with the possible pen resurgence and some upswing from Upton, Calhoun, and Kinsler could bring them back into things.
Or he could be bold, trade off some major prospect aspects, add a legit frontline arm, a smart rental like Moustakas, and a pen arm, and they could storm back into. 

Really any route seems as likely as the other at this point, and no reason any of the three couldn't still result in a WC push.

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19 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

>1%

Offense needs to perform and pitching needs to stay healthy...that's it.

Trout has had 2 HR and 4 RBI in a month.  Some may be due to injury but, as has been shown, he doesn't get pitches to hit, so, if the pitcher is down 2-0 or 3-1, he just ends up walking him because there is nothing else behind him to scare you.  Additionally, as stated in the Mark Wicker thread: "Mike Trout has come to the plate 189 times with the bases empty, most in baseball".  There is no one on when he comes up and there is no one behind him that can knock him in when he gets on via walk.

Problem is, that won't change with Kinsler (.280 OBP .647 OPS), Valbuena (.250 OBP .594 OPS), Marte (.295 OBP .724 OPS), Fletcher (.284 OBP .639 OPS), or Maldonado (.297 OBP .646 OPS) making up a majority of the line-up.  The Angels really need to produce something out of top 6 of 

1) Simmons

2) Trout

3) Upton

4) Ohtani

5) Pujols

6) Calhoun  

You can hide Maldonado in there but Fletcher has to start to at least get on base or try JMF or Rengifo at 2B and they should think about promoting Ward to play 3B to see if he can carry over his surge this year into the MLB line-up.  

As for pitching, the stating rotation should be solid with Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Tropeano, and Pena but our above average BP will continue to be exposed in high leverage situations the more they have to be thrown out there.

So, in short, we need to score enough to allow enough room for the bullpen to be good, not great, and ultimately stay healthy.

Because Simba prefers to not lead off: 

Vs. RHP:

1) Calhoun (red hot since returning)

2) Simba

3) Trout

4) Ohtani

5) Pujols

6) Upton  

Vs. LHP:

1) Fletcher

2) Simba

3) Trout

4) Upton

5) Pujols

6) Calhoun

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3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Can't wait to see what Eppler does between now and the deadline, maybe even the August deadline. 

There are so many different directions he can go, any of which could have a huge impact on how the Angels play. 
He could sell off vets and open more playing time for youth - Ward, Thaiss, Fletcher - and they could rally and play better than the stopgaps. 
He could add cheaply as he's wont to do and the small gains, coupled with the possible pen resurgence and some upswing from Upton, Calhoun, and Kinsler could bring them back into things.
Or he could be bold, trade off some major prospect aspects, add a legit frontline arm, a smart rental like Moustakas, and a pen arm, and they could storm back into. 

Really any route seems as likely as the other at this point, and no reason any of the three couldn't still result in a WC push.

I, personally, don't think the 'add' scenario is likely at all.  We're definitely not going to rent a player when we're nine games back of just squeaking in.  Our biggest need would be for a front line starter.  One with a modicum of club control will cost you a kings ransom at the deadline as there are several other clubs looking for the same thing.  

The youth resurgence seems like our best shot.  

What I think will happen is that he'll get a nice bounty for Parker over the next couple weeks.  I think he'll also move Alvarez.  

Then, when there's some roster shifting due to trades etc, he'll pick up a couple pen pieces from the discount shelf.  

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Just now, Angel Oracle said:

Because Simba prefers to not lead off: 

Vs. RHP:

1) Calhoun (red hot since returning)

2) Simba

3) Trout

4) Ohtani

5) Pujols

6) Upton  

Vs. LHP:

1) Fletcher

2) Simba

3) Trout

4) Upton

5) Pujols

6) Calhoun

Then bat Simmons 2nd and Trout 3rd...problem is finding someone who can lead off.  There is no one.  Even with his post-DL surge, Calhoun has an OBP of .320 and Fletcher has an OBP of .284.  We still have the issue of no one being on base for Trout when he's up.  They need a legit lead-off hitter and they don't have one...Simmons is the closest.  Alternatively, besides Pujols, the run producers aren't "run producing" when men (er, Trout) are on base.  A more radical idea would be to have Ohtani lead off and have Trout hit 2nd with Simmons, Upton, Pujols, and Calhoun to follow.  7-9 would still be a wasteland but Ohtani can get on base and has speed.

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4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I, personally, don't think the 'add' scenario is likely at all.  We're definitely not going to rent a player when we're nine games back of just squeaking in.  Our biggest need would be for a front line starter.  One with a modicum of club control will cost you a kings ransom at the deadline as there are several other clubs looking for the same thing.  

The youth resurgence seems like our best shot.  

What I think will happen is that he'll get a nice bounty for Parker over the next couple weeks.  I think he'll also move Alvarez.  

Then, when there's some roster shifting due to trades etc, he'll pick up a couple pen pieces from the discount shelf.  

Yeah, I think our best shot at a front line starter is in the offseason...and I can't see us getting rentals.  BP pieces are definitely on the table to be traded with desperate contenders looking for BP help.

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8 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

I think weakening the team at the trade deadline would be a huge mistake if you’re trying to get Trout to extend his contract. 

You either stay pat or make a play to improve the team now and the future. 

I think Trout and his representatives understand baseball.  Trading off Parker, Kinsler and whatever else at this point isn't going to spook him.  Getting in a bidding war for a player at the deadline where you are wasting half a season of their control makes no sense unless you don't think you'll ever have a shot at a similar player of that caliber.  And even still, it's probably a bad idea to overpay at this point.  

we've had some poor performances and major injuries.  take your lumps.  hit reset.  If you can go on a run in August and someone wants to dump some salary on you at the waiver deadline then maybe consider it.  

 

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34 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I, personally, don't think the 'add' scenario is likely at all.  We're definitely not going to rent a player when we're nine games back of just squeaking in.  Our biggest need would be for a front line starter.  One with a modicum of club control will cost you a kings ransom at the deadline as there are several other clubs looking for the same thing.  

The youth resurgence seems like our best shot.  

What I think will happen is that he'll get a nice bounty for Parker over the next couple weeks.  I think he'll also move Alvarez.  

Then, when there's some roster shifting due to trades etc, he'll pick up a couple pen pieces from the discount shelf.  

That's what intrigues me most about this deadline and offseason. Eppler has been fairly predictable - maybe not the specifics, but he's always gone with safe vet stopgaps, shrewd minor deals and waiver claims, and had never trading really much of anything of value, while still managing to bring in some productive players in trades like Upton and Simmons without over-paying in prospect currency. 

So many new variables are in play now that haven't been in years before. Sosh's final year, Eppler's looming end of contract, the Trout window is much more narrow, the '19 team doesn't look all that much different than the '18 team, with two potential TORP '19 arms in Richards/Ohtani basically out of the picture, as well as the bevy of prospects up and down the farm - we have the depth to make trades, we have young players who can step in to the big-league club. 

I'd like to see some faith and playing time committed to the youth. We haven't tried, or been able to try, that route for years. It may mean the MLB team suffers through some growing pains this year and next, but at least it'll be cheap and keep our options open. 

Prices are always way up on long-term assets at the deadline, but I could see a surprising move for a SP who isn't really being discussed or rumored as being available. I keep coming back to someone like Jose Urena as a possibility.

 

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2 hours ago, Griffey's Corner said:

Just curious what the other members think? 2nd question is what in your opinion most needs to happen for them to get going and make the playoffs? 

 

I would say they still have a 5% chance. But they really need for the offense to wake up.

I think about 10%. I think we need more offense also, but how about some good luck? We're due for some.

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39 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think Trout and his representatives understand baseball.  Trading off Parker, Kinsler and whatever else at this point isn't going to spook him.  Getting in a bidding war for a player at the deadline where you are wasting half a season of their control makes no sense unless you don't think you'll ever have a shot at a similar player of that caliber.  And even still, it's probably a bad idea to overpay at this point.  

we've had some poor performances and major injuries.  take your lumps.  hit reset.  If you can go on a run in August and someone wants to dump some salary on you at the waiver deadline then maybe consider it.  

And I also don't think he's going to be scared into leaving if the Angels have a very minor sell and play with youth the remainder of this year and next, and hold off making any big moves. 

If Trout signs another contract here, he'll do so knowing that he'd be playing alongside Ward, Thaiss, Fletcher, Adell, Canning, Hermosillo, etc. and trying to win with the next generation - not Kole, Parker, Maldonado, etc. Being exposed to that a year ahead of schedule shouldn't affect him, and if it does, it could do so in a positive way just as easily it could negatively.

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