Eppler's New BP Guys

[totdprods]

20 hours ago, 2020worldseries said:

Will eppler give rondon a shot?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/bruce-rondon-elects-free-agency.html

I hope so - the ERA is ugly at 8.49, but peripherals indicate there's some hope - his FIP is only 3.72 - he's just walking way too many and allowing too many hits, but the White Sox defense has been awful. 

[totdprods]

Definitely some interesting things going on with the pen...

Blake Parker
Last 30 games: 31.1 IP, 24 hits, 2.30 ERA, 9 walks, 39 strikeouts.

Cam Bedrosian
Since his May 30th meltdown in Detroit, he's pitched in 19 games (18.2 IP) to a 1.45 ERA, .235 BAA, and 6 walks to 18 strikeouts. 

Hansel Robles
Since joining the Angels, 11.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts.

Justin Anderson
First 19 games: 19.1 IP, 14 hits, 16 walks, 27 strikeouts. 
Last 15 games: 15.1 IP, 16 hits, 6 walks, 18 strikeouts. 
He may be realizing he doesn't have to strike everyone out and can trust his defense a bit. He seems to have really tightened up his stuff and started harnessing his command, and is starting to make that evolution from a thrower to a pitcher.

Noe Ramirez
After only allowing one home run in his first 28 G/32.1 IP, he's allowed eight in his last 17 G/21.2 IP.
He's been consistently striking out guys and missing bats (65 K and 46 hits allowed in 54 IP) but has been stung by the long ball of late, perhaps due to overuse.

Taylor Cole
Sure, he's lost two games, but 10.1 IP allowing only 7 hits, 2 walks, and one homer while striking out 12 is cool. They were semi-blowout appearances, but his SLC numbers hinted that there was something there: 47.2 IP, only 43 hits allowed (4 HRs), and a decent 22:55 BB to K ratio.  

Oliver Drake
Was pretty awful when he first arrived in June: 2.2 IP, 8 hits, 10.13 ERA...
but looked great in SLC: 7.2 IP, 3 hits, 1.17 ERA, 0.52 WHIP, 1 walk to 8 Ks...
and has looked better since he came back: 4 IP, 7 hits, 2 ER, 0 walks, 4 strikeouts. 

[BackUpTheTruck]

I'm excited with the way the bullpen is shaping up next year. We still need the sure thing in the 9th inning.

[totdprods]

Just now, BackUpTheTruck said:

I'm excited with the way the bullpen is shaping up next year. We still need the sure thing in the 9th inning.

Well, as good as these guys are doing now, they could also all blow next year. Just the way relievers go. 

What is encouraging is that Eppler seems to again be showing that he really does know how to build a pen - obviously, it was shaky for a good part of this year, but more often than not he's been finding the right guys. I think if the rotation wasn't continuously decimated by injuries or the offense wasn't half MIA, the pen would never be a problem. 

[Angel Oracle]

I'm leaning towards wanting to see trades involving Parker and Bedrock Jr., and rebuild the pen for 2019 around Anderson (much improved command), Robles, Cole, and converting starters Shoe and Meyer to the pen.   Then sign an established closer in the off-season.

I'm still a little leery of how BedRock Jr. handles late innings work. 

[totdprods]

12 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I'm leaning towards wanting to see trades involving Parker and Bedrock Jr., and rebuild the pen for 2019 around Anderson (much improved command), Robles, Cole, and converting starters Shoe and Meyer to the pen.   Then sign an established closer in the off-season.

I'm still a little leery of how BedRock Jr. handles late innings work. 

Good thing about Cole, Anderson, Pena, and McGuire, and I think Robles is they have options still. Not sure if Robles' remaining is for this year or next. 
That, to me, is a good batch of guys to start with for the '19 pen/spot starter depth.

Alvarez, Noe, Bedrosian, and of course Parker don't have options - we have to carry them all season next year to keep them, just like this year. That's a significant chunk of a bullpen that holds fixed roster spots, especially when I really only trust Alvarez (who was at least steady before this season) and Parker, at least as a high-lev option. I don't know if Bedrosian is steady enough to guarantee a spot, and while Noe has done well, I could see him going south as easily as I could see him staying steady or improving. 

If you get an offer an anyone without options it's definitely worth considering. 

[Docwaukee]

Anderson and Cole have 3 

Pena, Paredes, and McGuire have 2

Robles has 1 

Drake has 0 

[Lou]

18 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Anderson and Cole have 3 

Pena, Paredes, and McGuire have 2

Robles has 1 

Drake has 0 

What are balls, Alex?

[EnglishCop]

On 7/9/2018 at 11:55 AM, UndertheHalo said:

It’s never been terrible like the narrative here said.  We have some good arms that’s are over used.  That’s the problem. We’ve had way too many short outings from starters.  Partially to be expected with the injuries our group of starters are returning from.  I’m not trying to give Eppler a pass.  I think he could have done better getting the group of pitchers together.  But sometimes what makes sense is seeing what you have and letting the chips fall.  You just have to see what you have.  Anyway, with the usage guys like Ramirez and Alvarez have had.  It’s pretty predictable they’d have bumps in the road. 

 

On 7/9/2018 at 5:39 PM, Jeff Fletcher said:

This looks like something I would write.

 

On 7/9/2018 at 5:40 PM, Taylor said:

Although Jeff, I think you'd use the correct version of to/too. 

I assume that Jeff would have just used the English language rather than whatever UTH employed.

"We have some good arms that’s are over used."

C'mon, @UndertheHalo.

[UndertheHalo]

8 minutes ago, EnglishCop said:

 

 

I assume that Jeff would have just used the English language rather than whatever UTH employed.

"We have some good arms that’s are over used."

C'mon, @UndertheHalo.

I am a failure.  I will strive to be better.  

[2020worldseries]

Eppler doin work.. Robles has the stuff to be a 7th/8th inning guy...

 

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Hansel Robles couldn't get anyone out with the Mets and pointed to the air when he gave up HR after HR. Now with the Angels his ERA is 2.38 and he's pitching in big situations.

[totdprods]

Since June 1st: 
Blake Parker 
25 G, 26 IP, 18 H, 6 HR, 9 BB, 29 K - 3.81 ERA
Cam Bedrosian 
28 G, 27 IP, 23 H, 1 HR, 9 BB, 27 K - 2.00 ERA
Justin Anderson
25 G, 25.1 IP, 23 H, 1 HR, 16 BB, 28 K - 2.84 ERA
Hansel Robles (since joining Angels 6/24)
20 G, 19.1 IP, 15 H, 2 HR, 11 BB, 19 K - 3.26 ERA
Jose Alvarez 
30 G, 23 IP, 23 H, 1 HR, 15 BB, 18 K - 3.52 ERA
Jim Johnson 
14 G, 14.2 IP, 12 H, 1 HR, 5 BB, 9 K - 1.84 ERA
Noe Ramirez
24 G, 30 IP, 30 H, 11 HR, 11 BB, 34 K - 6.30 ERA - quite the tale of two seasons - prior, 32.1 IP, 13 BB, 39 K, 3.34 ERA, and only 1 HR allowed
Taylor Cole 
7 G, 15.2 IP, 8 H, 1 HR, 5 BB, 16 K - 1.72 ERA

All together, that octet has posted a 3.16 ERA in 181 innings, with 180 strikeouts - and 81 walks.
Surprisingly, only 24 homers allowed - which seems low, until you remember 17 allowed by two relievers (Parker and Ramirez)

Something to consider when thinking about the offseason shopping list...Eppler is starting to show once again that he can build a good pen cheaply. 
Last year he found Norris (4.21 ERA), Petit (2.76 ERA), Hernandez (2.23 ERA), and Parker (2.54 ERA) were found for nothing, not to mention Kirby Yates, even if found success on SDG instead. He also brought back Salas (2.63) for a decent stint and may have found something with Blake Wood, not to mention the contributions of Meyer and Bridwell.
He even had some wins back in '16, with J.C. Ramirez (2.91 ERA in 46.1 IP), Deolis Guerra (3.21 ERA in 53.1 IP), Andrew Bailey (2.38 ERA in 11.1 IP), and A.J. Achter (3.11 ERA in 37.2 IP)

Really, Eppler has had far more trouble finding offense. Escobar, sort of Marte, Eric Young Jr., Upton, and Ohtani have been his only real wins there. With that in mind, it sure makes sense to get Fletcher, Fernandez, and probably some of the Thaiss, Ward, Rengifo, Hermosillo contingent at-bats the rest of this year to see where they slot into next year's offense.

And it's a damn shame we've had so many injuries the last three years, otherwise who knows how strong our staff may have been.

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

Norris (4.21 ERA), Petit (2.76 ERA), Hernandez (2.23 ERA), and Parker (2.54 ERA)

This is a prime example of reliever volatility and one year later. 

Norris 2.93 ERA - that's a drop

Petit 3.10 - that's an increase

Hernandez was traded to the DBacks and his ERA inflated to 4.82 and now with the Reds 1.88 - that's a yoyo

Parker 3.31 ERA - that's an increase

So you bet black or red and it doesn't matter, the odds of picking a winner is the same. Your best reliever last season may crash and burn the next. We've seen that in the free agency market this year so Eppler's dumpster diving proves you can assemble an OK relief corps but there won't be that one standout guy. If you want that guy you may have to play Russian Roulette in free agency with a gun loaded with three in the chamber. 

[Angel Oracle]

In the case of Petit though, the increases are minimal.   He has the same low WHIP that he had here (1.00 this season, 0.95 in 2017), and the ERA is only up by 0.30.

Parker has seen a solid increase in especially his WHIP (1.18 this season, 0.83 in 2017).   His ERA is up, although not nearly as much as Hernandez' increased after the trade.

It is obviously leaning towards a crapshoot type thing.    And I am coming around to agreeing that unless you bring in an automatic like Kimbrel, it is best to not throw bigger money to acquire lead setup men and closers. 

[hangin n wangin]

13 minutes ago, Blarg said:

This is a prime example of reliever volatility and one year later. 

Norris 2.93 ERA - that's a drop

Petit 3.10 - that's an increase

Hernandez was traded to the DBacks and his ERA inflated to 4.82 and now with the Reds 1.88 - that's a yoyo

Parker 3.31 ERA - that's an increase

So you bet black or red and it doesn't matter, the odds of picking a winner is the same. Your best reliever last season may crash and burn the next. We've seen that in the free agency market this year so Eppler's dumpster diving proves you can assemble an OK relief corps but there won't be that one standout guy. If you want that guy you may have to play Russian Roulette in free agency with a gun loaded with three in the chamber. 

It even happens to the best of relievers. See Cody Allen.

[totdprods]

25 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

In the case of Petit though, the increases are minimal.   He has the same low WHIP that he had here (1.00 this season, 0.95 in 2017), and the ERA is only up by 0.30.

Parker has seen a solid decrease in especially his WHIP (1.18 this season, 0.83 in 2017).   His ERA is up, although not nearly as much as Hernandez' increased after the trade.

It is obviously leaning towards a crapshoot type thing.    And I am coming around to agreeing that unless you bring in an automatic like Kimbrel, it is best to not throw bigger money to acquire lead setup men and closers. 

His FIP is way up, 3.71 vs. last year's 2.71, so he's been a little lucky. His K9 dropped significantly - last year, an even 10. This year, down to 7.4 
At his age, I get why Eppler didn't want to commit 2/$10m for him, as much as I would have liked him back. 

Even Kimbrel could fall apart next year. Look at Jansen's struggles this year. For the pen, it's all about having a ton of depth and a ton of flexibility - as many pitchers as possible you can shuttle back and forth until it sticks. 

[totdprods]

41 minutes ago, Blarg said:

This is a prime example of reliever volatility and one year later. 

Norris 2.93 ERA - that's a drop

Petit 3.10 - that's an increase

Hernandez was traded to the DBacks and his ERA inflated to 4.82 and now with the Reds 1.88 - that's a yoyo

Parker 3.31 ERA - that's an increase

So you bet black or red and it doesn't matter, the odds of picking a winner is the same. Your best reliever last season may crash and burn the next. We've seen that in the free agency market this year so Eppler's dumpster diving proves you can assemble an OK relief corps but there won't be that one standout guy. If you want that guy you may have to play Russian Roulette in free agency with a gun loaded with three in the chamber. 

I think Fletcher posted a quote once that said something along the lines of the best way to repair a struggling bullpen was to just bring back the same names the next year. 

[Blarg]

It could be true or not. I said it long ago, relievers are flakes and it holds true for most of them. The outliers are the ones people think are of greater numbers than they are. Those names change over a lot with few still being in that grouping after three years.  

Jansen has had one of the most consistent runs for the last 8 plus seasons and is showing some wear. Still, his ERA is 2.19 even with the occasional blown save. 

The Dodgers have a lot of money tied up in that arm for the next 3 seasons, about $58 million. If he goes South that's a lot of bullpen help they won't be able to afford. 

I just don't see Eppler tying up that much cash into one arm for closing. And I would support that decision because you may be buying a Jansen or Wade Davis.

[totdprods]

Truthfully, Eppler has really hit the mark on pitchers far more often the last three years than not. I'm comfortable letting him go with a similar plan for the '19 pen. 

It's rotation stability, plus some depth and health, that we need, and consistent offense. 

Which hitting coach fixed Kole in Arizona? Get his ass up here.

[Blarg]

Starting pitching is going to be an issue. Richards is gone. You can't really count on Ohtani's elbow. So that leaves Skaggs and Heaney and three other weenies. Sounds like the 70's all over again.

[totdprods]

15 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Starting pitching is going to be an issue. Richards is gone. You can't really count on Ohtani's elbow. So that leaves Skaggs and Heaney and three other weenies. Sounds like the 70's all over again.

And I think it's safe to say Skaggs is going to be one of those SPs who will reliably get a couple 10-day DLs each year, even if just out of an abundance of caution. It'd be silly not to assume one of Suarez, Barria, or Canning won't hit that bump in the road in the next season or two as well.

I'd really like to see a trade for an under-appreciated, value-driven controllable SP, and sign a vet SP. Barria has been fantastic, but I'd be thrilled if we rolled into '19 with him at #6 on our depth chart. Knowing the Angels, he'll be up to #4 within 6 weeks. 

Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, a safe trade SP, a one-year vet FA SP, Barria - with Shoe, Trop, Canning, Suarez to follow.

[Inside Pitch]

15 hours ago, Blarg said:

It could be true or not. I said it long ago, relievers are flakes and it holds true for most of them. The outliers are the ones people think are of greater numbers than they are.

I always LOL when you call RPs flakes....  Not because it's silly or anything like that....  Its just about as good a way of explaining RP volatility as there is.

 

[totdprods]

Brief update on three guys who, with multiple options, will be a big part of the pen next year.

Justin Anderson, since June 27th: 
18 IP, .136 BAA, 1.00 ERA, 6 walks, 22 strikeouts

Taylor Cole
18.1 IP, .186 BAA, 2.95 ERA, 5 walks, 22 strikeouts in 9 games

Williams Jerez
5 IP, one hit, one walk, zero runs, 6 strikeouts

[Troll Daddy]

On 7/8/2018 at 11:13 PM, Troll Daddy said:

I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Anderson yet? His confidence has been growing with each appearance. 

[totdprods]

Initially, Anderson was trying to strike everyone out, and he was all over the place. Effectively wild. Tons of walks, few hits, tons of strikeouts. 

He then had a stretch where he brought it back, the walks dropped, as did the strikeouts, and he was a little more hittable, but he started to find that balance between trusting his stuff, and trusting his defense. It's coming together now. He's striking people out at a well above average, letting his defense do the work, and not walking as many. 

Even if he isn't this good, he came out of nowhere, has far exceeded any expectations I think anyone ever would have had on him anyway, and he has three options. He'll be incredibly useful to this team.