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Sad Stat that explains a lot!


stormngt

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Last night we battled  back and tied it only to see the blowpen give the lead the next half inning.  I started wondering just how often our blowpen led to losses.  So I started calculating our record when we have the lead by 1 run after six innings and our record when we are either tied or winning by 1 run after six.

Leading after 6 inning the Angel's are 6-8. Sorry but that is a sad stat.  Remember the days when the Angel's always won when they entered the 7th with the lead?  

If we entered the 7th inning  tied or winning by 1 our record is 8-14.  

Just to put in perspective:

Had we won all our games in which we led after 6 innings we would be 2 games behind the Astros and 1 game ahead of the Mariners.  (We lost 2 games to both the Astros and Mariners when we had the lead entering the 7th thus the two losses are a 4 game flip).

Yes our offense has failed frequently this year, but over the long haul of the season it has been the blowpen that is cause for the struggles this year.  

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17 minutes ago, TroutTrumbo said:

Very hard to win when the late innings pen guys are totally unreliable and also the offense being Trout, Simmons and seven outs. This team is several players away from being a contender at the moment. Eppler needs to change his strategy on putting together a bullpen and stop signing older plugin types.

I disagree.  They are a prime Scott Shields and KRod away from being a WS contender.  

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4 minutes ago, floplag said:

It explains everything as far as im concerned.
How anyone can defend or condone his approach to the pen is beyond logic.   
We have literally thrown a season where we should have been a playoff contender away over guys that would not have cost all that much in the grand scheme of things.

You keep saying this but ignore the other way doesn’t always work, and this off-season it didn’t work out well and it was expensive.  

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The Angels won hundreds and hundreds of  1 and 2 run  games with a non potent offense, and good (not great) starting pitching. The relief core did their job, and protected leads. The bullpen has been the main problem of this team for years. I simply can't get over how a relief pitcher is unable to handle getting 3 stinking outs. I thought the advantage has always been to the pitcher? It seems to be the other way around with this organization when it comes to relief pitching. Their un-willingness to convert starters to relievers has also cost many pitchers their careers. Meyer, Shoemaker, JC come to mind. These dudes should have been groomed for/ and or stayed relievers. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Support The Local Team said:

The Angels won hundreds and hundreds of  1 and 2 run  games with a non potent offense, and good (not great) starting pitching. The relief core did their jobs, and protected leads. The bullpen has been the main problem of this team for years. 

Good point. A lot of the mid-late 2000s teams had weaker offenses (compared to the big offenses of those times).

But i also think most good teams today have both. Offense and a pen (whereas back then pens were "closer+other guys" while we had dominant set up guys). 

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32 minutes ago, The Boogie Man said:

You keep saying this but ignore the other way doesn’t always work, and this off-season it didn’t work out well and it was expensive.  

Nothing always works, you want everything to be a guarantee as usual.

One guarantee is that dumpster diving virtually always gets you trash.  Occasionally you find treasures, but 99% of the time its just... trash.   Eppler pulled a miracle, everyone thought he was brilliant and was sure he could repeat it, guess what, he didnt.  

If you take away every other malady this team has faced, injuries, slumps... all of fit, and factor in only the poor performance of the pen, change that one thing, just upgrade it to average levels, and we are still very much in this race likely sitting in the playoff spot today.  That, is fact.

So no my friend I'm not ignoring anything, except you on this topic henceforth. 

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3 hours ago, stormngt said:

Last night we battled  back and tied it only to see the blowpen give the lead the next half inning.  I started wondering just how often our blowpen led to losses.  So I started calculating our record when we have the lead by 1 run after six innings and our record when we are either tied or winning by 1 run after six.

Leading after 6 inning the Angel's are 6-8. Sorry but that is a sad stat.  Remember the days when the Angel's always won when they entered the 7th with the lead?  

If we entered the 7th inning  tied or winning by 1 our record is 8-14.  

Just to put in perspective:

Had we won all our games in which we led after 6 innings we would be 2 games behind the Astros and 1 game ahead of the Mariners.  (We lost 2 games to both the Astros and Mariners when we had the lead entering the 7th thus the two losses are a 4 game flip).

Yes our offense has failed frequently this year, but over the long haul of the season it has been the blowpen that is cause for the struggles this year.  

I love it when we do these hypotheticals. We've blown more than our fair share of leads this year, but the Astros haven't been good in one run games either. If we're magically improving our record when we've had one run leads or been tied after 6 why not do the same thing for Houston? 

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2 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I love it when we do these hypotheticals. We've blown more than our fair share of leads this year, but the Astros haven't been good in one run games either. If we're magically improving our record when we've had one run leads or been tied after 6 why not do the same thing for Houston? 

Yea, these hypotheticals are just dumb. If we had a league average bullpen we would have given up about 15 less runs from the pen.  Does that give us 10 more wins to put us in a playoff spot, probably not.  We have one more blown save than the team that is 9 games ahead of us.  The idea that we simply need to fix the pen and everything would be ok only works if you fix it to perfection.  

What this team really needs is offense at 3rd, RF and 1st.  Health of Richards, Ohtani, Middleton and Tropeano.  It needs a bench that makes sense.  Who is our left handed bat off the bench?  No one.  Who is the guy who can come in and guarantee you to get a bunt down?  No one.  Who is the speedster that will pinch run late in the game and swipe a bag for you?  No one.  But all that needs fixing is the pen.  Oh and while you fix that pen do not make a bad decision on how to fix it because as recent free agency has shown you, that could be more devastating than Valbuena playing third every day and more expensive and for two years longer.  

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1 hour ago, Support The Local Team said:

The Angels won hundreds and hundreds of  1 and 2 run  games with a non potent offense, and good (not great) starting pitching. The relief core did their job, and protected leads. The bullpen has been the main problem of this team for years. I simply can't get over how a relief pitcher is unable to handle getting 3 stinking outs. I thought the advantage has always been to the pitcher? It seems to be the other way around with this organization when it comes to relief pitching. Their un-willingness to convert starters to relievers has also cost many pitchers their careers. Meyer, Shoemaker, JC come to mind. These dudes should have been groomed for/ and or stayed relievers. 

 

Your right.  Our most successful years had lock down pens and average starters.

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1 hour ago, eaterfan said:

I love it when we do these hypotheticals. We've blown more than our fair share of leads this year, but the Astros haven't been good in one run games either. If we're magically improving our record when we've had one run leads or been tied after 6 why not do the same thing for Houston? 

Because I am evaluating the Angel's and not the Astros.  Does that clarify things!

If we had a lock down pen and if the Astros was the same team we would be two games behind them.  

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1 minute ago, stormngt said:

Because I am evaluating the Angel's and not the Astros.  Does that clarify things!

If we had a lock down pen and if the Astros was the same team we would be two games behind them.  

Sorry but no we wouldn’t.  No pen is perfect.  

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1 hour ago, The Boogie Man said:

Yea, these hypotheticals are just dumb. If we had a league average bullpen we would have given up about 15 less runs from the pen.  Does that give us 10 more wins to put us in a playoff spot, probably not.  We have one more blown save than the team that is 9 games ahead of us.  The idea that we simply need to fix the pen and everything would be ok only works if you fix it to perfection.  

What this team really needs is offense at 3rd, RF and 1st.  Health of Richards, Ohtani, Middleton and Tropeano.  It needs a bench that makes sense.  Who is our left handed bat off the bench?  No one.  Who is the guy who can come in and guarantee you to get a bunt down?  No one.  Who is the speedster that will pinch run late in the game and swipe a bag for you?  No one.  But all that needs fixing is the pen.  Oh and while you fix that pen do not make a bad decision on how to fix it because as recent free agency has shown you, that could be more devastating than Valbuena playing third every day and more expensive and for two years longer.  

I explained it pretty clearly.  Fact we lost 8 games when having the lead in the last three innings of the game.  We should expect a win in those circumstances.  2 of those games we lost were to Astros.  That is a ten game flip.

You guys are over analyzing blown saves and other teams.  When we had Shields and KROD we didn't lose those games.  Dont say it's not our pen

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3 minutes ago, The Boogie Man said:

Sorry but no we wouldn’t.  No pen is perfect.  

I  believe there was a two or three year period where we did not lose when leading entering the 7th inning. We had shields and KRod. I could be wrong but I believe that was the case.

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12 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I  believe there was a two or three year period where we did not lose when leading entering the 7th inning. We had shields and KRod. I could be wrong but I believe that was the case.

I could be wrong about Shields and KRods streak.  I remember hearing that awhile ago.  However despite the fact that we should not have a sub 500 record if you winning within the last 9 outs 

And as for comparing to Houston, I am trying to isolate the Angel's problem not the Astros 

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7 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I  believe there was a two or three year period where we did not lose when leading entering the 7th inning. We had shields and KRod. I could be wrong but I believe that was the case.

That would be very difficult to believe.  Also if that did happen, I find it very hard to believe that has happened since.  That would mean the closer didn’t lose a single game where he blew the save.  

I just looked it up, from 2004-2009 probably our most successful 6 year stretch in team history we lost 46 games when leading in the 7th inning.  So that is on average almost 8 loses.  

I am not saying our pen is good, because it is bad.  But we are not close to first place with a good pen.  We are still a few games back of the 2nd Wild Card.  Hell one of the reasons we didn’t lose that many games back then is the offense was great and scored runs late.  

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1 minute ago, The Boogie Man said:

That would be very difficult to believe.  Also if that did happen, I find it very hard to believe that has happened since.  That would mean the closer didn’t lose a single game where he blew the save.  

I just looked it up, from 2004-2009 probably our most successful 6 year stretch in team history we lost 46 games when leading in the 7th inning.  So that is on average almost 8 loses.  

I am not saying our pen is good, because it is bad.  But we are not close to first place with a good pen.  We are still a few games back of the 2nd Wild Card.  Hell one of the reasons we didn’t lose that many games back then is the offense was great and scored runs late.  

I disagree.  We dropped out of the race because of our blown saves against crappy games.  And remember 4 games we blew were against Seattle and Houston which is a four game flip against both Houston and Mariners. 

BTW redo your search through 2008.  I dont it's fair to add Fuentes losses in there.

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6 hours ago, stormngt said:

Last night we battled  back and tied it only to see the blowpen give the lead the next half inning.  I started wondering just how often our blowpen led to losses.  So I started calculating our record when we have the lead by 1 run after six innings and our record when we are either tied or winning by 1 run after six.

Leading after 6 inning the Angel's are 6-8. Sorry but that is a sad stat.  Remember the days when the Angel's always won when they entered the 7th with the lead?  

If we entered the 7th inning  tied or winning by 1 our record is 8-14.  

Just to put in perspective:

Had we won all our games in which we led after 6 innings we would be 2 games behind the Astros and 1 game ahead of the Mariners.  (We lost 2 games to both the Astros and Mariners when we had the lead entering the 7th thus the two losses are a 4 game flip).

Yes our offense has failed frequently this year, but over the long haul of the season it has been the blowpen that is cause for the struggles this year.  

How many of those games did the bullpen pitch more than three innings of relief?

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