Does Eppler realize how stupid this is?

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

WTF happened to the Indians’ pen?

Miller suddenly sucks.   McAlister suddenly sucks.   Allen has been meh. 

Baseball has happened.  AO, you understand volatility of bullpens, that is exactly what has happened.  

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, EDinTUSTIN said:

Note Ramirez needs to go, I see nothing that indicates quality there. He should be hired by MLB to be the permanent Home Run Derby pitcher.  He does that already for Angel opponents.

yet, until the last week or two he was one of our better options.  He still might be our best two inning option.  

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, EDinTUSTIN said:

Note Ramirez needs to go, I see nothing that indicates quality there. He should be hired by MLB to be the permanent Home Run Derby pitcher.  He does that already for Angel opponents.

he only gave up 1 in the first 2 months of the season

[Rollinghard]

1 minute ago, EDinTUSTIN said:

Note Ramirez needs to go, I see nothing that indicates quality there. He should be hired by MLB to be the permanent Home Run Derby pitcher.  He does that already for Angel opponents.

I always thought when Noe Ramirez had a good outing, it was smoke and mirrors and lucky. His most effective pitch is his  backup slider. That can't be a good thing.

[Angel Oracle]

13 minutes ago, The Boogie Man said:

Baseball has happened.  AO, you understand volatility of bullpens, that is exactly what has happened.  

This is more volatility than even I remember.   Granted Miller isn’t getting any younger.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

This is more volatility than even I remember.   Granted Miller isn’t getting any younger.

Indians, Colorado, us.  We had a pretty good pen last year, and this year it is less than good.  I have zero doubt that Eppler used his same analytical methodology to grade his pitchers.  He is a process guy.  

[Jay]

15 hours ago, fan_since79 said:

It's not just the pen. The starting rotation is also a mess. Skaggs is the only starter still there from Opening Day.

I mean, who the hell are John Lamb and Felix Pena?!

This is pretty much exactly what we expected coming into the season, is it not?

 

[Erstad Grit]

My take - I saw this coming, but epplers pen surprised me last year. I decided to trust he has an ability to spot free pen guys that are undervalued.  I'm now wondering if he got lucky last year. 

[T.G.]

or unlucky this year.

[Stradling]

Would you rather be us, where we did nothing to address the problem and it shows.  Or would you rather be Colorado who spent a ton of money to solve a problem, only to have it be bad still?  I don’t care about Arte’s money, obviously, but at least we have those resources still available.  

[Dick B Back]

53 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

WTF happened to the Indians’ pen?

Miller suddenly sucks.   McAlister suddenly sucks.   Allen has been meh. 

I think Miller has been having some medical issues indicative of a pitcher breaking down from overuse.

[floplag]

19 minutes ago, The Boogie Man said:

Would you rather be us, where we did nothing to address the problem and it shows.  Or would you rather be Colorado who spent a ton of money to solve a problem, only to have it be bad still?  I don’t care about Arte’s money, obviously, but at least we have those resources still available.  

Hindsight is always 20/20.  Its easy to knock it now, but at the time they were lauded for making the effort. 

I think to answer your question i would have rather made the effort.  you cant always control the results, can control the level of effort.  Id rather take my chances with guys that have proven track records of success than those who have a  history of DFA. 

The 3 teams mentioned are to me very different case studies.  Off the three i think our issues were predictable, the other 2 are unexpected.  Plus, Col effect. 

Relievers are volatile, they are generally failed starters that either couldn't extend or didn't have the stuff to go thru the other multiple times.  There are of course exceptions to that rule that are just pure born closers, but we really dont have any of those.

[Ohtaniland]

This season’s bullpen 

 

[Stradling]

Yea, guessing which ones are going to perform from free agency is the hardest part of being a GM.  If they don’t work out then you have money spent on an asset you could almost replace for free. Then you bring that guy back, because most of these relievers don’t sign for just one year, and you see if they can find what made them effective in the past.  Plus if you have a budget, you aren’t really able to simply sign this guys replacement because well the money is spent.  I sure hope we can start to develop pitchers sooner rather than later.  If you can get the base of a good bullpen and then upgrade it mid season with guys who are actually performing that might be the best way to go.  

[WeaverFever]

31 minutes ago, floplag said:

Hindsight is always 20/20.  Its easy to knock it now, but at the time they were lauded for making the effort. 

I think to answer your question i would have rather made the effort.  you cant always control the results, can control the level of effort.  Id rather take my chances with guys that have proven track records of success than those who have a  history of DFA. 

The 3 teams mentioned are to me very different case studies.  Off the three i think our issues were predictable, the other 2 are unexpected.  Plus, Col effect. 

Relievers are volatile, they are generally failed starters that either couldn't extend or didn't have the stuff to go thru the other multiple times.  There are of course exceptions to that rule that are just pure born closers, but we really dont have any of those.

You are the minority. I remember reading the forum in November and 90% of people on here trusted Billy’s ability to get under the rated targets.

[floplag]

5 minutes ago, WeaverFever said:

You are the minority. I remember reading the forum in November and 90% of people on here trusted Billy’s ability to get under the rated targets.

Inn Nov, maybe.  I for one always had pen at the top of my off season wishlist and i know many here had the same feelings though they may not have published or stated them till a little later in the host stove process. 

[Stradling]

I thought he would sign an arm or two.  I didn’t think he would sign a closer but a couple of other guys, sure.  

[m0nkey]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

WTF happened to the Indians’ pen?

Miller suddenly sucks.   McAlister suddenly sucks.   Allen has been meh. 

Miller had a 10 game scoreless streak to begin the year, then had knee/back injuries.  Came back, sucked, then got put on the shelf again.  I think that explains him

[Angel Oracle]

It explains the Indians not being much over .500 in a total crap division.   

[Docwaukee]

It makes sense why some of these guys turn into pumpkins.  

Bryan Shaw was a decent/solid reliever but nothing ever close to dominant.  Then you take him and drop him into Colorado?  

Maybe we can get Colorado to fire sale Wade Davis to us and eat a chunk of his money.  I think he'd be really good for us.  

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

It makes sense why some of these guys turn into pumpkins.  

Bryan Shaw was a decent/solid reliever but nothing ever close to dominant.  Then you take him and drop him into Colorado?  

Maybe we can get Colorado to fire sale Wade Davis to us and eat a chunk of his money.  I think he'd be really good for us.  

Hey Doc is it still a rule that if a player is traded in the first year of his free agent contract he can opt out of that contract at the end of the season?  

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, The Boogie Man said:

Hey Doc is it still a rule that if a player is traded in the first year of his free agent contract he can opt out of that contract at the end of the season?  

not sure.  don't think so though.  

[mulwin444]

22 minutes ago, The Boogie Man said:

Yea, guessing which ones are going to perform from free agency is the hardest part of being a GM.  If they don’t work out then you have money spent on an asset you could almost replace for free. Then you bring that guy back, because most of these relievers don’t sign for just one year, and you see if they can find what made them effective in the past.  Plus if you have a budget, you aren’t really able to simply sign this guys replacement because well the money is spent.  I sure hope we can start to develop pitchers sooner rather than later.  If you can get the base of a good bullpen and then upgrade it mid season with guys who are actually performing that might be the best way to go.  

Matt Albers: Cost $5,000,000

2017:  7-2 1.62 ERA 0.852 WHIP  272 ERA+ 0.9 HR/9 2.5 BB/9 9.3 K/9

2018:  3-2 3.45 ERA 1.151 WHIP 121 ERA+ 1.6 HR/9 2.2 BB/9 7.8 K/9

Wade Davis: Cost $52,000,000

2017: 4-2 2.30 ERA 1.142 WHIP 192 ERA+ 0.9 HR/9 4.3 BB/9 12.1 K/9

2018: 0-2 4.40 ERA 1.272 WHIP 108 ERA+ 0.9 HR/9 5.3 BB/9 9.7 K/9

Brian Duensing: Cost $7,000,000

2017: 1-1 2.74 ERA 1.219 WHIP 161 ERA+ 0.9 HR/9 2.6 BB/9 8.8 K/9

2018 2-0 6.17 ERA 1.671 WHIP 68 ERA+ 1.2 HR/9 5.8 BB/9 6.2 K/9

Luke Gregerson: Cost $11,000,000

2017: 2-3 4.57 ERA 1.344 WHIP 87 ERA+ 1.9 HR/9 3.0 BB/9 10.3 K/9

2018: 0-0 8.64 ERA 1.320 WHIP 47 ERA+ 2.2 HR/9 3.2 BB/9 8.6 K/9

Greg Holland: Cost $14,000,000

2017: 3-6 3.61 ERA 1.151 WHIP 141 ERA+ 1.1 HR/9 4.1 BB/9 11.0 K/9
2018: 0-2 7.71 ERA 2.204 WHIP 52 ERA+ 0.6 HR/9 8.3 BB/9 8.3 K/9

Tommy Hunter: Cost $18,000,000

2017: 3-5 2.61 ERA 0.972 WHIP 160 ERA+ 0.9 HR/9 2.1 BB/9 9.8 K/9

2018: 2-0 4.37 ERA 1.412 WHIP 94 ERA+ 0.4 HR/9 1.2 BB/9 8.3 K/9

 

Just a bit of a sampling of last winter's relief pitching Free Agent signing but you get the idea...

 

[Angel Oracle]

34 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

It makes sense why some of these guys turn into pumpkins.  

Bryan Shaw was a decent/solid reliever but nothing ever close to dominant.  Then you take him and drop him into Colorado?  

Maybe we can get Colorado to fire sale Wade Davis to us and eat a chunk of his money.  I think he'd be really good for us.  

I like this idea.   Maybe take on all of the remaining 2018 salary and 2/3 of the 2019-2020 salary?

Maybe that lessens the return package to Colorado?

The one caveat is the BBs climbing since 2016.    Amazingly, the HRs allowed are the same, despite the Coors Canaveral effect.

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Matt Albers: Cost $5,000,000

2017:  7-2 1.62 ERA 0.852 WHIP  272 ERA+ 0.9 HR/9 2.5 BB/9 9.3 K/9

2018:  3-2 3.45 ERA 1.151 WHIP 121 ERA+ 1.6 HR/9 2.2 BB/9 7.8 K/9

Wade Davis: Cost $52,000,000

2017: 4-2 2.30 ERA 1.142 WHIP 192 ERA+ 0.9 HR/9 4.3 BB/9 12.1 K/9

2018: 0-2 4.40 ERA 1.272 WHIP 108 ERA+ 0.9 HR/9 5.3 BB/9 9.7 K/9

Brian Duensing: Cost $7,000,000

2017: 1-1 2.74 ERA 1.219 WHIP 161 ERA+ 0.9 HR/9 2.6 BB/9 8.8 K/9

2018 2-0 6.17 ERA 1.671 WHIP 68 ERA+ 1.2 HR/9 5.8 BB/9 6.2 K/9

Luke Gregerson: Cost $11,000,000

2017: 2-3 4.57 ERA 1.344 WHIP 87 ERA+ 1.9 HR/9 3.0 BB/9 10.3 K/9

2018: 0-0 8.64 ERA 1.320 WHIP 47 ERA+ 2.2 HR/9 3.2 BB/9 8.6 K/9

Greg Holland: Cost $14,000,000

2017: 3-6 3.61 ERA 1.151 WHIP 141 ERA+ 1.1 HR/9 4.1 BB/9 11.0 K/9
2018: 0-2 7.71 ERA 2.204 WHIP 52 ERA+ 0.6 HR/9 8.3 BB/9 8.3 K/9

Tommy Hunter: Cost $18,000,000

2017: 3-5 2.61 ERA 0.972 WHIP 160 ERA+ 0.9 HR/9 2.1 BB/9 9.8 K/9

2018: 2-0 4.37 ERA 1.412 WHIP 94 ERA+ 0.4 HR/9 1.2 BB/9 8.3 K/9

 

Just a bit of a sampling of last winter's relief pitching Free Agent signing but you get the idea...

 

Addison Reed hasn't been great either with a 3.47 era and an FIP of 4.87.  He was a guy I was interested in.  

Tony Watson has been terrific for SF.  2/9.  He was another guy on the board late that I was a fan of (I also remember AO making a strong pitch for him)

Anthony Swarzak has be terrible.  2/14mil 

Joe Smith has been awful and he got 2/15

Juan Nicasio awful 2/17

Steve Cishek has been terrific.  2/13

Brandon Kintzler meh to poor.  2/10

Petit - decentish.  2/10

Hector Rondon has been terrific.  2/8.5

David Hernandez has been excellent.  2/5

Jared Hughes has been really good.  2/4.5

As much as it kills me to say this, Rodney has been a good bargain closer.  1/5

Craig Stammen - very good.  2/4.5

Bud Norris - solid/good 1/3

Seunghwan Oh - solid/good 1/2.75

Then a bunch of guys in the 1/1 to 1/2 range

Not good - Boone Logan, Jordan Lyles

Decent - Zach Duke, Tony Barnette, Jesse Chavez

 

So there was a bit of treasure among the landmines here.  

mostly in the deals costing about 2-4mil per season.  which, to be honest, was where I thought we'd shop.