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Griffin Canning


Torridd

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Typically what the minor league thread is for, but I'll give it a shot. 

- Fastball is 94-96 with movement in on a RHB. 

- Curveball is an out pitch.  Either "plus" or "plus-plus".

- Slider is an above average pitch.  Good velo on it and he commands it decently.  

- Change up is a "plus" pitch.  He used it as an out pitch in college but in the professional ranks it's become a very effective 1-strike offering. 

The majority of his starts follow the same script.  He usually only goes 4-5 innings to keep his pitch count down.  But in those 4-5 innings, he's pretty much unhittable as evidenced by his 5.1 H/9 and 10.3 K/9.  His stuff is too dominant and his demeanor on the mound gives you the impression that he knows he's going to win and there's nothing you can do about it.  He walks more batters than you'd like (3.9 BB/9), which isn't quite at Sean Newcomb levels, but it can still improve.

He profiles a good #2/3 starter in the majors.  I think his best comp is probably a fellow UCLA alum in Trevor Bauer.  Bauer's first taste of major league baseball exposed his shortcomings, which was a lack of command and definitely some arrogance.  But every year he's gotten better and better to where now in his mid-to-late 20's, he's an ace.  So don't be surprised if when Canning first comes up, he's more of a dynamic back-end starter for the first couple years, then he'll progress into a solid mid-rotation starter for a couple years, and then after that, we'll see him pitch closer toward the front of the rotation.  

This is all assuming he's healthy.  His MRI leaving UCLA revealed no structural damage, but definitely some wear and tear.  The Angels shut him down in June of 2017 and didn't let him pick up a ball again until January 2018.  During that time they put him on a core strengthening and mobility program.  When he arrived at Spring Training this year, his fastball climbed from 92-94 up to it's present levels of 94-96, and all of his off-speed pitches improved.  So in order to protect that arm of his, I don't expect the Angels to allow him to exceed 120-150 innings at pretty much any time in his career. 

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26 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

So in order to protect that arm of his, I don't expect the Angels to allow him to exceed 120-150 innings at pretty much any time in his career. 

Nice write-up Scotty, but this part surprised me. You think Canning will ALWAYS be a part-time starter? If so, that is hugely disappointing and seems a bit extreme. 

I was under the impression that the limited innings were only for this year.

I also see slightly higher upside: good #2, borderline ace. Your #2/3 is what it was before this season and I’ve seen enough to bump him up a bit. 

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1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Nice write-up Scotty, but this part surprised me. You think Canning will ALWAYS be a part-time starter? If so, that is hugely disappointing and seems a bit extreme. 

I was under the impression that the limited innings were only for this year.

I also see slightly higher upside: good #2, borderline ace. Your #2/3 is what it was before this season and I’ve seen enough to bump him up a bit. 

He definitely has ace type of stuff and has climbed the ladder fast. So if you think he's more than a #2/3 then I wouldn't argue.

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