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Trade top talent to win now? Or maybe trade top talent for prospects?


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Edit: thread title updated based on recent news

 

There are often disagreements around these parts about acquiring some missing pieces but having to trade away some of our top farm prospects. 

My question for you all is, at what point would it be worth it? Some say they'd never trade X or Y, no matter what! Does this mean some of you would still be unhappy if we traded Adell and Marsh for a major leaguer who helped lead us to a World Series win in 2018? Or at what point would it be worth it to you all? WS win or bust? WS appearance?

I think we often lose sight of what we are actually trying to accomplish if we want to hold on to prospects no matter what. Yes, we shouldn't let them go easily but if it is a year we could have a chance, who knows.

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I guess I fall somewhere between Stoneman, who refused to trade top prospects, and DiPoto, who seems always willing to make a move for the present.....Eppler, so far, has struck a pretty good middle ground for me.....but he may have his toughest call in the next 6 weeks...he has a team that can make the playoffs but needs some help and he has some solid talent in the minors (much moreso than the last few years) to make a significant move if he wants to....not easy decisions....

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I think the question is if the team is one or two pieces from being a serious WS contender. If so, make some trades. If not, ride It out.

I don't think we're serious contenders but I understand and support if Eppler wants to go for it. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.

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I think there is a time where teams should give up top prospects. This year I don't believe is the year for us. Too many weaknesses and holes. You fix the bullpen and you still have underperforming aging hitters. Who's to say they even come around? You want to replace those aging hitters? Ok, that's more prospects gone.

to do what? Get to the wild card game? It sucks but I don't think this team is good enough regardless this year. I do have confidence that the time will come in a year or two though. And in that year or two, I would like to have those prospects to improve our team when we have a better chance of winning.

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32 minutes ago, zenmaster said:

There are often disagreements around these parts about acquiring some missing pieces but having to trade away some of our top farm prospects. 

My question for you all is, at what point would it be worth it? Some say they'd never trade X or Y, no matter what! Does this mean some of you would still be unhappy if we traded Adell and Marsh for a major leaguer who helped lead us to a World Series win in 2018? Or at what point would it be worth it to you all? WS win or bust? WS appearance?

I think we often lose sight of what we are actually trying to accomplish if we want to hold on to prospects no matter what. Yes, we shouldn't let them go easily but if it is a year we could have a chance, who knows.

I'd trade the entire farm for a piece that would bring a WS this year or any year. That piece doesn't exist.

This team is 4.5 back of Seattle and 3.5 back of Houston. I think we're better than Seattle, but Houston is still a beast and they have a 3.5 game lead on us. Realistically anything we're selling is for a one game playoff at Bos/NYY facing Sale/Severino. I wouldn't give up much for that.

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I do not agree with most posters here who think we should hoard and hang on to All our prospects. We do have a a good deal of talented prospects. But that is exactly what they are; prospects. A majority of prospects never pann out. We have the best player in baseball right now, along with an amazing star shortstop and a future star in Ohtani. We have low cost starters who are finally producing. If we do not put a winning product on the field now we may lose the one of the greatest players of all time because we would rather hold on to our prospects rather than make the risky move to aquire talent. We have the prospects to put a contender on the field now. And we probably do not have to deplete our system to get there. It makes no sense In hoarding and holding on to these prospects. Yeah some may be our future. But that is a crap shoot at best. It’s not like we are the Astros who had numerous top 5 picks to get where they were. We are talking about prospects that have a lot lower ceiling (except may be our few top 3-4 prospects at most) A lot of these prospects have more value in what they can bring in as apposed to being role players In The future. A lot will never even pan out, much less even make it to the big leagues. So why hang on to all of them with the risk that we never put a competitive team on the field. Let’s do it now while we have one of the best players of all time. 

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19 minutes ago, REDneck said:

While I appreciate the importance of prospects and their significance to the success of a franchise their are some around here that talk about them like a first born child....and wont part with them for anything.

Def by 2019 we should be legit contenders with this core of talent,if it takes some prospect currency to surround them with productive MLb players ..then so be it

 

 

 

 

 

I think the talent on the farm will be ready to help in 2 years and that will have far more impact on retaining Trout than if we make an ALDS this year. The core is young and can compete for a championship in the next few years. I'm not sure this year is it. Nothing is for sure, maybe this team will be bad the next two years and this will be our only shot. But I think that chance is smaller than then prospects helping us in the future. And also smaller than the trade chips leading us to a WS Championship this year.

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Key things to keep in mind:

1) Billy Eppler does not overpay. In fact, he probably underpays 75% of the time when acquiring players, either by getting them for nothing or minimal cash (waiver claims, cash consideration trades) and 25% of the time pays generally a very fair price (i.e., Long + Rodriguez for Upton, Newcomb for Simmons, Cozart for 3/$39m, etc., etc.)

2) That does not mean Billy isn't in 'win-now' mode - in fact, almost all of his moves come at the expense of opening a door for a young player to get playing time (i.e, Rivera displacing Perez & Graterol, Valbuena displacing Marte/Cron (at first), Espinosa/Franklin instead of Cowart, and Chris Young 'blocking' Hermosillo) and put a priority on veteran stopgap bounce-backs over untested minor leaguers. 

3) We have some money to play with now and in the future in terms of payroll space, and it was probably left that way for this reason. 

4) Billy Eppler does not spend anything on relievers.

I think, knowing that, your next move is assessing the batch of prospects, determining who is redundant (potentially Suarez), 'blocked' (potentially one of Ward or Thaiss), or fairly easy to replicate on the FA/waiver market, i.e., if they really feel Hermosillo is a 4th OF, there is no shortage of 4th OFs available in minor trade or waiver claim.

If we are trading someone like Adell, Marsh, Barria, or Canning...
...it's probably going to be for an impact player(s) with long-term control (at least more than '18) in the rotation , corner outfield, or infield. I'm talking guys like Madison Bumgarner, Matt Chapman, Michael Wacha, Jameson Taillon, Kevin Kiermaier, etc. Not very likely, probably 25% or less we see this. Entirely dependent on who winds up available and how much Eppler likes them, such as Simmons.

If we are trading someone like Hermosillo, Ward, Thaiss, Suarez...
...it's probably because Eppler feels like they're at max value right now and they do not have a ceiling or level of production that can be replaced elsewhere at cheap/fair price, such as trading Ward because you're going to sign one of Donaldson, LeMahieu, Dozier, Marwin, Lowrie next year, and you don't think Ward has much more ceiling over them. Pretty likely. 50% we see someone from this tier moved for a quality player - perhaps a rental, such as the Upton deal.

He'll have no problem dealing away lower-level players or multiple-filler players. But, it's unlikely it lands us anyone that's anymore of a sure thing, such as when we landed Maybin for Alcantara, Espinosa for two minor leaguers, Escobar for Gott...basically, he's rolling the dice on a vet who gets hot for a couple months or a year-plus, and if they don't, he's not afraid at losing young players such as Gott, Eaves, Elvin Rodriguez, Jordan Kipper. This is one of Eppler's calling cards. 75%+ we see a deal or two like this.

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1 hour ago, zenmaster said:

There are often disagreements around these parts about acquiring some missing pieces but having to trade away some of our top farm prospects. 

My question for you all is, at what point would it be worth it? Some say they'd never trade X or Y, no matter what! Does this mean some of you would still be unhappy if we traded Adell and Marsh for a major leaguer who helped lead us to a World Series win in 2018? Or at what point would it be worth it to you all? WS win or bust? WS appearance?

I think we often lose sight of what we are actually trying to accomplish if we want to hold on to prospects no matter what. Yes, we shouldn't let them go easily but if it is a year we could have a chance, who knows.

My thoughts are if we need anything then we have to give up something of equal worth to get it. Generally, I think prospects are there to be traded. If the major league team needs shoring up, then we can trade the minor leaguers as long as justification  is warranted.

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1 hour ago, zenmaster said:

There are often disagreements around these parts about acquiring some missing pieces but having to trade away some of our top farm prospects. 

My question for you all is, at what point would it be worth it? Some say they'd never trade X or Y, no matter what! Does this mean some of you would still be unhappy if we traded Adell and Marsh for a major leaguer who helped lead us to a World Series win in 2018? Or at what point would it be worth it to you all? WS win or bust? WS appearance?

I think we often lose sight of what we are actually trying to accomplish if we want to hold on to prospects no matter what. Yes, we shouldn't let them go easily but if it is a year we could have a chance, who knows.

It's not a one or the other proposition. The focus shouldn't be on trade now or hold onto them, it should be about what makes the team the best overall. That means we need to focus on what the return would be in a trade more than what the team is doing at the time. If the return makes sense, and improves the club overall, then we should pursue it. 

Eppler listens to all offers, and is constantly checking to see what's available out there. And, with the Simmons trade, he's shown he's not afraid to make a move that will help the club long-term, even if it means trading the top talent in the system (and within a weak system at the time). There's no doubt how well the Simmons trade turned out, and how much better he's made the club overall. It was a gamble that paid off extremely well. Both teams benefited, as Newcomb as become the pitcher we thought he'd be, but Simmons has definitely exceeded the player we thought he'd be. 

Focusing on the return and what makes sense long-term is the way to go, not focusing on one extreme or another.

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Guess a simpler way of the point I was trying to make is Eppler isn't like Dipoto, who'd go in asking for a million dollars, get a counter of $50k, and then settle for $60k just to say he did a deal and came out ahead of the counter.

If he trades top talent, it's going to be for a damn good reason, so if Adell gets traded this summer, it's gonna be for someone pretty effin' cool.

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6 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

It's not a one or the other proposition. The focus shouldn't be on trade now or hold onto them, it should be about what makes the team the best overall. That means we need to focus on what the return would be in a trade more than what the team is doing at the time. If the return makes sense, and improves the club overall, then we should pursue it. 

Eppler listens to all offers, and is constantly checking to see what's available out there. And, with the Simmons trade, he's shown he's not afraid to make a move that will help the club long-term, even if it means trading the top talent in the system (and within a weak system at the time). There's no doubt how well the Simmons trade turned out, and how much better he's made the club overall. It was a gamble that paid off extremely well. Both teams benefited, as Newcomb as become the pitcher we thought he'd be, but Simmons has definitely exceeded the player we thought he'd be. 

Focusing on the return and what makes sense long-term is the way to go, not focusing on one extreme or another.

This makes sense, Dave. However, what do you think Eppler does when the team is screaming for  Herrera? How is that handled?

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18 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I think the talent on the farm will be ready to help in 2 years and that will have far more impact on retaining Trout than if we make an ALDS this year. The core is young and can compete for a championship in the next few years. I'm not sure this year is it. Nothing is for sure, maybe this team will be bad the next two years and this will be our only shot. But I think that chance is smaller than then prospects helping us in the future. And also smaller than the trade chips leading us to a WS Championship this year.

I respectfully disagree. I think that may be the case if all of our prospects pan out as best base scenario. We as Angel fans vastly overrate our own prospects and players. Adell and Canning May be have star potential. With Marsh, and Jones possibly being solid regulars to may be all-stars. Barria and Suarez are likely mid rotation pitchers at best. I hope I am wrong and they become top of the rotation pitchers. With all other prospects falling somewhere lower than that, and maybbe MLB regulars to role players at best. There may likely be some surprises as some may out preform their possible ceiling. But more likely is some prospects never reach these potentials. We would need most of all our prospects to reach their full potential and ceiling to compete by hanging on all prospects and continue signing aging veterans. And as for All the prospects reaching their full potential and ceiling; THAT NEVER HAPPENS. Hit rates on prospects are very low. And only players like Ward, Thasis, and may be canning are 2 years away. Everyone else is likely a lot farther than that. And 2 Years from now Trouts Contract is up. Only Pujols and Upton will be under contract. So I think we should go for it now. I am not a fan of kicking the Can down the road in hopes we get lucky later. 

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At the very least, they should soon acquire someone like Soria.   He struggled the first half of May, after acing April (aside from one bad outing).

Since May 21 though: 8.1 innings, 3 hits, 10/1 K's/BB's, 0 earned runs, under 0.50 WHIP

The Halos DESPERATELY need someone in the pen with solid command like his, STAT.  

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1 hour ago, zenmaster said:

There are often disagreements around these parts about acquiring some missing pieces but having to trade away some of our top farm prospects. 

My question for you all is, at what point would it be worth it? Some say they'd never trade X or Y, no matter what! Does this mean some of you would still be unhappy if we traded Adell and Marsh for a major leaguer who helped lead us to a World Series win in 2018? Or at what point would it be worth it to you all? WS win or bust? WS appearance?

I think we often lose sight of what we are actually trying to accomplish if we want to hold on to prospects no matter what. Yes, we shouldn't let them go easily but if it is a year we could have a chance, who knows.

Everyone is on the market if it gets us a championship and that includes Trout.  However the championship is not guaranteed when you make the trade.  Therefore it's hard to assess if we should trade out top prospect.  It's all should be balanced between what value value of your giving up and what value you get.

I dont want to trade a top prospect for a relief pitcher! I would consider secondary prospects, but not our top prospects 

Now I would for a Machado, arrenado, or Harper if the prospects of extension is good.

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2 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Everyone is on the market if it gets us a championship and that includes Trout.  However the championship is not guaranteed when you make the trade.  Therefore it's hard to assess if we should trade out top prospect.  It's all should be balanced between what value value of your giving up and what value you get.

I dont want to trade a top prospect for a relief pitcher! I would consider secondary prospects, but not our top prospects 

Now I would for a Machado, arrenado, or Harper if the prospects of extension is good.

I think this is a fair look at things, as I mostly agree with this. But I think we do need to try and make a move to win now. 

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And with simmons out a possible extended period time and Ohtani may be going to the DL. I would call The Royals and See if Eppler can work his magic and get us Moustakas, Herrera, and Gordon. But thats easy to say as I type this on my phone. I am sure Eppler has been Calling and fielding calls pretty regularly and we do not know what it takes behind the scenes. But as an arm chair gm and fan, that sounds like a good plan on its face. 

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9 minutes ago, stanick88 said:

I respectfully disagree. I think that may be the case if all of our prospects pan out as best base scenario. We as Angel fans vastly overrate our own prospects and players. Adell and Canning May be have star potential. With Marsh, and Jones possibly being solid regulars to may be all-stars. Barria and Suarez are likely mid rotation pitchers at best. I hope I am wrong and they become top of the rotation pitchers. With all other prospects falling somewhere lower than that, and maybbe MLB regulars to role players at best. There may likely be some surprises as some may out preform their possible ceiling. But more likely is some prospects never reach these potentials. We would need most of all our prospects to reach their full potential and ceiling to compete by hanging on all prospects and continue signing aging veterans. And as for All the prospects reaching their full potential and ceiling; THAT NEVER HAPPENS. Hit rates on prospects are very low. And only players like Ward, Thasis, and may be canning are 2 years away. Everyone else is likely a lot farther than that. And 2 Years from now Trouts Contract is up. Only Pujols and Upton will be under contract. So I think we should go for it now. I am not a fan of kicking the Can down the road in hopes we get lucky later. 

MLB players aren't sure things either. Hamilton and Pujols flopped with us, too. And the Angels don't need all their prospects to pan out. Adell, Marsh, Deveaux all have all-star+ potential. Jones has solid starter potential, Canning and Suarez have solid starter potential. They aren't going to need to build an entire team. They still have Skaggs, Trop, Heaney, Barria, Ohtani, Upton, Simmons and Trout locked down for years. The window isn't closing this season. They just need a few guys to fill in around the periphery. 

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1 minute ago, stanick88 said:

And with simmons out a possible extended period time and Ohtani may be going to the DL. I would call The Royals and See if Eppler can work his magic and get us Moustakas, Herrera, and Gordon. But thats easy to say as I type this on my phone. I am sure Eppler has been Calling and fielding calls pretty regularly and we do not know what it takes behind the scenes. But as an arm chair gm and fan, that sounds like a good plan on its face. 

Simmons will be back within a week most likely and I've not heard of any DL talk for Ohtani, maybe a missed start but I think he can hit?

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11 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

At the very least, they should soon acquire someone like Soria.   He struggled the first half of May, after acing April (aside from one bad outing).

Since May 21 though: 8.1 innings, 3 hits, 10/1 K's/BB's, 0 earned runs, under 0.50 WHIP

The Halos DESPERATELY need someone in the pen with solid command like his, STAT.  

I like Soria and think he'd come cheap. His salary is pretty hefty.

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6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I like Soria and think he'd come cheap. His salary is pretty hefty.

As of now, Soria is due about $5.5 million for 2018.   His 2019 team option is $10 million with a $1 million buyout.

Shouldn't take anymore than say one prospect ranked around 20-30 in the Halos org? 

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3 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

MLB players aren't sure things either. Hamilton and Pujols flopped with us, too. And the Angels don't need all their prospects to pan out. Adell, Marsh, Deveaux all have all-star+ potential. Jones has solid starter potential, Canning and Suarez have solid starter potential. They aren't going to need to build an entire team. They still have Skaggs, Trop, Heaney, Barria, Ohtani, Upton, Simmons and Trout locked down for years. The window isn't closing this season. They just need a few guys to fill in around the periphery. 

You are right about MLB regulars not being sure things either. But they are more sure things than unproven prospects. With An MLB regular you more or less know how they preform in the big leagues. And by the time almost all of our prospects are ready, almost all of: Skaggs, Trop, Heaney, Barria, Ohtani, Upton, Simmons and Trout will either be close to or over thirty and/or not under contract or team control (with exception of Barria and Ohtani and Maybe Upton who will be vastly over thirty). So our window may or may not be closing. But we do not know for sure. Best bet is to go for it while we have the best player now and good stars around him. We just need another impact player or two. We can still get impact players and still keep a solid system. We do not have to deplete our system. We have so many high upside prospects why not use a few of them now to aquire talent while we have sure thing stars at this moment. 

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