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payrolls, luxury taxes etc...


floplag

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I'm actually just looking for someone to confirm my research, is the following accurate?  im looking at what we can do or afford as part of some discussions and id like a second opinion/conformation if there is anything im missing.

Our current payroll is estimated at about 178-179M in total per Sportrac.  I haven't found anything that suggests otherwise so im assuming this to be correct. 

The Luxury tax is set to kick in at 197M in 2018.  This will increase annually about 3 mil per year under the current system to 210M in 2021. 

This means that we currently have roughly 18M available in "cap" space.

On the books for next year so far is only about 124M pre arb figures with the biggest drop off being Kinslers 11M and another 8.5 under the 124M assuming we decline Valbuena's option.   

Right or wrong? 

 

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Cot's baseball contracts is usually pretty accurate.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JJEzXDdi1FoAVCxpssrNq04unxs39JIJg6CRn-IPM1c/pubhtml#

Some of the players listed at league minimum are no longer with the organization or are on the DL, so other players will either assume the same contract in their stead or be added at a prorated portion of the league minimum. So maybe 2-3 extra million for cap purposes.

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I'd add Moutakas, Kennedy, and Herrera if the Royals would deal them and take back most of Kinsler's or Calhoun's Salary this year in addition to prospects.

I'd try to hang on to Fletcher, Thaiss, Hermosillio, Adell, Jones and Canning.

I'd trade most any other prospect.

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54 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

One "positive" i noticed the other day is that trout is making a ton right now. I think highest in baseball. So i dont think his next contract would be anything bank breaking vs what were already paying him.

Only big difference now would be the AAV on that new deal, currently $24 million and likely increasing to say $40+ million.

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22 hours ago, Hubs said:

Cot's baseball contracts is usually pretty accurate.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JJEzXDdi1FoAVCxpssrNq04unxs39JIJg6CRn-IPM1c/pubhtml#

Some of the players listed at league minimum are no longer with the organization or are on the DL, so other players will either assume the same contract in their stead or be added at a prorated portion of the league minimum. So maybe 2-3 extra million for cap purposes.

This is the best tool when it comes to looking at luxury tax and AAV.

We do have some considerable room for contracts, but keep in mind a few players are due significant raises in arbitration.  We also need to sign a catcher, and there's the question of whether we want to re-sign Richards or not.

We certainly have room, and I would say we could very well add one superstar contract to the payroll and still fall below the luxury tax level.  Future years get more dicey, but as long as we start infusing young talent on this team, then we can support carrying a few high priced players.  It just depends on the route we want to go.

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On 6/1/2018 at 11:54 AM, floplag said:

I'm actually just looking for someone to confirm my research, is the following accurate?  im looking at what we can do or afford as part of some discussions and id like a second opinion/conformation if there is anything im missing.
 

sounds like a job for . . . @Math Cop!!!

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So bumping this thread, but doing some basic math, we probably sit around 135-140mil entering the offseason.  I am projecting in arbitration raises for most eligible players, but I am also assuming we do NOT offer arbitration to Shoemaker (would add 6+mil) and JC Ramirez (would add 2.5+mil).  I am also assuming we decline Valbuena's option.

The luxury tax limit is 206mil next year, so "in theory," we have roughly 65-70mil to spend to fill our gaps.  This includes the need to sign a catcher (re-sign Maldonado or sign Grandal as his replacement) and the possibility of re-signing Richards.

We do have a good amount of money to play with, especially if we decide to move on from Richards.  Assuming we spend 7-10mil to sign a catcher, we still have a lot of money to utilize.  I am assuming we'll spend for at least one reliever.  You can see though, with this kind of money available, there is very much the possibility we can indeed pursue one star player (Harper, Machado) and reasonably fit him under the cap.

For example, we could re-sign Maldonado and sign Herrera + Harper for probably a combined 50-55mil AAV.  With the projected arbitration raises already built in, this leaves us comfortably under the cap.  We commit to a few veterans, but we also entrust our farm to fill in a lot of gaps (either Fletcher or Ward takes over 2B/3B with Cozart shifting to the empty spot, JMF assumes Valbuena's spot, Canning/Suarez get promoted to the rotation, etc).  This way, we infuse both young talent and some veterans, and hopefully, this leads to an overall winner.

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^ i like it.

Kind of a tricky situation. We have to spend to improve now to make trout want to stay. But we cant overspend in terms of possibly losing out on trout later.

Harper makes a ton of sense. Lefty, plays a spot we need production from badly. But likely way too expensive.

Machado makes a lot of sense. But as mentioned, he wants to play SS. Im betting that depends on the market, though.

Moustakas might be the best fit..."cheaper", would be a shorter term contract, harpers lefty bat at machados position.

Trout+Harper would be insane. Trout+Machado would be fantastic. Trout+Moustakas would be far less exciting, not as good offensively. But would still be a huge boost, and not paint us in a corner like the other two.

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17 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

^ i like it.

Kind of a tricky situation. We have to spend to improve now to make trout want to stay. But we cant overspend in terms of possibly losing out on trout later.

Harper makes a ton of sense. Lefty, plays a spot we need production from badly. But likely way too expensive.

Machado makes a lot of sense. But as mentioned, he wants to play SS. Im betting that depends on the market, though.

Moustakas might be the best fit..."cheaper", would be a shorter term contract, harpers lefty bat at machados position.

Trout+Harper would be insane. Trout+Machado would be fantastic. Trout+Moustakas would be far less exciting, not as good offensively. But would still be a huge boost, and not paint us in a corner like the other two.

Moose is certainly a possibility, and by far the most economical one.  The 3B market is fairly cold and a buyer's market.  The Royals can't offer him arbitration either, so we could gamble on him and see what happens.

Still, I'd love to have Harper, and he'd effectively take over for Calhoun.  Calhoun could be our 4th OF for that one season, then we move on from him (decline his option).  We badly need another power LH hitter to provide some lineup balance to our RH dominant lineup.

Imagine if we actually followed the scenario I played out - sign Herrera, Grandal, Harper.  We'd roll out a lineup of:  Simmons, Trout, Harper, Upton, Ohtani, Pujols, Grandal, Cozart, Fletcher (or Ward, depending on who emerges).  We'd have 3 LH power hitters (Harper, Ohtani, Grandal) in that lineup.  

Or, if management decides to completely overhaul and actually moves on from Pujols, we can slot Thaiss in there instead, and have something like this:  Simmons, Trout, Harper, Upton, Ohtani, Grandal, Thaiss, Cozart, Fletcher.

Very stacked lineup, and all it'd take is just a few moves.  It's doable, man.  I recognize that it's unlikely we commit to Harper what he wants, but as you can see, it's financially doable, and it would enable us to retain every single prospect we have.  If Ward takes over 3B and Cozart shifts to 2B, then Fletcher and Fernandez can be on the bench and serve utility roles (2B/SS for Fletcher, 3B/1B for Fernandez).  Briceno could be the backup catcher.  We'd still be about roughly 10-15 mil under the luxury tax level, too.

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Totally agree its doable. I just dont think were interested. Even though it would make sense. Trout/harper in their prime = marketing revenue and real production at the same time. From a business sense alone it should entice. But i think washington/cubs/dodgers are where he lands. 

Fun to daydream though. I imagine trout would dig on hitting in front of harper the next decade or so, give or take.

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1 minute ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Totally agree its doable. I just dont think were interested. Even though it would make sense. Trout/harper in their prime = marketing revenue and real production at the same time. From a business sense alone it should entice. But i think washington/cubs/dodgers are where he lands. 

Fun to daydream though. I imagine trout would dig on hitting in front of harper the next decade or so, give or take.

Trout, Harper, Ohtani - we'd be the biggest attraction out west, bar none.  Arte would be raking in the marketing cash for sure.  

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1 minute ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Adding to that, with this draft being so pitcher heavy, we could set ourselves up with a strong affordable next wave through the two (trout harper) contracts if we do it right..

Our pitching pipeline is probably what enables us to pursue the aforementioned moves, too.  Barria (about to graduate), Canning, Suarez, Castillo in the upper minors.  Rodriguez and Soriano are years away, but they have a lot of potential.  Plus anyone else we are about to draft, etc...

I don't normally advise going after expensive veterans, but I feel the combination of our current star level talent (Trout, Ohtani, Simmons) and our strong wave of youth emerging put us in this great position to swing for the fences on someone like Harper.

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On 6/3/2018 at 9:10 AM, Warfarin said:

So bumping this thread, but doing some basic math, we probably sit around 135-140mil entering the offseason.  I am projecting in arbitration raises for most eligible players, but I am also assuming we do NOT offer arbitration to Shoemaker (would add 6+mil) and JC Ramirez (would add 2.5+mil).  I am also assuming we decline Valbuena's option.

The luxury tax limit is 206mil next year, so "in theory," we have roughly 65-70mil to spend to fill our gaps.  This includes the need to sign a catcher (re-sign Maldonado or sign Grandal as his replacement) and the possibility of re-signing Richards.

We do have a good amount of money to play with, especially if we decide to move on from Richards.  Assuming we spend 7-10mil to sign a catcher, we still have a lot of money to utilize.  I am assuming we'll spend for at least one reliever.  You can see though, with this kind of money available, there is very much the possibility we can indeed pursue one star player (Harper, Machado) and reasonably fit him under the cap.

For example, we could re-sign Maldonado and sign Herrera + Harper for probably a combined 50-55mil AAV.  With the projected arbitration raises already built in, this leaves us comfortably under the cap.  We commit to a few veterans, but we also entrust our farm to fill in a lot of gaps (either Fletcher or Ward takes over 2B/3B with Cozart shifting to the empty spot, JMF assumes Valbuena's spot, Canning/Suarez get promoted to the rotation, etc).  This way, we infuse both young talent and some veterans, and hopefully, this leads to an overall winner.

 

Right now, Competitive Balance Payroll for 2019 is at 115.6 plus the arbitration guys. I doubt Shoemaker or Marte gets arbitration. The only ones that are likely to get a significant raise is Heaney (to around 2-3 M, and Skaggs to around $5M. Ramirez, Alvarez, Bedrosian, and Parker will make around the same or maybe a small amount, so maybe $15M for all of these 5-6 guys.

We are close to that in 2020, and then in 2021, it drops significantly to around 60M (Trout and Simmons will need to be resigned, Cozart is also a FA), only Upton and Pujols are on the books for 2021. In 2022, only Upton is under contract.

So, Sign Moustakas and Harper, resign Richards and keep the closer they acquire at midseason. Oh and resign Trout for $1M annually more than Harper signs for.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Hubs said:

 

Right now, Competitive Balance Payroll for 2019 is at 115.6 plus the arbitration guys. I doubt Shoemaker or Marte gets arbitration. The only ones that are likely to get a significant raise is Heaney (to around 2-3 M, and Skaggs to around $5M. Ramirez, Alvarez, Bedrosian, and Parker will make around the same or maybe a small amount, so maybe $15M for all of these 5-6 guys.

We are close to that in 2020, and then in 2021, it drops significantly to around 60M (Trout and Simmons will need to be resigned, Cozart is also a FA), only Upton and Pujols are on the books for 2021. In 2022, only Upton is under contract.

So, Sign Moustakas and Harper, resign Richards and keep the closer they acquire at midseason. Oh and resign Trout for $1M annually more than Harper signs for.

 

 

Yes, but you also have to factor in 5-6 guys (or more maybe) earning the major league minimum, so that's roughly another 3mil or so on top of that projected 15mil.  I tried to create a little wiggle room in my projection, which is why I put 135-140mil (I'd rather err on the side of guessing a bit higher than lower).  But yeah, that said, likely somewhere in the 130mils, assuming that both Shoemaker and Ramirez are not offered arbitration.

You forgot to include a catcher in there, and I don't think we'd sign both Moose and Harper.  Give me the star!

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On 6/1/2018 at 4:24 PM, Hubs said:

I'd add Moutakas, Kennedy, and Herrera if the Royals would deal them and take back most of Kinsler's or Calhoun's Salary this year in addition to prospects.

I'd try to hang on to Fletcher, Thaiss, Hermosillio, Adell, Jones and Canning.

I'd trade most any other prospect.

keep Jose Suarez also...

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