The Official TROUTstanding Thread

[HanfordGuy]

 

[tdawg87]

[Angelsjunky]

We're still haven't reached Trout Day yet - he fell a bit back during his slump - but he's 5th in the majors with 3.6, 0.6 behind Machado (in 36 fewer PA, so just behind Machado's WAR/PA pace...Trout would be at 4.1 with the same PA).

He's also 0.4 away from becoming the 39th position player to reach 80 fWAR. BR has him 0.1 WAR away from 80, tied with Bagwell with 79.9.

 

[Angelsjunky]

One of my favorite WAR stats is JAWS, which averages out a player's career WAR and total from their best seven years (WAR7), to give more credit to peak level. I think JAWS is a better indicator of overall greatness than just pure WAR totals. I wish it used Fangraphs, but it uses BR, which is good enough for overall totals.

Anyhow, Trout has been 5th among centerfielders for awhile - either last year or the year before:

1. Mays 114.8
2. Cobb 110.2
3. Speaker 98.7
4. Mantle 87.4
5. Trout 72.5
6. Griffey 68.9
7. DiMaggio 65.6

After those guys, there's a drop-off to players like Snider, Beltran, Lofton, A Jones, etc.

Trout is still far behind Mantle, but will almost certainly pass him. His WAR7 is already slightly higher: 65.1 to 64.7, so he just needs to catch him in career WAR: 110.2 to 79.9 (-30.3). Also, his 7th best WAR season, according to BR, is 7.7, so he's well on pace (3.8) to surpassing that this year.

So let's say he bumps up his WAR7 to 65.5, he'll finish this year around 75-76 JAWS. If he averages 7 WAR for the next four years, he'll pass Mantle sometime in 2026, his age 34 season. If he has another year or two above 8 WAR, it will be in 2025 (age 33). 

Passing Speaker will be another matter, but is within the realm of possibility - and will require a good dose of health. To get to 100 JAWS - a mark that only six players have accomplished (Ruth, Bonds, Mays, Cobb, Aaron, Hornsby) - he'll need to reach about 135 WAR, which would be an average of about 6.3 WAR per year over the rest of his contract. 

Oh, Trout's 72.5 JAWS is 28th best all-time. He passed Beltre, Brett, and Kaline this year, with Boggs (73.9) just ahead.

 

 

[HanfordGuy]

 

[Angelsjunky]

Trout's last 16 games: 66 PA, .345/.455/.927, 9 HR, 272 wRC+, 1.6 WAR

[Taylor]

5 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Trout's last 16 games: 66 PA, .345/.455/.927, 9 HR, 272 wRC+, 1.6 WAR

He's still got it.

[T.G.]

17 hours ago, Taylor said:

He's still got it.

0 for 4 yesterday.  Thanks Taylor.

[Taylor]

23 minutes ago, True Grich said:

0 for 4 yesterday.  Thanks Taylor.

This is the last time I make a subjective statement.

[HanfordGuy]

 

[HanfordGuy]

 

[HanfordGuy]

 

[HanfordGuy]

 

[HanfordGuy]

 

[jsnpritchett]

 

[Jay]

On 7/14/2021 at 2:25 PM, Angel Oracle said:

Any update on when the rehab assignment starts?

It’s been just over 8 weeks since the injury and the prognosis was 6-8 weeks.

The last time I clicked on this thread, this was the most recent post.

[fan_since79]

I'd be surprised if Trout plays again this year.

I hope I'm wrong.

[Chuck]

 

[Chuck]

 

[m0nkey]

Don't know if this was posted yet.  We like round numbers

 

[Angelsjunky]

Well, here's something. Since returning from injury, Trout has passed four players on the all-time fWAR list for position players, and not just no-names:

31. George Davis 84.6

32. Chipper Jones 84.6

33. Adrian Beltre 83.8

34. Joe DiMaggio 83.0

35. Mike Trout 80.7

36. Robert Clemente 80.6

37. Jeff Bagwell 80.2

38. Pete Rose 80.2

39. Brooks Robinson 80.2

With 26 games left, he's on pace for about 6.0 WAR (he's at 4.7 now)...so will probably finish in the 81-83 WAR range, so not quite passing DiMaggio - unless he goes on an absolute tear. But he went from 43rd to 35th year, and barring catastrophic injury, will enter the top 30 next year. He'll only need about 4 WAR to do so.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[Chuck]

 

[Chuck]

 

[HanfordGuy]

 

[HanfordGuy]