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Update on fWAR leaders through age X.

Through Age 28

1. Ty Cobb 78.6

2. Rogers Hornsby 77.0

3. Mike Trout 76.0

4. Mickey Mantle 74.8

5. Jimmie Foxx 71.3

 

Through Age 29 (2021 for Trout), with Trout's WAR behind

1. Rogers Hornsby 87.9 (-11.9)

2. Ty Cobb 86.4 (-10.4)

3. Mickey Mantle 85.1 (-9.1)

4. Babe Ruth 79.4 (-3.4)

5. Alex Rodriguez 77.7 (-1.7)

6. Mel Ott 76.9 (-0.9)

7. Mike Trout 76.0

So clearly Trout has no chance of re-taking the lead, and unlikely to surpass Cobb for second.  He probably won't surpass Mantle for third unless he improves his defense, but should pass the other three easily.

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Trout and his two sons.....  

I liked this response to the Harper-Goldshmidt tweet: "It still is a coin flip, except Trout is heads and tails, and Harper is the coin landing on its side"

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50 minutes ago, Blarg said:

WAR is cumulative (like RBI or home runs) so a 60 game season really screwed Trout's stats.

Yes. But what set him apart from others is 1) His consistency with the bat, generally at a 170+ wRC+ level, and 2) his strong secondary skills, namely baserunning and usually pretty good defense.

There are other hitters in the big leagues that are close, equal, or even slightly better than Trout in a given year. But year in and year out he's one of the very best. But it is those other factors added on top that usually give him the WAR crown.

Defensive Runs tend to fluctuate year to year, but obviously Trout's defense was down this year - and this seems to pass the eyeball test. I don't know what it is, but it is almost like he has a default mode that he falls back to, and that he has to constantly put attention to adjusting himself and staying alert, like he did in 2018 after he vowed to improve his defense.

As for his baserunning, it remains very good but he just hasn't been stealing many bases for the last couple years. But I don't think he needs to steal a ton of bases to get a WAR bump - last year he only stole 11, but still produced 7.0 Baserunning Runs, higher than 2018 when he had 5.0 with 24 SB. Baserunning Runs factors in other things besides just SB, and Trout excels on the paths.

All that said, I think the dip in wRC+ is largely a product of the shortened season, and he should be back closer to 180 next year. If he improves his defense, he can produce 9+ WAR seasons again. If not, he might be more of a 7-8 WAR player going forward.

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A more modest WAR projection for Trout, taking into account what we saw this year. I'm going to assume that he's going to bounce back with the bat for a few years, but maybe not as much defensively.

Still peakish Trout, 2021-23 (age 29-31): 8, 9, 7 

Very good Trout, 2024-27 (age 32-35): 6, 7, 5, 6, 4

Old but decent Trout, 2028-30 (age 36-38): 3, 4, 2

That gets him to 100 at the end of his age 31 season, which would be 3rd behind Cobb and Hornsby. Through age 35, he'd be at 128 (or so), 3rd behind Ruth and Hornsby, and then he'd finish his career around 140--or at least his contract--which would be good for 5th all-time behind Ruth, Bonds, Mays, and Cobb.

Now that is a modest projection. He could also bounce back and have a string of 9-10 WAR seasons and then decline slower, finishing with 150 or so WAR, behind only Ruth and Bonds. 

 

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53 minutes ago, lester said:

lol...but its true

No, it really isn't. Mike Trout stats:

2018 - 140 games / 124 strikeouts = 0.89 S/O per game

2019 - 134 games / 120 strikeouts = 0.90 S/O per game

2020 - 53 games / 56 strikeouts = 1.05 S/O per game

You're either a troll, or a misinformed numpty.

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Here's an update on where Trout is on the all-time fWAR leaderboard. This includes all those within 10 WAR of Trout's season starting WAR (75.6), so are all contenders to be passed this year.

29. Roger Connor 86.2

30. George Brett 84.6

31. George Davis 84.6

32. Chipper Jones 84.6

33. Adrian Beltre 84.1

34. Joe DiMaggio 83.1

35. Roberto Clemente 80.6

36. Jeff Bagwell 80.2

37. Pete Rose 80.2

38. Brooks Robinson 80.2

39. Dan Brouthers 79.5

40. Charlie Gehringer 78.6

41. Ken Griffey Jr 77.7

42. Bill Dahlen 77.4

43. Mike Trout 76.4

44. Johnny Bench 74.8

45. Frankie Frisch 74.8

He should be in the top 40 sometime in the next month or month and a half, and the top 30 by the end of this year or early next year. Beyond that--the top 20 (Jimmie Foxx at #20 with 101.8), top 10 (Stan Musial with 126.8), etc, I won't speculate. We don't yet know when or how he'll decline, which will determine whether he ends with ~110-120 WAR (very early/quick decline), ~130-140 WAR (moderate decline), or 150+ WAR (late/slow decline).

 

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8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yep. It also lost him the "best through age X" run, and he'll probably never get it back.

Then again, DiMaggio lost his 28-30 years to service time so he also should be higher on the list, along with Williams that missed time for WWII and Korea. 

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13 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Then again, DiMaggio lost his 28-30 years to service time so he also should be higher on the list, along with Williams that missed time for WWII and Korea. 

Williams is particularly striking because he lost three full seasons during his prime, when he was averaging over 10 WAR per season, then most of two more a few years later. WIthout the wars, Williams would be there with Ruth and Bonds - above Cobb and Mays.

In other words, fuck war for reducing Ted's WAR.

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