The Official TROUTstanding Thread

[Taylor]

The Mariners are Trout's slumpbuster.

[tdawg87]

On 7/9/2020 at 3:20 PM, Chuckster70 said:

My grandson Kason was pumped to get a Mike Trout jersey for his one-year birthday yesterday. 

That's a literal 10 lb weight he's just casually lifting up like it's a toy.

[Angel Oracle]

Hitting .400 since July 29

Seven HRs and 14 rbis in just 13 games played so far

Edited August 11, 2020 by Angel Oracle

[Chuck]

On 8/6/2020 at 11:03 AM, tdawg87 said:

That's a literal 10 lb weight he's just casually lifting up like it's a toy.

Just like his grandpa!! Throwing around weights like it's no big deal.

[Chuck]

Insane!

 

[fan_since79]

The next 5-6 years or beyond could be epic. Ruth was 32 in 1927 and just take a look at what he did that year. He was still putting up mind-boggling numbers in 1932 at the age of 37 before starting to level off a bit.

[Chuck]

 

[ScottT]

"Griffey" is trending on Twitter.

People are arguing if he was better than Trout.

I was a Griffey fan since he played nearby in the minors.... and the Angels hardly had any good position players in that Era. He was young... a few years older than me, always seemed to be having fun.  I'm still a fan.

I don't know the answer. I don't really care. Its just been a blast to watch a truly great player play for my favorite team.

[Blarg]

In his 22 seasons Griffey amassed an  83.8 WAR.

Trout, even with this messed up shortened season has accumulated  73.4 WAR.

Next year, at age 29, Trout could pass Griffey. 

[ScottT]

Trouts career war will probably dwarf Griffey's eventually.  Their peaks are somewhat debatable.  Defensive metrics are always iffy.

[ScottT]

Griffeys surrounding lineup was probably better. Edgar Martinez, Alex Rodriguez etc

[Angelsjunky]

22 hours ago, ScottT said:

"Griffey" is trending on Twitter.

People are arguing if he was better than Trout.

I was a Griffey fan since he played nearby in the minors.... and the Angels hardly had any good position players in that Era. He was young... a few years older than me, always seemed to be having fun.  I'm still a fan.

I don't know the answer. I don't really care. Its just been a blast to watch a truly great player play for my favorite team.

I don’t think it is debatable, if you consider advanced statistics and context. Further, Trout has consistently been the best player in the game throughout his career while Griffey was always second (Or third) fiddle to Bonds and A Rod.

[Angelsjunky]

Let's get into it a bit. Obviously we can't compare total careers, but barring a near-total (Griffey-esque) collapse in his 30s, Trout will almost certainly end up well surpassing Griffey. But what about peak? We can compare Trout's eight full seasons (2012-19) to Griffey's best eight-year span (1991-98):

Trout 2012-19: 72.7 WAR (1st ahead of Posey with 47.1), 175 wRC+ (1st ahead of Judge with 152)

Griffey 1991-98: 56.1 fWAR (2nd behind Bonds with 68.1), 150 wRC+ (8th)

This tells most of the story. Trout has been so much better than his peers in a way that Griffey wasn't. Griffey was consistently among the best players in the game, leading the majors in fWAR three times, second once, while Trout lead the majors six times, was second once.

Traditional stats:

Trout: .308/.422/.587, 280 HR, 883 Runs, 736 RBI, 196 SB

Griffey: .304/.386/.596, 312 HR, 788 Runs, 877 RBI, 111 SB

Similar BA. Griffey had a slight edge in HR and SLG, as well as more RBI, but Trout had a huge edge in OBP, as well as runs and SB. It should be noted that Griffey played in  a much higher scoring context and generally on a better team, so any edge he has is explained by that.

The bottom line is that Trout was a better player in terms of peak. Griffey was a better defender, but Trout was significantly better with the bat and solidly better on the base paths. Griffey was a great player, one of the best of the 90s and a top 10 CF of all time, but Trout is inner circle Hall of Fame.

 

[JustATroutFan]

Tradition stats can be overrated if you don't consider the run-scoring environment that a hitter plays in. Todd Helton's traditional numbers look a lot like Trout's but Trout never got to play at Coors Field for half of his games every single season. And no one would put Helton in the same class as Trout. 

 

As for Griffrey Jr., he's a better defender than Trout. Although defensive WAR is a stupid a flawed stat. It's been proven already. Guys like Pedro Alvarez (a poor defender) might put up a positive defensive WAR in a particular year. Doesn't make them good defenders. Trout's a better hitter than Griffrey in terms of OPS+ and it's not even close. 

[Angelsjunky]

Yes, agreed, but to be fair we really need to compare them through a similar age. They played almost exactly the same amount of games through age 27 (Trout's last full season, 2019), so the comparison is easy:

Trout through age 27 season (2019): 1199 games, .305/.419/.581, 285 HR, 200 SB, 172 wRC+, 73.4 fWAR

Griffey through age 27 season (1997): 1214 games, .302/.381/.562, 294 HR, 123 SB, 144 wRC+, 57.0 fWAR

1997 was Griffey's last season above 7 WAR, although he was still very good from 1998-2000, accruing another 16.9 fWAR, but then drastically declined from 2001 (age 31) on, never having another 3+ fWAR season.

Let us hope that Trout doesn't decline like Griffey (or Pujols) did.

Edited September 5, 2020 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

Another way of comparing.

10 WAR seasons: Trout 2, Griffey 0 (Bonds 5)

9 WAR seasons: Trout 5, Griffey 2 (Bonds 8 )

8 WAR seasons: Trout 7, Griffey 3 (Bonds 10)

6 WAR seasons: Trout 8, Griffey 6 (Bonds 15)

That includes their entire careers and all 8 of Trout's full seasons. He hasn't had a chance to pad those numbers with decline years yet, but my guess is that he'll end up with more than double Griffey's 6 WAR seasons, just like he does with 8-10 WAR seasons.

EDITED to add in Bonds, for something for Trout to shoot for. There's little chance he'll catch Bonds' 10 WAR seasons, but all of the others are possible.

Edited September 5, 2020 by Angelsjunky

[Taylor]

Edge: Lowell

[JustATroutFan]

Until you brought it up, @Angelsjunky, I didn't remember that Griffey Jr. stole that many bases. When it comes to Bonds, it doesn't take away what he did from 1990-1998. 1998 was his last season without using steroids. The man could do everything well on the diamond. He was Trout before Trout became Trout. Well, minus the attitude problems. 

[Angel Oracle]

On 8/23/2020 at 1:39 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Let's get into it a bit. Obviously we can't compare total careers, but barring a near-total (Griffey-esque) collapse in his 30s, Trout will almost certainly end up well surpassing Griffey. But what about peak? We can compare Trout's eight full seasons (2012-19) to Griffey's best eight-year span (1991-98):

Trout 2012-19: 72.7 WAR (1st ahead of Posey with 47.1), 175 wRC+ (1st ahead of Judge with 152)

Griffey 1991-98: 56.1 fWAR (2nd behind Bonds with 68.1), 150 wRC+ (8th)

This tells most of the story. Trout has been so much better than his peers in a way that Griffey wasn't. Griffey was consistently among the best players in the game, leading the majors in fWAR three times, second once, while Trout lead the majors six times, was second once.

Traditional stats:

Trout: .308/.422/.587, 280 HR, 883 Runs, 736 RBI, 196 SB

Griffey: .304/.386/.596, 312 HR, 788 Runs, 877 RBI, 111 SB

Similar BA. Griffey had a slight edge in HR and SLG, as well as more RBI, but Trout had a huge edge in OBP, as well as runs and SB. It should be noted that Griffey played in  a much higher scoring context and generally on a better team, so any edge he has is explained by that.

The bottom line is that Trout was a better player in terms of peak. Griffey was a better defender, but Trout was significantly better with the bat and solidly better on the base paths. Griffey was a great player, one of the best of the 90s and a top 10 CF of all time, but Trout is inner circle Hall of Fame.

 

Griffey also played in a hitting friendly stadium through 1998.

[Angelsjunky]

11 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Griffey also played in a hitting friendly stadium through 1998.

Yes, which is why the wRC+ gap is larger than the triple-slash would normally entail.

[JustATroutFan]

Trout is back to walking a lot again. Some things just never change in life. 

[Angelsjunky]

Update on fWAR leaders through age X.

Through Age 28

1. Ty Cobb 78.6

2. Rogers Hornsby 77.0

3. Mike Trout 76.0

4. Mickey Mantle 74.8

5. Jimmie Foxx 71.3

 

Through Age 29 (2021 for Trout), with Trout's WAR behind

1. Rogers Hornsby 87.9 (-11.9)

2. Ty Cobb 86.4 (-10.4)

3. Mickey Mantle 85.1 (-9.1)

4. Babe Ruth 79.4 (-3.4)

5. Alex Rodriguez 77.7 (-1.7)

6. Mel Ott 76.9 (-0.9)

7. Mike Trout 76.0

So clearly Trout has no chance of re-taking the lead, and unlikely to surpass Cobb for second.  He probably won't surpass Mantle for third unless he improves his defense, but should pass the other three easily.

[Blarg]

WAR is cumulative (like RBI or home runs) so a 60 game season really screwed Trout's stats.

[Angelsjunky]

50 minutes ago, Blarg said:

WAR is cumulative (like RBI or home runs) so a 60 game season really screwed Trout's stats.

Yes. But what set him apart from others is 1) His consistency with the bat, generally at a 170+ wRC+ level, and 2) his strong secondary skills, namely baserunning and usually pretty good defense.

There are other hitters in the big leagues that are close, equal, or even slightly better than Trout in a given year. But year in and year out he's one of the very best. But it is those other factors added on top that usually give him the WAR crown.

Defensive Runs tend to fluctuate year to year, but obviously Trout's defense was down this year - and this seems to pass the eyeball test. I don't know what it is, but it is almost like he has a default mode that he falls back to, and that he has to constantly put attention to adjusting himself and staying alert, like he did in 2018 after he vowed to improve his defense.

As for his baserunning, it remains very good but he just hasn't been stealing many bases for the last couple years. But I don't think he needs to steal a ton of bases to get a WAR bump - last year he only stole 11, but still produced 7.0 Baserunning Runs, higher than 2018 when he had 5.0 with 24 SB. Baserunning Runs factors in other things besides just SB, and Trout excels on the paths.

All that said, I think the dip in wRC+ is largely a product of the shortened season, and he should be back closer to 180 next year. If he improves his defense, he can produce 9+ WAR seasons again. If not, he might be more of a 7-8 WAR player going forward.

[Angelsjunky]

A more modest WAR projection for Trout, taking into account what we saw this year. I'm going to assume that he's going to bounce back with the bat for a few years, but maybe not as much defensively.

Still peakish Trout, 2021-23 (age 29-31): 8, 9, 7 

Very good Trout, 2024-27 (age 32-35): 6, 7, 5, 6, 4

Old but decent Trout, 2028-30 (age 36-38): 3, 4, 2

That gets him to 100 at the end of his age 31 season, which would be 3rd behind Cobb and Hornsby. Through age 35, he'd be at 128 (or so), 3rd behind Ruth and Hornsby, and then he'd finish his career around 140--or at least his contract--which would be good for 5th all-time behind Ruth, Bonds, Mays, and Cobb.

Now that is a modest projection. He could also bounce back and have a string of 9-10 WAR seasons and then decline slower, finishing with 150 or so WAR, behind only Ruth and Bonds.