Chuckster70

The Official TROUTstanding Thread

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13 hours ago, JustATroutFan said:

That's the one unfortunate record that Trout might have set once his big league career is over, most career strikeouts. Reggie Jackson has the most strikeouts ever for a hitter at 2,597. But even if Trout breaks Reggie's strikeout record, that'll be a product of how long he's played. Not as bad as it would be years ago to break the strikeout record considering pitchers throw harder than ever and there's information about a hitters' hot and cold zone nowadays. 

If he didn't break that record, would he have an asterisk next to his strikeout total?

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On 4/27/2020 at 1:23 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Here's where Trout is, relative to ages:

Age 27: + 4.6

Age 28: -5.2 (Cobb)

Age 29: -14.5 (Hornsby)

Age 30: -24.5 (Cobb)

Age 31: -30.0 (Cobb)

Age 32: -38.5 (Hornsby)

Age 33: -49.6 (Hornsby)

Age 34: -49.6 (Hornsby)

Age 35: -52.9 (Ruth)...etc

I suppose there's a tiny window of opportunity at age 31, but assuming 0 WAR in 2020, he'd need to average 10 WAR in 2021-23, and he's only just barely surpassed 10 twice, and that was in 2012-13 when he was a tad faster. And then there's another window at age 34 after Hornsby stopped playing full time and led two years in a row with the same total, but averaging 8.3 for six years from age 29-34 is a tall order. It would be 7.6 to match Ruth at age 35, so that's vaguely possible, I suppose. 

Reposted from two months ago. Trout would need 5.3 fWAR to maintain his "Best WAR through Age X" crown--a virtual impossibility. If he goes hogwild in 2020 on rusty pitchers and has a career year in 2021, he could reclaim it after 2021 (through age 29), but that is quite unlikely. He'd need to hit like Cody Bellinger's start last year, and surpass his very best season next year.

As I said in the quoted part, his best chance of regaining the crown would be at age 31 or 34. Something like so:

Age 28 (2020): 3.5 (-1.7)

Age 29 (2021): 9.5 (-1.5)

Age 30 (2022): 9.0 (-2.5)

Age 31 (2023): 8.5 (+0.5)

Etc.

So he'd pretty much "only" have to stay healthy and not decline significantly.

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