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The Official TROUTstanding Thread


Chuck

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  • 1 month later...

 

On 2/25/2020 at 2:15 PM, Angelsjunky said:

For gits and shiggles, here's the Fangraphs  version:

1. Trout 73.4

2. Cobb 68.8

3. Mantle 67.9

4. Hornsby  64.6

5. Foxx 64.6

And here's age 28, what Trout vies for in 2020:

1. Cobb 78.6

2. Hornsby 77.0

3. Mantle 74.8

4. Trout 73.4 (-5.2)

5. Foxx 71.3

If healthy, Trout should be the age 28 leader before the All-Star break and shortly after be the 39th position player with 80+ career fWAR.

Sorry,  tdawg.

Was literally just typing my question before scrolling up to find the answer to see how he would rank if he would have a 0 WAR age 28 "season".  Do you know what it looks like for age 29?  Could he reclaim the #1 spot with a monster 2021 season, or would he be too far behind?

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4 hours ago, m0nkey said:

 

Was literally just typing my question before scrolling up to find the answer to see how he would rank if he would have a 0 WAR age 28 "season".  Do you know what it looks like for age 29?  Could he reclaim the #1 spot with a monster 2021 season, or would he be too far behind?

Too far behind. 

fWAR Through Age 29

1. Hornsby 87.9

2. Cobb 86.4

3. Mantle 85.1

4. Ruth 79.4

5. Rodriguez 77.7

6. Ott 76.9

7. Foxx 75.3

8. Trout 73.4

Unless MLB surprises us and has a 90+ game season this year, Trout's days of leading this leaderboard are probably over. The problem is that Cobb and Hornsby  had some monster seasons in their late 20s and early 30s, and then Ruth eventually takes over.

Here's where Trout is, relative to ages:

Age 27: + 4.6

Age 28: -5.2 (Cobb)

Age 29: -14.5 (Hornsby)

Age 30: -24.5 (Cobb)

Age 31: -30.0 (Cobb)

Age 32: -38.5 (Hornsby)

Age 33: -49.6 (Hornsby)

Age 34: -49.6 (Hornsby)

Age 35: -52.9 (Ruth)...etc

I suppose there's a tiny window of opportunity at age 31, but assuming 0 WAR in 2020, he'd need to average 10 WAR in 2021-23, and he's only just barely surpassed 10 twice, and that was in 2012-13 when he was a tad faster. And then there's another window at age 34 after Hornsby stopped playing full time and led two years in a row with the same total, but averaging 8.3 for six years from age 29-34 is a tall order. It would be 7.6 to match Ruth at age 35, so that's vaguely possible, I suppose. 

Edited by Angelsjunky
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42 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, I know. Sorry. Started back at work a couple weeks ago, so have been re-adjusting to not having as much free time. I probably have 2-3 installments to go and will get the next one out soon.

 

Oh great. I was mostly breaking your balls, but was enjoying the series. I know our fans on social media (Twitter and Facebook) were too. 

Everyone here is spoiled on Trout content so you're not going to net a bunch of comments..

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...
13 hours ago, Theo Huxtable said:

Trout hasn't stuck out a single time this season.

That's the one unfortunate record that Trout might have set once his big league career is over, most career strikeouts. Reggie Jackson has the most strikeouts ever for a hitter at 2,597. But even if Trout breaks Reggie's strikeout record, that'll be a product of how long he's played. Not as bad as it would be years ago to break the strikeout record considering pitchers throw harder than ever and there's information about a hitters' hot and cold zone nowadays. 

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13 hours ago, JustATroutFan said:

That's the one unfortunate record that Trout might have set once his big league career is over, most career strikeouts. Reggie Jackson has the most strikeouts ever for a hitter at 2,597. But even if Trout breaks Reggie's strikeout record, that'll be a product of how long he's played. Not as bad as it would be years ago to break the strikeout record considering pitchers throw harder than ever and there's information about a hitters' hot and cold zone nowadays. 

If he didn't break that record, would he have an asterisk next to his strikeout total?

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On 4/27/2020 at 1:23 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Here's where Trout is, relative to ages:

Age 27: + 4.6

Age 28: -5.2 (Cobb)

Age 29: -14.5 (Hornsby)

Age 30: -24.5 (Cobb)

Age 31: -30.0 (Cobb)

Age 32: -38.5 (Hornsby)

Age 33: -49.6 (Hornsby)

Age 34: -49.6 (Hornsby)

Age 35: -52.9 (Ruth)...etc

I suppose there's a tiny window of opportunity at age 31, but assuming 0 WAR in 2020, he'd need to average 10 WAR in 2021-23, and he's only just barely surpassed 10 twice, and that was in 2012-13 when he was a tad faster. And then there's another window at age 34 after Hornsby stopped playing full time and led two years in a row with the same total, but averaging 8.3 for six years from age 29-34 is a tall order. It would be 7.6 to match Ruth at age 35, so that's vaguely possible, I suppose. 

Reposted from two months ago. Trout would need 5.3 fWAR to maintain his "Best WAR through Age X" crown--a virtual impossibility. If he goes hogwild in 2020 on rusty pitchers and has a career year in 2021, he could reclaim it after 2021 (through age 29), but that is quite unlikely. He'd need to hit like Cody Bellinger's start last year, and surpass his very best season next year.

As I said in the quoted part, his best chance of regaining the crown would be at age 31 or 34. Something like so:

Age 28 (2020): 3.5 (-1.7)

Age 29 (2021): 9.5 (-1.5)

Age 30 (2022): 9.0 (-2.5)

Age 31 (2023): 8.5 (+0.5)

Etc.

So he'd pretty much "only" have to stay healthy and not decline significantly.

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