Trout's clutchnes or lack thereof?

[GrittyVeterans]

.455 OBP

[Taylor]

Just now, GrittyVeterans said:

.455 OBP

That's insane. Dude is like three more 4-walk games from knocking on a .500 OBP.

[JustATroutFan]

I'm guessing the reason why Trout's OPS is low in the 9th and extra inning is because the pitchers walk him so many times that he's not used to hitting good pitches when he gets them. Pretty sneaky job by them.  

[JustATroutFan]

6 minutes ago, calscuf said:

Clutch!

Clutch walk in the 9th inning of tonight's game. 

[JustATroutFan]

3 minutes ago, Throwman91 said:

Trout finally got pitched to and he grounded into the shift, that was the inning we had the best chance to score, teams really should walk him less, he's not that clutch.

To be honest, he didn't get any good pitches to hit in that at bat, either. He got pitched to but he didn't get any meatballs, though.

[JustATroutFan]

Well, Miggy's career OPS in the 9th inning and extra innings are .847 and .796, respectively. Using the logic of @Dochalo , Miggy isn't "clutch" either, even though he has the reputation of a "clutch" hitter.

[JustATroutFan]

1 minute ago, Throwman91 said:

Trout strikes out looking with 2 on no outs, clutch my butt.  Betts will win MVP this season.

Did you forget that clutch throw today by Trout late in the game!? LOL

[JustATroutFan]

2 minutes ago, Throwman91 said:

I saw Kinsler make an extremely quick throw to the plate, Trout had a decent relay though.

LOL, decent relay. Pretty good relay! You would have messed up if you were in Trout's shoes. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

Trout leads the majors in situational win probability added. (He also led in 2016 and was 3rd last year.)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018-batting-leaders.shtml

Win probability added (WPA) basically looks at how your plate appearances swing the chances of winning, positively or negatively, based on the inning, score, runners, outs situation.

Adding the situational factor (using the leverage index) basically weights it more toward late-inning situations. 

If you hit a 3-run HR in a 1-1 game in the 3rd inning, obviously that increases the win probability quite a bit. But when you add the leverage index in there, it gives a little more weight to a solo homer in a tie game in the 8th.

[Lou]

On 5/12/2018 at 3:42 PM, WeaverFever said:

I’ll try to keep my thoughts to myself after I almost got ran off the forum with my comments earlier this year about Trout’s “clutchness” 

 

I didn’t realize his last walk off came in 2015?? 

 

We all know he is the best player in baseball. He’s a joy to watch. But I don’t think anyone remembers a David Ortiz walkoff from May. They just remember the multiple walkoffs in October. 

 

Im hoping Mike gets his chance this October. 

I don't care about clutchiness, however, I'm interested to hear how you were " almost run off the board" 

Edited May 14, 2018 by Lou

[laagamer]

19 hours ago, Throwman91 said:

Trout finally got pitched to and he grounded into the shift, that was the inning we had the best chance to score, teams really should walk him less, he's not that clutch.

Remember that grand slam against Chris Sale?

Ya, me neither. 

/s

[JustATroutFan]

57 minutes ago, laagamer said:

Remember that grand slam against Chris Sale?

Ya, me neither. 

/s

He probably doesn't remember that grand slam off of Sale in 2014 because he's an idiot. Or the walk off home run off of Uehara the following season in July. 

[Ohtaniland]

[Ohtaniland]

When I think of clutch, Jordan, Magic, Kobe, Labron and Trout immediately come to mind.

I oftened wondered what it means to be clutch and it doesn’t necessarily mean win or lose but.....

How does that player perform in a losing situation?

Mike Trout has played in 451 losing games but had a .832 ops in those losses. 

Justin Upton has played in 769 losing games but had a .669 ops in those losses. 

You can still prove to be clutch in losing situations. or not. 

[JustATroutFan]

33 minutes ago, BackUpTheTruck said:

My one and only concern with Trout is that he has trouble with high fastballs.  Facing Aroldis Chapman, Ken Giles, and Craig Kimbrel late in playoff games, I would take Pujols and Ohtani over Trout.  Other than that, I think Trout is very clutch.

@Jeff Fletcher has stated that Trout is like the leader in WPA for years now numerous times on here. And Trout is great in high leverage situations. His career slash line in that situation proves that. You can't always get clutch hit but last time I check, no one is perfect.

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Trout leads the majors in situational win probability added. (He also led in 2016 and was 3rd last year.)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018-batting-leaders.shtml

Win probability added (WPA) basically looks at how your plate appearances swing the chances of winning, positively or negatively, based on the inning, score, runners, outs situation.

Adding the situational factor (using the leverage index) basically weights it more toward late-inning situations. 

If you hit a 3-run HR in a 1-1 game in the 3rd inning, obviously that increases the win probability quite a bit. But when you add the leverage index in there, it gives a little more weight to a solo homer in a tie game in the 8th.

Betts actually leads the majors in WPA.  Trout leads in WPA/Li which removes leverage from the equation which actually strengthens the case that he's not clutch Jeff.  

The 'Clutch' stat on fangraphs is actually a measure of the difference between how a player performs in high leverage vs. not.  This year, Trout is at -1.13 which leads the league.  

Since he's been at the major league level, he's lead everyone in WPA as expected.  But he's a bit better in lower leverage than high leverage which brings down his 'clutch' number.  That said, the one thing fangraphs doesn't do is show that number as a ratio of his overall WPA.  

So is Trout as good in high leverage as he is the rest of the time? Not quite, but he's still very very good.  Does that make him not clutch?  Maybe by a little bit, but keep in mind that the higher the leverage, the less chance another team is going to give him an opportunity.  It's either get him out or walk him.  

It's impressive that he's done as well as he has to be honest.  

[JustATroutFan]

25 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Betts actually leads the majors in WPA.  Trout leads in WPA/Li which removes leverage from the equation which actually strengthens the case that he's not clutch Jeff.  

The 'Clutch' stat on fangraphs is actually a measure of the difference between how a player performs in high leverage vs. not.  This year, Trout is at -1.13 which leads the league.  

Since he's been at the major league level, he's lead everyone in WPA as expected.  But he's a bit better in lower leverage than high leverage which brings down his 'clutch' number.  That said, the one thing fangraphs doesn't do is show that number as a ratio of his overall WPA.  

So is Trout as good in high leverage as he is the rest of the time? Not quite, but he's still very very good.  Does that make him not clutch?  Maybe by a little bit, but keep in mind that the higher the leverage, the less chance another team is going to give him an opportunity.  It's either get him out or walk him.  

It's impressive that he's done as well as he has to be honest.  

I told you last night that the reason why his OPS in the 9th inning and extra inning is low but OBP is still high is because he gets walks a lot of time in those innings.  I guess when the pitchers do get Trout out is because he's not expecting that he'll get good pitches to hit since he's used to being pitched carefully. Sneaky-like strategy.

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, BackUpTheTruck said:

My one and only concern with Trout is that he has trouble with high fastballs.  Facing Aroldis Chapman, Ken Giles, and Craig Kimbrel late in playoff games, I would take Pujols and Ohtani over Trout.  Other than that, I think Trout is very clutch.

Lost me when you said you would take Pujols over Trout

[stormngt]

I am not enslaved by quantitative analysis

[Dtwncbad]

I can barely read stuff with the word clutch in it, and the worst ever was "close and late."

If you are down 4-0 in the 4th inning and you hit a 3 run homer, that is astronomically clutch, but it isnt "close and late" so that doesn't count as clutch I guess.

Also if you are down 6-0 in the 7th, and you hit a solo homer, what else CAN you do in that situation that is better?  That is the best you can do in that at bat to help your team but it isn't clutch?

Also what if a guy hits into three double plays with the bases loaded in the first six innings, but then knocks in the winning run in the 8th?  That is clutch when your own failures earlier in the game created the clutch moment?

Do we really think it is more clutch to single in the winning run in the 8th (after failing earlier in the game) over having a couple of doubles earlier in the game to have your team up by 6 runs in the 8th?

I dont know, I find too much of the "clutch" discussion terribly flawed.

[Dtwncbad]

And further is it more clutch to hit a two out bases empty double or hit a two out double to knock in the guy that just doubled?

My book says it's the same.  I'm pretty sure the "clutch" book says the rbi double is better.

But the guy that hit with the bases empty really cannot be penalized for nobody being on base when he came up.  I mean that is just stupid.

[T.G.]

I've given this a lot of thought...  Trout has amazing statistics, but I still want more.  Statistics don't give me memories... big plays in big situations do.  I tried to touch on this  at the end of last season...

[UndertheHalo]

JustATroutFan for sure has a Mike Trout poster on the ceiling above his bed right ? Also, probably in multiple rooms around the house. 

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, True Grich said:

I've given this a lot of thought...  Trout has amazing statistics, but I still want more.  Statistics don't give me memories... big plays in big situations do.  I tried to touch on this  at the end of last season...

Wow.  Maybe wish for a better roster around him instead of expecting him to carry the team even more than he does now.  Ridiculous.

[T.G.]

Just now, Dtwncbad said:

Wow.  Maybe wish for a better roster around him instead of expecting him to carry the team even more than he does now.  Ridiculous.

You obviously didn't read the link to my whole post...