The Blowpen

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, CubsFan said:

I have never said we are playing for second place.  angels can win the division.

But winning a 5 or 7 game series is an entirely different thing without two aces.

ohtani may be a dominant ace by October (but it's not a sure thing thus year)  but I don't see anyone else on the current roster that is another dominant ace.

 

 

Too many on this board have said we are playing for the 2nd wildcard spot.

Based on your comments your misinterpreting my original post.  I am  not saying we are better than Astros.  I  am saying ee are competing with them and I get annoyed when many post comments that we are playing for 2nd place.

[floplag]

59 minutes ago, CubsFan said:

It's not about playing for the Wild Card.

It's about is this current team good enough to win the World Series.  No, it's not.

The team can win the division but winning a 5 or 7 game series at the elite level is a different thing.

In the regular season every team goes through a 5 or 6 man rotation but come playoff time, If you have two aces then you can play them 4 times in a 5 game series or 5 times in a 7 game series.  That is when you need the two studs.  And if you don't have that then you are in trouble.

 

 

Nonsense.  You absolutely do not need 2 aces.   One could argue putting all the eggs in that basket is a bad thing if they faulter, ask the Dogs.  

[Blarg]

28 minutes ago, floplag said:

Blame the starters all you want but they are what they are and they arent changing.  I would literally be shocked if we see a complete game this season.
We knew what they were, wee knew this was what we had, and we left the pen in the hands of cast offs once again.  
Last season it was the difference between playing in the post and watching it as the pen blew at least 5-6... lets pray history doesnt repeat.  

Then the situation the bullpen is in isn't changing because you are not going to find 9 door slammers to cover 40% of innings pitched during a game, every game rotating in and out of the minor leagues. The failure rate is built in. 

Edited May 6, 2018 by Blarg

[Pablo]

3 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

They are running Johnson on fumes though, too many innings already.

The starters are pitching deeper into games now.   Eventually, Middleton returns next week, Wood shortly after.  

They do need an Herrera though.

Would love to pry Herrera from KC. What would that take?

[floplag]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

Then the situation the bullpen is in isn't changing because you are not going to find 9 door slammers to cover 40% of innings pitched during a game, every game rotating in and out of the minor leagues. The failure rate is built in. 

You act like we have a losing record instead of being 7 games above 500.  
The starters have tanked a few early, the pen has lost a few late, noone is blameless, and noone should be surprised that these starters are what they are.
The point is that the starters are who they are and were not replacing all or even the bulk of them.  Its far more logical and easier to fix the pen which have been cast offs and misfits from the get go for the most part.

[ten ocho recon scout]

On Angels weekly theyre showing a few of the relievers going to CHOC to cheer up the sick kids. Like havent those kids been through enough?

[Warfarin]

Any chance we can convert Shoemaker into a reliever once he returns?  Not sure how his stuff would play up in the pen, but maybe he could be a superior reliever than he is a starter, and perhaps this would help keep him healthier, too.

[AngelsLakersFan]

6 hours ago, Blarg said:

Currently the Angels pitching staff is getting murdered in the 2nd, 8th and 9th innings. 

The starters have produced 162.3 innings of work, the bullpen 140. That is an unsustainable ratio where the starters are pitching less than 1 more inning than the bullpen. 

Want to see a number that will blow your mind? The 2002 Angels starters threw 1,007.2 innings, the bullpen 444.2. It was a lot easier to manage for a W  when you weren't burning up your three best arm every game. 

Is the pitching that much worse or are the analytics saying pull your starter before he hits the third run through the batting order wrong? Wrong simply because you are putting inferior pitchers into the game more often. More often means more exposure and more work for guys that never were capable of these inning loads over multiple games. 

I couldn't tell you but from my ass on the couch perspective pulling starters because they gave up two runs over 5 innings is an unreasonable expectation of perfection. And when you keep doing it game after game you are creating 5 inning pitchers and unstable bullpens since you have to do the triple A shuffle twice a week just to have a "fresh" arm but not necessarily a good one. Parades is just one example. 

 

I think its a lot of factors. A primary one is having the cold hard facts about starters the third time through versus relievers the first time. It's about trying to balance the smart move for tonights game versus the long run need to keep certain players fresh.

[AngelsLakersFan]

14 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Any chance we can convert Shoemaker into a reliever once he returns?  Not sure how his stuff would play up in the pen, but maybe he could be a superior reliever than he is a starter, and perhaps this would help keep him healthier, too.

How about make him into a tandem starter. Go through a lineup once every three or four days. I mean its not like we have any starters going 7+ so we could probably keep him on a pretty reasonable routine.

[Blarg]

4 hours ago, floplag said:

You act like we have a losing record instead of being 7 games above 500.  

People were very dry on the topside of the Titanic an hour after hitting an iceberg. That, however, became unsustainable.

[floplag]

52 minutes ago, Blarg said:

People were very dry on the topside of the Titanic an hour after hitting an iceberg. That, however, became unsustainable.

God you must be fun at parties.    
Not much to say about that i guess... have fun with your doom and gloom.

[ten ocho recon scout]

10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Also, let's be realistic.  Last year was an aberration.  It was basically the same collection of similar talent that over performed.  

It's disappointing in that it was fairly predictable. 

 

This was my take all winter. I kind of cringed whenever someone mentioned eppler working magic in the bullpen. Whereas im not at all smart enough to gauge guys on numbers (or follow close enough), it was pretty apparent we got really lucky last year. Same as we got lucky on everything else the last few years.

It was a mistake to trust guys who werent reliable "names" to think it was as simple as "we were smarter than everyone else when they were available".

My main concern in ignoring the pen over the winter was the SP. Were still waiting to see if guys like skaggs and heaney and richards are "back". So far so good...but the innings limit on them is putting even more pressure on a pen that was already suspect.

The good news is there looks to be some pretty bad teams out there this year...so hopefully it wont be too hard to bring in a reliable arm or two.

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

On Angels weekly theyre showing a few of the relievers going to CHOC to cheer up the sick kids. Like havent those kids been through enough?

That nun is bedwalk trying to cheer up wome poor kid.

[Warfarin]

8 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

This was my take all winter. I kind of cringed whenever someone mentioned eppler working magic in the bullpen. Whereas im not at all smart enough to gauge guys on numbers (or follow close enough), it was pretty apparent we got really lucky last year. Same as we got lucky on everything else the last few years.

It was a mistake to trust guys who werent reliable "names" to think it was as simple as "we were smarter than everyone else when they were available".

My main concern in ignoring the pen over the winter was the SP. Were still waiting to see if guys like skaggs and heaney and richards are "back". So far so good...but the innings limit on them is putting even more pressure on a pen that was already suspect.

The good news is there looks to be some pretty bad teams out there this year...so hopefully it wont be too hard to bring in a reliable arm or two.

I do think, on the bright side, that we certainly have some good arms in the pen.  Middleton, Anderson, Alvarez are very solid, and I trust them (for the most part) in the later innings.  Ramirez and Johnson look like good middle relievers who can come in and navigate the 6th/7th.  Beyond those 5 though, I don't really trust anyone else.

Ideally, I'd like to find another lefty arm to fill out the pen.  If we can have 6 guys we can rely on, then it should be solid enough where it won't be a weakness.  

[TroutField]

What you guys are failing to realize is even Kershaw/Sale/Kluber etc will only go 5-6 innings in a playoff game. Bullpens dominate in the postseason, every single base runner is a potential rally so managers have a very quick hook. Richards/Skaggs/Ohtani/Heaney/Tropeano are able to pitch like aces for 5-7 innings. I feel these guys could match up in October. When these guys are on they all have Top of the rotation potential.

 

We are going to have to bite the bullet and shell out some prospect currency for a better bullpen. 

[101halo]

2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

I do think, on the bright side, that we certainly have some good arms in the pen.  Middleton, Anderson, Alvarez are very solid, and I trust them (for the most part) in the later innings.  Ramirez and Johnson look like good middle relievers who can come in and navigate the 6th/7th.  Beyond those 5 though, I don't really trust anyone else.

Ideally, I'd like to find another lefty arm to fill out the pen.  If we can have 6 guys we can rely on, then it should be solid enough where it won't be a weakness.  

I want Eppler to identify that guy who is going to post an unsustainably good LOB% for the remainder of 2018 and steal him from a team. Simple. 

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

That nun is bedwalk trying to cheer up wome poor kid.

Perfect gloss for Badrock after today

[Warfarin]

9 hours ago, TroutField said:

What you guys are failing to realize is even Kershaw/Sale/Kluber etc will only go 5-6 innings in a playoff game. Bullpens dominate in the postseason, every single base runner is a potential rally so managers have a very quick hook. Richards/Skaggs/Ohtani/Heaney/Tropeano are able to pitch like aces for 5-7 innings. I feel these guys could match up in October. When these guys are on they all have Top of the rotation potential.

 

We are going to have to bite the bullet and shell out some prospect currency for a better bullpen. 

You make a great point about playoff pitching.  There's a theory about how pitches in "high stress" situations require more energy/effort than "low stress" situations, which is why you see playoff pitchers get drained more quickly and not pitch as deep as they do in the regular year, as I'm sure each and every inning feels pressure packed (unless, of course, you are coasting in a 10-0 game).  We definitely need a bullpen to get us through those games, one that is better than what we currently have.

I don't think the right strategy though is to trade our prospects for them, unless we are talking a legitimate, shutdown closer, and I don't know if one of those will truly be available come the trading deadline.  If you look at some of the elite bullpens, like the Dodgers in the last few years, they really found a lot of those guys on the waiver wire and/or developed their talent specifically for certain situations.  Relievers are extremely volatile - great for some stretches, but then they lose the feel of their best pitch, and since they are essentially two pitch pitchers, they're toast. That's why a lot of teams tend to just try to find/sign a lot of various relievers to minor league deals and hope a few of them pan out - you just never know.

The two guys who I would consider trading for would be Felipe Rivero (who I guess is now named Felipe Vazquez??) and Brad Hand with the Padres.  Young, elite, left-handed closers who would fit perfectly on our squad.  If you acquire one of them, then you have:  Hand/Vazquez, Middleton, Anderson, Alvarez, Johnson, Ramirez as the top 6, then one of Bedrosian/Parker as the last guy in the pen.  I'd be very comfortable with having Hand/Vazquez occupy the 9th, some combination of Middleton/Anderson/Alvarez navigate the 7th/8th innings (depending on matchups), and Ramirez/Johnson getting us through the 6th (and maybe 5th if our starter can't complete 5).