Ohtani's first 1 fWAR (and readjusting expectations?)

[Angelsjunky]

After today's game, he's at 0.6 for pitching, 0.4 for hitting. That 1.0 (roughly speaking) has him tied for second in the majors with Matt Chapman, behind Didi Gregorious.

EDIT: Rather than start a separate thread, I thought I'd say something about readjusting expectations, after 10 games of play.

Obviously this is a great start for Shohei. I think it is safe to say that he's met, even exceeded, any expectations - especially with the bat.

Are we ready to readjust expectations? What do you expect to see for the rest of the year?

I am more optimistic about his pitching. From what I saw today, I just don't see how he'll have a 3.00+ ERA...I see something below 3.00, maybe 2.50ish. 

As for his hitting, while I am really happy with what I've seen so far, I do think pitchers will start figuring him out. But he's clearly a primetime hitter. Maybe .280/.330/.500 with 20ish HR?

[tdawg87]

[Jason]

TDawg has hard penis on his mind today. 

[Warfarin]

30 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

After today's game, he's at 0.6 for pitching, 0.4 for hitting. That 1.0 (roughly speaking) has him tied for second in the majors with Matt Chapman, behind Didi Gregorious.

EDIT: Rather than start a separate thread, I thought I'd say something about readjusting expectations, after 10 games of play.

Obviously this is a great start for Shohei. I think it is safe to say that he's met, even exceeded, any expectations - especially with the bat.

Are we ready to readjust expectations? What do you expect to see for the rest of the year?

I am more optimistic about his pitching. From what I saw today, I just don't see how he'll have a 3.00+ ERA...I see something below 3.00, maybe 2.50ish. 

As for his hitting, while I am really happy with what I've seen so far, I do think pitchers will start figuring him out. But he's clearly a primetime hitter. Maybe .280/.330/.500 with 20ish HR?

How do you get an updated fWAR within the same day?  I thought Fangraphs updated it late that night / early morning.

[101halo]

Um, it's just math. Let me do it for you:

1 fWAR/(10 games played / 162 games total) = 16.2 fWAR projection. 

Though I think he might be off to a slow start, thinking 18-19 is more likely. 

[IheartLA]

no he means how did you get Ohtani's fWar including his start from today,

on their official website it lags by a day so Ohtani's start from today will be in tomorrow's number, the current WAR number on their website is the number before today's game

[Troll Daddy]

I don’t pretend to understand WAR ... is it possible that Ohtani accumulates more than Trout .

[101halo]

2 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

I don’t pretend to understand WAR ... is it possible that Ohtani accumulates more than Trout .

If he does, we're either really stoked, or really bummed (Ohtani and Trout both have amazing years vs Ohtani great and Trout injured or has an off year). 

Ohtani will be #2 in baseball in fWAR after today. Behind Matt Chapman, go figure. 

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, 101halo said:

If he does, we're either really stoked, or really bummed (Ohtani and Trout both have amazing years vs Ohtani great and Trout injured or has an off year). 

Ohtani will be #2 in baseball in fWAR after today. Behind Matt Chapman, go figure. 

So circling back to my other comment - how do you know what the fWAR is on the same day?  I thought fWAR updates late night / early AM.  He appears to still be listed as 0.1 on Fangraphs on the pitching side (and 0.4 on the hitting side).

[101halo]

1 minute ago, Warfarin said:

So circling back to my other comment - how do you know what the fWAR is on the same day?  I thought fWAR updates late night / early AM.  He appears to still be listed as 0.1 on Fangraphs on the pitching side (and 0.4 on the hitting side).

I'm trusting whomever said he'll be at 1.0. FG has a live scoreboard that's pretty cool, but it doesn't have WAR, so I assume he's calcing it himself. Though after 0-3 with a K, wonder if Ohtani actually passes Chapman for the lead. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

How do you get an updated fWAR within the same day?  I thought Fangraphs updated it late that night / early morning.

On the 2018 Pitching or Hitting leaders, go to the Splits drop-down menu and select "Live Stats - Full Season." Nifty.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=33&season1=2018&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=

[Angel Oracle]

Still be patient with him, only Sunday pitching and hitting 8th 3-4 games a week.

See where he is by June 1, and then adjust accordingly.

[101halo]

8 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

On the 2018 Pitching or Hitting leaders, go to the Splits drop-down menu and select "Live Stats - Full Season." Nifty.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=33&season1=2018&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=

I've been an avid FG reader for a long time and never found that. Thanks! 

[Taylor]

16 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

On the 2018 Pitching or Hitting leaders, go to the Splits drop-down menu and select "Live Stats - Full Season." Nifty.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=33&season1=2018&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=

How the F does Jordan Zimmerman have a 0.6 WAR (tied for 3rd in the AL) with a 8.71 ERA?

[Warfarin]

22 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

On the 2018 Pitching or Hitting leaders, go to the Splits drop-down menu and select "Live Stats - Full Season." Nifty.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=33&season1=2018&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=

Right on man!  Awesome, learned something new.  Thanks for this.

[happybat4]

7 minutes ago, Taylor said:

How the F does Jordan Zimmerman have a 0.6 WAR (tied for 3rd in the AL) with a 8.71 ERA?

Yea this makes no sense. It must be the 11 strikeouts and no home runs allowed.

[Warfarin]

11 minutes ago, Taylor said:

How the F does Jordan Zimmerman have a 0.6 WAR (tied for 3rd in the AL) with a 8.71 ERA?

He’s getting BABIP’d to death at .455.  If you assume a normal BABIP, that ERA comes crashing down.

[Lou]

13 minutes ago, Taylor said:

How the F does Jordan Zimmerman have a 0.6 WAR (tied for 3rd in the AL) with a 8.71 ERA?

Seriously? 

It's obviously because of his incredible 1.65 whip.

Dummy 

[Lou]

If Zimmerman's WAR is 0.6, Ohtani's is 14.11 

[Warfarin]

8 minutes ago, Lou said:

If Zimmerman's WAR is 0.6, Ohtani's is 14.11 

For what it's worth, per fWAR currently, both Valbuena and Marte are ranked higher than Trout.  All sorts of interesting random anomalies in the beginning of the season.

[Troll Daddy]

WAR: to be used for entrainment value only

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

How the F does Jordan Zimmerman have a 0.6 WAR (tied for 3rd in the AL) with a 8.71 ERA?

That's pretty funny. Look at his FIP: 1.52. Good example of how small sample sizes mean very little. But I think the Fangraphs explanation would be that he got very unlucky (thus the .455 BABIP, as someone pointed out).

I'm not a huge fan of WAR for pitchers, perhaps especially Fangraphs version, which is kind of along the lines of "What they should have done, based upon their peripherals." It tends to penalize pitchers who are smart but don't have incredible stuff - like Jered Weaver at his best, or someone like Tom Glavine.

[101halo]

58 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

That's pretty funny. Look at his FIP: 1.52. Good example of how small sample sizes mean very little. But I think the Fangraphs explanation would be that he got very unlucky (thus the .455 BABIP, as someone pointed out).

I'm not a huge fan of WAR for pitchers, perhaps especially Fangraphs version, which is kind of along the lines of "What they should have done, based upon their peripherals." It tends to penalize pitchers who are smart but don't have incredible stuff - like Jered Weaver at his best, or someone like Tom Glavine.

As much as I do believe in progression of newer stats, agree on pitcher WAR. FIP starts by saying "ignore all non batted balls, pitchers can't control where the ball is hit or what the fielders behind him do." I do think that's a valid, interesting stat, but to ignore batted balls in play entirely when evaluating a pitcher? Isolated to this game, Ohtani's FIP through 6 was negative. Huh? How could that ever be a one size fits all, end all be all stat that says which pitchers are better than others?  I think WAR is pretty damn good for position players, even if imperfect, but lots of work to be done for those on the mound.

[Docwaukee]

WAR should start using xwOBA.  I am sure the team's proprietary stats use it.  

[Ohtaniland]

4 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

I don’t pretend to understand WAR ... is it possible that Ohtani accumulates more than Trout .