OK, Apologists, let's hear it

[mtangelsfan]

from Afghanistan.

[summit21]

The. Offense. Is. Not. The. Main. Problem.

The Astros have scored as many runs as we have, I beg to differ. 

[Homebrewer]

When a team sucks in every aspect, it is usually the manager and coaching staff that go bye-bye..

Arte has tied his own hands behind his back, with a bad contract...and THAT can't be blamed anywhere else.

That is Arte and Arte alone.

[Inside Pitch]

I didn't think there was a chance of this even a couple of weeks ago, but I think there's a chance that not only will Scioscia get fired this year, but Dipoto as well.

 

As this unfolds and players like Blanton fail, it becomes more and more likely that MS stays and JD goes.  If you read out of town papers, most feel MS is the guy being forced to play this hand.

 

Seriously, the outside opinion is JP screwed the pooch, and as Torrii, Santana, Wells, etc etc all continue to perform well vs their replacements, the theory is growing.

[Inside Pitch]

Not really the criteria I would use to evaluate a pitcher.  Some get more run support than others.  Also, oddly, he has pitched against a lot of very good pitchers from other teams for some reason (schedule, etc). 

 

 

There is no statistical measure that could be used to defend Blanton.  His k/9 is down, His BB/9 and HR/9 are up.  His FIP is a lot better than his ERA but at 4.73 it's still awful.

[Inside Pitch]

Dipoto built a team that looked really good on paper. Every relevant projection system loved this team, too.

 

How is it his fault that this team is playing so poorly? Could anyone have predicted this team would play so poorly? Could you?

 

Dipoto got the pieces, it's up to the coaches and manager to get the most (or at least what was EXPECTED) from his players. That hasn't happened. At least Scioscia and Butcher have to go. 

 

It was a team based heavily on theoretical performance.   It was a team with some significant potential rewards but it came with some significant risk..  The lack of depth meant there wasn't a lot of room for error, and in Hamilton, there was plenty to be suspect of, even more when you consider the price tag vs the risks if bringing back Torii..  This team is certainly capable of playing better, but what we have seen is that the ramifications of having almost zero margin for error.   Some of that falls on JDs shoulders.  

 

His long term vision is better than what his short term fix appears to be.

[jshep]

As this unfolds and players like Blanton fail, it becomes more and more likely that MS stays and JD goes.  If you read out of town papers, most feel MS is the guy being forced to play this hand.

 

Seriously, the outside opinion is JP screwed the pooch, and as Torrii, Santana, Wells, etc etc all continue to perform well vs their replacements, the theory is growing.

 

I'm certainly not going to give him a free pass for everything, but that would be a mistake IMO.

 

And is there really someone out there that's faulting him for trading Wells because of what he's done in NY? That's kind of ridiculous.

[Lifetime]

Pitching (SP) should have been the focus of the majority of the off season spending - even if that means overpaying for Grienke. I'm not a fan of huge contracts for pitchers but I'd rather spend money in that area where the team lacks strength than spending it on more offense. Bullpen strength should have been the next priority and while we brought in some arms, we really didn't improve the bullpen. I was fine with getting Hamilton expecting he could put up his usual numbers which so far has been an abysmal disappointment but still, pitching was the preferred route this last winter. And I for one don't think Arte forced Dipoto to sign Hamilton (or Pujols for that matter). I think Dipoto had Hamilton on his radar already and intended to pursue him if Grienke didn't work out which IMO is a poor back-up plan. I would have been fine with Torii back even if he only gave us one good year out of the two he was signed for. He brought more to this team than what he did on the field. He was the consummate team player who brought talent, energy and leadership and never came off as a primadonna  despite his excellent career. No way I would have kept Wells after what he had delivered in an Angels uniform. And I was fine with letting Santana go too who has gifted talent but doesn't have the head to go with it and was one of the most frustrating players since Ramon Ortiz. But if you're going to lose one of you're starting pitchers, and there's a good chance you're not going to sign the big free agent pitcher (Grienke), the main focus for a back-up plan has to be quality starting pitching. If your plan is to fill the pitching with mediocre talent and try to hit your way to the playoffs, I have to question your thought process as a GM.

[nate]

For the money spent on Hamilton and Blanton they could have kept Haren and signed Torii to a one year contract.  Still would have been able to trade Morales for Vargas and Walden for Hanson or try to get a reliever and put Richards in the rotation.  Pitching would have been a bit more weak but we wouldn't have the huge money of Hamilton on the books and the pinata that Blanton is.

 

Torii was such a great #2 hitter for us the second half he would have been great to have.  I thought all offseason that not having a #2 hitter would be a major issue and it seems to have been true.

[jshep]

I'll agree with quite a bit of that, LT. I do think Arte was heavily behind at least the Pujols signing though. Hamilton, maybe, maybe not.

 

I was similarly in favor of spending on starting pitching this offseason. I would have rather spent big on Greinke than on Hamilton(he's a better player IMO and actually filled the hole on the roster), but I didn't have a huge problem passing on him either.

But Anibal Sanchez, Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson were all out there as well. I was even in possibly bringing Haren back if the price was right. Granted, Jackson and Haren are off to rough starts as well. 

 

I was fine letting Torii go, his performance looked totally unsustainable and spending money that should have been earmarked for pitching to bring him back for 2 years instead of going with a Trout, Bourjos, Trumbo, Morales DH setup didn't seem ideal to me. Passing on Torii for Hamilton certainly isn't looking great right now though.

 

Really, even if they decided they NEEDED a power hitting outfielder at that point, Swisher is pretty solid as well and ended up signing much cheaper than Hamilton. Swisher + Anibal Sanchez ended up getting roughly what Hamilton and Blanton got, although there is a longer commitment to Sanchez there(which makes sense since Sanchez is much better). Not that there is what I necessarily would have preferred, but there was a middle ground between spending almost all the money on pitching and almost all the money on offense to be found.

 

As for the bullpen, I think Dipoto had the right idea(avoiding the big commitments to relievers that continually bite teams down the road), but executed less than ideally. There were at least a few good arms to add to the pen that could have been had for cheap 1 year deals.

[Angels]

It was a team based heavily on theoretical performance.   It was a team with some significant potential rewards but it came with some significant risk..  The lack of depth meant there wasn't a lot of room for error, and in Hamilton, there was plenty to be suspect of, even more when you consider the price tag vs the risks if bringing back Torii..  This team is certainly capable of playing better, but what we have seen is that the ramifications of having almost zero margin for error.   Some of that falls on JDs shoulders.  

 

His long term vision is better than what his short term fix appears to be.

 

What team isn't based on theoretical performance? Nothing is absolute. Nothing is set in stone. Nobody can enter a season and for sure say that everything will go as expected or as planned. The Angels aren't alone here. Just because a team with the same cast of characters did good or bad last year doesn't mean that team will do good or bad this year. Just because a player did good or bad last year doesn't mean that player will do good or bad this year. I'm sure Dipoto looked at every potential risk involved here.

 

The truth is, this team did look good on paper. The truth is, projection systems (like ZiPS and PECOTA, for example) had the Angels winning their division. Even the most pessimistic outlooks couldn't have predicted this. With 25% of the season nearly over, the Angels have the third-worst record in ALL of baseball, just ahead of the Marlins and Astros. That's nothing something you could've predicted or expected.

 

In regards to the depth...Dipoto inherited an abysmal farm system. That is not something he can just magically fix overnight. That's going to take a lot of patience and time to go along with good scouting, drafting and willingness to spend money. Expecting some quick fix simply isn't realistic. And it's not like he has been just sitting around doing nothing. He has been looking for depth/help (signing AAAA'ers), but let's be realistic..in order to acquire impact, serviceable major league talent, you have to give up talent. The Angels have almost no farm system. They would have to trade some pieces from their roster (desirable pieces), which would be addition by subtraction and perhaps wouldn't make the Angels any better off than they are now.

 

For this year, their best bet is to just ride things out and hope for the best. What else can realistically be done? The Angels are stuck with what they have, and that's the truth. Unless the Angels plan to blow it up (can't happen since we're stuck with a bunch of these contracts...and a bunch of them have NTC's), nothing can be done.

 

I see what Dipoto's strategy was when he constructed the pitching staff. He was hoping the pitching staff would be tailor-made for Angel Stadium. And with the defense (particularly the OF), things would look good. It didn't seem like a bad strategy. And let's be honest, some of these guys are performing a lot worse than how they normally perform or how they were expected to perform. Blanton (for example) may not be a good pitcher, but he isn't THIS bad, either. 

[Lifetime]

I'll agree with quite a bit of that, LT. I do think Arte was heavily behind at least the Pujols signing though. Hamilton, maybe, maybe not.

 

I was similarly in favor of spending on starting pitching this offseason. I would have rather spent big on Greinke than on Hamilton(he's a better player IMO and actually filled the hole on the roster), but I didn't have a huge problem passing on him either.

But Anibal Sanchez, Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson were all out there as well. I was even in possibly bringing Haren back if the price was right. Granted, Jackson and Haren are off to rough starts as well. 

 

I was fine letting Torii go, his performance looked totally unsustainable and spending money that should have been earmarked for pitching to bring him back for 2 years instead of going with a Trout, Bourjos, Trumbo, Morales DH setup didn't seem ideal to me. Passing on Torii for Hamilton certainly isn't looking great right now though.

 

Really, even if they decided they NEEDED a power hitting outfielder at that point, Swisher is pretty solid as well and ended up signing much cheaper than Hamilton. Swisher + Anibal Sanchez ended up getting roughly what Hamilton and Blanton got, although there is a longer commitment to Sanchez there(which makes sense since Sanchez is much better). Not that there is what I necessarily would have preferred, but there was a middle ground between spending almost all the money on pitching and almost all the money on offense to be found.

 

As for the bullpen, I think Dipoto had the right idea(avoiding the big commitments to relievers that continually bite teams down the road), but executed less than ideally. There were at least a few good arms to add to the pen that could have been had for cheap 1 year deals.

Well I think Arte was heavily behind the Pujols signing too however I don't think he forced Dipoto's hand in the matter. I don't think Dipoto was in any way unwilling or hesitant to make that deal if Arte was willing to pony up the money - especially knowing the behind the scenes work that was being done with Fox that would mean a large increase in revenue for the team. That is a motivation for an owner for sure, but it is also a motivation for the GM. 

[Angel Oracle]

So the question is asked: why are too many players flopping for too many weeks?

[Lifetime]

So many players? You mean Pujols and Hamilton, and who else Ianetta?

[rageous]

Pitching (SP) should have been the focus of the majority of the off season spending - even if that means overpaying for Grienke. I'm not a fan of huge contracts for pitchers but I'd rather spend money in that area where the team lacks strength than spending it on more offense. Bullpen strength should have been the next priority and while we brought in some arms, we really didn't improve the bullpen. I was fine with getting Hamilton expecting he could put up his usual numbers which so far has been an abysmal disappointment but still, pitching was the preferred route this last winter. And I for one don't think Arte forced Dipoto to sign Hamilton (or Pujols for that matter). I think Dipoto had Hamilton on his radar already and intended to pursue him if Grienke didn't work out which IMO is a poor back-up plan. I would have been fine with Torii back even if he only gave us one good year out of the two he was signed for. He brought more to this team than what he did on the field. He was the consummate team player who brought talent, energy and leadership and never came off as a primadonna  despite his excellent career. No way I would have kept Wells after what he had delivered in an Angels uniform. And I was fine with letting Santana go too who has gifted talent but doesn't have the head to go with it and was one of the most frustrating players since Ramon Ortiz. But if you're going to lose one of you're starting pitchers, and there's a good chance you're not going to sign the big free agent pitcher (Grienke), the main focus for a back-up plan has to be quality starting pitching. If your plan is to fill the pitching with mediocre talent and try to hit your way to the playoffs, I have to question your thought process as a GM.

Overpaying for Greinke + signing Anibal would have solved most of our problems.

It means no Hamilton and no Blanton.

[robblin17]

Overpaying for Greinke + signing Anibal would have solved most of our problems.

It means no Hamilton and no Blanton.

 

I think you are right. I definitely feel the offense presses knowing that they have to put up a shit ton of runs just to be competitive and, as a result, is less than what their production norms should be. 

 

You would basically have the exact same team in the field except no Hamilton (which means we aren't missing much) and a stacked rotation. 

[xboom28x]

Pitching (SP) should have been the focus of the majority of the off season spending - even if that means overpaying for Grienke. I'm not a fan of huge contracts for pitchers but I'd rather spend money in that area where the team lacks strength than spending it on more offense. Bullpen strength should have been the next priority and while we brought in some arms, we really didn't improve the bullpen. I was fine with getting Hamilton expecting he could put up his usual numbers which so far has been an abysmal disappointment but still, pitching was the preferred route this last winter. And I for one don't think Arte forced Dipoto to sign Hamilton (or Pujols for that matter). I think Dipoto had Hamilton on his radar already and intended to pursue him if Grienke didn't work out which IMO is a poor back-up plan. I would have been fine with Torii back even if he only gave us one good year out of the two he was signed for. He brought more to this team than what he did on the field. He was the consummate team player who brought talent, energy and leadership and never came off as a primadonna  despite his excellent career. No way I would have kept Wells after what he had delivered in an Angels uniform. And I was fine with letting Santana go too who has gifted talent but doesn't have the head to go with it and was one of the most frustrating players since Ramon Ortiz. But if you're going to lose one of you're starting pitchers, and there's a good chance you're not going to sign the big free agent pitcher (Grienke), the main focus for a back-up plan has to be quality starting pitching. If your plan is to fill the pitching with mediocre talent and try to hit your way to the playoffs, I have to question your thought process as a GM.

 

Nice strawman!

[AZMike]

I think you are right. I definitely feel the offense presses knowing that they have to put up a shit ton of runs just to be competitive and, as a result, is less than what their production norms should be. 

 

You would basically have the exact same team in the field except no Hamilton (which means we aren't missing much) and a stacked rotation. 

 

Yep. I think this is one of the reasons why we've often seen the phenomenon of Jered Weaver getting 9 runs of support, and a weaker Santana getting 0 runs of support. In the former case the team knows the ace is on the mound and is more relaxed therefore plays to potential.

 

In the Santana case, guys are trying for the 3 run bomb instead of being conservative to try to get a single etc. knowing they might already (or might soon) need to dig out of a hole. 

[Lifetime]

Nice strawman!

please don't respond to my posts ever again. Thanks!

[Erstad Grit]

Pitching (SP) should have been the focus of the majority of the off season spending - even if that means overpaying for Grienke. I'm not a fan of huge contracts for pitchers but I'd rather spend money in that area where the team lacks strength than spending it on more offense. Bullpen strength should have been the next priority and while we brought in some arms, we really didn't improve the bullpen. I was fine with getting Hamilton expecting he could put up his usual numbers which so far has been an abysmal disappointment but still, pitching was the preferred route this last winter. And I for one don't think Arte forced Dipoto to sign Hamilton (or Pujols for that matter). I think Dipoto had Hamilton on his radar already and intended to pursue him if Grienke didn't work out which IMO is a poor back-up plan. I would have been fine with Torii back even if he only gave us one good year out of the two he was signed for. He brought more to this team than what he did on the field. He was the consummate team player who brought talent, energy and leadership and never came off as a primadonna  despite his excellent career. No way I would have kept Wells after what he had delivered in an Angels uniform. And I was fine with letting Santana go too who has gifted talent but doesn't have the head to go with it and was one of the most frustrating players since Ramon Ortiz. But if you're going to lose one of you're starting pitchers, and there's a good chance you're not going to sign the big free agent pitcher (Grienke), the main focus for a back-up plan has to be quality starting pitching. If your plan is to fill the pitching with mediocre talent and try to hit your way to the playoffs, I have to question your thought process as a GM.

 

 

This is a great summary and analysis.  I would argue if Greinke was unavailable / too expensive Santana would have been a great 1 year option along with Haren. Basically reset last year and add some bullpen. Dipoto put his name on this team and specifically the rotation. He has to wear the blame. 

[Inside Pitch]

I'm certainly not going to give him a free pass for everything, but that would be a mistake IMO.

 

And is there really someone out there that's faulting him for trading Wells because of what he's done in NY? That's kind of ridiculous.

 

Wells gets thrown in along with the other guys but, I'm pretty sure he's the one guy nobody faults Dipoto for moving.

[Inside Pitch]

What team isn't based on theoretical performance? Nothing is absolute. Nothing is set in stone. Nobody can enter a season and for sure say that everything will go as expected or as planned. The Angels aren't alone here. Just because a team with the same cast of characters did good or bad last year doesn't mean that team will do good or bad this year. Just because a player did good or bad last year doesn't mean that player will do good or bad this year. I'm sure Dipoto looked at every potential risk involved here.

 

 

Take a deep breath -- I was speaking specifically to his pursuing guys with a track record of putting up strong FIP in particular...  FIP is purely theoretical in its nature and it's entire premise is built upon if everything else being even.   To go completely in one direction was a massive risk, I didn't fault him when he did it, but I pointed out it was a very saber-slanted approach and I was very curious to see how it would play out.   In Blanton's case, it's been horrendous.  Hanson and Vargas haven't been bad, but only Hanson has managed even a league average ERA among the SPs.

 

And you can argue at his having looked at the risks -- but, the fact that there were few fall back options in the system it makes it very clear he ignored much of the risk.  Guys like Barry Enright and Michael Roth have started games.   

[bloodbrother]

Segura with HR #7. Man that Greinke deal is looking really bad now

[jshep]

Segura with HR #7. Man that Greinke deal is looking really bad now

Ya, he's not going to keep this level of performance up, but he's already blown away the value the Angels got out of Greinke in his first 80 major league games.

[Inside Pitch]

 

In regards to the depth...Dipoto inherited an abysmal farm system. That is not something he can just magically fix overnight. That's going to take a lot of patience and time to go along with good scouting, drafting and willingness to spend money. Expecting some quick fix simply isn't realistic. And it's not like he has been just sitting around doing nothing. He has been looking for depth/help (signing AAAA'ers), but let's be realistic..in order to acquire impact, serviceable major league talent, you have to give up talent. The Angels have almost no farm system. They would have to trade some pieces from their roster (desirable pieces), which would be addition by subtraction and perhaps wouldn't make the Angels any better off than they are now.

 

This is where I do think he deserves blame.  People keep saying it's not his fault the system is awful -- fine.  But he's not really done much to try to compensate for that situation.  We needed three SPs for the MLB rotation going into this year..  he added three, and Blanton was arguably an overpay.  Who was signed as insurance? No MLB ready arms at AAA and this team signed NOBODY as a fall back option -- instead it lost Brad Mills to the Rangers..  lol.   What we didn't need was a 125 million dollar RFer and while everyone and their brother seems content to pin that on Arte, I still believe a GM has to have the balls to say hey -- my plan is different.  Everyone seems all gung ho that he might put Scioscia in his place but apparently nobody seems to care he caves when Arte walks into the room.  That is worrisome to me.  Stoneman inherited an even uglier farm system and a significantly less talented roster and a meddlesome team VP in Tony Tavares, the big difference is he knew how to stand his ground.

 

IMO, Dipoto should have been significantly more aggressive on the international market before the rules changed, we weren't..  Scott Servais is supposed to be this awesome advance scout and yet there haven't really been any Chone Figgins for Kimera Bartee or David Eckstein waiver wire pick ups.   There have been ZERO discard pile additions along the lines of Lou Pote, Brendan Donnelley, Ben Weber, or Al Levine.   Kevin Slowey was signed by the Marlins for less than a mil.  His career WHIP, H/9 BB/9 HR/9 and K/9 aren't that far removed from what Blanton's numbers in fact, most of those rates are better.  Carlos Villanueva was signed for 5 Mil -- look at his stats last year and what he has done for the Cubs to date.  Kevin Correia is another guy that's doing pretty well who was signed for cheap. 

 

Yes the fam system is ugly, but it's not like there aren't replacement level talents that could have been signed on the cheap.  We just didn't really sign enough of them.  Sorry but when you have as much front line talent as the Angels were thought to have, you don't add more to the top and ignore the depth. 

FWIW, I do believe Dipoto was under pressure to win now, my hope is that ownership has figured out that it's okay to take a step back in order to compete over the long haul.  I think getting rid of Dipoto would be a mistake, but to say he's not the architect of this debacle is IMO, going easy on him.