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Trout WAR update


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Because I know everyone is vitally concerned with Trout's WAR, here's an update. He keeps on creeping up the rankings - is now (as of 5/13) 7th in the majors with a 1.9 fWAR, ahead of Justin Upton (1.8) and Bryce Harper (1.6).

 

Actually, the fWAR rankings are quite interesting this year - with lots of surprise names and young players. Carlos Gomez is still #1 with 2.7, and the top 10 includes players like Manny Machado, Jean Segura, Starling Marte, and Carlos Santana.

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They had an interview with Roenicke about him on MLB radio stating that Carlos went to him before this year and stated that he was going to start taking a different approach at the plate.  Teams had been intent on him putting the ball in play and trying to leg things out because of his great speed.  He mentioned now that he's essentially 'swinging as hard as he can' when he sees something he likes instead of worrying about trying to put the ball in play. 

 

Seems to be working. 

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Bottom 5 in WAR are interesting:

 

Jeff Keppinger -1.4

Adam Dunn -1.1

Victor Martinez -1.0

Maicer Izturis -1.0

Matt Kemp -0.9

 

We really should be doing better against the Sox, and we seemed to have made the right decision to let Maicer go.

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Trout's rWAR is quite a bit lower that Fangraphs number. The offensive numbers they use are pretty much the exact same but Baseball Reference uses DRS as it's defensive component while Fangraphs uses UZR. UZR credits Trout's defense as saving 3.6 runs so far this season while DRS says his defense has cost 4 runs. Interestingly (or not, since it happens to players every season) last year DRS credited Trout as saving twice as many runs as UZR. So that sort of speaks to the fact that defensive stats are very much in their infancy and should be taken with a grain of salt. They possible should be completely ignored. If using different defensive stats can change a player's WAR by a whole win only 1.5 months into the season it shows that people can definitely be looking at one site's WAR and getting an impression of a player that they wouldn't have by looking at another site.

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Trout's rWAR is quite a bit lower that Fangraphs number. The offensive numbers they use are pretty much the exact same but Baseball Reference uses DRS as it's defensive component while Fangraphs uses UZR. UZR credits Trout's defense as saving 3.6 runs so far this season while DRS says his defense has cost 4 runs. Interestingly (or not, since it happens to players every season) last year DRS credited Trout as saving twice as many runs as UZR. So that sort of speaks to the fact that defensive stats are very much in their infancy and should be taken with a grain of salt. They possible should be completely ignored. If using different defensive stats can change a player's WAR by a whole win only 1.5 months into the season it shows that people can definitely be looking at one site's WAR and getting an impression of a player that they wouldn't have by looking at another site.

 

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Baseball Reference seems more consistent with the eyeball test on this one. I'm actually surpsied to see his defense so highly rated by Fangraphs given the fact he's had a few costly misplays this season. High baserunning value (even without many steals) makes sense though due to his speed.

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