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Let’s go get Arrieta


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17 minutes ago, howie said:

Our lineup is much improved, but it’s still not as good as the Astros or Yankees and their pitching is much better.  There are huge questions about every single starting pitcher on our roster.  Do you really think Richards or Heaney or Shoemaker have a chance in the playoffs against Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton?  Or against Altuve and Correa?  

Let’s remember-  the Astros have been there- done that now.  Their playoff and WS experience is huge.  

I don’t want to just be happy to reach the playoffs-  I remember how disappointed I was in 2005 and 2009 and getting swept by the Royals in 2014.  If we’re going to the playoffs, let’s have a chance to win.  If we don’t get Arrieta now, we’ll have to give up some of our potentially great minor leaguers to try to get someone like Arrieta at the trade deadline so we can be competitive in the playoffs.  

Signing Arrieta isn't putting us over the top, and anchoring us down to a 25mil/year pitcher will truly hurt us next year when the truly elite free agents hit the market.  Save the money and cap space, keep trying to fortify the team, and keep an eye on the future.  Realistically, we aren't a championship team next year, but we're a lot closer than we were a year ago.  

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Age 32 pitcher commanding nine figures through his age 36 season.  Coming off a 1.9 WAR season with an FIP of 4.16 and 168ip.   You aren't getting the guy that had a 2 era in 2015.  You're gettin

I think it's going to be a to more effective if we strengthen the bullpen.  A couple of veterans there are cheaper than signing Arrieta, and the length of the contract would not be quite as onerous.

Only way I would want him is if he wants to be here so bad he signs a 4 year deal worth about $100 million or 5 year deal at $110 million. Bottom line I don’t think it will happen.  If you are willing

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Assuming Richards makes it back to form and Ohtani is what we hope he is, an Arrieta, Richards, Ohtani rotation in the playoffs looks pretty good.  

Also, if we sign Arrieta, then it really gives us an opportunity to trade a pitcher or two that Eppler and the scouting department aren’t as high on as we might be.  

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13 minutes ago, howie said:

We’re going to have to deal with Boras at some point or another-  if we think we’re going to get any of the primo 2018 FA’s- we will have to deal with him.  If anything, I hope Eppler at least meets with Boras- it would be interesting to see how he deals with him

It's likely that we aren't going to get any of the big dogs in the 2019 FA class. 

2b and C are the only potential spots we have holes and I think we'll extend Maldonado.   Kershaw will re-up with dogs so the SP market is good but not ball busting.  They'll extend Richards at 4/70.  They aren't getting Machado.   

The biggest thing the 2019 market will do is set the bar for Trout.  Harper will own the richest contract in mlb history for about a week and then Trout will come over the top of him.    

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1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

It's likely that we aren't going to get any of the big dogs in the 2019 FA class. 

2b and C are the only potential spots we have holes and I think we'll extend Maldonado.   Kershaw will re-up with dogs so the SP market is good but not ball busting.  They'll extend Richards at 4/70.  They aren't getting Machado.   

The biggest thing the 2019 market will do is set the bar for Trout.  Harper will own the richest contract in mlb history for about a week and then Trout will come over the top of him.    

I agree it's unlikely we'll see any of the big 3 (Harper, Machado, Kershaw).  We *could* fit Machado on our club if we wanted by flexing Cozart to 2B, which is the beauty of the Cozart signing.  His defensive flexibility means he doesn't really block any particular acquisition or signing, we could just flex him to the open spot.  There are a few noteworthy 2B free agents (Dozier, Forsythe, etc) as well.

I am hopeful about resigning Richards, but his recent injury history is somewhat concerning.  We'll have to see how he does this year.

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@howie, Arrieta hasn't been a "true #1" since 2015. He has declined in each of the next two years and the outlook doesn't look great for 2018. Check out his ERA and FIP each of the last three years:

ERA: 1.77, 3.10, 3.53

FIP: 2.35, 3.52, 4.16

Oh yeah, average fastball velocity: 94.6, 93.7, 92.1

Those are not trends you invest big bucks on. To be honest, based on those numbers alone I'd be hard-pressed to give Arrieta more than 3/$55MM.

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33 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

@howie, Arrieta hasn't been a "true #1" since 2015. He has declined in each of the next two years and the outlook doesn't look great for 2018. Check out his ERA and FIP each of the last three years:

ERA: 1.77, 3.10, 3.53

FIP: 2.35, 3.52, 4.16

Oh yeah, average fastball velocity: 94.6, 93.7, 92.1

Those are not trends you invest big bucks on. To be honest, based on those numbers alone I'd be hard-pressed to give Arrieta more than 3/$55MM.

 

31 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Here's his fastball velocity per game over the last three years:

4153_P_SI_20170926__pi.png

With those numbers, if they keep going the way they are, he could be at Nolasco numbers at year three. Pass.

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I really question whether the team needs any more starters. They've got nine major league caliber starters in Ohtani, Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Bridwell, Tropeano, JC Ramirez, and Barria. They need about 900+ innings from starters, which is an average of 100 IP for those nine. I'm fairly certain they can get those 900 IP from the nine in some form or fashion. If we're lucky they'll get 700+ from the top five, then scatter another 200 IP or so among the other four.

Even if there's injury among the top five, you can get more innings from the other four as necessary. Of course the key is you really want to get a good percentage of starts from the top five, because after that the quality drops a notch. But if they can get 110-120 starts from the top five, I'll be happy, with 40-50 starts from the bottom four.

It is a solid group. Lots of question marks, but you've got to believe that the Angels have burned off some of their injury karma. 

 

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4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I really question whether the team needs any more starters. They've got nine major league caliber starters in Ohtani, Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Bridwell, Tropeano, JC Ramirez, and Barria. 

 

Those guys just aren’t durable . You can’t trust then

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Arrieta, nope, his trajectory says he's gonna crater sooner rather than later.   

Would actually have liked to pick up Chatwood - think he was a a bit of a steal for the Cubs (for a MLB FA, of course) :(    A GB pitcher with our infield in our park would have been nice.  

Doesn't look like there's going to be much on the rental market this season, only would want Keuchel, and he (almost certainly) won't be available, unless Houston implodes.    But speaking of GB pitchers ... 

Think we're just going to have get to October, and if we're in the 1-game, ride the hot hand.   

 

 

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Verlander, Keuckel,Lester, Arrieta have all had their "Career" years. They might still be good pitchers, but not like they use to be, especially for the money. Eppler has a budget to work with. I trust him to use that budget to give us the best bang for the buck. The luxury tax is a real deterrent. It appears that EVERY team in MLB is going to be under the tax this year, and probably into the future also.

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