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Let’s go get Arrieta


howie

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Assuming Richards makes it back to form and Ohtani is what we hope he is, an Arrieta, Richards, Ohtani rotation in the playoffs looks pretty good.  

Also, if we sign Arrieta, then it really gives us an opportunity to trade a pitcher or two that Eppler and the scouting department aren’t as high on as we might be.  

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13 minutes ago, howie said:

We’re going to have to deal with Boras at some point or another-  if we think we’re going to get any of the primo 2018 FA’s- we will have to deal with him.  If anything, I hope Eppler at least meets with Boras- it would be interesting to see how he deals with him

It's likely that we aren't going to get any of the big dogs in the 2019 FA class. 

2b and C are the only potential spots we have holes and I think we'll extend Maldonado.   Kershaw will re-up with dogs so the SP market is good but not ball busting.  They'll extend Richards at 4/70.  They aren't getting Machado.   

The biggest thing the 2019 market will do is set the bar for Trout.  Harper will own the richest contract in mlb history for about a week and then Trout will come over the top of him.    

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1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

It's likely that we aren't going to get any of the big dogs in the 2019 FA class. 

2b and C are the only potential spots we have holes and I think we'll extend Maldonado.   Kershaw will re-up with dogs so the SP market is good but not ball busting.  They'll extend Richards at 4/70.  They aren't getting Machado.   

The biggest thing the 2019 market will do is set the bar for Trout.  Harper will own the richest contract in mlb history for about a week and then Trout will come over the top of him.    

I agree it's unlikely we'll see any of the big 3 (Harper, Machado, Kershaw).  We *could* fit Machado on our club if we wanted by flexing Cozart to 2B, which is the beauty of the Cozart signing.  His defensive flexibility means he doesn't really block any particular acquisition or signing, we could just flex him to the open spot.  There are a few noteworthy 2B free agents (Dozier, Forsythe, etc) as well.

I am hopeful about resigning Richards, but his recent injury history is somewhat concerning.  We'll have to see how he does this year.

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@howie, Arrieta hasn't been a "true #1" since 2015. He has declined in each of the next two years and the outlook doesn't look great for 2018. Check out his ERA and FIP each of the last three years:

ERA: 1.77, 3.10, 3.53

FIP: 2.35, 3.52, 4.16

Oh yeah, average fastball velocity: 94.6, 93.7, 92.1

Those are not trends you invest big bucks on. To be honest, based on those numbers alone I'd be hard-pressed to give Arrieta more than 3/$55MM.

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33 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

@howie, Arrieta hasn't been a "true #1" since 2015. He has declined in each of the next two years and the outlook doesn't look great for 2018. Check out his ERA and FIP each of the last three years:

ERA: 1.77, 3.10, 3.53

FIP: 2.35, 3.52, 4.16

Oh yeah, average fastball velocity: 94.6, 93.7, 92.1

Those are not trends you invest big bucks on. To be honest, based on those numbers alone I'd be hard-pressed to give Arrieta more than 3/$55MM.

 

31 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Here's his fastball velocity per game over the last three years:

4153_P_SI_20170926__pi.png

With those numbers, if they keep going the way they are, he could be at Nolasco numbers at year three. Pass.

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I really question whether the team needs any more starters. They've got nine major league caliber starters in Ohtani, Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Bridwell, Tropeano, JC Ramirez, and Barria. They need about 900+ innings from starters, which is an average of 100 IP for those nine. I'm fairly certain they can get those 900 IP from the nine in some form or fashion. If we're lucky they'll get 700+ from the top five, then scatter another 200 IP or so among the other four.

Even if there's injury among the top five, you can get more innings from the other four as necessary. Of course the key is you really want to get a good percentage of starts from the top five, because after that the quality drops a notch. But if they can get 110-120 starts from the top five, I'll be happy, with 40-50 starts from the bottom four.

It is a solid group. Lots of question marks, but you've got to believe that the Angels have burned off some of their injury karma. 

 

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4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I really question whether the team needs any more starters. They've got nine major league caliber starters in Ohtani, Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Bridwell, Tropeano, JC Ramirez, and Barria. 

 

Those guys just aren’t durable . You can’t trust then

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Arrieta, nope, his trajectory says he's gonna crater sooner rather than later.   

Would actually have liked to pick up Chatwood - think he was a a bit of a steal for the Cubs (for a MLB FA, of course) :(    A GB pitcher with our infield in our park would have been nice.  

Doesn't look like there's going to be much on the rental market this season, only would want Keuchel, and he (almost certainly) won't be available, unless Houston implodes.    But speaking of GB pitchers ... 

Think we're just going to have get to October, and if we're in the 1-game, ride the hot hand.   

 

 

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Verlander, Keuckel,Lester, Arrieta have all had their "Career" years. They might still be good pitchers, but not like they use to be, especially for the money. Eppler has a budget to work with. I trust him to use that budget to give us the best bang for the buck. The luxury tax is a real deterrent. It appears that EVERY team in MLB is going to be under the tax this year, and probably into the future also.

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