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A possibility regarding third base


Angelsjunky

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If the Angels don't sign Moustakas, I could see them going hard after Manny Machado next offseason.

Think about it: Machado is one of the ten or so best position players in the game, is very young, and Latino - which Arte wants for the LA market. A trio of Trout, Machado, and Ohtani is about as sexy as it gets.

Now Machado will be very expensive. I think he'll get something like 10/$350MM, maybe more. All of a sudden the Angels would be spending $85-90 million on three players, and that doesn't count a possible Darvish contract or a Richards extension. But consider that Pujols has four years left on his contract; four years is a long time, but somewhat bearable for a billionaire. So it would be four years of a tight payroll, even going into the luxury tax a bit, and then a bit of relief. And ultimately it would help turn the Angels into a true powerhouse. Machado's combination: more than filling the Glaus-sized hole at third base, being a premium defender, and young, is the perfect fit for the Angels. The only players that I think would be as perfect a fit would be Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant, or Nolan Arenado, and Machado is comparable to all of them.

I wouldn't trade for him this year, but go for him in free agency. The cost in prospects would be too great. If the Angels get Hernandez and then sign Machado, here's their 2019 lineup:

2B Hernandez

CF Trout

3B Machado

LF Upton

DH Ohtani/Pujols

1B Pujols/Thaiss

RF Calhoun (or Jones)

SS Simmons

C Maldonado/Ward

What about Kevin Maitan, you ask? Well, maybe he's converted to second base. Or maybe he's a trade chip. Either way, he's going to be 18 in 2018, so he's probably at least four years away; the Angels can cross that bridge when they get to it.

 

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Well, I just read something in another thread by @Dochalo (arguably the smartest poster on this forum) about payroll flexibility, and I'm a bit more lukewarm about this idea. Machado is a great player, but here's one way to look at the next ten years at 3B (2018-2027):

Machado for $350 million, or

Moustakas for four years and $70MM, and then Maitan for six years and maybe $30MM?

So Machado costs more than three times those two, and the production will probably be more like twice as good.

OK, never mind.

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Just now, Angelsjunky said:

Well, I just read something in another thread by @Dochalo (arguably the smartest poster on this forum) about payroll flexibility, and I'm a bit more lukewarm about this idea. Machado is a great player, but here's one way to look at the next ten years at 3B (2018-2027):

Machado for $350 million, or

Moustakas for four years and $70MM, and then Maitan for six years and maybe $30MM?

So Machado costs more than three times those two, and the production will probably be more like twice as good.

OK, never mind.

I would love to have Machado. I agree that likely is what he lands. I agree on the need to try and maintain payroll flexibility though. Remarkable how well Ohtani fits in to long term payroll projections. The Albertross's contract ends in 2021. 2022 will be Ohtani's arb 2 year.

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Hey everyone remember when we traded for and extended Justin Upton?

I'm guilty too but it's kinda funny how infrequently his name comes up when we all get off on these big name star line-up tangents. Dude definitely won't have the same pressure, attention, or spotlight here like he has in years past.

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1 minute ago, YouthofToday said:

I would love to have Machado. I agree that likely is what he lands. I agree on the need to try and maintain payroll flexibility though. Remarkable how well Ohtani fits in to long term payroll projections. The Albertross's contract ends in 2021. 2022 will be Ohtani's arb 2 year.

I've brought this up elsewhere, but Ohtani's unique situation effectively counterbalances the Pujols deal, provided Pujols can just stay healthy and Ohtani can at least perform adequately at the MLB level. And I say this as one of Albert's biggest supporters. 

What a great signing.

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Where is that money coming from?  lets not forget that while we got Othani cheap for now hes going to get paid if hes even half the hype.  Machado will get paid, large.  Plus we go into 17 without a solution at 3B again?    i dont see that happening.   I thnik we plug all the holes, the front office wants to make a run in 18, not wait for 19

 

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4 minutes ago, floplag said:

Where is that money coming from?  lets not forget that while we got Othani cheap for now hes going to get paid if hes even half the hype.  Machado will get paid, large.  Plus we go into 17 without a solution at 3B again?    i dont see that happening.   I thnik we plug all the holes, the front office wants to make a run in 18, not wait for 19

 

Ohtani won't receive "real money" until after 2023 when he's a free agent. Even if he signs long term before that the contract would factor in his expected arb numbers. Any contract that is way above market value for his arb years would trigger an strong investigation by MLB.

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2 minutes ago, YouthofToday said:

Ohtani won't receive "real money" until after 2023 when he's a free agent. Even if he signs long term before that the contract would factor in his expected arb numbers. Any contract that is way above market value for his arb years would trigger an strong investigation by MLB.

Fair enough, but its not like there wont be overlap as Machado isnt sighing for less than 5 years, no way no how.  Regardless still leaves us with no 3B for 18, which i highly doubt will be allowed

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I talked about this in the Primer Series and Machado is achievable by front-loading his contract and giving him at least one opt-out after 2020 (or 2021 or both). You pay him a lot to play here in 2019 and 2020 and then let him hit free agency. You clear payroll and aren't obligated to him unless he gets injured which is why you lay insurance onto Manny as well to mitigate that risk.

Machado is not only a target next off-season but THIS off-season. More likely at the trade deadline which is why Eppler is potentially comfortable rolling Valbuena out there to start 2018.

He easily meets the defensive profile and will probably have a bounce back year. On top of that the 3B market now and mid-season will likely be depressed and we might have a J.D. Martinez to the Diamondbacks trade where they don't get as much out of his value due to a lack of demand.

We are still not done but perhaps some of these fireworks will be delayed until mid-season or next off-season.

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3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

If the Angels don't sign Moustakas, I could see them going hard after Manny Machado next offseason.

Think about it: Machado is one of the ten or so best position players in the game, is very young, and Latino - which Arte wants for the LA market. A trio of Trout, Machado, and Ohtani is about as sexy as it gets.

Now Machado will be very expensive. I think he'll get something like 10/$350MM, maybe more. All of a sudden the Angels would be spending $85-90 million on three players, and that doesn't count a possible Darvish contract or a Richards extension. But consider that Pujols has four years left on his contract; four years is a long time, but somewhat bearable for a billionaire. So it would be four years of a tight payroll, even going into the luxury tax a bit, and then a bit of relief. And ultimately it would help turn the Angels into a true powerhouse. Machado's combination: more than filling the Glaus-sized hole at third base, being a premium defender, and young, is the perfect fit for the Angels. The only players that I think would be as perfect a fit would be Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant, or Nolan Arenado, and Machado is comparable to all of them.

I wouldn't trade for him this year, but go for him in free agency. The cost in prospects would be too great. If the Angels get Hernandez and then sign Machado, here's their 2019 lineup:

2B Hernandez

CF Trout

3B Machado

LF Upton

DH Ohtani/Pujols

1B Pujols/Thaiss

RF Calhoun (or Jones)

SS Simmons

C Maldonado/Ward

What about Kevin Maitan, you ask? Well, maybe he's converted to second base. Or maybe he's a trade chip. Either way, he's going to be 18 in 2018, so he's probably at least four years away; the Angels can cross that bridge when they get to it.

 

Also by front-loading Machado's contract and giving him the opt-out(s) after 2020 (or 2021) you create the space for Maitan at 3B potentially.

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While I would love to have Machado I just don't think we have a shot. 

Another star third basemen I think we have an outside chance on is Nolan Arenado. He was born and raised in Orange County. He is a free agent after the 2019 season. Arenado is just as good as Machado offensively and even better defensively. The downside is a 10 year contract would be from age 29-38, versus Machado at 26-35, though Machado's deal will absolutely have an opt out after 3-4 years so he can get another large contract while still young.

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2 minutes ago, Randy Gradishar said:

It seems like the Angels have avoided douchebags in Arte's reign; but then again, at any one time there are maybe 4 douchebags in MLB, so it's a small sample size. Most teams have zero, some have one, and there are no Cincinnati Bengals (maybe Rangers?).

But who have the Angels had? Jose Guillen didn't last long. Valbuena's bat flips? Weaver for Tiger fans? 

Maybe it's just that I would have trouble rooting for him, for at least 7 minutes or so.

Hamilton

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3 hours ago, floplag said:

Fair enough, but its not like there wont be overlap as Machado isnt sighing for less than 5 years, no way no how.  Regardless still leaves us with no 3B for 18, which i highly doubt will be allowed

Pujols will reach 2000 RBIs and 3000 hits sometime in 2018, and his batting average will fall uncomfortably close to falling below .300 for his career. If he finishes his contract out, he will certainly fall below a .300 for his career. I'm hoping he will retire after this season. He will regret it if he drops his average below .300 Mantle did.

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7 hours ago, Randy Gradishar said:

It seems like the Angels have avoided douchebags in Arte's reign; but then again, at any one time there are maybe 4 douchebags in MLB, so it's a small sample size. Most teams have zero, some have one, and there are no Cincinnati Bengals (maybe Rangers?).

But who have the Angels had? Jose Guillen didn't last long. Valbuena's bat flips? Weaver for Tiger fans? 

Maybe it's just that I would have trouble rooting for him, for at least 7 minutes or so.

CJ WIlson

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7 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Pujols will reach 2000 RBIs and 3000 hits sometime in 2018, and his batting average will fall uncomfortably close to falling below .300 for his career. If he finishes his contract out, he will certainly fall below a .300 for his career. I'm hoping he will retire after this season. He will regret it if he drops his average below .300 Mantle did.

Perhaps,  I find it hard to believe anyone walks away from that kind of money ego/legacy or not.  i think more likely some kind of personal services deal or something to offset it. 
Regardless it still leaves us with no 3B for 18.

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12 hours ago, YouthofToday said:

Ohtani won't receive "real money" until after 2023 when he's a free agent. Even if he signs long term before that the contract would factor in his expected arb numbers. Any contract that is way above market value for his arb years would trigger an strong investigation by MLB.

If  Ohtani is the real deal, when he hits his arbitration years everyone will be wanting the Angels to lock him up long term, so he doesn't leave. Something that happens 3 years down the road won't trigger an investigation.

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Thanks for the props AJ.  

While I would love to have Machado I only see that happening if he has another off year and signs for far less money than you mentioned.   Personally, I don't think he cracks the 300m barrier.  probably right up against it.   Even still, I think the system is set up as such that having more than one player with an AAV over 30m creates a fair amount of restriction. I think it will be like that going forward.  The penalties in the new CBA are now severe enough to deter the large market teams from just paying some extra cash.  

The value of baseball franchises isn't going to continue to appreciate at the rate it has been.  Once it levels off, we won't see teams taking on debt to increase payroll.  Ie there will be less borrowing against the future value of teams.  

 

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I've noticed during Eppler's tenure, he's targeted (and attracted) high quality, good clubhouse people. Guys that know how to be a good teammate.

Manny Machado is not that player. He's selfish, gets fired up over perceived wrongs which forces his teammates to back him on things that they otherwise wouldn't. He whines when he doesn't get his way. 

I'd steer clear of Harper and Donaldson for similar reasons.

Your clubhouse leaders right now are Trout, Pujols, Calhoun and Simmons. It isn't coincidence that they're all hard working, humble, good teammates. That's by design.

The additions such as Maldonado and Upton only add to that team identity. Shohei Ohtani will fit right in. 

So whoever they add, I think they either have to fit that, or be the sort of teammate that at least won't get in the way of that.

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