AngelsWin.com Today: Angelswin.com 2018 Primer Series: Final Thoughts

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

Edited by Chance Hevia (Inside Pitch) and Jason Sinner (Dochalo)

As I said in the final installment of the Trade Deadline Series, the only substantive path moving forward from the 2017 Trade Deadline through the end of 2020 is contending over the next 3 1/2 seasons of Mike Trout’s current contractual control.

Nothing else matters.

This does not mean that we do not plan beyond 2020 or that we sacrifice everything now for this 3-year period but it does mean a laser-like focus on winning in that time frame. It is my belief that Billy and Arte fully understand this.

That is why, near the end of August, Eppler invested in the team by acquiring Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips at a pretty reasonable cost. It was a calculated gamble to win now, with Mike Trout, that did not work out.

The move even had a hint of brinkmanship and shrewdness to it, on Eppler’s part, because if Upton leaves we only paid a small pittance for a 1-month rental but if he stays the Angels have finally filled the gaping hole in left field, long-term, and, guess what, Justin signed a new 5-year deal at a fair market rate.

Winning in the Mike Trout window while re-positioning and re-tooling the team around him will take some crafty maneuvering, bold moves, and a commitment by Moreno to open the pocketbook when the time is right to ensure that the extra money he dolls out will be minimized and applied intelligently, not wasted.

As I outlined in the Finances section, the Angels have a lot of free payroll space this off-season. In fact they have enough space this year to afford to not exceed the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold. It is unnecessary, this year, even if they take on a big contract.

However if the Angels do want to dole out some extensions to specific key players while demonstrating to Mike Trout that they can and will compete in the future, in order to sway him to sign a mega-extension, they will need to de-conflict their strong desire to compete over the next three years with the reality that payroll will rise in 2019 and 2020, primarily due to rising arbitration costs.

The only probable way to mitigate that conflict, barring a series of brilliant moves by Billy Eppler, will be for Arte Moreno to authorize a brief increase in team payroll that takes us over the CBT threshold in 2019 and 2020 or 2020 and 2021 to help acquire the assets the Angels will need to make a strong run over the next three seasons.

In fact this year or next may be that moment where Arte allows Billy Eppler to exceed the Luxury Tax for that “right player” Moreno has spoken about in the past.

Based on the new CBT thresholds and rules and the fact that the Angels would be a “first-time offender” if they eclipse the Luxury Tax, Eppler could trade for a big name player, with 3 or more years of control, this off-season or sign one to a long-term, front-loaded deal, with one or more opt-out’s after 2020, next off-season (i.e. likely controlling them for no more than 2-3 years). This type of move would unlikely hurt team payroll in the long-term and would increase the odds of winning in the Mike Trout window of contention.

In either scenario, striking this off-season or next, the Angels could exceed the CBT threshold in 2019 ($206M) by up to, likely, $40M which would incur a first-year penalty of up to $10.4M if they hit the, plausible, maximum ceiling of $246M in AAV.

A second year would incur upwards of a $14.4M penalty for the 2020 season as long as they do not exceed the Luxury Tax threshold by more than, the aforementioned, $40M. After that it would be probable that the big-name trade target or free agent in question would opt-out and the Angels would be out of the penalty box.

To be clear it is probable that Arte Moreno has never contemplated a payroll penalty of this magnitude since he bought the team. In fact he has consistently kept payroll in a fairly tight range from season to season even as the total expenditures rose without ever going over the CBT threshold except for that one time, for a minuscule amount, over a decade ago.

However when you consider the debt-free status of the team, the large television contract that was signed years ago worth $150M per season ($3B total over 20 years), and the partial controlling share they have in the network, there is certainly some reason for optimism, based on Moreno’s own words, that if the stars align, the Los Angeles Angels will take that calculated risk and leap into budget-busting territory for a short spell.

That decision to push all-in on a top-tier player will certainly require the right confluence of circumstances to even happen and it is very unlikely the Angels will stay above the CBT threshold for longer than a 2-year period, maximum, to avoid serious penalties under the new CBA.

If the Angels exceed the Luxury Tax threshold of $206M in 2019 they will either do it by no more than $20M or no more than $40M because the new CBA extracts additional surcharge penalties at those two separate tiers. For reference here is the relevant section from the new CBA:

So it seems realistic that Arte could authorize an increase in the 2018-2019 or 2019-2020 off-season for a two-year span covering the 2019 and 2020 or 2020 and 2021 seasons.

For instance if they go over less than $20M in 2019 they will pay 20% and if they continue to go over in 2020 they pay 30% whereas if they go up to $40M over they will pay 32% and 42%, respectively, for the difference in how much they exceed the $20M threshold mark.

The real danger with the Luxury Tax is when you become a third-time offender or exceed the CBT threshold by more than $40M. The taxes increase significantly and the club can have its Rule IV draft position impacted too. It seems very likely that the Angels would avoid becoming a third-time offender, at all costs.

Also, to be clear, the Angels do not have to exceed the CBT threshold by a lot to achieve their goals.

For instance the Angels could, this off-season, execute the following transactions:

• Trade Kole Calhoun, Jahmai Jones, Matt Thaiss, Kaleb Cowart, Wade Wass, and Jonah Wesley for Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon, Jose Urena, and $24M in cash
• Trade C.J. Cron, Chris Rodriguez, and Taylor Ward for Brandon Belt
• Extend Garrett Richards (6 years, $90M), Martin Maldonado (5 years, $35M), and Tyler Skaggs (5 years, $35M)
• The team would still have top prospects like Jordon Adell, Brandon Marsh, Jaime Barria, Jose Suarez, Griffin Canning, and Jerryell Rivera, as well as potential solid role players like Michael Hermosillo, Leonardo Rivas, and Jake Jewell among others
• Actual payroll would be approximately $192M and AAV would be approximately $188M ($9M under the CBT threshold)

In the following 2018-2019 off-season the Angels could also do the following:

• Extend Mike Trout (12 years, $500M) and Andrelton Simmons (7 years, $119M)
• Trade Matt Shoemaker and J.C. Ramirez for prospects (one likely being a MLB ready 3B prospect)
• Decline Valbuena’s option year
• Actual payroll would still be about $192M and AAV would be right at the threshold of $206M
• If the Angels needed more payroll room at the Trade Deadline in 2019 Moreno could authorize an increase over the CBT threshold as needed and the penalty would be, at most, $4M as long as the team does not go over the CBT threshold by more than $20M

This is just an example of the types of moves the Angels can make with their newfound payroll space. It also relies on paying the extension candidates a little less money in 2018, 2019, and 2020 and moving some of that salary out to the 2021+ time frame. However after 2021 Pujols comes off the books and essentially cancels the impact of this salary distribution.

As we said in the Strategy sections (Part I and II) there are so many permutations and paths for how the season can unfold that it is difficult to guess the particulars. Here is a more generic template (you can fill in your own guesses as you prefer) that the Angels may be operating on:

In the end it is my personal belief Eppler and Moreno are gearing up for a big run over the next three years as they should be doing. No prospect is safe and some of our low and mid-end regulars could be on the block too.

Imagine and prepare for the Angels to part ways with at least one or more of their top prospects to acquire the high-end regulars they need to start the season or to upgrade for at the trade deadline to make a strong run at the playoffs over the next 2-3 years.

Why keep Adell if you can package him up with other players and prospects to get a front-line starter like Archer? Pairing Chris with a newly extended Richards over at least the next four years would give the Angels strong production and a 1-2 punch in the playoffs without seriously damaging team payroll.

Alternatively, why keep Jones if you can package him with Calhoun and potentially nab a really top-flight outfielder like Stanton? The Angels would wind up with perhaps the greatest outfield trio to ever play the game for the next three seasons and we would still have prospects like Jordon Adell and Brandon Marsh that could fill a potential void after 2020.

If the Angels extend Maldonado is Ward really that important to keep if you can package him up with C.J. Cron and Chris Rodriguez for four years of a solid hitting 1B like Belt? Brandon would be a great lead-off or two-hole hitter in front of Mike Trout and the Angels would still have other reasonable back-up catching options behind the dish moving forward.

Of course the Angels can avoid parting with any prospects and go after superstar Japanese player Shohei Ohtani as we discussed in Eppler’s Strategy section (Part II) of the Primer Series (note just as this went to publication the O.C. Register’s Jeff Fletcher reported that the Angels do have interest in signing him).

Certainly depth is very important, so I am not advocating laying waste to our Minor League assets, but certainly there are areas of strength in our farm system such as outfield and pitching of which Eppler can draw upon to execute some needed trades to improve the team today, not tomorrow.

Adding a big name like Giancarlo Stanton (high salary, medium prospect cost), Chris Archer (very low salary, high prospect cost), or Shohei Ohtani ($20M posting fee plus a couple of normal pre-arbitration salaries with a probable long-term, high salary extension contract) would probably have the greatest immediate impact. Alternatively signing or trading for more than one above-average player like Zack Cozart and Trevor Bauer could provide a similar but more dispersed value to the team.

Moves like these would allow the Angels to start off the season from a great base and move toward the Trade Deadline with a likely, stronger posture. Once they hit the deadline there is a reasonably good chance the Angels can upgrade at 3B, SP, or RP, as needed, with names like Machado, Donaldson, Happ, Gonzalez, Harvey, Britton, Kimbrel, Miller, and Allen potentially available.

On the off-chance Eppler is priced out of the trade and free agent markets for his preferred choices, this off-season, he can still upgrade at 2B and/or 1B to compete effectively in 2018 and wait for the 2018-2019 off-season to make a run at some of the bigger names that will be available next year at this time.

A simple example might be acquiring Ian Kinsler to play 2B and signing Logan Morrison to man 1B. Both would be short-term commitments that could bridge the gap to 2019 where the Angels could find reduced asking prices on players at those positions or focus on one of the marquee names like Machado.

It is not completely unreasonable to believe that the Angels could sign a guy like Manny to a mega-deal but front-load the contract heavily in the first two years (2019 and 2020) and then give him an opt-out after 2020 (or even two opt-outs, one after 2020, the other after 2021). By putting a lot of salary in those first two seasons you make it a near certainty that he would opt-out after 2020 and would pull the team back below the Luxury Tax threshold. This type of contract is increasingly more common in baseball.

Ultimately, if you are a fan of rebuilding farm systems, this may, in my humble opinion, be a potentially painful two years for you. The good news is that although we are about to expend at least some of our prospect capital we will also be restocking some of it over the same time frame, via the Rule IV draft, and when we finally do need it in the 2020-2021 range some of them should be ready to step into the fold.

Also one final detail. Many of these bigger names we could potentially pick up can also be traded in their last year of control, likely netting a reasonably healthy return in prospects.

So for instance if Upton stays for the next four years we could always move him in trade in the 2020-2021 off-season or at the deadline in 2021 for a decent return that will help restock our system. Losing a good prospect now could, in part, be made up for at a later date.

The final caveat to the entire Primer Series is that I once wrote, two years ago, that Moreno would and should open his wallet to pick up a big name outfielder and I was proven wrong.

I could easily be proven wrong here, as well, but the timeline makes too much sense with the Angels staying below the Luxury Tax threshold this year then potentially exceeding it, even if only by a mild amount, for a 2-year window through the end of Mike Trout’s current contract.

This time I really hope that I am right.

View the full article

[ettin]

I hope that one or more of you (I know @Mark68 reads it for sure! ) enjoyed the series. Every year I learn more and more and I find it therapeutic to go through the machinations of deciphering the financial and market details and sharing what I find.

Happy Holidays Angels fans and I think, in the end, we will be pleased with the on-field product in 2018 and beyond!

Go Angels!

[Mark68]

 

[Angelsjunky]

Great job, Robert. I think this is by far your best year yet. I like the fact that you focused less on countless possible trades, and more on the subtle things that most of us don't think about. It really feels like a gift to all of us - you're doing a lot of leg-work and educating the rest of us.

A couple things regarding this piece. First of all, I understand where you are coming from but don't agree that "nothing else matters." Yes, Arte and Billy want to win in the "Trout Window," but they also want to create a perennial contender. That REALLY matters, especially when over-emphasizing the next three years can bankrupt that extended future of ongoing contention.

Of course it isn't either/or, but that only further disagrees with the notion that "nothing else matters."

One more thing. I do agree that no prospect is safe, except for maybe one: Jo Adell. I also think that Brandon Marsh, Trent Deveaux, Chris Rodriguez, and most of the higher upside younger guys in Rookie and low-A are pretty safe - at least this offseason. Why? Not because Eppler won't be willing to trade them for the right player, but because their trade value has not yet peaked yet.

Actually, this is true of most of the Angels' prospects. Jahmai Jones is close, but his value will probably be greater next offseason, after he's established himself in A+/AA this year. Even looking at someone like Matt Thaiss...what if consolidates and has a great year in hitter-friendly Salt Lake? 

But yes...Eppler will be willing to make trades, and even higher end prospects, but hopefully not until their value is closer to its peak. A year from now Brandon Marsh could be a top 50 prospect, so why trade him now? It won't happen, IMO. Or at least shouldn't.

[Chuck]

Great read, @ettin. I had a long commute on the bus into Seattle today due to severe traffic so this was perfect to go with my Starbucks coffee and music on the way in. 

[ettin]

1 minute ago, Chuckster70 said:

Great read, @ettin. I had a long commute on the bus into Seattle today due to severe traffic so this was perfect to go with my Starbucks coffee and music on the way in. 

Must have been a helluva long bus ride!

[Chuck]

4 minutes ago, ettin said:

Must have been a helluva long bus ride!

Usually it takes about 30 min on the bus into Seattle from Issaquah (total of an hour commute). Today it was an  hour long bus ride in stop and go. So yeah, it took me an hour to your article. lol

[beatlesrule]

There's no way Maldonado, Richards, Simmons and Skaggs are worth those contracts. 500 million for Trout is insane even if it's for 12 years. 

[ettin]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Great job, Robert. I think this is by far your best year yet. I like the fact that you focused less on countless possible trades, and more on the subtle things that most of us don't think about. It really feels like a gift to all of us - you're doing a lot of leg-work and educating the rest of us.

A couple things regarding this piece. First of all, I understand where you are coming from but don't agree that "nothing else matters." Yes, Arte and Billy want to win in the "Trout Window," but they also want to create a perennial contender. That REALLY matters, especially when over-emphasizing the next three years can bankrupt that extended future of ongoing contention.

Of course it isn't either/or, but that only further disagrees with the notion that "nothing else matters."

One more thing. I do agree that no prospect is safe, except for maybe one: Jo Adell. I also think that Brandon Marsh, Trent Deveaux, Chris Rodriguez, and most of the higher upside younger guys in Rookie and low-A are pretty safe - at least this offseason. Why? Not because Eppler won't be willing to trade them for the right player, but because their trade value has not yet peaked yet.

Actually, this is true of most of the Angels' prospects. Jahmai Jones is close, but his value will probably be greater next offseason, after he's established himself in A+/AA this year. Even looking at someone like Matt Thaiss...what if consolidates and has a great year in hitter-friendly Salt Lake? 

But yes...Eppler will be willing to make trades, and even higher end prospects, but hopefully not until their value is closer to its peak. A year from now Brandon Marsh could be a top 50 prospect, so why trade him now? It won't happen, IMO. Or at least shouldn't.

Thanks AJ!

I actually considered changing that "nothing else matters" statement a couple of days back but felt that the follow-on paragraph behind it explained my thought process. I agree that we don't tear everything down that wasn't my intent. But the sharp focus is of course.

Personally I agree that some prospects are probably too raw to have improved their stock. Marsh and Adell are examples. The latter has his #1 pick status going for him though so that does have value although I think Jahmai Jones is first to go if anyone does. Rodriguez has established himself well too despite his level so he strikes me as someone Eppler might trade too.

I get your point and I removed the statement I had in that area saying "I could be wrong too!". The impetus for that though in the first place stemmed from the fact that the Angels will almost certainly expend prospect capital on a 2B as the trade market, other than Cozart (who I like a lot as a 2b backup SS option) and Walker (like his bat not as enamored with him defensively), where there are lots of good options. Also the 1B market in trade is much more preferable than the FA market. Then there is Stanton and Archer in the trade markets as well, particularly the former (the latter I really love from a payroll perspective) that are real possibilities for the team.

All of those positions of course would require prospects to be sent of course which is why I am a bit fearful we will see some of our farm system moved. This isn't a completely bad thing in my eyes because eventually we will be making trades of our own high salaried arbitration players (Shoemaker being the likeliest one next year)  and we will be getting an influx into our farm that way as well as continuing to get new guys in the Draft's and through possible other means. Eppler could of course prove me wrong (and probably will on this front).

This should be an off-season filled with excitement for the Angels no matter what actually happens. I see clear extensions for Richards and Maldonado, barring a trade or signing to replace them. I see a big acquisition of one of either Ohtani, Stanton, or Archer (looking primarily like the former now). It is within the bounds of our payroll to get two of those guys but the laws of probability are really against us in that regard (like less than 1%). I can see a trade deadline where we grab someone like Machado or Donaldson to upgrade at 3B for a stretch run (which is why Eppler wants Valbuena at 3B to start the season so he can easily upgrade with the most production in all likelihood).

The bottom line is that I really do see this season as the turning point for a sustained run over the next several years whether we extend Mike Trout or not. Momentum is carrying us forward in a big way.

 

[Mark68]

32 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Great read, @ettin. I had a long commute on the bus into Seattle today due to severe traffic so this was perfect to go with my Starbucks coffee and music on the way in. 

So, a weekday?

[ettin]

6 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

There's no way Maldonado, Richards, Simmons and Skaggs are worth those contracts. 500 million for Trout is insane even if it's for 12 years. 

I know you think that is crazy Beatle but I challenge you to go look up similar comparable players to these guys and show me how my estimates are off-base.

Maldonado is in his last year of arbitration control. He is estimated to make nearly $3M in 2018. Using that as a base for an extension contract it is not unreasonable to believe that over a 5 year contract he would make $3M, $5M, $7M, $9M, and $11M for a total of $35M. If he were a free agent, coming off the year he had, he would probably make at least $7M per year over the same period, minimum. I think that estimate is pretty damn close to the mark (which is why I put a range of $24M-$40M).

In regard to Richards where are you going to find a top-flight pitcher with ace potential in this market place? $30M per season for Arrieta or Darvish? Garrett is projected to make $7M in arbitration in 2018. Using that as a base you would have to think that over a 6 year period he'd make at least $80M if not more? It has been shown that extending or re-signing your own good players is more cost-effective than going out on the open market. Despite Richards injuries he has ace-level stuff and his arm has a low relative amount of innings thrown in comparison to other pitchers even though he had the partial UCL tear.

I showed the comparable players to Simmons in the article so based on those extensions and what Andrelton would make in free agency I think I made a case for what it would take (whether the Angels do that or not is certainly debatable). I don't think I'm too far off on that either to be honest.

Skaggs, despite what some here feel about him, has excellent raw stuff. His curve ball is just as nasty as Richards is. If we trade him now we will regret it I think, mark my words. 5 years, $35M is a worthwhile extension for him and for us if you believe he will be fully healthy next season.

Finally Trout will take us and any team into uncharted territory. Mark my words here Beatle next year's free agent market will shatter previous records for contracts. I sincerely believe that if Harper has another healthy season he will get upwards of $450M. Machado will get upwards of $400M. They are both very young and both will benefit from a tremendous amount of open payroll on some very large market teams like the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, and Nationals. After that Mike Trout, the best player in the world, will get paid MORE than they will to secure him for the rest of his career. That will take us up toward $500M.

Thanks for reading Beatle, I know you disagree but I would ask you to do some research and show me why you think I am wrong. If it is a reasonable argument I'll turn around and tell you, you are right!

[beatlesrule]

Richards and Skaggs can't stay healthy. Richards has only pitched over 200 innings once. Skaggs is still very unproven even when he does pitch.  Simmons is an excellent defensive SS and pretty good with the bat.  The money you are giving him is held for guys that excel at both or at least hit 300 with 25/30 hrs.  MM can't hit and is 31 so no way he is worth the amount you are giving him.  The 500 for Trout is insane but you have a point if Harper and Manny get that much money.  Time will tell on that one.

[Mark68]

I do think the Angels should focus on winning while Trout is guaranteed to be here, and that to do so, they will need to spend bigly, either by making trades to pick up some large scale talent, both on the mound and at the plate this offseason, or by finding short-term stopgaps at positions of need thus freeing up opportunity to go for the biggest names available next offseason.

I think, in the end, if Ohtani doesn't work out, we're going to have to trade for a frontline starter. Despite Eppler's protestations to the contrary, I believe he knows that we need a front-of-the-rotation starter (Archer would certainly fit that bill, however, I don't think the Rays know what they're going to do yet, so he may not be available--yet). On the offense/defense side, there are two targets for next offseason, and I actually think Arenado should be Target Numero Uno.

Getting Arenado to play 3B would give us the best defensive left side of the infield in, perhaps, baseball history. He is better defensively than Machado, and is less of a headache. Plus, he's pretty decent with the bat, too. The other target would be, of course, Harper. Although, if Eppler was somehow able to get Stanton, then we can let everyone else fight for Harper.

We do have to keep an eye on 2021 and beyond, however, because if we want to keep Trout, he WILL cost $500 million. Of this, I have no doubt. If we can't afford that, then we better have some pieces in place to alleviate the loss (you can't, really, alleviate the loss of a Mike Trout, but somebody still has to play the position...I'd like for it to be someone good). What I mean by this is, yes, use the farm to get the targets we want, but PRIORITIZE. Use the farm to get Archer or Stanton. Do NOT use the farm to get someone who we're gonna have to replace in a couple of years.

Prepare for both scenarios: Trout leaves, and Trout stays. If he needs, we need to reload and have the pieces to do so. If he stays, well then, we'll have to also have the pieces that are relatively inexpensive around Trout so we can afford him.

In other words, trade the farm. Do it smartly. But don't trade the WHOLE farm. We're gonna need some of those guys.

[Angelsjunky]

I don't think the question is whether Trout will get $500M, it is whether he gets $600M. 

@ettin, good response and I overall agree, but still think Eppler should--and will--hold off on trading any very young high-upside prospects this offseason, because their value on the trade market is far from peaking. And this includes Chris Rodriguez. He has some value now, but chances are he'll have a lot more a year from now, or even in July.

Unfortunately one player who has a good amount of trade value now is Jaime Barria. I don't think he'll be traded, but he's one of their best chips. Jahmai, too, although he also could use another year or so to increase his value.

I also don't agree that Garret gets that kind of extension. He has to prove he can stay healthy for a year, and if he does he'll get more. So it makes sense for him to get arbitration for one more year and then go to free agency next year.

 

[ettin]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I don't think the question is whether Trout will get $500M, it is whether he gets $600M. 

@ettin, good response and I overall agree, but still think Eppler should--and will--hold off on trading any very young high-upside prospects this offseason, because their value on the trade market is far from peaking. And this includes Chris Rodriguez. He has some value now, but chances are he'll have a lot more a year from now, or even in July.

Unfortunately one player who has a good amount of trade value now is Jaime Barria. I don't think he'll be traded, but he's one of their best chips. Jahmai, too, although he also could use another year or so to increase his value.

I also don't agree that Garret gets that kind of extension. He has to prove he can stay healthy for a year, and if he does he'll get more. So it makes sense for him to get arbitration for one more year and then go to free agency next year.

 

It's funny although I agree that Barria has trade value for sure I actually think the Angels will need him to replace Shoemaker next off-season so I think he is well protected, barring a trade for someone like Archer for instance (high-end type starter).

In regard to Richards to me he has already proven he's healthy. But I could be in the minority here. There has to be some risk management involved in Eppler's decisions and you have to ask yourself is it better to pay Richards that amount now, gambling on his improved health, or is it better to spend a ton of money in FA on a guy like Arrieta or Darvish who have their health warts too? The only other option is trade and now we are back to moving prospects again. If we wait a year and Garrett pitches well he hits free agency and we are paying a 6-year, $120M+ deal to him.

[Angelsjunky]

Garret's performance was very encouraging, but I still wouldn't extend him...yet. Especially considering he never pitched more than 6 innings. I'd like to see a dozen or so more starts, then maybe a mid-season extension. Maybe you spend a bit more, but better safe than sorry.

[ettin]

By the way I'd like to thank @Inside Pitch and @Dochalo for all of their valuable recommendations and edits to the Primer Series as a whole. Appreciate the inputs guys you helped make the Series better, thank you!

[Inside Pitch]

Lies -- that was all you....   All you.

Great job as always, Robert.

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Lies -- that was all you....   All you.

Great job as always, Robert.

Agree.  My input was generally 'looks awesome Robert'.  

This was an excellent series.  

[Blarg]

On 12/1/2017 at 12:12 PM, Angelsjunky said:

I don't think the question is whether Trout will get $500M, it is whether he gets $600M. 

I don't think any of you have any idea how fucking stupid this kind of thinking is. You look at Pujols and Cabrera and then say, Trout will get a half billion dollars plus for a contract to his fourties. 

I love the idea of Trout being a lifetime Angel but not at that cost. It's just too obtuse for an athlete that can trip on his kids toys and end a productive career. I'd rather read about him doing that as a Yankee.

 

[ettin]

4 hours ago, Blarg said:

I don't think any of you have any idea how fucking stupid this kind of thinking is. You look at Pujols and Cabrera and then say, Trout will get a half billion dollars plus for a contract to his fourties. 

I love the idea of Trout being a lifetime Angel but not at that cost. It's just too obtuse for an athlete that can trip on his kids toys and end a productive career. I'd rather read about him doing that as a Yankee.

 

Personally Blarg I think $500M is the magic number but it could be lower or higher (and I could be totally wrong here too, this is uncharted territory in free agency contracts). Also on any contract of this size most teams usually insure it in case something happens to the player (not unlike what happened with Prince Fielder where the Rangers got an insurance payment).

That being said that is a massive commitment to one player and it may be one the Angels want to avoid financially so I completely understand everyone's takes on this subject it is not for the faint of heart.

The only thing that I do believe is that Mike, out of any other player in the League, is potentially worth that investment and could, as I outlined in the Outfield section, actually have a large surplus value based on the rudimentary model I used there (and the model is very basic and doesn't account for risk and money/financial valuations). I know it sounds even crazier to present a $500M Trout extension as a value play too so I am willing to gleefully admit that I could be absolutely wrong on this subject. Personally I don't think he goes any higher than $550M max simply because there is a maximum artificial ceiling that any team will pay for one player in the current market place.

[Mark68]

4 hours ago, Blarg said:

I don't think any of you have any idea how fucking stupid this kind of thinking is. You look at Pujols and Cabrera and then say, Trout will get a half billion dollars plus for a contract to his fourties. 

I love the idea of Trout being a lifetime Angel but not at that cost. It's just too obtuse for an athlete that can trip on his kids toys and end a productive career. I'd rather read about him doing that as a Yankee.

 

Calling that kind of thinking "fucking stupid" is a little over the top, don't you think? You're automatically dismissing the idea with unnecessary snark.

Let me explain what might lead to the thought that Trout might receive a contract for $500 million...

With the ever-increasing financial resources available to most teams, inflation, and continued Hall of Fame-worthy performance of Trout, and the fact that he will be a free agent after his age-28 season, it's not that unreasonable to think that he can get a 12-year contract in the neighborhood of a half billion dollars. After all, Stanton, a great player in his own right, but not the player Trout is, was offered $325 million over 13 years by a team with fewer resources than teams like the Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, and Cubs have at their disposal.

And Stanton wasn't even on the open market. If you don't think that someone might offer a player of Trout's caliber a contract in that neighborhood if he ever hits the open market, I believe you are being very short-sighted.

Here's some food for thought in comparing Trout and Stanton:

In Stanton's 8-year career, he has amassed 35.1 WAR, an average of 4.39 per season. In Trout's 7-year career, he has accrued 55.2 WAR, or 7.89 per season.

[Blarg]

$500-600 million for a single guy to play baseball, half of which is his declining years,  is fucking stupid. We already are witness to how fucking stupid the Pujols contract is and now you are trying to justify doubling down on stupid.

I'm not buying it and I hope the Angels are never put into the position to have to make a decision to ruin their franchise over one player, even if it is Mike Trout. 

Edited December 3, 2017 by Blarg

[Dick B Back]

Dingle guy... tis the season.