Upton Signs New 5-Year, $106m Deal with Angels

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I feel like Hosmer is the right play.

My instincts tell me Moustakas might be a bust or really close to Valbuena.

I don't believe in Cron as an everyday player over 150 games.  I just feel he is a tweener, too good to sit and not good enough to be happy with his 150 game performance.

Find a team that thinks he is serviceable for 150 games and trade him.

Hosmer checks off 1B period.

3-year averages: 
Hosmer: 159 games, .294/.359/.463/.822, 119 OPS+, 29 doubles, 23 home runs, 97 RBI, 61 walks, 115 strikeouts, 2.9 WAR annually. 
Player B: 155 games, .250/.362/.450/.813, 113 OPS+, 32 doubles, 25 home runs, 84 RBI, 98 walks, 105 strikeouts, 2.5 WAR annually. 

And if three years is too broad, here's the 2017 second half:
Hosmer: 75 games, .319/.397/.504/.900, 11 doubles, 13 home runs, 52 RBI, 35 walks, 48 strikeouts.
Player B: 70 games, .287/.392/.514/.906, 14 doubles, 13 home runs, 32 RBI, 41 walks, 41 strikeouts

Player B is likely to cost $100m and 3-4 years less.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, JarsOfClay said:

I've already said I hated the Upton trade and ofcourse I hate this deal also.

One thing no one has mentioned is what's gonna happen to the angels young OF prospects?

A few things to consider. One, Calhoun will possibly be traded. If he's not, he'll only block an OF prospect if he's better than that OF prospect, in which case the prospect could be traded.

Two, the only OF prospect who is close to ready is Hermosillo, who probably won't be better than a quality regular, maybe more of a good platoon/role player. Hermosillo can still slot in nicely as soon as late 2018 as the 4th outfielder and, if he shows more potential, the starter in 2019, with Calhoun shipped.

After Hermosillo, you've got Jones coming up sometime in late 2019 or 2020. Adell and Marsh in 2020-21, and Deveaux in 2022 or beyond. Upton is signed 2018-22, so if he's in decline those last couple years could be pushed.

And of course there's no certainty that Trout will re-sign with the Angels, so it is theoretically possible that come 2021, Upton will be joined in the outfield by three of Jones, Adell, and Marsh.

If I were to guess, we'd probably see an OF as follows:

2018: Upton, Trout, Calhoun

2019: Upton, Trout, Calhoun or Hermosillo/Jones

2020: Jones, Trout, Upton

2021: Trout, Jones, Adell/Marsh; Upton as DH

2022: Trout, Jones, Adell/Marsh; Upton as DH

 

 

[Inside Pitch]

5 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Or how about Claudell Washington?

Nah screw that. Ellis Valentine FTW. 

Man..... Ellis Valentine was garbage when he got to Anaheim but good Lord did he have a cannon for an arm....

[Angelsjunky]

Hosmer and Moustakas are exactly the type of players I'd stay away from. Some nice numbers from both, but their records aren't consistent, and given the lack of free agent options at their positions, both will be overpaid. In other words, they're both "buy high" candidates.

On the other hand, maybe GMs stay clear for that very reason and Eppler is able to grab one of them in February for a reasonable 3-4 year deal. I just don't think either is worth 5+ years.

[vladdy#27]

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

3-year averages: 
Hosmer: 159 games, .294/.359/.463/.822, 119 OPS+, 29 doubles, 23 home runs, 97 RBI, 61 walks, 115 strikeouts, 2.9 WAR annually. 
Player B: 155 games, .250/.362/.450/.813, 113 OPS+, 32 doubles, 25 home runs, 84 RBI, 98 walks, 105 strikeouts, 2.5 WAR annually. 

Player B is likely to cost $100m less.

Guessed Carlos Santana, checked to make sure and realized that he has quietly been an extremely consistent player since becoming a big leaguer. Averaging right around a 3 WAR every year since 2011, 150+ games each season, 20 plus HR, .350 OBP, .425-.450 slugging.

A 2-3 year deal for 30-45M would be pretty enticing 

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, vladdy#27 said:

Guessed Carlos Santana, checked to make sure and realized that he has quietly been an extremely consistent player since becoming a big leaguer. Averaging right around a 3 WAR every year since 2011, 150+ games each season, 20 plus HR, .350 OBP, .425-.450 slugging.

A 2-3 year deal for 30-45M would be pretty enticing 

Year in, year out, vs. LHP, vs. RHP, high leverage, low leverage, home, away, power, finesse, top of order, middle of order, 1st half, 2nd half, month by month....almost every split imaginable, he's around a .750-850 OPS. 

He's the definition of consistency and exactly the steady presence we need either right before or right after Pujols. His defense has improved a bit as well. He's mentioned Victor Martinez as someone he's looked up to and he feels like a bat that may improve with age. 

[totdprods]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Hosmer and Moustakas are exactly the type of players I'd stay away from. Some nice numbers from both, but their records aren't consistent, and given the lack of free agent options at their positions, both will be overpaid. In other words, they're both "buy high" candidates.

On the other hand, maybe GMs stay clear for that very reason and Eppler is able to grab one of them in February for a reasonable 3-4 year deal. I just don't think either is worth 5+ years.

I think the Angels could get Carlos Santana for 1B and Asdrubal Cabrera for 3B and spend less than either Moustakas or Hosmer will cost. 

3-year averages: 
Hosmer: 159 games, .294/.359/.463/.822, 119 OPS+, 29 doubles, 23 home runs, 97 RBI, 61 walks, 115 strikeouts, 2.9 WAR annually. 
Santana: 155 games, .250/.362/.450/.813, 113 OPS+, 32 doubles, 25 home runs, 84 RBI, 98 walks, 105 strikeouts, 2.5 WAR annually. 

Moustakas**: 145 games, .256/.311/.451/.761, 103 OPS+, 26 doubles, 25 home runs, 74 RBI, 37 walks, 81 strikeouts, 2.2 WAR annually
Asdrubal Cabrera: 140 games, .275/.334/.447/.780, 110 OPS+, 30 doubles, 2 triples, 17 home runs, 60 RBI, 41 walks, 98 strikeouts, 1.8 WAR annually.
**I omitted his '16 injury-shortened campaign and added his 2014 instead.

Yeah, you can argue that Hosmer and Moustakas are entering their prime while Cabrera and Santana are on their way out, but you're saving enormous amounts of money and years committed, and neither have experienced any real decline.

[vladdy#27]

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Year in, year out, vs. LHP, vs. RHP, high leverage, low leverage, home, away, power, finesse, top of order, middle of order, 1st half, 2nd half, month by month....almost every split imaginable, he's around a .750-850 OPS. 

He's the definition of consistency and exactly the steady presence we need either right before or right after Pujols. His defense has improved a bit as well. He's mentioned Victor Martinez as someone he's looked up to and he feels like a bat that may improve with age. 

I think having him in front of Trout would be interesting. First off Trout would have someone on base at least 35% of the time. He'd also get a lot more pitches to hit

2-3-4 of Santana-Trout-Upton

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, vladdy#27 said:

I think having him in front of Trout would be interesting. First off Trout would have someone on base at least 35% of the time. He'd also get a lot more pitches to hit

2-3-4 of Santana-Trout-Upton

Works for me too. Cleveland has had him lead off quite a bit. Can play 3B or corner outfield in a pinch too. Santana can really work the count too, get Gordon in front of him and you'll likely have someone on base or in scoring position, or both, for Trout and Upton.

That's what I like about him. He can hit anywhere in any situation in any ballpark in any situation and stays consistent throughout the year.

[VariousCrap]

31 minutes ago, vladdy#27 said:

Guessed Carlos Santana, checked to make sure and realized that he has quietly been an extremely consistent player since becoming a big leaguer. Averaging right around a 3 WAR every year since 2011, 150+ games each season, 20 plus HR, .350 OBP, .425-.450 slugging.

A 2-3 year deal for 30-45M would be pretty enticing 

The huge difference here is age.  Hosmer is 28 and Santana is 31.  The odds are that Santana starts to decline sooner.  

 

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

The huge difference here is age.  Hosmer is 28 and Santana is 31.  The odds are that Santana starts to decline sooner.  

 

Unless he's Victor Martinez Part Two.

[Angelsfirst]

Couldn’t be happier about this. What a great last day or so. Doggies lose and now this. Welcome back to the Angels Justin. 

[vladdy#27]

1 hour ago, VariousCrap said:

The huge difference here is age.  Hosmer is 28 and Santana is 31.  The odds are that Santana starts to decline sooner.  

 

That difference will be made up in the length and cost of the contract. Hosmer will get 5-7 years at 100M-140M whereas Santana will get 2-4 years at 30-45M. So you’d be paying more for a just as likely, if not more likely, declining Hosmer at the back end up that deal

[VariousCrap]

56 minutes ago, vladdy#27 said:

That difference will be made up in the length and cost of the contract. Hosmer will get 5-7 years at 100M-140M whereas Santana will get 2-4 years at 30-45M. So you’d be paying more for a just as likely, if not more likely, declining Hosmer at the back end up that deal

A three year deal for Santana would be fine.  Maybe with a team option for a fourth year with a one million dollar buy out.  Anything more is most likely a mistake.

Edited To Add:

Hosmer is 28 years old.  A 5-7 year deal for him is more than fair.  My guess is he will get what Upton got with the Tigers with the same opt out option.  For what he brings, he is worth it.

[VariousCrap]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Unless he's Victor Martinez Part Two.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Hosmer and Moustakas are exactly the type of players I'd stay away from. Some nice numbers from both, but their records aren't consistent, and given the lack of free agent options at their positions, both will be overpaid. In other words, they're both "buy high" candidates.

On the other hand, maybe GMs stay clear for that very reason and Eppler is able to grab one of them in February for a reasonable 3-4 year deal. I just don't think either is worth 5+ years.

The only KC hitter I'd consider is Cain, and he seems completely unnecessary given what we have.

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Are you sure? AAV means the entire contact is averaged over the entire length of the contract. So the AAV should the same in 2018 as in 2022. If not it doesn't make sense to me.

The AAV was $22m for 2018-2021, it's now $21m for 2018-2022. So in 2022 it went from $0 to $21m

[Jeff Fletcher]

An exec from another team today told me Upton's new deal is pretty close to what his open market value would have been.

Which I why I thought all along there was a good chance of him staying. There just wasn't some huge pot of (extra) gold out there waiting for him if he left. 

Both sides wanted this to happen. And the difference between what he was already guaranteed and what he'd make as a free agent was so small that it wasn't going to prevent a deal with the Angels. 

[Ohtaniland]

17 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

An exec from another team today told me Upton's new deal is pretty close to what his open market value would have been.

Which I why I thought all along there was a good chance of him staying. There just wasn't some huge pot of (extra) gold out there waiting for him if he left. 

Both sides wanted this to happen. And the difference between what he was already guaranteed and what he'd make as a free agent was so small that it wasn't going to prevent a deal with the Angels. 

Yep he had a solid deal already in place. It would’ve been difficult to match or improve on the open market. He and the Angels made a wise decision. 

[disarcina]

Seems expensive to me but then that's what these guys costs these days.

Upton has some power and shores up our OF.

Locks him up through 2022 -- let's just hope he produces and stays healthy.

[aznhockeyguy]

Good deal for both sides.  Finally a LF that won't be a black hole offensively anymore.  We can all be excited about signings and trades, but probably the best thing the Angels can do is stop playing Albert Pujols every day. It's a no cost move that would significantly improve the team.  Of course, the Angels won't do it.  Even if they do have to play him, PLEASE stop putting him in the top 5 spots.  He's a bottom of the order bat now.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

The AAV was $22m for 2018-2021, it's now $21m for 2018-2022. So in 2022 it went from $0 to $21m

And in 2022 Albert comes off the books so we are still $4M ahead. It didn't actually go from zero in 2022 because someone would have to play LF and they would have been paid.

[totdprods]

3 hours ago, VariousCrap said:

VMart and Santana are pretty comparable players - switch hitters who had excellent discipline and no real weaknesses in their offensive game. VMart was a little better at putting the ball in play, while Santana is a bit more of a free swinger with better plate discipline and power, but both throughout their careers walked as many times as they struck out. 

Age 29-31:

VMart: 118 G, .298/.362/.462/.823, 118 OPS+, 27 doubles, 15 HR, 74 RBI, 46 BB, 53 K, 2.6 WAR

Santana: 155 G, .250/.362/.450/.813, 113 OPS+, 32 doubles, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 98 BB, 105 K, 2.5 WAR

VMart's next three years, aged 32-35 (He missed one entire season with injury): 152 G, .321/.381/.487/.868, 138 OPS+, 36 doubles, 19 HR, 96 RBI, 57 BB, 52 K, 3.3 WAR

VMart took it to a whole other level in his mid-30s - power went up, average went up,  he even walked more than he struck out. Yes, his two big seasons bookended an entire year missed and a mediocre year, but overall he was one of baseball's best hitters, and Santana's skill set parallels VMart nicely.

I think Santana, 'hidden' in a lineup with other solid bats, could see a comparable curve to what VMart experienced.

[totdprods]

The other big advantage Santana brings, to me, is certainty. 

Yeah, you may be able to get Duda, Alonso, or LoMo or maybe even Bruce on a lesser deal, but all have had fine seasons and all have had shit seasons recently. Even their best seasons aren't far from a typical Santana season.

Cron? Valbuena? You can lump them into the same category above. Yeah, they could put up a better year, but just as likely they fall well short.

Hosmer? Folks have already pointed out that his pre-'17 offensive numbers were really no better than Cron's. I agree that he's probably trending up, but no one can that say there isn't risk. 

1B isn't really a need for the Angels. Other needs are far more pressing. But if you wanted to solidify 1B and definitively upgrade there for a reasonable price and do so with total confidence? Santana is the clear choice. That gives you a little more wiggle room with whatever your options wind up being at 3B and 2B.

[Docwaukee]

This is a very solid deal.  

There is always risk with any contract over 100m but if free agents cost 8-9 mil per WAR then he needs about 12 total WAR which is about 2.5 WAR per year.  I think that's pretty reasonable.  

I also think Upton is a better defender than he showed for the halos.  Good base runner.  Good power.  Good OBP.  

He's just a good baseball player.  Something that hasn't been present in LF for the Angels in a looooong time.