Meyer done for 2018

[Angelsfirst]

27 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Bumgarner is an extreme example - several other dominant workhorse types have also been inconsistent in the playoffs. 

A rotation full of #3 types have also won WS such as '02 and '05. So sometimes simply durability and solid production gets the job done. 

We won in 05'? I would say winning it all in 02' with our starting pitching staff was more of an anomaly. Plus this current staff doesn't have durability. 

 I know what you're saying, you don't always need an "ace" to win it all, but I'd much rather have one than not, if the price and years are right. Especially with all the question marks in this rotation. 

[Angelsfirst]

Btw I have no idea why it made the text larger. I copied and pasted my reply because I forget to quote who I was responding to and it enlarged the text. 

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Angelsfirst said:

We won in 05'? I would say winning it all in 02' with our starting pitching staff was more of an anomaly. Plus this current staff doesn't have durability. 

The White Sox won in '05 with a rotation of really solid mid-rotation types.

The TORP guys are great and definitely offer a safer bet, but only if you can afford to acquire them - best bet is developing them. Remember the storied rotation the Phillies had a few years back with Halladay, Hamels, Lee, Oswalt? The Nats rotation that has yet to make it to the WS?

Given how much those guys cost to acquire, either in trade or money, and how much payroll they can eat up, I just don't think it's the most feasible strategy right now. Angels best/easiest/safest route in immediate future is hoping for that '05 type White Sox rotation .

[stormngt]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

The White Sox won in '05 with a rotation of really solid mid-rotation types.

Their rotation dominated in the WS.

[stormngt]

10 minutes ago, Angelsfirst said:

We won in 05'? I would say winning it all in 02' with our starting pitching staff was more of an anomaly. Plus this current staff doesn't have durability. 

 I know what you're saying, you don't always need an "ace" to win it all, but I'd much rather have one than not, if the price and years are right. Especially with all the question marks in this rotation. 

You can when without an ace if you have a dominant bullpen and depth.  We had that in 2002 and the royals had that in 2015.

[GrittyVeterans]

We've now reached a point where most of our arms have sustained too many injuries to be counted on for next year. 

You have Barria next year who might be able to be the #5. Bridwell deserves a look. But other than that, I think we have to kind of start from scratch. There's just no way you can count.on Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, and Meyer given all their arm problems

[Angelsfirst]

21 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The White Sox won in '05 with a rotation of really solid mid-rotation types.

They had Garland and Buehrle. Both of whom were amongst the best pitchers in the league that year and what you would call dominant, front end of the rotation guys. 

Also in 05' we had an ace in Bartolo who won the Cy Young that year. Who knows how things would've turned out had he not gone down in game 5 of the ALDS. 

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

We've now reached a point where most of our arms have sustained too many injuries to be counted on for next year. 

You have Barria next year who might be able to be the #5. Bridwell deserves a look. But other than that, I think we have to kind of start from scratch. There's just no way you can count.on Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, and Meyer given all their arm problems

You can add Ramirez and Smith to that list too. Not sure if you can count on Shoemaker the same way either.

[totdprods]

Just now, Angelsfirst said:

They had Garland and Buehrle. Both of whom were amongst the best pitchers in the league that year and what you would call dominant, top end of the rotation guys. 

Also in 05' we had an ace in Bartolo who won the Cy Young that year. Who knows how things would've turned out had he not gone down in game 5 of the ALDS. 

Wasn't referring to the Angels '05 rotation. Bartolo was an ace that year no doubt.

Jon Garland and Mark Buerhle are good pitchers and they had excellent years, yes, but neither are guys you expect TORP production from year in, year out. They were much like Washburn or Santana or Ortiz having a superb year. 

And that's sort of the point I'm making - these mid-rotation guys aren't as expensive as Price, Greinke, Sabathia, Darvish, Arrieta, etc. but they're still capable of putting up the type of production a #1-2 guy can in any given year. 

Rather than committing a boatload of money, or prospects, to one TORP who may or may make the difference, I'd rather see the Angels go middle of the road, nab a couple of the most reliable #3-4 types you can find for the best price, use that to anchor the rotation, hope Skaggs or Heaney or Richards emerges as a trio of #2s (their upside) and use your depth for AAA, injuries, bullpen, trade bait. 

For the price of one Darvish/Arrieta, you can snag a mid-tier SP, a flier one year starter, and an everyday position player. We have needs for all those.

[totdprods]

There's one other big plus that the Richards, Shoemaker, Heaney, Skaggs, Meyer, Bridwell, Ramirez, Scribner, Smith, Barria, and Tropeano offer aside from having some untapped upside; for the most part, as a whole, this is a really cheap and controllable group. Your rotation, and if you use them for depth in the bullpen, won't cost a lot.

Paying a guy or two like Nolasco or Lance Lynn or Tyler Chatwood or Miguel Gonzalez or Alex Cobb or Chris Tillman $8, $10, $12, $16m, $18m a year isn't too bad when the rest of your guys are that cheap still.

[Tank]

50 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The White Sox won in '05 with a rotation of really solid mid-rotation types.

The TORP guys are great and definitely offer a safer bet, but only if you can afford to acquire them - best bet is developing them. Remember the storied rotation the Phillies had a few years back with Halladay, Hamels, Lee, Oswalt? The Nats rotation that has yet to make it to the WS?

Given how much those guys cost to acquire, either in trade or money, and how much payroll they can eat up, I just don't think it's the most feasible strategy right now. Angels best/easiest/safest route in immediate future is hoping for that '05 type White Sox rotation .

we don't have the money to spend to get a rotation like those you've mentioned. it'd be great but it's out of reach.

i'd rather see one bonfafide stud with four very solid mid-rotation types and a great bullpen. i wouldn't touch darvish - he's been pretty ineffective with the dodgers and he's had a significant injury. i'd lobby hard for arrieta. sign him, keep upton and phillips, and add where else is needed, and the remaining trout years won't be wasted.

it's like going to thanksgiving at, well, at my house, wondering what kind of tofurkey i'm going to serve you when what you really want is a nice big meaty turkey leg.

[Angelsfirst]

RE: totdprods...

I agree about Garland and Buehrle. Even though they weren't paid like aces, they both pitched like aces that year.

I'm not completely opposed to taking your less risk approach. Who knows, maybe it would ultimately be better in the long run. 

I just still would like to see Eppler at least make a competitive offer for one of these top free agent SP, particularly Darvish. 

Like I said, I'm aware these huge contracts are always a gamble and rarely pay off in the long run. But on the other hand I'd still rather spend big on pitching more than anything, especially with how fragile our starting pitching staff has been and has the potential to be. We'll see how Eppler approaches this offseason. 

[happybat4]

Buehrle was pretty good. His career War is higher than Trout. Didn't he only allow something ridiculous like 3 stolen bases in 10 years. 

[totdprods]

The way I see you, you have a trio of guys who truly have the ability to pitch at a #2 or very good #3 level. You may even get a #1-type season out of any one of them. Richards, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Heaney. You have a second group of guys who should give you production at least a level similar to a Miguel Gonzalez or Ricky Nolasco. This is Parker Bridwell, J.C. Ramirez, Nick Tropeano, Nate Smith, Jaime Barria. Maybe a couple move up a tier, maybe a couple move down a tier.

What is alarming is that every single one of those guys missed significant time in '17 or '18, with the exception of Bridwell and Barria. When you add the injury concerns and likely innings limits most of these guys will face, you really don't have a single guy that you can expect 30 GS from next year, regardless of where they slot in.

The 2005 White Sox used six SP all season. That's it. 
The 2002 Angels used eight SP all season - #5 was Callaway (6), Schoeneweis (15), and Shields (1) until Lackey came out of the gate.
The 2015 Royals? Buoyed by four starters who made 24+ starts with a collective ERA of 4.42. Don't like ERA? The FIP was 4.36. ERA+? 98.
Their staff ace were led by Edinson Volquez (3.55 ERA), signed on a two year, $17m deal.

I'm not going to deny that, obviously, when your rotation is pitching well and healthy, you'll use less starters over the course of a year. The data has been far too vast and ambiguous for me to boil it down to something digestible, but I've seen a correlation between number of SPs used by winning teams, both Angels winning teams over the years, and other division/World Series winners, even if there was a #4 or #5 sucking up the joint on the back-end with 24 GS of 4.50-5.00 ERA ball. 

I know that he doesn't have a crystal ball and any pitcher can get hurt, but Eppler needs to do all he can (and I think he has been) to slot two guys into the '18 rotation that should give you 25 GS and a mid-4 ERA. Virtually any past winning Angels team, division winner, or WS winner has had at least that, and I can't safely say there is anyone on the Angels pitching staff right now that fits the bill. 

[Angel Oracle]

5 hours ago, greginpsca said:

For him and a few others on the staff to be serviceable, the Org might have to build up the outfield walls to 60 feet high.

I love it, the Red Monster.

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, Blarg said:

Game 7 of the 2016 World Series the Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks lasted 4.2 innings. Cleveland's Cory Kluber went 4. 

Only two pitchers lasted six innings during the series, Kluber and Lester. No other pitcher made it to the 5th.

This

Kluber was a workhorse (around 7 innings per start) during the 2016 season, but only averaged about 5 2/3 innings per start in the 2016 post-season.  

[HaloMilliVanilli]

13 hours ago, greginpsca said:

For him and a few others on the staff to be serviceable, the Org might have to build up the outfield walls to 60 feet high.

Maybe we could trade to pitch at the Nights Watch (GoT reference).  That wall should be high enough.

What about trade rather than free agency.  Would Kole Calhoun with a minor league prospect fetch a reliable, younger starter with some MLB experience and a clean Carfax report?

[HaloMilliVanilli]

I wouldn't mind someone like Chris Archer or Michael Wacha.  Don't know what it would take, what their contracts look like, or if their current clubs would have the impetus to move them.  If we could acquire someone like them for Calhoun or CJ Cron and lesser prospects (or a better prospect package for a better starter), I'd be on board and maybe a better solution than signing a 30-something to $25+ million a year.  As has been previously stated, however, it's not my $$$.

[Angel Oracle]

Trading Calhoun in the off-season can only proceed if Hermosillo is truly ready to play up here.    Even then, can Hermosillo play in RF with his arm?   Even then two, they still would have to hope that Upton doesn't opt out, a big hope.

[totdprods]

I would imagine if Upton stays, it's more likely OF prospects go for pitching than Calhoun, unless there's a budget FA OF (or some insane Stanton scenario) out there that they really like as a replacement.

[HaloMilliVanilli]

In my scenario, I made an assumption that either Upton would opt-in or he would renegotiate a slightly better deal with us to secure him.  I guess if Upton is retained we don't need all of the minor league OF depth so trading Calhoun isn't necessary to achieve the goal.

[Erstad Grit]

I wanted nova last year for these reasons.  I'm thinking stroman would be a guy I'd want eppler to pursue.