Assessing the AL Wild Card Race

[Torridd]

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/252778518/ranking-al-wild-card-race-lineup-pitching-odds?partnerId=ed-11900845-1016792933

[Troll Daddy]

I approve of the writers prediction

[totdprods]

Really hope they can win the series or sweep the M's this weekend. It's going to be a huge series for both teams. After the Seattle series, it's twelve straight against Houston, Texas, and Cleveland. Gonna need every win we can muster in Seattle and during that stretch.

Bright side, Seattle has the same stretch - 16 straight against the Angels, Rangers, Astros, and Cleveland. If we can keep them in place this weekend, they're probably doomed with that coming up.

[Angel Oracle]

Winning (not sweeping) the series vs Seattle (twice), Tejas, and ChiSox, and going 4-5 against Houston/Cleveland would give the Halos a 13-9 finish and 85-77 record. 

Would that be enough for the 2nd WC spot?    

[Torridd]

I think it would be.

[totdprods]

37 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Winning (not sweeping) the series vs Seattle (twice), Tejas, and ChiSox, and going 4-5 against Houston/Cleveland would give the Halos a 13-9 finish and 85-77 record. 

Would that be enough for the 2nd WC spot?    

I'm going to say no.
We'd need the Twins to do worse than 13-9 in their 23 remaining games to get ahead of them at this point. 

14 of their games are on the road (they have a .552 WP% on the road) and 12 of those games come against San Diego, Detroit, and Toronto (combined .430 second half WP%)

I actually think the Angels have a better shot at the catching the Yankees - of their remaining 24 games (and only one more off-day) all come against wild-card rivals except 6 against Toronto. The problem? Yankees still have two wins on us still, AND if they start losing a lot of their remaining games, that means someone like Kansas City, Tampa, or Baltimore will be right on our heels. Hopefully the Mariners and Rangers can cannibalize each other and the Astros and Athletics play them tough as well - any loss those teams can deal Tex or Sea is huge right now.

I think the Angels will need to pull off another sweep or two and at best go 4-5 against Cle/Hou. I think something closer to 15-7 is needed. Fortunately, they close with 7 against the White Sox and Mariners (who could be done by then) and if they can pull off a 6-1 in that stretch I think they'll be okay. 

 

[Torridd]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I'm going to say no.
We'd need the Twins to do worse than 13-9 in their 23 remaining games to get ahead of them at this point. 

14 of their games are on the road (they have a .552 WP% on the road) and 12 of those games come against San Diego, Detroit, and Toronto (combined .430 second half WP%)

I actually think the Angels have a better shot at the catching the Yankees - of their remaining 24 games (and only one more off-day) all come against wild-card rivals except 6 against Toronto. The problem? Yankees still have two wins on us still, AND if they start losing a lot of their remaining games, that means someone like Kansas City, Tampa, or Baltimore will be right on our heels. Hopefully the Mariners and Rangers can cannibalize each other and the Astros and Athletics play them tough as well - any loss those teams can deal Tex or Sea is huge right now.

I think the Angels will need to pull off another sweep or two and at best go 4-5 against Cle/Hou. I think something closer to 15-7 is needed. Fortunately, they close with 7 against the White Sox and Mariners (who could be done by then) and if they can pull off a 6-1 in that stretch I think they'll be okay. 

 

Interesting synopsis. 15-7 sounds a bit of a height to reach. We would need our starting pitching to really give us a lift.

[totdprods]

24 minutes ago, Torridd said:

Interesting synopsis. 15-7 sounds a bit of a height to reach. We would need our starting pitching to really give us a lift.

It is a tall order. It's easy for us to fixate on the Yankees, Twins, and even Rangers and Mariners right now, but Baltimore, Tampa, and Kansas are so close still that the orders could almost be reversed in a week, and with so many of these teams playing each other to close the year, any sweep by any team could change the entire complexion.

The two losses in Texas last week, and three to them in Anaheim the week before, really, really hurt us. It had the same negative impact to the team's chances that our sweeps against Seattle, Philly, and Oakland in August did for us positively. Had those sweeps not happened, we'd be in serious trouble. Those wins bought us a lot of wiggle room, which unfortunately, we gave away recently to Texas. 

I think we need to sweep one of the remaining Seattle series, win at least one of the Houston series, not get swept in the other or against Cleveland, and win the Texas and White Sox series. That'd mean a 14-8 end, but it should 1) stave off Seattle and Texas and 2) be strong enough to make it very difficult for Kansas, Baltimore, or Tampa to leap-frog us 3) and if they do, it'd likely mean New York or Minnesota suffered enough losses along the way to get us over them.

[totdprods]

This weekend..
The Angels will draw the Mariners for three - ideally, they take at least two of three to keep Seattle at bay, if not push them to the brink.
The Rangers and Yankees face off - really any outcome here is beneficial for the Angels. 
The Twins and Royals have four games - a split or Royals series win here would be best. Don't want Kansas City to get too close (only 2 games behind Angels right now)
Orioles are in Cleveland for three, and they've been awful on the road. And Cleveland has won like 30 straight games or something.

After that...
Angels get three at home against Houston. Again, at least 2 of three here would be best, but even 1 of 3 wouldn't be too damaging.
Rangers and Mariners play four. A split would be best for the Angels - it would in effect just waste away games for Tex/Sea.
Yankees get three against Tampa.
Minnesota gets two against San Diego.
Orioles are in Toronto  for three. 

[Angel Dog and Beer]

Anyone know what are the tiebreakers if multiple teams are tied for the 2nd wildcard? This could become a mess. 

[Dick B Back]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/59527184/playoff-tiebreaker-rules/

[eligrba]

I like that the Angels can control their own destiny if they just keep winning.

[Angel Oracle]

I'm #]%^}#% tired of %{%*## Elvis Andrus!!!!

[fan_since79]

This race might come down to us having to sweep our final seven games against the woeful White Sox and these Mariners.

I can imagine that scenario. Nolasco will start at least one of those games, maybe two.

[DMVol]

I still think 9 w/ Houston and Cleveland, the two best teams in the league, is a killer....

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, DMVol said:

I still think 9 w/ Houston and Cleveland, the two best teams in the league, is a killer....

Seattle gets 6 with Houston and Cleveland (and are 4 GB) so they face virtually as tall a task as we do. 
Texas has it a bit easier - they only have 3 remaining against Houston and they get 14 games between Seattle/Oakland still - 7 games apiece.

New York and Minnesota still have one three-game series against each other starting Sept. 18th, so there will be some WC cannibalization to come. Almost all of NYY's remaining games come against teams still in the WC hunt - if NYY struggles, Kansas, Tampa, or Baltimore roar right back into this - but it'll bring NYY closer to the Halos/AL West teams. 

Angels really just need to keep winning series - 2 out of 3 isn't bad. They could even afford to go 1 out of 3 if they pull off a sweep again somewhere once or twice.


 

[Lou]

19 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Texas has it a bit easier - they only have 3 remaining against Houston and they get 14 games between Seattle/Oakland still - 7 games apiece.

Texas is 10-14 vs Oakland and Seattle this year 

[totdprods]

32 minutes ago, Lou said:

Texas is 10-14 vs Oakland and Seattle this year 

Meant it as in they don't have to go through multiple series of Houston/Cleveland buzzsaw like the Angels or Mariners do. 

Texas has also been better at home (.559 WP% in Arlington, .458% WP away) and they have 13 at home still (including all of their remaining games against NYY and Houston), with only 9 away. 

The Rangers record against Oakland and Seattle is the only real encouraging bit for us Angels fans to have hope in. That and the Rangers only having one remaining off-day (Sept. 18) before wrapping up with 13 games straight.

[Lou]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

That and the Rangers only having one remaining off-day (Sept. 18) before wrapping up with 13 games straight

I was going to say that's brutal, then I looked at our schedule. After Monday, we're in the same boat 

[gurn67]

I wonder if a team has ever made the post season, in a non-strike shortened season, without even one pitcher with 12 wins.

[eligrba]

It would be a victory for the Angels to end the season without a complete collapse at this point.

[totdprods]

Still 2 GB, somehow. 

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, eligrba said:

It would be a victory for the Angels to end the season without a complete collapse at this point.

+1

2001 comes to mind, team inexplicably in the WC hunt falls apart in September that year