Cowart's Big Night

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Almost 3000 at bats in the minors, with a .264 average and lots of other pedestrian yawning stats.

Why look at what he did 5 years ago and ignore the last three?  He has turn it around, plus he plays a terrific third base,with mid 90s throw across the diamond. You know what they what have you done lately. He has done plenty lately. He couldn't be any worse than Espinosa has been this year.

[Dtwncbad]

5 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Why look at what he did 5 years ago and ignore the last three?  He has turn it around, plus he plays a terrific third base,with mid 90s throw across the diamond. You know what they what have you done lately. He has done plenty lately. He couldn't be any worse than Espinosa has been this year.

I'm not ignoring it.  He is hitting well.

The question us what is more likely?

We just lucked into Josh Donaldson?

Or. . .I've seen lots of guys at 25 or 26 "click" at AAA and prove to be someone that just can't make that last jump?

What is unfair or out of context in my concern? (And subsequent lack of peeing my pants optimism with this guy)

[Blarg]

3 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Why look at what he did 5 years ago and ignore the last three?  He has turn it around, plus he plays a terrific third base,with mid 90s throw across the diamond. You know what they what have you done lately. He has done plenty lately. He couldn't be any worse than Espinosa has been this year.

Not being any worse than Espinosa is not an endorsement. For Cowart to move into the lineup one spot has to open. That means either option Cron or DFA one of Valbuena, Espinosa or Pennington. 

Espinosa may have loosened the noose around his neck by hitting .260./275/.440/.715 for the month of June. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

A couple of years ago Escobar went on the DL for a few weeks, Cowart got to play regularly at 3B, I think it took him 4 games to get his first hit, a HR, and after that he went 8 for 26 and hit .308 with 4 BB until Yunel returned. After that he only played as a defensive replacement with only occasional AB.

It was a small sample size but that's he was given. He needs to be given regular AB so they can tell for sure if AAA is a fluke or not. I think next season he will be on the Angels in at least a bench player. I think he has earned a chance to see what he is capable of with regular ABs. I am just not confident that Scioscia/Eppler will give it to him.

How long before he becomes a minor league FA.

[Dtwncbad]

Don't anybody misinterpret that I am pulling for him to fail. . .

I want him to be good.  Just concerned that late bloomers often don't really make it.

And this guy was a first rounder. Unfortunately he is one of the people that get notived in terma of the Angel farm system shortcomings of late.

 

[Angel Oracle]

59 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Not being any worse than Espinosa is not an endorsement. For Cowart to move into the lineup one spot has to open. That means either option Cron or DFA one of Valbuena, Espinosa or Pennington. 

Espinosa may have loosened the noose around his neck by hitting .260./275/.440/.715 for the month of June. 

+1

 I would play Cowart at 2B for the rest of the AAA season, and then have him compete for the 2B starting job in ST. 

[ettin]

Kaleb Cowart currently has 99 days of MLB service time. Every player must accrue a full 6 years of service time in order to hit free agency. The maximum number of days a MLB player can accrue in a season is 172 days (which is equivalent to one full year).

In order for the Angels to gain a year of control over Cowart (if that is there goal) they must avoid allowing him to accrue more than 72 (172 days - 99 days = 73 days) days. So if you count backwards you get the following: The season ends on October 1st so that is 1 day. September has 30 days so we are now at a total of 31 days. August has 31 days so we are now at 62 days. Walking back from July 31st by the remaining 10 days (72-62=10) puts his earliest call up date as July 22nd. Notably if this is what happens and Cowart stays up in the Majors from that day onward his chances of becoming a Super Two player are high.

The reason they are considering him at 2B more so than 3B is that they probably are concerned about his offensive potential and the fact that he can play reasonably good defense at the keystone and the bar for offensive output at 2B is lower than it is at 3B are contributing factors to this move. So far in 2017 League 2B have produced an average wRC+ of 94 versus League 3B who have produced wRC+ of 97. Cowart is currently at a wRC+ of 129 in AAA. If he can simply meet or exceed League average in the Majors I think the Angels would be happy assuming his defense is above average as well.

Of course this would also be a great time for the Angels to trade Kaleb too. His value is up-ticking again and there is a legitimate concern, based on past history, of him being able to perform at the highest level as soon as he is called up. It may be in the Angels best interest of competing in 2018 if Cowart was traded to a team where he doesn't have to excel immediately out of the gate.

The Angels thoughts and feelings on Kaleb seem a bit obscure. The only hint they have given is by having him play 2B so much which leads me to believe they will give him a shot to win the job in about a month.

Either way I hope he does well I met him in Arkansas after a game and I could tell he was a bit down (he was 0-4 that night). This recent streak he has been on since last year is good for his future as a big League player so that is great for him.

[Troll Daddy]

Looks like he found a home

[stormngt]

8 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

For 3 years now he has hit .323, .280, .321 in AAA. How many years does it take to erase a couple of bad seasons in AA 5 years ago.

Wouldn't that be called a large sample size?

[stormngt]

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

I'm not ignoring it.  He is hitting well.

The question us what is more likely?

We just lucked into Josh Donaldson?

Or. . .I've seen lots of guys at 25 or 26 "click" at AAA and prove to be someone that just can't make that last jump?

What is unfair or out of context in my concern? (And subsequent lack of peeing my pants optimism with this guy)

How about giving him consistent playing time to see if he can make the jump?

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 minute ago, stormngt said:

Wouldn't that be called a large sample size?

Never said it wasn't. I said when he subbed for Escobar in 2015 for 18 or so games that was a small sample size, reread it.

[AngelsLakersFan]

8 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

A couple of years ago Escobar went on the DL for a few weeks, Cowart got to play regularly at 3B, I think it took him 4 games to get his first hit, a HR, and after that he went 8 for 26 and hit .308 with 4 BB until Yunel returned. After that he only played as a defensive replacement with only occasional AB.

It was a small sample size but that's he was given. He needs to be given regular AB so they can tell for sure if AAA is a fluke or not. I think next season he will be on the Angels in at least a bench player. I think he has earned a chance to see what he is capable of with regular ABs. I am just not confident that Scioscia/Eppler will give it to him.

How long before he becomes a minor league FA.

I am a fan of Cowart, it's just that his numbers in AAA are just not quite impressive enough. I think what the organization is seeing is a guy who has finally taken it to the next level, and become a borderline major leaguer. As I've said before, I think before we see him make a real turn into a major league quality player we will see him start to hit with more power in Salt Lake.

His current major league projection via Steamer: .238 /.294 /.345
 

[ettin]

29 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I am a fan of Cowart, it's just that his numbers in AAA are just not quite impressive enough. I think what the organization is seeing is a guy who has finally taken it to the next level, and become a borderline major leaguer. As I've said before, I think before we see him make a real turn into a major league quality player we will see him start to hit with more power in Salt Lake.

His current major league projection via Steamer: .238 /.294 /.345
 

ALF is correct I think about how they currently view him. If he cannot come up and perform sufficiently as needed we will all be complaining about the black hole of performance at 2B again in 2018. It seems like Kaleb's development path has just taken longer to develop than other players.

The bottom line is that teams in general don't like a high amount of variance in player performance. Cowart is doing great in the Minors but when you get to the Show it is make or break time. If Steamer thinks that is his projected line in the Majors right now it is not enough to be honest. Maybe it takes him a year or two of full-time in the Majors to show what he really has. Maybe he does great out of the gate. Who knows but that is the crux of the problem in a sense, that lack of surety of what version of Cowart we would get in 2018.

[Jeff Fletcher]

9 hours ago, ettin said:

Kaleb Cowart currently has 99 days of MLB service time. Every player must accrue a full 6 years of service time in order to hit free agency. The maximum number of days a MLB player can accrue in a season is 172 days (which is equivalent to one full year).

In order for the Angels to gain a year of control over Cowart (if that is there goal) they must avoid allowing him to accrue more than 72 (172 days - 99 days = 73 days) days. So if you count backwards you get the following: The season ends on October 1st so that is 1 day. September has 30 days so we are now at a total of 31 days. August has 31 days so we are now at 62 days. Walking back from July 31st by the remaining 10 days (72-62=10) puts his earliest call up date as July 22nd. Notably if this is what happens and Cowart stays up in the Majors from that day onward his chances of becoming a Super Two player are high.

The reason they are considering him at 2B more so than 3B is that they probably are concerned about his offensive potential and the fact that he can play reasonably good defense at the keystone and the bar for offensive output at 2B is lower than it is at 3B are contributing factors to this move. So far in 2017 League 2B have produced an average wRC+ of 94 versus League 3B who have produced wRC+ of 97. Cowart is currently at a wRC+ of 129 in AAA. If he can simply meet or exceed League average in the Majors I think the Angels would be happy assuming his defense is above average as well.

Of course this would also be a great time for the Angels to trade Kaleb too. His value is up-ticking again and there is a legitimate concern, based on past history, of him being able to perform at the highest level as soon as he is called up. It may be in the Angels best interest of competing in 2018 if Cowart was traded to a team where he doesn't have to excel immediately out of the gate.

The Angels thoughts and feelings on Kaleb seem a bit obscure. The only hint they have given is by having him play 2B so much which leads me to believe they will give him a shot to win the job in about a month.

Either way I hope he does well I met him in Arkansas after a game and I could tell he was a bit down (he was 0-4 that night). This recent streak he has been on since last year is good for his future as a big League player so that is great for him.

Did I just read a post in which the theory is the Angels are manipulating Kaleb Cowart's service time to get an extra year of control out of him?

[Adam]

He sucks

[Blarg]

11 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Did I just read a post in which the theory is the Angels are manipulating Kaleb Cowart's service time to get an extra year of control out of him?

You have to admit, it was well written.

[ettin]

15 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Did I just read a post in which the theory is the Angels are manipulating Kaleb Cowart's service time to get an extra year of control out of him?

LOL yes!

The only reason I even wrote it is because their plans for Cowart are so opaque it's hard to tell when and what they plan to use him for at the MLB level (or trade him). Also I was looking at the Service Time definition again for my Trade Series on a different player and I looked at this thread immediately after and felt compelled to use my re-found knowledge.

[Jeff Fletcher]

The simplest explanation is often the correct one.

They just don't think he's that good. 

[Lou]

3 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

Like Espinosa good?

That should tell us what they think of Cowart 

[Jeff Fletcher]

10 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

Like Espinosa good?

Espinosa is much much better defensively at 2B than Cowart and he's also proven he can hit at some level in the majors. Cowart has not. Also, they don't have the option of having Espinosa in AAA and they do with Cowart. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

26 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Espinosa is much much better defensively at 2B than Cowart and he's also proven he can hit at some level in the majors. Cowart has not. Also, they don't have the option of having Espinosa in AAA and they do with Cowart. 

Cowart is an excellent 3Bman, not sure how that transfers to 2B.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

29 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Espinosa is much much better defensively at 2B than Cowart and he's also proven he can hit at some level in the majors. Cowart has not. Also, they don't have the option of having Espinosa in AAA and they do with Cowart. 

Other than he has hit a few HR what has Espinosa proven he can hit at the major league level. He's a .220 hitter lifetime and can't even hit .180 this year. What he has proven is he can SO a lot.

[Jeff Fletcher]

10 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Other than he has hit a few HR what has Espinosa proven he can hit at the major league level. He's a .220 hitter lifetime and can't even hit .180 this year. What he has proven is he can SO a lot.

Cowart is a .176 hitter in the majors. Over 130ish PA's. That's not all-telling but it's something. 

How good exactly do you think he'd hit in the majors as an everyday player right now?

And it is enough to justify being inexperienced defensively?

[Blarg]

I guess the answer to that is are you moving forward with Cowart at third or second base next season?  If so, then he needs the playing time in the second half of this season. Both Espinosa and Escobar are free agents in 2018.

[Chuck]

11 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Cowart is a .176 hitter in the majors. Over 130ish PA's. That's not all-telling but it's something. 

How good exactly do you think he'd hit in the majors as an everyday player right now?

And it is enough to justify being inexperienced defensively?

Outside of that opening series with Oakland, I haven't seen Espinosa win too many ball games for this team. 

His defense is good but not good enough to mask his awful approach at the plate and zero productivity thereof. 

Cowart has been given just a handful of at bats, but not even a full season of them to get an idea that he can be a productive player. That said, other teams has given their club's respective top prospects way more chances than what Cowart has been given to date, so why not give him a shot?

He plays good defense, steals bases, has some pop and he's a switch hitter who knows how to take a walk, unlike Espinosa who has been the strikeout king in the AL.