AngelsWin.com Today: AngelsWin.com Top 30 Prospects: #10 LHP Nate Smith

[AngelsWin.com]

Prospect: Nate Smith                    Rank: 10

2015/16: 11                                      Position(s): Left Handed Pitcher

Level: AAA Salt Lake                       Age: Entering Age 25 season in 2017.

Height: 6’3”                                      Weight: 210 lb.

   Present – Future

Fastball          45  50

Slider             55  60

Curve             50  50

Change          60  60

Mechanics    60  60

Command    55  60

Control         55  60

Overall         45  55

 

Floor: Swing Starter or lefty specialist in MLB.

Ceiling: A workhorse #3/4 starter in MLB

Likely Outcome: A consistent #4/5 starter in MLB

Summary:  It’s been difficult for Nate Smith to get any love as a pitcher, which is unfortunate because there really isn’t much more he could’ve done up to this point.  Drafted in the 8th round out of very little known Furman University, Smith was tabbed as a finesse lefty.  And for the most part, that was true.  He came to the Angels throwing 86-89 with a decent curve and solid change up.  Since then, Smith has gotten stronger at every level.  Now his fastball sits 88-89, and on nights he’s feeling particularly good, he’ll throw 92-93. which would classify him as a hard throwing lefty.  His curve ball is still decent, but has since been surpassed in effectiveness by his slider, which at times can resemble a plus pitch.  The solid change up has also turned into a legitimate plus pitch.  All of this progression was accomplished while still maintaining his roots in attacking the strike zone.

Until this last season, Nate Smith had never once posted an ERA above 3.86 in the minor leagues. He even played for Team USA and led them to an eventual silver medal in the Pan-Am games.  Still, every talent evaluator doesn’t classify Smith as anything remarkable.  And that’s true, Smith isn’t a high upside pitcher.  He simply doesn’t have any real weakness to his game either, and that’s why he doesn’t get any love from big publications the way he should.  Smith is basically the Kole Calhoun of pitchers.  Nate’s just that pitcher other teams don’t have a ton of success against, but they also don’t remember why.  Well the truth is, Nate’s stuff isn’t that bad, and he spots his pitches in a manner that generates weak contact or swings and misses.

If the Angels were in any sort of contention last season, it’s likely Nate Smith would’ve been promoted.  But since they weren’t, and Nate was injured down the stretch (which also explains the poor showing in August he had), the Angels chose to play it safe and delay his promotion until 2017.  While Billy Eppler has done a solid job building depth around Nate Smith like Manny Banuelos, Victor Campos, Alex Meyer and Jesse Chavez, we can still expect to see Nate Smith with the Angels in some capacity in 2017.

What to expect next season: Nate was navigating the extremely hitter friendly environment in Salt Lake and the PCL until August, when I suspect Nate was injured and attempted to just pitch through it.  Smith can strike batters out, but for the most part he out-smarts them and allows hitters to get themselves out by keeping them off balance and hitting his spots.  If he continues this gameplay, we should see Smith in Anaheim by the all-star break, but regardless, I expect Nate Smith to break camp in AAA again.  But with all the uncertainty involving the Angels pitching staff, Smith finds himself in a free-for-all competition for the 5th starter spot and bullpen spots.  He’ll need to outpitch Alex Meyer, Manny Banuelos, Vicente Campos, Yusmeiro Petit, Brooks Pounders, Daniel Wright and more….  But he can do it, Smith has that capability to be sure.

Estimated Time of Arrival: 2017, as a 25 year old. .

Grade as a prospect: C+

 

Grades are given from the 20-80 scouting scale.  20-being non-existent ability, 80-being the best I’ve ever seen.  MLB average is 50.

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[Chuck]

Does anyone know if Nate is 100% healthy heading into ST? 

I wonder if he's in the mix for the 5th spot?

[Second Base]

I read something from Fletcher talking about him, supposedly he is healthy. I guess it was tendinitis and the best thing for that is simply rest. So he rested for at least a few months.

[tomsred]

He looked good today in the game against the Padres.  Threw a little over 40 pitches as well in his first Spring Training start.

[Angel Oracle]

Comp for the oldtimers in here?

Doug Rau?

[Second Base]

11 minutes ago, tomsred said:

He looked good today in the game against the Padres.  Threw a little over 40 pitches as well in his first Spring Training start.

I thought he looked good. It also looks like he cleaned some things up in his delivery since last season. Was more upright, stayed on top of the ball better. When he drops down it can create some deception, but I imagine it can take a toll after a while. He looked good, stayed relax, mixed all his pitches in. He threw like he knew he was competing for a spot on the major league roster. 

[totdprods]

Maybe a Joe Saunders-type career path? Nothing sexy, but steady enough to have some inflated counting stats if pitching on some good teams? He looked like a MLB pitcher in his brief appearance today.

I feel good about Eppler's approach to our pitching this offseason. Considerable risk - maybe enough to still ruin our season - but there's so much potential between our plethora of arms it could really be huge in the long run if we get even a couple panning out. For a team with so much need for cheap, high upside MLB-ready youth, it's well worth the gamble. 

[Second Base]

11 hours ago, totdprods said:

Maybe a Joe Saunders-type career path? Nothing sexy, but steady enough to have some inflated counting stats if pitching on some good teams? He looked like a MLB pitcher in his brief appearance today.

I feel good about Eppler's approach to our pitching this offseason. Considerable risk - maybe enough to still ruin our season - but there's so much potential between our plethora of arms it could really be huge in the long run if we get even a couple panning out. For a team with so much need for cheap, high upside MLB-ready youth, it's well worth the gamble. 

Yeah, Nate has looked pro ready for a couple years now. There's no hype because of the 90 mph fastball, plus he didn't go to a major college and to top it off, he comes from the Angels organization where prospects are largely ignored.

Smith is going to break into the majors and at some point he's going to be a solid #3/4 starter and everyone will say the same thing they did with Calhoun and Shoemaker: "This kid came out of nowhere."

It wasn't true with any of those guys and it won't be true with Smith. We knew, the rest of baseball was too busy ignoring the Angels minor league system to notice.

[Second Base]

6 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Well, to be honest, the way Shoemaker has pitched in the major leagues is pretty surprising, considering his minor league career was mediocre at best. I would say he kind of came out of no where. I mean, Shoemaker was not good in the minor leagues. Not many players are successful in the major leagues coming off the triple A seasons that Shoemaker had in the minors. He was a 5.65 ERA/4.95 FIP in 2012 and a 4.64 ERA/4.34 FIP in 2013. Shoemaker obviously figured something out to have pitched the way he has in the major leagues.

I remember discussing his poor performance with someone on this board back when he was in AAA. Whoever it was (IP perhaps), seemed to think the light air made it so his splitter would float in like a change up or slow fastball, and didn't drop at all. This was pre-humidifier. It matches up pretty well. 

I also remember a large contingent of AW fans, myself included, believing Shoemaker had earned a spot in 2014. 

So no, he didn't really come out of nowhere. He was on our radar since AA. Did we know he'd be this good? No, at least I didn't. But then again, most people didn't know Trout, Richards and Calhoun would all be this good.