AngelsWin.com Today: The Angels are better than their projections

[AngelsWin.com]

By Scotty Allen, AngelsWin.com Senior Columnist

By consensus, pretty much everyone agrees the Angels had a good offseason.  And depending on which projection system you subscribe to, the Angels will either be slightly better or marginally better than they were last season.  But looking at the construction of the team, there lies the possibility for so much more than anyone has foreseen.

The Rotation

The Angels are getting an ace back in Garrett Richards, but more than that, the Angels are getting a Garrett Richards back through stem cell therapy.  One report even said he has the ligaments of a 20 year old.  If that’s that case, and if we can use Bartolo Colon’s stem cell therapy as any point of reference, it’s possible the Angels just put a Cy Young candidate in the front of their rotation, because that’s how good Richards can be.  But after last season’s mash unit of a pitching staff, the Angels can’t stop at just Garrett Richards.  They’re getting a fully healthy, and breakout candidate in Tyler Skaggs.  There’s a reason he was a first round pick, Top 10 Prospect, and projected to be a top or middle of the rotation starter, and when you look at Skaggs arsenal, it’s every bit as good as it ever was.  If Skaggs makes good on any of that hype, the Angels could have a solid front of the rotation.  Matt Shoemaker isn’t expected to have any lasting effects from the line drive he took off the head last September, and appears to have settled in to his true form, as neither the #2 caliber starter from 2014, or the #4-5 starter from 2015.  Rather, Shoemaker looks like a steady #3 starter. Then there’s Ricky Nolasco, who was rejuvenated by a return to Southern California, which resulted in a 3.21 ERA across his final 11 starts.  To top it all off, the Angels could deploy any one of Alex Meyer, Jesse Chavez, Nate Smith, Vicente Campos, Manny Banuelos, or more as their fifth starter.  Chavez has had success in a major league rotation before, and Alex Meyer, though old for a prospect, has the stuff to emerge as a mid or even front of the rotation starter.  I can’t pretend these guys will be great, but what I can say is that there’s strength in numbers, and the Angels have quantity in their corner this season, which could lead to a quality candidate separating from the pack.

It wouldn’t take a miracle for the Angels to have a very good front five, and it would be ever so satisfying to watch ESPN and MLB Network try to make sense of that happening.  Mostly, I just think this potential rotation is a lot better than what it’s being portrayed as this offseason, which is a group of unknowns.

The Bullpen

This all starts with Huston Street.  For some reason, everyone and their grandma seems to have forgotten that in the last 5 years, Street has posted an ERA over 3.18 all of once, which just happened to be an injured season.  When he’s not injured,we’ve routinely seen an ERA in the two’s or even ones for the career closer.  It’s foolish to believe that Street somehow forgot how to be a dominant late inning force.  Then of course, there’s Cam Bedrosian, who has the bloodlines and octane to blow hitters away and offer a different look from the more crafty Street.  Then there’s Andrew Bailey to consider.  A once dominant closer himself, Bailey was injured in 2014, couldn’t shake the rust off in 2015 (which is normal), and couldn’t get his bearings in the NL in the first half os 2016.  He returns to the AL West, and suddenly Andrew Bailey is reaching back and touching 94 again, and looks every bit the reliever he used to be. Filling out the rest of the pen are J.C. Ramirez (98 mph fastball), Austin Adams (96 mph fastball), Mike Morin, Jose Alvarez,  and a slough of promising AAA arms that include Keynan Middleton, Eduardo Parades, Vicente Campos, John Lamb, Manny Banuelos, Bud Norris and Yusmeiro Petit.

It may be an open audition for bullpen spots, but from that group, the Angels should be able to find some combination of arms that can work.

The Offense

The Angels had a decent offense in 2016, good enough to win some ball games and remain middle of the pack.  They were right where they needed to be.  Now take that offense, replace Daniel Nava with Cam Maybin (who had a breakout 2016), Johnny Giavotella with Danny Espinosa (24 HR’s in 2016), sprinkle in Luis Valbuena (.816 OPS), Ben Revere (career .285 hitter with 41 SB per 162 games), and Martin Maldonado (.332 OBP in 2016) and suddenly the Angels offense could move from decent to flat out good.  And of course, no offensive section would be complete without mentioning Mike Trout…..so Mike Trout.

The Defense

By most measurements, the Angels were a good defensive unit in 2016.  By pretty much any measurement, the Angels should have one of the best, if not the best defensive unit in 2017.  Adding an elite pitch framer in Maldonado at catcher (combined with Gold Glove candidate Carlos Perez) should make Mike Scioscia giddy.  The Angels replaced a subpar defensive Johnny Giavotella in what is likely going to be the best defensive second baseman in baseball with Danny Espinosa.  You put Espinosa and Simmons in the middle of an infield, and you’re asking for a nightly highlight reel.  And then there’s Cameron Maybin in LF, and Ben Revere as the fourth outfielder.  Between those two, and Trout and Calhoun, fly balls in Angel Stadium should generally land in leather.

Logic

To quote Bull Durham, “This is a simple game.  You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball.  Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes it rains.”

The Angels appear to be in good position to throw (or pitch) the ball better than last year..  Their defense looks poised be elite, which would cover the whole “catch the ball” part off the equation.  And finally, with the new additions, the Angels should be quite good at hitting her ball this year.  Sometimes they’ll win, sometimes they’ll lose, and sometimes it’ll rain.

Logically speaking, I think it’s fair to say the Angels should be a pretty good ball club in 2017.

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[Second Base]

Any opportunity to quote Bull Durham in an article....

[Chuck]

14 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Any opportunity to quote Bull Durham in an article....

I saw that. 

Well done! 

Between @Dochalo & your articles I'm getting excited for Angels Baseball. 

[ettin]

8 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I saw that. 

Well done! 

Between @Dochalo & your articles I'm getting excited for Angels Baseball. 

Are you throwing shade? lol

[Angelsjunky]

Good stuff, Scotty. I've had similar thoughts - that there's a not-impossible trajectory that sees this team winning 90+ wins, but of course it relies upon some pretty big question marks. And more so, while any of the scenarios you describe can happen, that they all  happen is a bit less likely. But I remain hopeful and feel this could be a surprisingly special year. That said...

" It may be an open audition for bullpen spots, but from that group, the Angels should be able to find some combination of arms that can work."

Deja vu. This could have been said about the bullpen in any year going back to when it was actually last good almost a decade ago. I generally think too much stock is put into having a championship caliber bullpen on Opening Day, that it can be worked out and crafted over the course of the year, but on the other hand I just haven't seen the Angels be able to do that. But one thing that could be different this year is the starter depth. Any number of those guys could make good relievers.

 

[Chuck]

Just now, ettin said:

Are you throwing shade? lol

Ha!

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Good stuff, Scotty. I've had similar thoughts - that there's a not-impossible trajectory that sees this team winning 90+ wins, but of course it relies upon some pretty big question marks. And more so, while any of the scenarios you describe can happen, that they all  happen is a bit less likely. But I remain hopeful and feel this could be a surprisingly special year. That said...

" It may be an open audition for bullpen spots, but from that group, the Angels should be able to find some combination of arms that can work."

Deja vu. This could have been said about the bullpen in any year going back to when it was actually last good almost a decade ago. I generally think too much stock is put into having a championship caliber bullpen on Opening Day, that it can be worked out and crafted over the course of the year, but on the other hand I just haven't seen the Angels be able to do that. But one thing that could be different this year is the starter depth. Any number of those guys could make good relievers.

 

I think your last ooont about the specific depth Eppler has built will ultimately be what builds this pen. I think Street and Bedrock will be back in form, and so will Ramirez. I'm thinking Meyer in the bullpen at least to begin the year gives us a very interesting late inning option. I also think by the end of the year, both Middleton and Paredes will have earned a spot. 

I'm not exactly confident in that group but you never know, perhaps we'll have a really good bullpen.

[tdawg87]

Sosh needs to pick his wedgie.

[Second Base]

8 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Sosh needs to pick his wedgie.

Was it worth it?

[Chuck]

9 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Sosh needs to pick his wedgie.

I really like how nothing gets past you, @tdawg87.

Most observant AW member, bar none. 

[Angelsjunky]

12 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I really like how nothing gets past you, @tdawg87.

Most observant AW member when it comes to player ass, bar none. 

Fixed.

[Troll Daddy]

Mike Scioscia is very good at squeezing more wins out of the team than the projections. I'm a fan of Eppler and Scioscia. 

I like our chances!

[John Smith]

 Bill Shaikin ‏@BillShaikin

• Odds to win World Series: Cubs & Red Sox 9/2, Indians 8/1, #Dodgers & Nationals 10/1 ... #Angels, Marlins, Rays & White Sox 75/1. (Bovada)

•  

  Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 1h1 hour ago

  The #Cubs and #RedSox are co-favorites to win the World Series, per @BovadaLV, followed by the Cleveland #Indians, #Dodgers and #Nats.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

Mike Scioscia is very good at squeezing more wins out of the team than the projections. I'm a fan of Eppler and Scioscia. 

I like our chances!

I just like that "sosh is better at squeezing" followed the wedgie talk.

[Angel Oracle]

Crash Davis was no doubt talking about the 2016-17 NoCal winter (sometimes it rains). 

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Crash Davis was no doubt talking about the 2016-17 NoCal winter (sometimes it rains). 

I'm up here and it's been one for the ages. I've never seen anything like this. We've always had lush land because of adequate water up here, but seeing the Sac River flood this way, and dams fail, and lakes flood. This happens once or twice in a lifetime maybe? 

Last year was El Niño and we had a wet winter. It's only February and we've already matched last year's precipitation. Evacuations everywhere. If the Sac floods much further, we might head up to the PNW and show up at @Chuckster70 door. 

[Angel Oracle]

I'm just hoping that GRich's pitch counts are watched this season.   Get through year 1 following stem cell treatment, and then let him pour it on vs the opposition.