Jose Alvarez: Weak Contact Inducer?

[Brent Maguire]

Top 10 Reliever list was revealed last night on MLB Network and an interesting name came across a graphic they showed. Yes, our very own Jose Alvarez has been the 2nd best pitcher for lowest average exit velocity the past 2 seasons. Alvarez has had decent K/BB numbers along with strong GB rates but this skill of not allowing hard contact has apparently played in to him having a 3.5ish ERA from '15-'16.

I think with all the uncertainty surrounding the bullpen, Alvarez could potentially be a bit of a positive once again based on these statcast numbers. Interesting stuff. 

 

[ettin]

The guy is underrated, I believe he will be a key component of our 2017 bullpen.

[Docwaukee]

That's pretty crazy.  With his BABIP allowed of .362 last year, I would have expected it to be the opposite.  

[Angel Oracle]

That is a nice stat to have.   He still needs to work on his control some, though.

[Sam Sanchez]

Hopefully our improved defense this season will greatly benefit Alvarez as long as he continues to not allow solid contact

[ettin]

58 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

That's pretty crazy.  With his BABIP allowed of .362 last year, I would have expected it to be the opposite.  

No apparent correlation: http://www.fangraphs.com/community/is-exit-velocity-important/

[Blarg]

Sure better than putting Weaver in there with the lowest entrance velocity. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

So, Kershaw made it with zero relief appearances?!?!?!?!......STUD!

[Stradling]

I'm sure @OregonLAA will be pumped to hear this.  

[tomsred]

1 hour ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

So, Kershaw made it with zero relief appearances?!?!?!?!......STUD!

He gives the dodgers relief every five days, the other days they are on their own.

[eligrba]

So, apparently weak contact results from proper tunneling thereby reducing exit velocity.

I miss Casey Stengel..

[Oz27]

I've come to realize that average exit velocity isn't as useful a stat as I thought it was at first. The biggest reason for that is the lack of a filter. Any ground ball with an exit velocity under, say, 70 MPH is almost certainly going to be an out. Therefore it doesn't really matter if someone's ground balls are 70 MPH or 60 MPH, the outcome will still be the same. Average exit velocity doesn't factor that in. Someone who hits 50 ground balls at 65 MPH and 50 line drives at 100 MPH would have a worse average exit velocity than someone who hits 50 ground balls at 60 MPH and 50 line drives at 100 MPH, yet there expected outcomes would be roughly the same. Statcast is still great and we can gain enormous insight from its batted ball data, as well as the other figures, but average exit velocity can be quite misleading.

Having said all of that, it is still interesting that someone with a below average ground ball rate has such a low average EV.

[ettin]

2 hours ago, Oz27 said:

I've come to realize that average exit velocity isn't as useful a stat as I thought it was at first. The biggest reason for that is the lack of a filter. Any ground ball with an exit velocity under, say, 70 MPH is almost certainly going to be an out. Therefore it doesn't really matter if someone's ground balls are 70 MPH or 60 MPH, the outcome will still be the same. Average exit velocity doesn't factor that in. Someone who hits 50 ground balls at 65 MPH and 50 line drives at 100 MPH would have a worse average exit velocity than someone who hits 50 ground balls at 60 MPH and 50 line drives at 100 MPH, yet there expected outcomes would be roughly the same. Statcast is still great and we can gain enormous insight from its batted ball data, as well as the other figures, but average exit velocity can be quite misleading.

Having said all of that, it is still interesting that someone with a below average ground ball rate has such a low average EV.

He has a high ground ball rate versus RHH's (51.1% in 2016). His pitching profile has evolved in the last two years.