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happybat4

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The current voting pool has set absurd standards, even if you put aside the steroids guys. Truly amazing players like Mussina, Martinez and Walker are struggling to get in and that puts the bar far too high. If standards remain that high, there won't be many. Trout, Cabrera and Kershaw are almost certain, Pujols is certain, as is Ichiro, and guys like Bryant, Seager and Harper are on their way but it's too early to tell. Verlander has a pretty decent chance but Felix might fall short, I think. Cano and Bumgarner are probably on the bubble, with a few others. Beltre should really make it too but the voters haven't been kind to players who draw much of their value on defense. There aren't many besides that, which is silly.

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Locks: Trout, Pujols, Ichiro, Beltre, Kershaw, Miguel Cabrera

On the bubble at the moment, but will make it in:  Sabathia(223 wins), Cano(should get to 3000 hits), Beltran(should end around 2800 hits w/ ~440 hr's)

Trending to likely hall of fame careers: Harper. Bryant, Posey

 

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1 minute ago, Oz27 said:

The current voting pool has set absurd standards, even if you put aside the steroids guys. Truly amazing players like Mussina, Martinez and Walker are struggling to get in and that puts the bar far too high. If standards remain that high, there won't be many. Trout, Cabrera and Kershaw are almost certain, Pujols is certain and guys like Bryant, Seager and Harper are on their way but it's too early to tell. Verlander has a pretty decent chance but Felix might fall short, I think. There aren't many besides that, which is silly.

Crazy, forgot about Felix. He just turned 30 last year, but feels like he's been in the league much longer than that.

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7 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

The current voting pool has set absurd standards, even if you put aside the steroids guys. Truly amazing players like Mussina, Martinez and Walker are struggling to get in and that puts the bar far too high. If standards remain that high, there won't be many. Trout, Cabrera and Kershaw are almost certain, Pujols is certain, as is Ichiro, and guys like Bryant, Seager and Harper are on their way but it's too early to tell. Verlander has a pretty decent chance but Felix might fall short, I think. Cano and Bumgarner are probably on the bubble, with a few others. Beltre should really make it too but the voters haven't been kind to players who draw much of their value on defense. There aren't many besides that, which is silly.

I think a lot of the recent results are due to the curmudgeons clogging up the ballot with great steroid era players. There have probably been 20+ HOF talents on the ballot the last few years and with a max of 10 votes players are not falling off.

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Cano is a first ballot HOF imo , the guy will be top 3 2B ever in HR by the end of next year if not this year. He has a lifetime average of .307 to go along with the power. He's also incredibly durable - has not played less than 156 games in a season since his rookie year a decade ago. Right now he's an easy HOF and arguably 1st ballot with a strong finish. 

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22 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I think a lot of the recent results are due to the curmudgeons clogging up the ballot with great steroid era players. There have probably been 20+ HOF talents on the ballot the last few years and with a max of 10 votes players are not falling off.

Yeah, definitely. While there have been 15 to 20 worthy players on the ballot each year, there are still people voting for only three or four players. That is putting the bar up way too high.

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9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

@Oz27 How can you think that Beltre is on the bubble?  He's going to get his 3000th hit this season and if he plays out his contract will get 500 home runs, or very close considering he is at 445 right now.  To me Beltre is a first ballot HOF, no questions asked.  

He should be, absolutely. I just don't have that much faith in the election process, especially with players who earn much of their value with the glove.

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50 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

He should be, absolutely. I just don't have that much faith in the election process, especially with players who earn much of their value with the glove.

Yea, I don't think they will see it that way.  I think they will see a guy that hit 500 home runs, 3000 hits and was phenomenal with the glove.  

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6 hours ago, Stradling said:

@Oz27 How can you think that Beltre is on the bubble?  He's going to get his 3000th hit this season and if he plays out his contract will get 500 home runs, or very close considering he is at 445 right now.  To me Beltre is a first ballot HOF, no questions asked.  

Somebody on here a few years ago mentioned beltre and i told him he was an idiot. I think ot was his first year after the boston campaign. Now i agree. 

(To be fair, texas and test injections help a ton).

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Ichiro, AP#5, Big Poopy (recently retired)...Miggy & Kershaw (if he stays healthy)

Other kids with a ways to go Trout, Harper, Machado, Arenado, Altuve

Very Young kids.... Bryant, Lindor, Seager, Betts, Syndergarrd

other maybe's.... Cano, K-Rod, Bumgarner, Lester (Bahston & Cubs World Series Winner that is 2 serious curses broken)

I also believe that pitching stats to get in to the Hall of Fame may adjust due to specialization of the Bully at some point. I doubt there will ever be a starting pitcher with a ton of innings anymore or 300+ wins in our lifetime.

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3 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Ichiro, AP#5, Big Poopy (recently retired)...Miggy & Kershaw (if he stays healthy)

Other kids with a ways to go Trout, Harper, Machado, Arenado, Altuve

Very Young kids.... Bryant, Lindor, Seager, Betts, Syndergarrd

other maybe's.... Cano, K-Rod, Bumgarner, Lester (Bahston & Cubs World Series Winner that is 2 serious curses broken)

I also believe that pitching stats to get in to the Hall of Fame may adjust due to specialization of the Bully at some point. I doubt there will ever be a starting pitcher with a ton of innings anymore or 300+ wins in our lifetime.

You don't think Beltre will get in?

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19 hours ago, Oz27 said:

He should be, absolutely. I just don't have that much faith in the election process, especially with players who earn much of their value with the glove.

Not many HOF 3rd baseman were bad defensively. Most were as good as anyone in their time defensively. That statement sounds like you think Brooks Robinson was not Hall of Fame worthy.

 

 

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2 hours ago, happybat4 said:

You don't think Beltre will get in?

He might. I just don't know for sure.... He's never won a World Series. Never been an MVP (2nd-2004, 3rd-2012). Had 2 lean years on the power side (2014-19 & 2015-18 HR's) but then exploded back to 30+ at 37 years of age in 30 more ab's than the previous seasons?

He's a good fielder! His stats are comparable to others who are in. Can he get to 500 HR's? Does that even matter anymore? I don't know.

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1 hour ago, greginpsca said:

Not many HOF 3rd baseman were bad defensively. Most were as good as anyone in their time defensively. That statement sounds like you think Brooks Robinson was not Hall of Fame worthy.

 

 

That's far from what I'm saying. My point is that Beltre's offensive numbers are very good, but when you add in his defensive value he is truly elite. I'm not sure how much voters factor that in for a guy like him. Many still seem to judge by hit totals and batting average.

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