A Hypothetical Case for Jose Bautista

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer -

First of all let me start off by saying that the odds of the Angels interest level in Jose Bautista, much less signing him, are pretty low. This is simply a test case to identify any possible advantages and disadvantages his signing would bring to the Halos.

To start the conversation Billy Eppler would have to find a positional home for Bautista. The Angels are almost certainly not going to move a premier defender like Kole Calhoun out of right field and, based on Eppler’s early offseason strike in the trade market, Maybin seems set in left field and is likely to become our leadoff hitter.

Jose has not played third base in a long time and frankly Escobar’s bat is also valuable at the top of the lineup (likely the 2-hole) so the Angels probably do not want to downgrade even more defensively at third base despite the value of Bautista’s bat in the middle of the order.

This really only leaves first base and designated hitter and we know one of those spots is permanently (at least it seems like it) held for Albert Pujols. Of course this means that if the Angels really think Jose Bautista is a good idea, C.J. Cron would have to be moved in trade or relegated to a bench role.

Frankly taking Cron’s bat and moving it to the bench seems like a waste of a roster spot. He would only play on a part-time basis or as an injury reserve and would only see plate appearances late in a ballgame. Certainly he could bring a big bang against RHP and is still inexpensive enough that team payroll would not notice but this is a less than ideal scenario for the Angels.

What this means is that the Halos would have to trade C.J. in order to accommodate Jose Bautista at first base.

So for the sake of this hypothetical argument let us say that the Angels trade C.J. Cron to the Rockies for a relief pitcher and prospects, say LHR Jake McGee and one or two mid-tier prospects. This now opens the door for the Angels to sign Jose.

As we all know Bautista rejected the Qualifying Offer, which means the Angels will have to sacrifice their 2nd round pick in this year’s draft (their 1st round, #10 pick, is protected).

A 2nd round pick is of course a lot less valuable than a 1st round pick. Realistically speaking, this 2nd round pick is, in the author’s opinion, worth about $8M-$12M in 2017. For the purposes of this article we will assume the current value is $10M for simplicity’s sake.

Of course that pick could, in 2-5 years, turn out to be worth a lot more if the player selected in that slot pans out and becomes a star. However a lot of Minor League players never make it to the Majors particularly ones taken outside of the 1st round.

Basically Billy Eppler needs to decide if that 2nd round pick plus the money spent is worth the upgrade from Cron to Bautista and does it raise the floor of the team enough on the win curve to make a difference to the teams odds of competing and winning in 2017.

So how much money would the Angels have to spend to sign Jose to a 1-year contract?

Currently it has been rumored that Bautista wants a one year deal greater than the Qualifying Offer amount of $17.2M he rejected from the Blue Jays. FanGraphs Dave Cameron suggested that Jose could wind up signing a one year deal in the $20M-$25M range.

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection system pegs Bautista at a 3.1 zWAR while Steamer thinks he will produce 2.7 WAR. FanGraphs Depth Charts essentially combines those two projection systems with inputs from their staff and shows him at 2.8 WAR, which is what we will use for the remainder of this discussion.

Assuming a $/WAR value, in the 2017 free agency year, of $8.5M/WAR combined with Jose’s 2.8 WAR projection yields a free agency price of $23.8M. This price is approximately what Bautista should sign for if you believe in the projection systems and the $/WAR number above.

So if Eppler has to fork out $23.8M for a one year contract, exceed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold and incur a probable $500,000 in taxes at the end of the season (this is a fairly negligible issue in this scenario though), and lose an estimated $10M, 2nd round draft pick, despite what Cron brings back it does not seem worth it right? Maybe.

The final thing you have to consider in these scenarios are the opportunity costs on the back-end of a signing as well.

If the Angels sign Bautista, trade Cron, and then make it to the playoffs how many people would even remember the fact that we lost a 2nd round draft pick in 2017? My suspicion is not many.

In fact you could make a sound case that spending the money now, preseason, is infinitely better than trying to buy a bat at the trade deadline where you will undoubtedly have to pay more in prospect currency (something the Angels do not have).

Your next question might be what happens if the Angels are not competitive and have to sell at the trade deadline?

The answer here is that Eppler would almost certainly have plenty of suitors for Jose’s services in a deadline market. Bautista’s ability to play corner outfield, first base or DH would fit with a lot of clubs and his bat would likely be highly sought after as well.

If the Angels found themselves in this spot they could eat as much money as they need to in order to increase the return of players and prospects that a big bat like Jose would probably command on a pure rental contract.

Here is where the Angels would probably get equal or greater value back for what they had to sacrifice to sign him. As an example we will use the recent Carlos Beltran trade the Yankees executed near the trade deadline in 2016 as a comparable for Bautista’s relative value. It should be noted that Jose is 3 years younger than Beltran and would be 2 years younger relative to Carlos’ age if he were traded mid-year in 2017.

In that trade the Yankees acquired three Minor League pitchers including RHP Dillon Tate, who was the 4th overall pick (1st round) in the 2015 draft, RHP Erik Swanson, and RHP Nick Green. All three are young and playing in the lower Minors (Swanson had 1 inning in both AA and AAA in 2015). The Yankees went after young, unestablished, upside relying on their excellent scouting department to identify value.

The Angels, if they did sign Jose and had to trade him at the deadline, would likely be able to ask for a 1st round draft pick from the 2016 draft as the centerpiece of any trade. The value of that pick is probably at least double the value of our 2nd round 2017 draft pick (i.e. about $20M in value), not to mention that those prospects are already climbing their way closer to the Majors and that is time saved to help win in the Trout window of contention.

This also does not account for the value of any other pieces the Angels could potentially acquire as complimentary value in a trade which would likely add about $8M-$12M. Of course this assumes the Angels eat some of Bautista’s remaining 2017 salary. Notably the Angels, instead of asking for three lower level prospects, could ask for one or two mid-level or higher prospects instead or even a MLB player.

So the opportunity cost here involves a lot of factors. Perhaps the most important one is the ability to trade Cron successfully and for at least fair value (for the record about a $20M-$30 surplus). Others include Jose’s actual contract price, the delta upgrade from Cron’s performance to Jose’s, the loss of our 2nd round draft pick, and the potential recompense of making the playoffs or receiving players and prospects back in a mid-year trade.

There is a compelling case to be made that the Angels should sign Bautista if Eppler can move Cron and convince Arte that exceeding the Luxury Tax by a small amount of money is acceptable (which frankly should not be hard to do in theory). The downside risk in this is actually fairly small.

Basically you are losing approximately $35M in current 2017 value to sign Jose (again assuming you get fair trade value for Cron) in order to gain the opportunity of 1) potentially reaching the playoffs, 2) selling Bautista off at the trade deadline for a probable maximum upside of $30M-50M in 2017 value, or 3) getting nothing because Jose has been injured or has massively underperformed in the first half of 2017.

The overall risk in this scenario appears manageable. Bautista has proven himself to be pretty durable over the last several seasons so the odds of injury is not as high as it might be with other players. Additionally the projection systems do not see a sharp decline for 2017 reducing that risk a bit. Risk is further reduced because it appears Jose is heading for a one year deal in free agency which avoids long term entanglement with an aging veteran.

Again this is a hypothetical long shot of an idea in the first place simply based on our current team payroll concerns and positional availability.

However there does come a time where the opportunity cost makes enough sense that it could encourage a team like the Angels to seriously consider it as an option. There is a reason they call Bautista “Joey Bats” and eventually there could be enough reasons the Angels would want to capitalize on signing him if his market remains depressed and they can make room for him.

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[HaloMilliVanilli]

I like it, and feel that this is what great teams do to build creatively and give themselves an advantage.

[Troll Daddy]

He's a win now type ... has to be at least a two year deal. You'll see him bat behind Trout. 

You have club control with Cron and  better future with more financial flex ability. 

 

[ettin]

8 minutes ago, HaloJustinBieber said:

I like it, and feel that this is what great teams do to build creatively and give themselves an advantage.

As I said in the article it is not an impossible task but a very unlikely one if the Angels cannot or do not want to trade Cron and take on so much payroll (which they were not willing to do last year and so far this year). All that being said Bautista should be productive and it is even possible he could be even more productive than the projection systems think he will be. Very remote though but opportunities have to be monitored and addressed on a case by case basis.

[arch stanton]

So is Bautista's potential production and whatever you get for Cron worth enough more than Cron's production plus the 2nd round pick and associated slot money to make it worthwhile? I don't see that being a gamble worthy of $23 million.

[Blarg]

This is the kind of move that sets the club back instead of move it forward.

[Ohtaniland]

With what seems to be a lifetime commitment to Albert Pujols (age 36) it's highly unlikely that Joey Bautista (age 36) fits into Eppler's youth movement or Arte's budget. C J Cron (age 27) is really the better fit right now. 

[Docwaukee]

Nice job Chuck.  

Interesting to think about.  

My biggest contingency would be making sure I got solid value in return for Cron.  Joey Bats probably gets you about a win above Cron.  

I think if you do this, you try to move Maybin for a similar type of prospect that we got him for instead.  

Then you shed some payroll as well.  

[ettin]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Nice job Chuck.  

Interesting to think about.  

My biggest contingency would be making sure I got solid value in return for Cron.  Joey Bats probably gets you about a win above Cron.  

I think if you do this, you try to move Maybin for a similar type of prospect that we got him for instead.  

Then you shed some payroll as well.  

This is the primary key or this doesn't even come close to happening, it has to be at least fair value or better, otherwise you're adding more costs into this scenario.

The other thing I didn't talk as much about but is also important is how does this impact our win curve. I haven't done all the gory math and examined it but I have to think that anything that pushes us up positively at this time puts us in a better spot to contend. The way the team is set up right now any incremental improvement inches us a little closer to the Astros, Rangers, and Mariners (we are all alone in our own chase group).

[ettin]

11 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

With what seems to be a lifetime commitment to Albert Pujols (age 36) it's highly unlikely that Joey Bautista (age 36) fits into Eppler's youth movement or Arte's budget. C J Cron (age 27) is really the better fit right now. 

Of course he doesn't fit into a youth movement and he certainly will bust budget of which they didn't do last year and so far this year and C.J. is the better fit for payroll without a doubt.

However if that high performance computer you have had your eye on for a while suddenly drops in price you would consider purchasing it right? If the opportunity cost to buy it gets low enough you jump on it because you know there is value in the deal for your pocketbook. If Bautista manages to reach that point Eppler would be foolish not to consider it. We are only suggesting a one year deal here Claude not a 10 year commitment. That lowers the teams exposure and risk.

As I said in the article this has a very low chance of happening and should only occur if the Angels get at least fair value on Cron in trade (or at least get enough overall value between trading Cron and buying Bautista that they feel they are getting value).

Jose actually had unusually high hard hit percentages in 2016, so his ability to barrel the ball strongly didn't disappear he just suffered from bad luck against LHP so his overall batted ball profile didn't change from previous seasons (in fact it looks like it improved) and his contact rates in and out of the zone improved slightly as well. Everything points to bad luck with balls in play against LHP as the source of his diminished results in 2016.

Bautista knows how to take a walk and would be great hitting, 2nd, 3rd, or cleanup. Additionally over his entire career he has had nearly identical platoon splits (wRC+ 135 vs. LHP and 131 vs. RHP) making him very viable from both sides of the plate. He has super solid OBP of .375 and .366 lifetime vs. LHP and RHP respectively. Doc's idea about flipping Maybin's salary to help accommodate Bautista isn't a terrible one either.

I'm not trying to convince you Claude because the realities are that we have a 1st baseman who can hit RHP fairly well (wRC+ 119) and is very cheap right now making this a non-starter in two important ways but again if the price gets so low and the return on the investment becomes attractive enough as a good businessman or manager you have to consider it and maybe, just maybe, take advantage of it.

[ettin]

55 minutes ago, Blarg said:

This is the kind of move that sets the club back instead of move it forward.

This all depends on your view of C.J. Cron. So far he has shown he is only good against RHP. There are a lot of guys currently on the market (Moss, Lind, Alvarez) who are good only against RHP too and they are likely to command somewhere in the $4M-8M dollar range per year. If C.J. cannot show improvement against LHP his value as an asset to the team is limited once he hits arbitration next year.

What I am saying is that Bautista is a proven middle of the order hitter who should perform better than Cron in 2017 from both sides of the plate. If we traded Cron we could simply replace him next year with a similar bat (guys like Moss, Lind, and Alvarez might very well be available next offseason too) in free agency. We are gunning to get Matt Thaiss in the lineup sooner rather than later anyway so it is not like Cron is probably in our long term plans (although he could certainly stay and be the bridge to Thaiss).

I think we have to be careful here and not look at Cron and think "Hey he's young, he's part of the youth movement, and he should stay". We should be thinking "How has he performed, will he improve, and if not when is the right time to move him in trade?" Both Steamer and ZiPS project him to be exactly in line with what he did in 2016. C.J. even performed worse against LHP in 2016 (wRC+ of 79 vs. 91) which is not a good thing.

Eventually Eppler and company will have to decide is this the best we are going to get out of C.J. performance-wise and is he someone we want to continue forward with or not.

So really the question Eppler should be examining is how can we improve the team and I think there is a solid case that Bautista will outperform Cron overall in 2017. The follow up questions and concerns involve all of the other details regarding payroll, contract length, and reward/risk and our ability to move C.J. in trade (or put him on the bench for 2017).

[totdprods]

Only two scenarios in which I would consider Bautista, one) Cron brings back either an exceptional MLB-ready prospect or very good MLB pitcher with control, or two) a deal was expanded in a way where Cron's value was used to move one of Street or Escobar's salary as well, allowing us to add not only Bautista, but one or two of the better remaining FA relievers and/or Luis Valbuena for 3rd.

Considering that Escobar and Street still fill a need, I can't see that being too likely, but I'd argue that redirecting their salaries to guys like Logan, Hochevar, Valbuena, would be a better use of that money in the short-term without hampering our payroll in the big picture. It makes Bautista's financial impact less as well.

I can't see Cron having any trade value right now. Not when Carter, Trumbo, Moss, and Alvarez are all out there.

[totdprods]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Nice job Chuck.  

Interesting to think about.  

My biggest contingency would be making sure I got solid value in return for Cron.  Joey Bats probably gets you about a win above Cron.  

I think if you do this, you try to move Maybin for a similar type of prospect that we got him for instead.  

Then you shed some payroll as well.  

Not sure Maybin has much of a trade market either. Plenty of vet FA OFs out there who are going to be cheaper than him and are close enough production wise.

Only way Bautista would fit would be if a team was absolutely enamored with Cron or Maybin. I just can't see any way it'd be a possibility.

[wopphil]

Cron is a better player than we give him credit for. He could be a 3-4 WAR player health permitting. And he is under club control for 4 more years (and will probably cost over those 4 years what Bautista will cost in 1 year). Moving Cron for Bautista makes little sense. 

Now, if you could get a good pitcher for Calhoun, then maybe Bautista would be a viable option.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, wopphil said:

Cron is a better player than we give him credit for. He could be a 3-4 WAR player health permitting. And he is under club control for 4 more years (and will probably cost over those 4 years what Bautista will cost in 1 year). Moving Cron for Bautista makes little sense. 

Now, if you could get a good pitcher for Calhoun, then maybe Bautista would be a viable option.

I do think Calhoun could fetch a very good SP and should be considered, but Bautista in the OF seems like a pretty hairy proposition. He'd already carry enough risk, and you're just amplifying that by putting him in the outfield.

I do think Cron is a good player, potentially a very good player this year, but the fact he is limited to 1B nicks him quite a bit in my book, even with his defensive improvement. There just isn't enough versatility in his game. He's limited to a certain area in the lineup and he's a one position player. Even if he puts it together offensively, there may be more value having his spot on the roster replaced with a lesser hitter who offers more options with where they can play and where they can hit in the line-up. Bautista, while significantly more expensive, offers a whole ton of versatility. Yeah he may not be the best defensively, but as @ettin noted he could drop into three more positions than Cron can, and his .384 OBP over the last eight seasons (.383 over last three, .366 last season) works well anywhere in the line-up. He'd be a formidable lead-off hitter, he has the presence and power to hit middle of the order, and even if his decline continues and his BA and SLG decline, he should still draw enough walks that if he was relegated to hitting #7th he would be a boon to the bottom thirds OBP.

Double-edged sword though, a solid hitting 1B/DH type shouldn't be difficult to replace any given offseason. That means if we needed to replace both Cron and Bautista next offseason, it shouldn't be hard, but by the same token, I can't see Cron drawing anywhere close to fair value when any team could just go out and sign Chris Carter for a 1/$5m and possibly get a better player. 

[Erstad Grit]

Im not convinced pujols is someone we can assume will be ready to go.  Sign bautista and keep cron.  If angels are out we can get much more than a 2nd value in trade for bautista. 

[AngelsFanSince86]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

I do think Calhoun could fetch a very good SP and should be considered, but Bautista in the OF seems like a pretty hairy proposition. He'd already carry enough risk, and you're just amplifying that by putting him in the outfield.

I do think Cron is a good player, potentially a very good player this year, but the fact he is limited to 1B nicks him quite a bit in my book, even with his defensive improvement. There just isn't enough versatility in his game. He's limited to a certain area in the lineup and he's a one position player. Even if he puts it together offensively, there may be more value having his spot on the roster replaced with a lesser hitter who offers more options with where they can play and where they can hit in the line-up. Bautista, while significantly more expensive, offers a whole ton of versatility. Yeah he may not be the best defensively, but as @ettin noted he could drop into three more positions than Cron can, and his .384 OBP over the last eight seasons (.383 over last three, .366 last season) works well anywhere in the line-up. He'd be a formidable lead-off hitter, he has the presence and power to hit middle of the order, and even if his decline continues and his BA and SLG decline, he should still draw enough walks that if he was relegated to hitting #7th he would be a boon to the bottom thirds OBP.

Double-edged sword though, a solid hitting 1B/DH type shouldn't be difficult to replace any given offseason. That means if we needed to replace both Cron and Bautista next offseason, it shouldn't be hard, but by the same token, I can't see Cron drawing anywhere close to fair value when any team could just go out and sign Chris Carter for a 1/$5m and possibly get a better player. 

 

This is what I am looking at.  Chris Carter, Luis Valbuena (younger and more versatility), Trumbo (not getting much interest so may be cheap), or Pedro Alvarez are all reasonable options if you considering adding some power.  Bautista's OBP makes him stand out from the rest, but is that really worth the extra cash and getting rid of a cost controlled player like Cron?  

Cron and Bautista had the same OPS+ last year.  Bautista has played the entirety of the successful part of his career in a hitters park.  He has shown decline the past few years.  His BABIP was only slightly lower then that of his career last year.  He will likely be a bit better than last year, but then again so will Cron.  I think you have to give Cron a chance.  He has shown improvement every year:  he's been more consistent and has drawn more walks.  Given the state of the Angels and where it seems they are heading you have to be on the 2-3 year plan.  Bautista makes the Angels slightly more competitive for one or two years.  Those same years where the farm is still developing and their pitching staff is healing.  When that 2018/19 FA class hits the Angels should be in the best position possible to compete.  If they sign Bautista and trade away Cron then all they will have left at that point from a power standpoint is 38 yo Pujols.  

I think best case scenario is that Cron continues to improve and becomes the power bat he has the potential to be.  Thaiss comes up and performs and that gives us our 1B/DH duo.  38 yo Pujols will not be playing every day by then.

The thing is, as listed above, there are plenty of guys available that have power and are cheap.  Bautista is a very short term solution to a problem the Angels don't really have.  Why not stick with Cron and see if he can develop the on base skills and become more valuable than the Chris Carter/Trumbo types?

If they were going to spend that kind of money on anyone it should be pitching, not hitting.

Edited January 10, 2017 by AngelsFanSince86

[Angelsjunky]

I can't get around the fact that Bautista is 36 years old and coming off his worse season since 2009.

I also think you need to give Cron a full year of (hopefully healthy) playing time to maximize his value, then possibly trade him in the offseason if Thaiss is ready to take over.

[Stradling]

For those saying a Bautista signing would be going backwards because of his age versus the age of Cron, I would agree except if you can get value for Cron.  If they signed Bautista and traded Cron for a 35 year old pitcher I'd totally say we're going in the wrong direction.  However if we traded Cron and got a good young starter or set up man, i would be fine with that.  If Cron has little value to other teams then don't sign Bautista.  I wouldn't trade Calhoun to make room for Bautista.  As others have said Cron is very one dimensional and Bautista has much more versatility.  He can bat anywhere in the line up

[ksangel]

Sign Bautista as a DH and let Pujols walk (won't happen) sounds good.

But give up Cron and 2nd round pick (Jahmai Jones potential player) for one year of Bautista - not interested even though I like Bautista a lot for his bat and the attitude he brings to the field.

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Bautista is 36 years old and coming off his worse season since 2009.

I also think you need to give Cron a full year of (hopefully healthy) playing time to maximize his value, then possibly trade him in the offseason if Thaiss is ready to take over.

It was his worst season since '09, but it still wasn't bad. Same OPS+ as Cron so it wasn't entirely due to the AL East parks either. Even if his pop takes a dive playing in the AL West and his BA drops, he takes a bunch of walks. It dominoes a lot of things. It makes Escobar's less necessary, as he's here primarily because he can hit lead-off and because he has a high OBP. Not saying you have to move Escobar now, it just gives you some cushion. If Bautista is still clubbing it, he gives you some major Pujols insurance if he's hurt. And if Pujols isn't hurting, well now you're deepening the line-up all that much more. 

Plus I really like the idea of him playing pissed off against the Rangers. It'd be nice to have a little Reverse Napoli Effect going there. 

Ultimately, I do agree - I think I would rather give Cron the opportunity to blossom into a .285/25/100 guy so his trade value can go even higher. Marte, Thaiss, or a FA could still fill his role next offseason. But if someone was willing to pay a really high price for Cron now...

[Glen]

If we sign Bautista, won't teams know we need to trade Cron, which will effectively lower his trade value?

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

For those saying a Bautista signing would be going backwards because of his age versus the age of Cron, I would agree except if you can get value for Cron.  If they signed Bautista and traded Cron for a 35 year old pitcher I'd totally say we're going in the wrong direction.  However if we traded Cron and got a good young starter or set up man, i would be fine with that.  If Cron has little value to other teams then don't sign Bautista.  I wouldn't trade Calhoun to make room for Bautista.  As others have said Cron is very one dimensional and Bautista has much more versatility.  He can bat anywhere in the line up

Agreed - if Cron brings back a top prospect or a very good young player, it's still a win in the long-term. That player will contribute much sooner than a 2nd rounder would.

It just has to be a very high price.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Glen said:

If we sign Bautista, won't teams know we need to trade Cron, which will effectively lower his trade value?

Doesn't affect his value to an acquiring team. 
I don't buy that belief that much. I think it definitely holds some merit in certain cases, but ultimately it's overblown. 

If a team really wants Cron, his value is the same to them. It may just lessen some of our options.

[totdprods]

36 minutes ago, AngelsFanSince86 said:

 

This is what I am looking at.  Chris Carter, Luis Valbuena (younger and more versatility), Trumbo (not getting much interest so may be cheap), or Pedro Alvarez are all reasonable options if you considering adding some power.  Bautista's OBP makes him stand out from the rest, but is that really worth the extra cash and getting rid of a cost controlled player like Cron?  

Cron and Bautista had the same OPS+ last year.  Bautista has played the entirety of the successful part of his career in a hitters park.  He has shown decline the past few years.  His BABIP was only slightly lower then that of his career last year.  He will likely be a bit better than last year, but then again so will Cron.  I think you have to give Cron a chance.  He has shown improvement every year:  he's been more consistent and has drawn more walks.  Given the state of the Angels and where it seems they are heading you have to be on the 2-3 year plan.  Bautista makes the Angels slightly more competitive for one or two years.  Those same years where the farm is still developing and their pitching staff is healing.  When that 2018/19 FA class hits the Angels should be in the best position possible to compete.  If they sign Bautista and trade away Cron then all they will have left at that point from a power standpoint is 38 yo Pujols.  

I think best case scenario is that Cron continues to improve and becomes the power bat he has the potential to be.  Thaiss comes up and performs and that gives us our 1B/DH duo.  38 yo Pujols will not be playing every day by then.

The thing is, as listed above, there are plenty of guys available that have power and are cheap.  Bautista is a very short term solution to a problem the Angels don't really have.  Why not stick with Cron and see if he can develop the on base skills and become more valuable than the Chris Carter/Trumbo types?

If they were going to spend that kind of money on anyone it should be pitching, not hitting.

And that's why I don't really see a Bautista signing making much sense. In a vacuum there's at least an argument for it. But in reality, we commit a ton of money to a luxury when we don't address pitching, of which there's plenty of pitchers still worth spending on. If we moved salary prior to signing Bautista, such as dealing Street, Escobar, or Maybin, then it becomes more likely - but Street and Escobar have basically no market, and I can't see us selling Maybin already. If we traded Cron, it'd clear a spot, but is anyone really going to pay the premium price we'd ask for Cron when they could sign Carter or Alvarez for basically nothing, or go big and get Trumbo or Bautista?

It's not impossible but there's just too many other moves that would need to happen around it, and none of them seem to be that likely. 

If we sign any FA, it's either:
- a catcher to bump Perez to the minors - Wieters also offers some 'insurance' at 1B if Cron or Marte are struggling and Pujols is still out.
- an infielder like Utley, Valbuena, Hill, Johnson to bump Marte to SLC and offer more MIF/left-handed/defensive depth
- an outfielder, be it Bautista or Saunders, if they get a ridiculous deal on Calhoun; like Matt Moore/Tyler Beede and Mac Williamson, or Robbie Ray/Shelby Miller/Patrick Corbin and David Peralta, or Luke Weaver and Jedd Gyorko