AngelsWin.com Top 30 Prospects: #18 Troy Montgomery

[AngelsWin.com]

Prospect: Troy Montgomery - Rank: 18

2015/16: UR                         Position(s): Outfielder

Level: Class A Ball              Age: Entering Age 22 season in 2017.

Height: 5'10”                       Weight: 185 lb.

Present -  Future 

Hitting Ability: 40 - 50

Power: 45 - 50

Base Running: 65 - 65

Patience: 55 - 60

Fielding: 60 - 60

Range: 60 - 60

Arm: 60 - 60

Overall: 45 - 60

Floor: AAA Depth. 

Ceiling: Starting outfielder and leadoff hitter in the major leagues.  

Likely Outcome: Dynamic 4th outfielder 

Summary: Montgomery is one of my favorite types of players to get drafted.  The type that don't have any hype, and don't come with the over-used "5-tool" moniker.  Just really good ball players, that do just about everything average or better on a baseball diamond.  The type that perform well at a big-time college, but fall to the 8th round of a draft because they're only 5'10" tall.  The type that play a game with such intensity, that others can't help but look up to this player.  Just good old fashioned, blue-collar hard work and the will to win.  

If you haven't caught on, I just described Kole Calhoun.  In fact, Troy even looks a bit like Kole Calhoun out there, minus the fiery red hair, and slightly less muscular.  Same left-handedness, similar skill-set, athleticism, same passion and competitive spirit. 

That's what we'll see if everything breaks right for Troy Montgomery, a Kole Calhoun type of regular.  It's no wonder the Reds asked for Montgomery in return when they were discussing trading Brandon Phillips to the Angels.  At Ohio State, Montgomery logged more BB than K, stole 56 bases between his junior and senior season, owned an OBP well north of .400, played in competitive scouting leagues during the offseason and performed spectacularly, and to top it off, was an elite defender. 

It still makes me shake my head that guys like this last until the middle rounds of the draft when at bare minimum, you have yourself a useful depth piece between AAA and the majors.  Once drafted by the Angels, Montgomery torched Orem and the Pioneer League in general, and was promoted to Burlington, where he was quite solid, if not "pretty good".

From the scouting side of things, Troy is a left handed hitter with more pop than the numbers show. Sure, he's a speedy leadoff hitter that reaches base and can hit for average, but Troy swings hard, yet under control.  There's "plus" bat speed and an advanced feel at the plate.  Every once in a while he'll swing out of his shoes, but not too often.  Defensively, Montgomery can cover a ton of ground in CF and has a rocket for an arm, though the Angels have been using him in the corner outfield to start.

What to expect next season: Montgomery should head to Advanced A Ball at Inland Empire next season, and I'm guessing he'll put up the gaudy HR/SB numbers (at least on the road) that will really open the eyes of more casual fans, and thus his ranking as a prospect will climb.  Personally, I'll be watching to see how much contact Troy makes, if he's using the whole field, and continues to show patience as many patient hitters don't do in the Cal League environment.  With Troy, there is the off-chance the Cal League is too easy and he'll be bumped up to AA for the season, but I wouldn't count on it. Even Kole Calhoun was kept at Inland Empire for a full year. 

Estimated Time of Arrival: Mid 2019, Troy's age 24 season.

Grade as a prospect: C+: Projects to be a borderline MLB starter.

[Second Base]

Personal favorite of mine. If there is another Kole Calhoun in the system, I can say with relative certainty that it would be Troy Montgomery. Strong, very good overall game.

[Troll Daddy]

I'll be visiting the Inland Empire team more frequently this season ... and keeping a eye on him.

Good stuff 

 

[Docwaukee]

Brett Gardner with less speed and a little more pop.  

[tdawg87]

Kole....Calhoun?

[Stradling]

I was hoping for dissimilar left handedness. 

[ScruffytheJanitor]

One little b other : For some reason, when I open an article from the main page in Chrome, the text spacing is all wrong, with most of it contained in the side bar. When I open it in IE, all the spacing is correct. Taking a gander at the coding, it seems like Chrome isn't reading the Faux Column spacing or the margin for the body and/or the right column is way off. 

[Chuck]

8 hours ago, ScruffytheJanitor said:

One little b other : For some reason, when I open an article from the main page in Chrome, the text spacing is all wrong, with most of it contained in the side bar. When I open it in IE, all the spacing is correct. Taking a gander at the coding, it seems like Chrome isn't reading the Faux Column spacing or the margin for the body and/or the right column is way off. 

Fixed! 

This had to do with the way Scotty was entering these in. I'll give him a heads up on how to resolve this going forward. 

[Angelsjunky]

Everyone loves a gritty white guy with limited tools but a lot of heart. It is baseball's version of the Working Class Hero.

Seriously though, I thought of Kole as soon as I read your first line or two. It seems to me that these sorts of players tend to meet their big test early. They usually do really well at short-season Rookie Ball (Orem) and then get bogged down somewhere in A or A+. So the jury is out on Montgomery. He held his own in A ball last year, but didn't excel. This is where the Kole Calhouns separate themselves from the Andrew Heids and Brandon Deckers: they keep hitting in A, A+, AA, and all the way to the majors.

By way of example, Calhoun, Decker, and Heid were all in Orem together - along with Travis Witherspoon. Decker hit much better than Calhoun, Heid a bit better, and Witherspoon a bit worse. For whatever reason, Calhoun went to A+ ball and the rest to A ball. Here is how they did in the following year (2011):

Calhoun: .324/.410/.547 (A+)

Decker: .231/.316/.364 (A)

Heid: .270/.340/.310 (A)

Witherspoon: .250/.316/.392 (A/A+)

So you see Calhoun separate himself from the pack in A/A+, all while playing at a higher level (although better hitting context, I believe). Something in even A/A+ ball exposes your garden variety college hitters.

Heid soldiered on for a few more years and played several in AA/AAA, but never got even a cup o' coffee and last played in 2015. Decker went to the independents in 2012 and played well, but didn't play after that. Witherspoon bounced around in A+/AA for a few more years but never developed and played in the independent leagues last year.

So I wonder: What qualities separated Calhoun from those other three? Was it natural talent? Work ethic/make-up? Plate discipline? Tenacity? The ability to hit breaking pitches? If it is talent, then there's nothing that such players can do about it, but the fact that they all hit similarly or better in Orem points at least to comparable natural ability. But if that special something can be pinpointed, an organization might find more hidden Calhouns among college draftees because, based on numbers, they aren't easy to differentiate.

[Docwaukee]

17 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Everyone loves a gritty white guy with limited tools but a lot of heart. It is baseball's version of the Working Class Hero.

Seriously though, I thought of Kole as soon as I read your first line or two. It seems to me that these sorts of players tend to meet their big test early. They usually do really well at short-season Rookie Ball (Orem) and then get bogged down somewhere in A or A+. So the jury is out on Montgomery. He held his own in A ball last year, but didn't excel. This is where the Kole Calhouns separate themselves from the Andrew Heids and Brandon Deckers: they keep hitting in A, A+, AA, and all the way to the majors.

By way of example, Calhoun, Decker, and Heid were all in Orem together - along with Travis Witherspoon. Decker hit much better than Calhoun, Heid a bit better, and Witherspoon a bit worse. For whatever reason, Calhoun went to A+ ball and the rest to A ball. Here is how they did in the following year (2011):

Calhoun: .324/.410/.547 (A+)

Decker: .231/.316/.364 (A)

Heid: .270/.340/.310 (A)

Witherspoon: .250/.316/.392 (A/A+)

So you see Calhoun separate himself from the pack in A/A+, all while playing at a higher level (although better hitting context, I believe). Something in even A/A+ ball exposes your garden variety college hitters.

Heid soldiered on for a few more years and played several in AA/AAA, but never got even a cup o' coffee and last played in 2015. Decker went to the independents in 2012 and played well, but didn't play after that. Witherspoon bounced around in A+/AA for a few more years but never developed and played in the independent leagues last year.

So I wonder: What qualities separated Calhoun from those other three? Was it natural talent? Work ethic/make-up? Plate discipline? Tenacity? The ability to hit breaking pitches? If it is talent, then there's nothing that such players can do about it, but the fact that they all hit similarly or better in Orem points at least to comparable natural ability. But if that special something can be pinpointed, an organization might find more hidden Calhouns among college draftees because, based on numbers, they aren't easy to differentiate.

The interesting thing is that the halos must have seen it because they had him skip a level.  Heid got derailed somehow getting only 141 pa the following season.  There is likely an 'it' factor.  When you see these guys, you just know.  As an aside, Calhoun squares the ball up when he hits it.  Lots of line drives.  

[Second Base]

I think what separates Montgomery  from the rest of the college draftees is his ability to square up the ball. His overall defense is on par with Calhoun's, but what separated Kole is the same that will separate Troy. Hard worker, learned fast, and was deceptively strong. This led to a perceived "it" factor in that you simply knew that whenever he was on the field, good things happened,

I haven't said this about too many prospects before, simply because I knew from early on that Kole was different. He was too good for the 4th OF role. And scouts loved him, which just illustrates the tremendous rift between what the national prospect sites see and what major league clubs actually see.

Momtgomery is very similar. This kid is strong, and just because there isn't any hype on him yet, doesn't mean he isn't worthy. Most of those big prospect sites mail it in on our prospects anyway.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think what separates Montgomery  from the rest of the college draftees is his ability to square up the ball. His overall defense is on par with Calhoun's, but what separated Kole is the same that will separate Troy. Hard worker, learned fast, and was deceptively strong. This led to a perceived "it" factor in that you simply knew that whenever he was on the field, good things happened,

I haven't said this about too many prospects before, simply because I knew from early on that Kole was different. He was too good for the 4th OF role. And scouts loved him, which just illustrates the tremendous rift between what the national prospect sites see and what major league clubs actually see.

Momtgomery is very similar. This kid is strong, and just because there isn't any hype on him yet, doesn't mean he isn't worthy. Most of those big prospect sites mail it in on our prospects anyway.

they mail it in on most prospects frankly.  anyone who was picked in the first round or was a high priced international signing gets the benefit of the doubt.  To me, the most interesting prospects are the ones that every team or at least most teams had access to at some point in the draft.  

[Angelsjunky]

So here's my question, Scotty. We can agree that Kole Calhoun is, at worst, an above average regular and possibly as good as a borderline star, right? If that is the case, and if Troy Montgomery has a good chance of becoming another Calhoun-type, why rank him #18?

Now I can clearly see why, among position players, he would rank behind Thaiss, Jones, Marsh, and Ward. Those guys all have higher upsides. But then it gets dicey. Hermosillo has shone us a lot more, so he gets the nod, but then we come to David Fletcher, who is #13 on your list. For the life of me I just can't get too excited about the Fletchers of the world (Davids, that is; Jeffs I can get really excited about ;)). And looking at pitchers, there are a few guys who Montgomery-as-possible-Calhoun could rate higher than.

I don't see a case—yet—for him to rank in the top 10, but maybe 11-15 range? Again, assuming the Calhoun comp is legit.

I suppose I should also ask: Were did you rank Montgomery on your own personal list? I know this is a compilation ranking.

[Chuck]

His build is awfully close to Kole Calhoun's. 

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

So here's my question, Scotty. We can agree that Kole Calhoun is, at worst, an above average regular and possibly as good as a borderline star, right? If that is the case, and if Troy Montgomery has a good chance of becoming another Calhoun-type, why rank him #18?

Now I can clearly see why, among position players, he would rank behind Thaiss, Jones, Marsh, and Ward. Those guys all have higher upsides. But then it gets dicey. Hermosillo has shone us a lot more, so he gets the nod, but then we come to David Fletcher, who is #13 on your list. For the life of me I just can't get too excited about the Fletchers of the world (Davids, that is; Jeffs I can get really excited about ;)). And looking at pitchers, there are a few guys who Montgomery-as-possible-Calhoun could rate higher than.

I don't see a case—yet—for him to rank in the top 10, but maybe 11-15 range? Again, assuming the Calhoun comp is legit.

I suppose I should also ask: Were did you rank Montgomery on your own personal list? I know this is a compilation ranking.

Montgomery was higher on mine, but more importantly, the justification here is that Thaiss, Nonie and Jones are clearly ahead, as is Ward. Hermosillo, is going to be 21 in AA next year, and having found something that works for him offensively. What an athlete. 

As for Fletcher, this team just has not had a utility infielder than can do the things he can since Maicer. Sure, I like Montgomery better as a major leaguer, but watch Fletcher play last Spring and this year, I can tell you, there's an it factor with him too.

Now in terms of pitchers, it all comes down to what they bring. Scoring Chris Rodriguez and Cole Duensing when we did looks insane right now. And the upside and proximity to the majors that Banuelos and Campos offer is enticing, especially for a team with depth and bullpen needs.

Momtgomery has me convinced he could be the real deal. But you know what did it for me with Calhoun? That year at Inland Empire. The Angels wanted to promote him, but he got injured in the middle of a playoff race. Rather than doing what was probably best for his career and sitting it out, he slid over to 1B, learned it well enough to play it in the majors and helped his team win the league. He met adversity with creativity and sheer will power, and won.

Before Kole did that, I wonder if he would've been in my Top 30. I wonder if I would've paid enough attention to him the next Spring to guarantee he was more than a 4th OF.

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

they mail it in on most prospects frankly.  anyone who was picked in the first round or was a high priced international signing gets the benefit of the doubt.  To me, the most interesting prospects are the ones that every team or at least most teams had access to at some point in the draft.  

Doing it like that would really make this whole writing thing a bunch easier.  Roberto Baldoquin, #1. 

[Angelsjunky]

Thanks, Scotty.

I forgot about Nonie, btw. I know you'll do a report on him, but what is his upside?

[Docwaukee]

12 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Thanks, Scotty.

I forgot about Nonie, btw. I know you'll do a report on him, but what is his upside?

huge.  similar bust potential.  

[Angelsjunky]

So he's the Brandon Marsh of infielders?

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

So he's the Brandon Marsh of infielders?

even more boom or bust than Marsh.  

[Second Base]

Yeah, Doc nailed it.  I think if he hit his absolutely ceiling, you're looking at a 20/20 or better as a shortstop in the major leagues.  Maybe even 30/30.  He may never get any better than he is right now.  All I know, is that kid is the PERFECT kind of pick in the third round of the draft for a team like this.  Nonie has top of the draft upside, and we needed that infusion of talent. 

Marsh is super-talented, but doesn't have quite the power/speed potential Nonie has yet. He's a bit more polished too, having seen more elite competition from the traveling ball circuit in Georgia and Florida. 

[Angelsjunky]

OK great, I didn't know about Nonie. If he and Marsh turn out, and Ward gets back on track, all of a sudden we're looking at some nice position player prospects.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

OK great, I didn't know about Nonie. If he and Marsh turn out, and Ward gets back on track, all of a sudden we're looking at some nice position player prospects.

My guess is that both Marsh and Williams are at least 4-5 years away unless they end up superstars.  

[Angel Oracle]

I like that the org is returning to drafting more HS players, vs Dipoto's mainly high floor draft picks.   The here and there high floor draft picks to fill in spots in the org are find, just not something to mainly focus on.

[Second Base]

15 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

OK great, I didn't know about Nonie. If he and Marsh turn out, and Ward gets back on track, all of a sudden we're looking at some nice position player prospects.

Every good minor league system has guys like that. You kind of just roll the dice and hope they turn into a ball player. Ours are definitely Nonie and Marsh. I think Alcantara was one, but the shine was quickly coming off.