AngelsWin.com Top 30 Prospects: #19 Eduardo Paredes

[AngelsWin.com]

Prospect: Eduardo Paredes           Rank: 19

2015/16: 18                        Position(s): Right Handed Pitcher  

Level: AA                          Age: Entering Age 22 season in 2017.

Height: 6’1”                       Weight: 190 lb.

   Present - Future

Fastball         65  65   

Curve            50  60   

Change         50  50  

Mechanics    60  60   

Command    55  60

Control         70  70

Overall         55  65

Floor: Middle Reliever in the Major Leagues  

Ceiling: A closer in the Major Leagues.    

Likely Outcome: A 7th-8th-9th inning option, doesn't matter.

Summary: It's a shame we don't rank relievers as high on prospect lists, otherwise Paredes would be getting a lot more notoriety among fans.  Everywhere Eduardo has gone, he's succeeded, and he's still very young.  When the Angels signed Eduardo as a 17 year old, he was completely and utterly dominant in the Dominican Summer League.  For reasons unknown, the Angels decided it would be a good idea to have Paredes repeat the DSL as an 18 year old, which he did and was again dominant. The Angels then brought him stateside as a 19 year old and put him in the hitter paradise that is Orem in the Pioneer League.  No matter, Paredes dispatched them with no problem at all. In fact, he finished with a 1.33 ERA and 31 K's in one 20 innings.  That's how easy Orem was for Eduardo.  

You'd really think by now the Angels would start aggressively promoting Paredes, but still they're going a level a year, and so for most of the next season, Eduardo Paredes fools hitters in A Ball to the tune of a 1.77 ERA with a 12.6 K/9 and an even more impressive 1.7 BB/9.  The Angels decide it might be a good idea to promote Paredes after he's completely fatigued from an unusually large workload in A Ball and he gets to the Cal League and is simply "OK" for the first time in his career.  

The Angels send him back to Inland Empire to start 2016 and Paredes, armed with a fresh arm sits batters down with no issues, so he is promoted to AA, as a 21 year old, which is pretty remarkable. While in Arkansas, we see a strange thing happen.  Parades' ERA remains a very solid 3.35, but for the first time in his career, he isn't striking out as many batters, which suggests that after five years of the Angels playing it conservative, they seem to have finally found a level in which Eduardo can grow by facing competition that challenges him.  It's about time. 

From the scouting side of things, Paredes attacked hitters with a low three-quarters, borderline sidearm release.  He still uses his legs to generate plenty of momentum going forward, and there doesn't appear to be too much stress put on his shoulders or elbow.  Eduardo uses two different fastballs.  The first is a 4-seam fastball that sits 95-97 with cut action, the second is a 2-seam fastball that sits 92-94 with sinking action.  Both are regarded as "plus" pitches.  Parades also throws a curve that he keeps low in the zone.  It isn't a "plus" pitch, but it does serve as a consistent change of pace pitch.  Finally, Eduardo has been experimenting with a change up the past couple seasons that has improved to the point where he can use it. 

Paredes is a guy that has a few different ways to get a hitter out.  The heat will generate lots of swings and misses, but the curve and change up have created quite the uncomfortable at bat for both lefties and righties. 

What to expect next season: Eduardo should head to AAA after being protected on the Angels 40-man roster this offseason.  But, with the way the Angels have handled Paredes so far in his career, it wouldn't be surprising to see him back in AA again, even after showing that he should be promoted.  If the Angels bullpen doesn't round into form, and if they find themselves contending for a playoff spot, we should see Paredes in Anaheim this season.  If things go south quickly, it's likely the Angels will delay Paredes' arrival until 2018 so as to gain an additional year of control. 

Estimated Time of Arrival: Middle of 2017, Paredes' age 22 season. 

Grade as a prospect: C+ 

Grades are given from the 20-80 scouting scale.  20-being non-existent ability, 80-being the best I’ve ever seen.  MLB average is 50.

[HaloMilliVanilli]

I like it.  Let's get him to Arizona for spring ball and see if he can make the team.

[Second Base]

I'll put it as easy and as short as possible.  I firmly believe that Eduardo is either ready to be a VERY good reliever in the major leagues, or he's VERY close to being ready.  Either way, the future is bright.  

[Angel Oracle]

By 2018, 7-8-9 innings = Middleton, Parades, and Bedrosian?

[Second Base]

9 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

By 2018, 7-8-9 innings = Middleton, Parades, and Bedrosian?

Yeah I could see that. They'll never see a fastball slower than 96.

[Troll Daddy]

Good stuff!

[ettin]

12 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

By 2018, 7-8-9 innings = Middleton, Parades, and Bedrosian?

Middleton, Meyer, and Bedrosian with Paredes as a middle inning guy, LOLZ!

Honestly though if we have just two of those guys breakout as we hope the Angels bullpen will be in a lot better shape. Bedrosian is basically there just need one more to step up.

[Glen]

18 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I'll put it as easy and as short as possible.  I firmly believe that Eduardo is either ready to be a VERY good reliever in the major leagues, or he's VERY close to being ready.  Either way, the future is bright.  

TL, DR.

[Angel Oracle]

20 minutes ago, ettin said:

Middleton, Meyer, and Bedrosian with Paredes as a middle inning guy, LOLZ!

Honestly though if we have just two of those guys breakout as we hope the Angels bullpen will be in a lot better shape. Bedrosian is basically there just need one more to step up.

This is giving me some thought as to the Halos reason to not sign anyone of note for the pen.

That is 4 young dynamic arms being talked about.   They must be putting the future backend pen hopes on them, and then add in Bailey, Guerra, Ramirez (if not starting), Morin, Alvarez, etc. as the support in the pen.

[totdprods]

Pace yourselves. I'm as optimistic as anyone, but for every Bedrosian, Middleton, Meyer, Paredes we mentioned, there's also been comparable excitement for Arredondo, Frieri, Jepsen, Morin, Martinez-Mesa, Kohn, Walden, RJ Alvarez, Reckling, Tillman, Pena, Diaz, Maronde, Sappington, Reynolds, etc.

I still feel it'd be a poor decision to pass on the still strong stable of relief pitchers available. Eppler just needs to maintain the same spending philosophy that he has adhered to so far - fewest years possible, fewest dollars possible. For those reasons, the guys like Holland, Feliz, Logan, Hochevar are probably not happening. But our chances of contending would be greatly improved if we offered someone like JP Howell or Jim Henderson a 1/$3m, or Michael Barrett a ST invite. Guys who, if they suck, we can jettison halfway through the year and only be out a mil or two and give a young guy an opp. Guys who, if they're proving effective, will take a lot of pressure off youngsters needing to perform, which tends to be a big deal for relievers. They'd also be attractive deadline trade bait.

If someone like Blevins or Wood or Feliz are going to cost 3/$15m, then I can see the benefit in passing them up and using our depth, but no reason to not take a flier on a cheap one-year vet arm. It can pay big dividends. And I imagine that's why nothing is happening right now. Eppler is waiting for those arms to come to that realization and sign in late Jan/early Feb.

 

[vladdy#27]

What is up with Paredes HR/9 more doubling his career average this past season?

Last season his home ballparks in Single-A and Double-A are both pitcher friendly, did the HR come on the road?

[Docwaukee]

The reason they haven't moved him up as fast as one would expect is because he got torched vs. lefties in 2016.  Some of that was bad luck, but my guess is that they hit him hard.  So the halos want that changeup as a more consistent pitch before they throw him to the wolves.   It's hard to imagine that he'll ever be a dominant major league reliever without a pitch that can get lefties out.  As such, I don't think we'll see him this year unless it's in september or that third pitch catches up to the rest of his stuff. 

[totdprods]

Henderson may not be the most exciting guy - he walks more than you'd like, gives up a few too many home runs, and neither his ERA, WHIP, or FIP or all that pretty, but his career K/9 is 11.6 - higher than our team leader in '16, Bedrosian. 

The Angels staff last year had a K/9 of 7.19 - 30th out of 30. Strikeouts aren't everything, but we obviously could see some improvement there, and it's an area where Henderson could give us a bit of a hand on the cheap.

Personally, I'd go all out and nab Henderson for 1/$2m and go for it with Boone Logan, 3/$15m. Boone owns an 11.2 K/9 over the last five seasons, and being a lefty, he'd maintain some value even if he declined into a lefty specialist. Henderson and Logan are both 6'5" as well, and I think it'd add some variety and new angles to our pen. Both of these guys are gonna walk a few more than we'd like but I think it'd solidify our pen significantly. 

[Angel Oracle]

Henderson would be an Eppler type of acquisition, smart money and some potential.  

It took 9 seasons to get to the bigs.   He had a really good 2013 season for the Brewers, 2.75 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 75 innings.   But he missed most of 2014 (injured), and pitched all of 2015 in the minors.   He finally resurfaced with the Mets in 2016, with a somewhat high 4.11 ERA and 1.37 WHIP and 8 HRs allowed in just 44 innings, and his Ks/9 inn were the lowest as a big leaguer (40 in 35 innings).

He is already 34.

Henderson, eh?

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Henderson would be an Eppler type of acquisition, smart money and some potential.  

It took 9 seasons to get to the bigs.   He had a really good 2013 season for the Brewers, 2.75 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 75 innings.   But he missed most of 2014 (injured), and pitched all of 2015 in the minors.   He finally resurfaced with the Mets in 2016, with a somewhat high 4.11 ERA and 1.37 WHIP and 8 HRs allowed in just 44 innings, and his Ks/9 inn were the lowest as a big leaguer (40 in 35 innings).

He is already 34.

Henderson, eh?

He isn't great, but he should come very cheaply, and one area where he excels is striking people out, an area where we really need help. Cheap, proven, vet strikeouts. Easy to cut or deal depending on the circumstances.

I think he'd be great as a 6th inning guy, the first guy in when the SP gives up a lead off hit or two as they hit their pitch limit. Someone who can come in and likely get a K to squash it then and there. He may blow it then and there, but at least it'd be early enough to have a chance still, with your better arms still in the pen. Or he'd be good in a situation where one of your better relievers are struggling to complete an inning but already have two outs. Bring him in and hope for the punch out. Adam Dunn was called a three-true outcome hitter - a walk, a homer, or a strikeout - and I see Henderson as a sort of pitcher equivalent. There's a lot to not like there, but a third of the time you're gonna get what you want, and the other third, a walk, still leaves you with a chance to get what you want on the next hitter.

[Angelsjunky]

I haven't thought about Fabio Martinez-Mesa since March 13, 2013.

[Troll Daddy]

Sometimes it's better to throw a carrot out there for our young pitchers ... if you catch my drift. 

 

[totdprods]

18 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Sometimes it's better to throw a carrot out there for our young pitchers ... if you catch my drift. 

 

I think they will have plenty of opportunity, even if we added a pen arm or two, especially if they fall in the same line as Eppler's other FAs with one-year commitments. 

At the risk of sounding too pessimistic, I hope Eppler has a sense of urgency this year and is quick to make bold moves for the future. I'm not suggesting a rebuild, or to throw in the towel at the first sign of trouble, but there are numerous small moves that can, and I think should, be made early in the year. I hope any impending FA is basically on the market right off the bat - even in ST - and that he aggressively promotes our AAA depth throughout the year whenever any opportunity presents itself. Don't overthink the value of keeping Escobar, Street, Nolasco, Maybin, etc. if someone offers something decent. It may be our best chance at getting a beneficial long-term piece for those guys. If something comes along, pull the trigger and move up a AAA player for an audition. If gets an opportunity similar to the Simmons trade, where he can get a legit long-term young talent, he should consider it. 

He is going to fill a lot of holes next offseason and any head start he can get to addressing that should supersede hope and prayer playoff hopes in '17. Challenge our depth to contribute midseason and push that way. Get Paredes, Lamb, Pounders, Cowart, Middleton some opportunity  before they get brought up at the end of year, when the season is already lost, and see what fire they bring into that environment.

[ettin]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

Pace yourselves. I'm as optimistic as anyone, but for every Bedrosian, Middleton, Meyer, Paredes we mentioned, there's also been comparable excitement for Arredondo, Frieri, Jepsen, Morin, Martinez-Mesa, Kohn, Walden, RJ Alvarez, Reckling, Tillman, Pena, Diaz, Maronde, Sappington, Reynolds, etc.

I still feel it'd be a poor decision to pass on the still strong stable of relief pitchers available. Eppler just needs to maintain the same spending philosophy that he has adhered to so far - fewest years possible, fewest dollars possible. For those reasons, the guys like Holland, Feliz, Logan, Hochevar are probably not happening. But our chances of contending would be greatly improved if we offered someone like JP Howell or Jim Henderson a 1/$3m, or Michael Barrett a ST invite. Guys who, if they suck, we can jettison halfway through the year and only be out a mil or two and give a young guy an opp. Guys who, if they're proving effective, will take a lot of pressure off youngsters needing to perform, which tends to be a big deal for relievers. They'd also be attractive deadline trade bait.

If someone like Blevins or Wood or Feliz are going to cost 3/$15m, then I can see the benefit in passing them up and using our depth, but no reason to not take a flier on a cheap one-year vet arm. It can pay big dividends. And I imagine that's why nothing is happening right now. Eppler is waiting for those arms to come to that realization and sign in late Jan/early Feb.

 

More to the point the Angels do not want to start service clocks on all these young relievers if they do not have too which is why, in part, I advocated for one more relief signing in the Primer.

I did not realize Henderson had elected free agency so yes I agree he would be an interesting choice in terms of his ability to get batters out. I still feel like Hochevar, Swarzak, Holland, or even Feliz are still within our ability to acquire. At this point in the game Eppler is riding out the last few million in available payroll so someone like Henderson could prove to be attractive enough, despite his extreme fly ball tendencies, to pick up on a, likely, Minor League contract.

[totdprods]

I think Feliz and Holland will either go somewhere where they have a clear opportunity to close so they can go after big money next year, and we have too many chefs in that kitchen already. Short of that, I think they'd still receive strong multi-year offers from contending clubs. Just don't see them as a fit in Anaheim. If we sign anyone to a contract like that, I think it'd be a lefty reliever. 

Hochevar is definitely one I'd like too. Not seeing much appeal to Swarzak, a ST invite, sure.

[Brent Maguire]

One name not being thrown around enough, IMO, is Tommy Hunter. Back surgery kept him out a good chunk of last year but since he switched full time to being a reliever, he's been pretty darn good, averaging between 0.3-0.7 WAR the past 4 years. He generates lots of grounders and doesn't walk many, making him a fit with the Angels defense. A 1 year deal would be great but I'd even be willing to throw a club or player option in there as well based on how many innings he reaches in 2017. 

[ettin]

43 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I think Feliz and Holland will either go somewhere where they have a clear opportunity to close so they can go after big money next year, and we have too many chefs in that kitchen already. Short of that, I think they'd still receive strong multi-year offers from contending clubs. Just don't see them as a fit in Anaheim. If we sign anyone to a contract like that, I think it'd be a lefty reliever. 

Hochevar is definitely one I'd like too. Not seeing much appeal to Swarzak, a ST invite, sure.

Go look at Swarzak's peripherals for last year. He went exclusively to FB/SL combo. Only scary thing is the high SL usage but there is definitely something going on with him. His LD% went down to 10.7% (!!!). A small part of that could be luck but when you reduce your LD% down so dramatically it has a corresponding large reduction in BABIP too. His fastball and slider both adjusted up in the zone a bit which could also lend to the difference in how hitters are seeing and swinging at the ball. He is also a former Yankee which means Eppler is familiar with him which makes me think that between the noticeable changes and history there may be strong interest.

Oh and his fastball velocity jumped up 1 mph in 2016 over 2015 and his slider jumped 3 mph (probably due to switching out of a starters role).

Finally he made six starts in AAA last year and is a former starter so there might be a small amount of appeal there as well considering the type of pitchers Eppler has gone after this year.

[Chuck]

On 1/6/2017 at 8:52 AM, Scotty@AW said:

Yeah I could see that. They'll never see a fastball slower than 96.

That would be great!