Initial Ideas on How to Improve the Angels This Offseason

[Hubs]

50 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I like a lot of the suggestions but there are truly a couple key things that are going to significantly move the needle. 

-First and foremost is Richards.  Getting 200 innings of 3.5 era to replace the 200 innings of piecemeal 5+ era is about 40-50 runs.  A lot of our other pitching performances wash each other out.  

the problem with the above is it's likelihood of happening and the collateral damage if it doesn't.  Even with some improved depth moves this off season, you aren't even coming close to replacing that level of production.  

 

Here is something I found interesting.  Last year, we were competitive.  We won 85 games and had some obvious holes.  

If you isolate the SP differences from this year to last:

2015 offense/defense + RP WAR  of 17.8 + 2.9 = 20.7

2016 offense/defense + RP WAR of 21.6 + 0.3 = 21.9

2015 SP WAR 8.7

2016 SP WAR 5.6

Richards 2015 WAR 2.6.  

The worst 200ip WAR for 2016 -1.6 

Exchanging 2015 Richards for the worst of 2016 makes up 4.2 WAR.  

The thing people don't realize is: 

1. It's really difficult to find a 3 WAR starter.  

2. Having one doesn't just add that value to the staff, but it also negates the negative value of what you replace.  

3. There isn't another pitcher available capable of performing even close to his level.

4. Our eggs are in one basket.  Again.  

 

I just want a guy capable of pitching 200 innings besides Richards. 33 starts of 6 2/3 innings average = 220 innings. 33 starts averaging 6 is 198. I'd honestly bring back CJ Wilson over any starter on the free agent market if he could guarantee making 33 or 34 starts. The most sought after is Rich Hill who is older and also injury prone? Doug Fister? Ivan Nova? None of these are upper echelon starters. The Rays are going to get a ton for Jake Odorrozzi. And Verlander may also be on the block. 

I do think the Angels pitching has to be better in 2017 than 2016. There were just too many injuries. If you look back at the last ten seasons, the Angels actually had the best year statistically with their pitching in 2011 or 2015. And in both years they had injuries. Kazmir was ineffective and injured after one start in 2011. Chatwood filled in well as did Williams, and Pinero sucked. But the top three guys, Haren, Santana, and Weaver dominated. In 2015, they lost Skaggs to injury, but Shoemaker came out of nowhere to dominate along with solid performances from other guys.

Both seasons they allowed around 630 runs. I think the Angels staff as currently constructed could match it. I just worry about the depth. They need another guy for a mid 4 ERA and 190-200 innings. 

Still, there is no way they have as many injuries as they did in 2016…but they will have one or two. 

Adding someone like Santiago (if non-tendered) or Fister or Nova is a good way to round out the rotation. So the Angels can focus on putting runs on the board in FA. Namely with a solid left fielder and some production out of 2nd base.

 

[tdawg87]

Rotation options suck this year. Sign some guys for depth (Wilson, Chacin and Collmenter). Stand pat on offense because there's nothing available that will make a huge impact. Goes balls fucking out on the bullpen. Being back Andrew Miller. Sign Ziegler and Melancon. Game over after 5 innings.

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Rotation options suck this year. Sign some guys for depth (Wilson, Chacin and Collmenter). Stand pat on offense because there's nothing available that will make a huge impact. Goes balls fucking out on the bullpen. Being back Andrew Miller. Sign Ziegler and Melancon. Game over after 5 innings.

I'm really diggin' the idea of filling the pen with a Chapman/Jansen and a couple of Logan, Chacin, Bailey, Chamberlain, Feliz. Sign a Jon Jay/Angel Pagan/Rajai Davis type, and weigh trade offers for a SP or 2B prospect for Perez/Bandy, opting to sign a back-up C if you move one. Don't think you really cause any harm this way and you have automaic improvement in the pen and LF and a good at improving 2B and C. No crazy contacts, no lost prospects.

[ettin]

On 10/24/2016 at 2:23 PM, totdprods said:

@Hubs they're more likely to try Valbuena at 2B than move Escobar there. I'm pretty sure they've even confirmed aloud he won't be moved from 3B.

 

[Lou]

trade our roster for Cleveland's and send them $$ to offset the salaries 

BOOM! 

Lock it up 

[Lou]

then trade Napoli for Jason Heyward 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Im really leary on penciling richards in next year. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

11 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Im really leary on penciling richards in next year. 

I know, right?...

 

it's almost the Kiss of Death to his elbow......

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

12 hours ago, ettin said:

 

So, is that JF assuming he won't/can't move positions? Or, has he asked Escobar that previously? and was told to GTFO?..... Well, I doubt he'd do that.... Don't want to ask tough questions to Multi-Millionaires!.....

[Hubs]

Initially I was high on bringing back Escobar, but if his defense is that bad, and he can't move to 2nd (which he was preparing to do before we traded for him), then I'm not sure we exercise it. 

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Initially I was high on bringing back Escobar, but if his defense is that bad, and he can't move to 2nd (which he was preparing to do before we traded for him), then I'm not sure we exercise it. 

I mean, I guess it's not impossible that they decide to decline his option ($1m buyout) if they feel really comfortable either with Marte as a budget everyday 3B or that they can definitely sign an improvement, like a more well-rounded player such as Turner or Valbuena, but you both of those guys are going to cost far more than Escobar's $7m, both in years and dollars, and signing either is no guarantee. In addition, neither of those guys are lead-off hitters, and I don't really want us to rely on Calhoun, Simmons, or any of the available FAs as a lead-off guy.

I only see them declining Escobar's option if they either plan on spending absolutely no money (and going with Marte) or spending a ton of money (pursuing two big splashes) and I don't see them going that extreme in either direction.

[Docwaukee]

declining Escobar's option would be foolish.  you could get a halfway decent reliever at least.  

shortening games is so important for next year.  but it will likely be bullpen by afterthought once again.  Street is owed 9mil for 2017 with a 1m buyout for 2018.  I think he'll be given the opportunity to close games so I don't see us pursuing one of the top line guys.  From there it will be what you see is what you get.  We'll probably bring in a couple of castoffs and maybe sign a second or third tier guy for a couple years.  But I just don't see them making significant changes much to my dismay.  

we're at $140 mil.  I think Arte's comfort level is maxed out in the mid $150 range.  So we'll add a platoon partner for Marte in LF and maybe a starter on a 1-3yr deal.  I think it'll be Nova.  

What'll we'll hear early on - 'we're getting some people back healthy which is the biggest factor to our success in 2017.  We'll look to improve our depth in certain areas but we feel good about the team when everyone is able to take the field'  

= 85 wins.  

I am mostly looking forward to Arte's new book "Getting down to Economics:  Shit I think of while sitting on my Yacht' or the latest installment of 'Scioscia and Eppler sitting in a tree...'

[IEAngelsfan]

Doc, I hope you're wrong about Arte's budget comfort level for next year.  If they are only going to bring in more scrubs, it's going to be a long season and I may have to re-introduce alcohol back into my life.

[Hubs]

I suppose Escobar is tradeable.

I hope Arte goes 2004, signs two pitchers and two hitters. I hoped he doesn't have a huge budget restriction, but even so, Josh's contract comes off next year. I'm sure he'd rather save money next year than saving it this year, after a successful playoff run.

 

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I suppose Escobar is tradeable.

I hope Arte goes 2004, signs two pitchers and two hitters. I hoped he doesn't have a huge budget restriction, but even so, Josh's contract comes off next year. I'm sure he'd rather save money next year than saving it this year, after a successful playoff run.

 

I think they can probably only afford to add one 'big splash' between this offseason and next. Maybe two if they feel they can trim some salary elsewhere or go very cheap on other options, or if the luxury tax goes way up. Given that, next offseason's free agents are much more appealing, including a host of top SPs.

 

[Hubs]

I looked at 17 vs. 18 and I only think the starting pitching is better.  There aren't a lot of impact bats that fit. Eric Hosmer had a "meh" 2016 after a good 2015. But if he produces well in 17, he's a legit bat. But they have two guys at 1st now. Brett Lawrie and Kendrick head the 2B class, While Trevor Plouffe, Mike Moustakas, and Todd Frazier head the 3B crop. At the corner OF, JD Martinez, Carlos Gonzalez and Lorenzo Cain. None are super exciting.

There are a lot of starting pitching candidates I'd love headlined by Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish.

Still, adding two quality bats (Valbuena, Turner, Walker, Cespedes, Fowler, Desmond, Trumbo), a solid hard throwing reliever to replace Smith and Salas, and an innings eater like Doug Fister is not a bad haul.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

22 hours ago, ettin said:

 

Re draw home plate like he did, and tell him hes at 3rd when hes really at 2B

[Hubs]

Well, Maybin fits in the mold of what David was saying in this blog. He wanted Brett Gardner and a 2B prospect for Alcantara and Morin. Now if they traded Morin for a 2B prospect, it would be pretty close.

Maybin (2016) 94 games, .315 BA, .383 OBP, .418 SLG, .801 OPS. 14 2B, 5 3B, 4 HR, 15 SB. Solid defensively.

Gardner (2016) 148 games, .261 BA, .351 OBP, .362 SLG, .713 OPS, 22 2B, 6 3B, 7 HR, 16 SB. Solid defensively.

[totdprods]

Scooter Gennett from the Brewers is worth looking into.

[Hubs]

Is Gennett going to be non-tendered? He's arb eligible for the first time and has been a 1 WAR player for them. I'd expect him to command more in a trade than we want to pay. 

[totdprods]

Just now, Hubs said:

Is Gennett going to be non-tendered? He's arb eligible for the first time and has been a 1 WAR player for them. I'd expect him to command more in a trade than we want to pay. 

There's a good chance he will be non-tendered I read. They may move Villar to 2B to accommodate a SS prospect they have. 

Derek Dietrich from Miami is another guy I'd watch. Twins have a great young MIF in Jorge Polanco as well. May require a Bandy/Perez though. Rays have Forsythe, Miller, and Franklin and desperately need catching help too.

[tdawg87]

I'd like Eppler to allocate the majority of funds this offseason on the bullpen. 

For example, offer Brad Ziegler 2/22. Also bring back Chacin. Maybe even look at a Boone Logan type to fill the solid lefty role.

Sign Ivan Nova since he'll be relatively cheap and still has some upside. Plus pitching away from Yankees Stadium and the AL East could do wonders for him. I'd go something like 3/36. 

Sign Aybar for 2nd base for the lulz.

[tomsred]

On 11/4/2016 at 11:22 PM, tdawg87 said:

I'd like Eppler to allocate the majority of funds this offseason on the bullpen. 

For example, offer Brad Ziegler 2/22. Also bring back Chacin. Maybe even look at a Boone Logan type to fill the solid lefty role.

Sign Ivan Nova since he'll be relatively cheap and still has some upside. Plus pitching away from Yankees Stadium and the AL East could do wonders for him. I'd go something like 3/36. 

Sign Aybar for 2nd base for the lulz.

Let's just sign Aybar, the rest won't matter.  Baseball is first and foremost entertainment, right?

[Angel Oracle]

Bring the Aybar dance back, just for sheets and giggles.

[Dave Saltzer]

On 11/3/2016 at 4:57 PM, Hubs said:

Well, Maybin fits in the mold of what David was saying in this blog. He wanted Brett Gardner and a 2B prospect for Alcantara and Morin. Now if they traded Morin for a 2B prospect, it would be pretty close.

Maybin (2016) 94 games, .315 BA, .383 OBP, .418 SLG, .801 OPS. 14 2B, 5 3B, 4 HR, 15 SB. Solid defensively.

Gardner (2016) 148 games, .261 BA, .351 OBP, .362 SLG, .713 OPS, 22 2B, 6 3B, 7 HR, 16 SB. Solid defensively.

Thanks. That was one of my initial thoughts about the trade for Maybin except Maybin costs less than Gardner, meaning more money could be used for 2B or the bullpen. I actually like the trade quite a bit, as I'm not that high on Alcantara. When I've seen him, his pitches have been flat and didn't move much side to side. He just tried to blow it by guys rather than actually locating it or moving it. That works at the low levels, but the hitters can and will catch up to it. I hope he figures things out, as he's a nice kid, but I'm not sure how it will play out.