Initial Ideas on How to Improve the Angels This Offseason

[Hubs]

I disagree on Gardner. In your trade package, he's the guy they include to save money and Refsnyder is the real prize. But don't they plan on starting Refsnyder? Or at least in a platoon? Granted for 2 mediocre relievers, this package makes some sense, though the Angels would have to add a lower class A hitting prospect or starting pitching prospect to make it worth the Yankees while.

Still, Gardner is trending down. He has little pop and high strikeouts. For what he is being paid, he is not worth it. Not when you can add a guy in FA for the same or similar price.

I do like that you've identified your targets and found a way to get them all. I agree they might sign a veteran catcher. But the major needs are at 2B and LF. They need to add a starter and a reliever. I'd watch the non-tender line and snap one of those guys up, should they be able to. (Santiago back anyone?)

Hellickson I think stays in the NL. 

 

 

 

 

[Hubs]

As for Marte as a full time option, one has to look at the mandate of the club. Are they to be a competitor, or just competitive, or just a rebuild for 2018? 

The Angels had a -10 run differential, but Texas allowed 30 more runs than they did with all of the injuries they suffered. They also scored 50 more, but the differential doesn't work out for either team. The Angels should've won closer to 80 games with that differential, while Texas should've won 82 instead of 95. The M's should've won 88 and the Astros were actually right there at 84-78. 

My point is with a few fixes, the Angels will be right back in it in 2017, so maybe they want a more dependable option than Marte, while reserving him for platoon status.

 

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Still, Gardner is trending down. He has little pop and high strikeouts. For what he is being paid, he is not worth it. Not when you can add a guy in FA for the same or similar price.

We can't be too picky in LF though. We aren't really going to get the ideal LF - there isn't one available in FA, and there isn't anyone we could afford on the trade market. 

Angels LF in '16: .204/.271/.313/.584
Angels LF in '15: .216/.275/.317/.592
Angels LF in '14: .234/.293/.336/.629
Angels LF in '13: .275/.330/.392/.722 - And Mike Trout was 45 of these. 

For 600 games, we have been godawful in LF, and Brett Gardner, with all of his warts, is still a massive, massive upgrade over what has been out there. He strikes out a lot, doesn't have much pop, and costs a lot - but he won't cost a lot to trade for, gets on base at an above-average clip, can steal 15-20 bags and play at least decent defense, and has consistently been a 3-4 WAR player with a .700+ OPS, and is only under contract for two more years. By then, we should have payroll or a prospect ready to take over. 

If all it cost was Morin, Alcantara, and even a low-level lotto ticket prospect and absorbing some salary, I'd do it, even more so if we got Refsnyder or another prospect back.
 

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Hubs said:

My point is with a few fixes, the Angels will be right back in it in 2017, so maybe they want a more dependable option than Marte, while reserving him for platoon status.

Exactly, we benefit a lot from having Marte as a bench/platoon bat still. Gives us a very, very strong in-house replacement. It's not like we'd be bumping him back to SLC. We'd be strengthening our bench and depth by keeping him there. 

[Dave Saltzer]

11 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Exactly, we benefit a lot from having Marte as a bench/platoon bat still. Gives us a very, very strong in-house replacement. It's not like we'd be bumping him back to SLC. We'd be strengthening our bench and depth by keeping him there. 

I agree. I want Marte to get around 250-300 ABs and maybe become a replacement at 3B. If he's really killing it again, we could consider moving him to 1B and trading Cron, but I'm not ready to make that call right now.

[Hubs]

I agree we need to get a left fielder in 2017, but I think the Angels need to aim higher. I saw on Bleacher Report the Angels ending up with Ryan Braun, I don't think the Angels have the ammunition for a guy like Braun, but Yasiel Puig and Brandon McCarthy isn't a tremendous haul. Granted there were likely prospects headed to the Brew Crew from the Dogs, but reportedly not a top guy. So what like Trace Thompson? Someone else?

Cespedes or Braun is the type of bat I'd try to add and then get a low cost high OBP guy for 2nd or 3rd, if possible.

Luis Valbuena had an off year and is a FA, he is an excellent 3rd baseman and good with the bat. Granted he's not a top OBP type, but he'd be a valued add. And at least a solid platoon option with Marte at 3rd. 

 

 

[Dave Saltzer]

17 minutes ago, totdprods said:

We can't be too picky in LF though. We aren't really going to get the ideal LF - there isn't one available in FA, and there isn't anyone we could afford on the trade market. 

Angels LF in '16: .204/.271/.313/.584
Angels LF in '15: .216/.275/.317/.592
Angels LF in '14: .234/.293/.336/.629
Angels LF in '13: .275/.330/.392/.722 - And Mike Trout was 45 of these. 

For 600 games, we have been godawful in LF, and Brett Gardner, with all of his warts, is still a massive, massive upgrade over what has been out there. He strikes out a lot, doesn't have much pop, and costs a lot - but he won't cost a lot to trade for, gets on base at an above-average clip, can steal 15-20 bags and play at least decent defense, and has consistently been a 3-4 WAR player with a .700+ OPS, and is only under contract for two more years. By then, we should have payroll or a prospect ready to take over. 

If all it cost was Morin, Alcantara, and even a low-level lotto ticket prospect and absorbing some salary, I'd do it, even more so if we got Refsnyder or another prospect back.
 

Last year was a down year for Gardner and he posted a .261/.351/.362 slash line. How much better would that be than what we've seen since 2013?

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

Last year was a down year for Gardner and he posted a .261/.351/.362 slash line. How much better would that be than what we've seen since 2013?

He could even trend down a little further and he'd still be a huge improvement. He still managed a .713 OPS, a 99 OPS+, and 3.4 WAR, which would have tied him for third on the team in position player WAR with Kole Calhoun. 

[Hubs]

Dave that is a huge increase, but if he slips more, at $13 M per, is he worth the risk?

Or is he another GMJ?

[Erstad Grit]

Replace Nova with Hellickson and I'm in 

[Hubs]

Second Basemen

Gordon Beckham (30)
Emmanuel Burriss (32)
Chris Coghlan (32)
Daniel Descalso (30)
Stephen Drew (34)
Johnny Giavotella (29)
Grant Green (29)
Kelly Johnson (35)
Tyler Ladendorf (29)
Jimmy Paredes (28)
Steve Pearce (34)
Eric Sogard (31)
Ruben Tejada (27)
Chase Utley (38)
Neil Walker (31)

No one on this list impresses me. 

Third Basemen

Yunel Escobar (34) — $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Aaron Hill (35)
Ruben Tejada (27)
Justin Turner (32)
Luis Valbuena (31)

We're better off picking up Escobar's option and moving him to 2nd, then trying for Turner or Valbuena. 

Then, in left, Gardner makes sense. 

Left Fielders

Nori Aoki (35)
Gregor Blanco (33)
Nick Buss (30)
Yoenis Cespedes (31) — can opt out of remaining two years, $47.5MM on current contract
Chris Coghlan (32)
Coco Crisp (37) — $13MM vesting/club option with a $750K buyout
Rajai Davis (36)
Alejandro De Aza (33)
Ian Desmond (31)
Matt Holliday (37) — $17MM club option with $1MM buyout
Craig Gentry (33)
Cole Gillespie (33)
David Lough (31)
Brandon Moss (33)
Angel Pagan (35)
Jimmy Paredes (28)
Alex Presley (31)
Ryan Raburn (36)
Colby Rasmus (30)
Michael Saunders (30)
Logan Schafer (30)
Eric Thames (30)

Beacause most of these guys aren't significant improvements and the ones who are going to cost a lot.

 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Hubs said:

Dave that is a huge increase, but if he slips more, at $13 M per, is he worth the risk?

Or is he another GMJ?

Maybe not, but if it also means we get Refsnyder and don't have to throw millions at 2B it's definitely worth it. 
I think Dave's big point is that in a theoretical Gardner trade, because we're absorbing salary from the Yanks, we get a prospect (or Reffy) added in, and that's really where the value makes a big difference.

[Dave Saltzer]

3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I agree we need to get a left fielder in 2017, but I think the Angels need to aim higher. I saw on Bleacher Report the Angels ending up with Ryan Braun, I don't think the Angels have the ammunition for a guy like Braun, but Yasiel Puig and Brandon McCarthy isn't a tremendous haul. Granted there were likely prospects headed to the Brew Crew from the Dogs, but reportedly not a top guy. So what like Trace Thompson? Someone else?

Cespedes or Braun is the type of bat I'd try to add and then get a low cost high OBP guy for 2nd or 3rd, if possible.

Luis Valbuena had an off year and is a FA, he is an excellent 3rd baseman and good with the bat. Granted he's not a top OBP type, but he'd be a valued add. And at least a solid platoon option with Marte at 3rd. 

 

 

I don't want to tie up the dollars and years it would take to land Cespedes when we have Jones and Hermosillo in the pipeline (I believe Hermosillo is underrated by many). Gardner fits our timeline and allows us to use money to shore up other problems. I don't think we have the talent to land Braun. 

 

As for Puig, the Dodgers have a huge problem. They want teams to pay what he's worth for his potential talent, not what his actual talent has been, and won't deduct anything for his serious clubhouse issues. I've talked with several scouts who have said that the Dodgers are unrealistic in what they want for him. Until they drop their price, it will be nearly impossible to move him according to what I've been told. I've also been told if they really wanted to move him, they could have at several points, and chose not too. I really doubt that they would trade him across town to us.

[Dave Saltzer]

5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Dave that is a huge increase, but if he slips more, at $13 M per, is he worth the risk?

Or is he another GMJ?

The risk is offset by adding Refsnyder (and the risk back to them is offset with Alcantara). Even if he slips a little more (which I doubt since he's still 32, will be hitting in front of Trout and Pujols and has maintained his OB skills even if his power dropped a bit), he'd still be a big upgrade offensively for us. And, most importantly, he only has 2 years guaranteed left, so we're off the hook in 2 years, or we can pick up the option if it is worth it.

[totdprods]

It was also brought up in the Cespedes thread, but if Marte continued his pace over a full year, he'd be remarkably close to matching that production for a fraction of the price. I know that goes against what I said about Marte being a wonderful bench/depth piece in '17, but if you're talking about him playing LF full-time or a 30-year old dude about to make $125-150m, I think I'd take my chances with Marte.

[Dave Saltzer]

6 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Second Basemen

Gordon Beckham (30)
Emmanuel Burriss (32)
Chris Coghlan (32)
Daniel Descalso (30)
Stephen Drew (34)
Johnny Giavotella (29)
Grant Green (29)
Kelly Johnson (35)
Tyler Ladendorf (29)
Jimmy Paredes (28)
Steve Pearce (34)
Eric Sogard (31)
Ruben Tejada (27)
Chase Utley (38)
Neil Walker (31)

No one on this list impresses me. 

Third Basemen

Yunel Escobar (34) — $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Aaron Hill (35)
Ruben Tejada (27)
Justin Turner (32)
Luis Valbuena (31)

We're better off picking up Escobar's option and moving him to 2nd, then trying for Turner or Valbuena. 

Then, in left, Gardner makes sense. 

Left Fielders

Nori Aoki (35)
Gregor Blanco (33)
Nick Buss (30)
Yoenis Cespedes (31) — can opt out of remaining two years, $47.5MM on current contract
Chris Coghlan (32)
Coco Crisp (37) — $13MM vesting/club option with a $750K buyout
Rajai Davis (36)
Alejandro De Aza (33)
Ian Desmond (31)
Matt Holliday (37) — $17MM club option with $1MM buyout
Craig Gentry (33)
Cole Gillespie (33)
David Lough (31)
Brandon Moss (33)
Angel Pagan (35)
Jimmy Paredes (28)
Alex Presley (31)
Ryan Raburn (36)
Colby Rasmus (30)
Michael Saunders (30)
Logan Schafer (30)
Eric Thames (30)

Beacause most of these guys aren't significant improvements and the ones who are going to cost a lot.

 

I cannot in any way see Scioscia and the front office letting Escobar play 2B. His defense is barely tolerable at times at 3B, and at 2B, would cost the team too many wins.

[Hubs]

Jones and Hermosillio? Seriously? Jones reached low-A, and Hermosillio, is going to AA next year. It's a long way to the majors for either of them.

We only have Calhoun for three more years, so worse case, they can move on from him or put him at 1st if one of these elite bats is raking in left. It's a good problem to have.

 

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, Dave Saltzer said:

I cannot in any way see Scioscia and the front office letting Escobar play 2B. His defense is barely tolerable at times at 3B, and at 2B, would cost the team too many wins.

Dave, if they don't see him at 2nd, I can see them trying for an upgrade and trading Escobar and his option. Is his arm or his range the issue?

 

[Dave Saltzer]

4 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Jones and Hermosillio? Seriously? Jones reached low-A, and Hermosillio, is going to AA next year. It's a long way to the majors for either of them.

We only have Calhoun for three more years, so worse case, they can move on from him or put him at 1st if one of these elite bats is raking in left. It's a good problem to have.

 

My bet is that Jones opens the season at IE (High A) and goes to AA by the middle of the season. Hermosillo will start in AA. While it's a long ways to the majors, guys who get on base and have speed tend to make it more than guys who don't. Their skills don't tend to drop as much from level to level. Both are young and still likely to grow in their skill sets quite a bit. I know that the Angels are very high on Jones and I'm a bit more optimistic about Hermosillo than other national observers.

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Dave, if they don't see him at 2nd, I can see them trying for an upgrade and trading Escobar and his option. Is his arm or his range the issue?

I think they're happy with Escobar. He cost a AAA pen arm and provided exactly what Eppler wanted, a lot of OBP at the top of the lineup with a lot of contact and not a lot of K's. I think they'd be open to trading him if a team came calling with a sweet offer as they now have Marte or Cowart in the wings, but don't think they are really shopping him much at all. His defense sucks, but he's got Simmons to his left and that still gives us good defense on the whole.

[Blarg]

I really don't think Morin has the trade value you think he does, Dave. 

[Dave Saltzer]

6 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Dave, if they don't see him at 2nd, I can see them trying for an upgrade and trading Escobar and his option. Is his arm or his range the issue?

 

They are comfortable for his option at 3B as far as I can tell. They aren't going to get a much better combination at that position for his cost (if only we had offered Beltre the 6th year guaranteed that he wanted to sign with us--imagine how much better we would have been!). As for his defense at 2B, they'd point to his lack of instincts, footwork, and glove work to safely man 2B. 

[totdprods]

20 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I really don't think Morin has the trade value you think he does, Dave. 

I think that's probably the bigger hang-up on that deal. I don't think Morin and Alcantara get it done. They'd actually probably prefer we take Ellsbury over Gardner. Only plus to that is we'd maybe get an additional, or better prospect than Refsnyder.

[Dave Saltzer]

16 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I really don't think Morin has the trade value you think he does, Dave. 

I don't think Gardner and his contract have the value that the Yankees are paying either. But, this is a case where they could improve through subtraction (both in salary and opening up a position), and probably might be willing to make a move similar to what I'm proposing so that they can fulfill other goals. They can easily replicate what they are getting from Gardner and Refsnyder internally (sadly they'd be a big improvement for us), shed payroll, stay under the luxury tax, and fill their other needs. We may have to fine-tune the details a bit, but, it's an idea of an interesting target for us to consider.

[Ohtaniland]

58 minutes ago, totdprods said:

We can't be too picky in LF though. We aren't really going to get the ideal LF - there isn't one available in FA, and there isn't anyone we could afford on the trade market. 

Angels LF in '16: .204/.271/.313/.584
Angels LF in '15: .216/.275/.317/.592
Angels LF in '14: .234/.293/.336/.629
Angels LF in '13: .275/.330/.392/.722 - And Mike Trout was 45 of these. 

For 600 games, we have been godawful in LF, and Brett Gardner, with all of his warts, is still a massive, massive upgrade over what has been out there. He strikes out a lot, doesn't have much pop, and costs a lot - but he won't cost a lot to trade for, gets on base at an above-average clip, can steal 15-20 bags and play at least decent defense, and has consistently been a 3-4 WAR player with a .700+ OPS, and is only under contract for two more years. By then, we should have payroll or a prospect ready to take over. 

If all it cost was Morin, Alcantara, and even a low-level lotto ticket prospect and absorbing some salary, I'd do it, even more so if we got Refsnyder or another prospect back.
 

I think the Yankees would put a bow on 33 year old Gardner and send him to Anaheim for practically nothing if the Angels take on his full contract. Refsnyder probably won't be traded because of his age and versatility at RF 3B 2B.