Twins acquire Santiago

[eaterfan]

2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Such is the state of the org that we have to take a risk like this. If Meyer pans out its a huge win to have received a pitcher like that for virtually nothing. We don't really have any other way of adding potentially high-impact prospects unless we deal Trout, Simmons, Calhoun, maybe Shoe, or getting a Top 5 pick. And all those come with risk too. 

Santiago for Nolasco is basically a wash. We basically bought Meyer for a couple mil and accepted that our #4 might suck a bit more than the one we sent them. We weren't really planning on competing next year, remember? 

To me this shows they're intending on looking long term, which is something we all weren't real sure of going into this weekend.  

I think this shows they are looking more short term. This guy will be "ready" in 2017. I think we could have gotten guys with equally high ceilings who were a little further away who were maybe a little less risky.

[Ray McKigney]

Just now, Inside Pitch said:

Its possible Eppler is thinking outside the box and we are all reacting emotionally to the trade - but you have to admit, the Blanton debacle is a specter that even the saber inclined fans might struggle to let go of...   Different GM and different team I know -- but a painful memory.

But I do agree they are seemingly looking long term...

Who is this Blanton of whom you speak?

[totdprods]

Miller and Meyer aren't perfect comps, but close as I could come up with. He's young enough he shouldn't be written off. 

And there's always chance he winds up being effective in the pen, like Miller, and we see what he's worth now. 

If Santiago wasn't getting prospects offered back that were impact bats or top-of-the-rotation arms, then we wouldn't have been adding much to the system except for quantity. We needed someone with some upside who can step in this year.

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

Meyer is a RHP. His command issues are likely due to him being so tall(6'9). Common for big dudes like that to struggle with throwing strikes

Yeah -- Im doing four things at once..    First I miss Tot's post and I type lefties when I mean SPs...  Possibly cause i was thinking of RJ as another tall dude that didnt make his mark until he was older...   I think Im going to go walk the dog or something...  

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I think this shows they are looking more short term. This guy will be "ready" in 2017. I think we could have gotten guys with equally high ceilings who were a little further away who were maybe a little less risky.

You may be right -- just different levels of risky.... 

[tomsred]

Here's another way to look at it.  We got Meyer (a gamble, but with quality upside if he succeeds), Castillo (a good young piece, probably for 2018), and Nolasco to fill in for 2 months this year, and in 2017.  We also got offsetting cash in the Nolasco transaction.

We gave up Busenitz (hard thrower, but not a top prospect by any means) Smith (a free agent with little use to us this year), and Santiago (erratic and a bullpen destroyer).  If Smith rebounds with the Cubs sign him next year as a free agent.  

Like I said earlier, not much to see here, moving on to bigger issues like LF.

[VariousCrap]

I was talking with a guy who does a Twins podcast and he was thrilled with this deal from the Twins perspective.  He was very happy to see Nolasco go and he said the talk for the last year or two in Minnesota has been that Meyer projected to be a bullpen guy at best.

 

[totdprods]

17 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I think this shows they are looking more short term. This guy will be "ready" in 2017. I think we could have gotten guys with equally high ceilings who were a little further away who were maybe a little less risky.

Well, I mean it's a little both long term and short term, which I've been saying has been Eppler's MO. They're putting together a team that has a semblance of veteran productivity that could compete, but doesn't cost a fortune in years or dollars. 

The Blanton comp is dead on and definitely gives us shivers, but so far Eppler has done a much better job finding guys. Lincecum is the only one that's really bombed when you think of it. Nava/Gentry as well, but their issues were far more related to their health. They were cut now because it wasn't really worth keeping them.

[beatlesrule]

4 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

I was talking with a guy who does a Twins podcast and he was thrilled with this deal from the Twins perspective.  He was very happy to see Nolasco go and he said the talk for the last year or two in Minnesota has been that Meyer projected to be a bullpen guy at best.

 

Of course he was.  It's a huge win for the Twins.

[mulwin444]

Based on BP pieces that Eppler has acquired this year (Guerra, Ramirez, Achter) he seems to be able to find decent guys at low prices.  I think he envisions Meyers as a SP acquisition which is betting on a lot.  

[totdprods]

Eppler has had a really solid track record. He doesn't seem to have really missed on any of the FAs last year that could have been in our range. He hasn't let anyone go that has particularly stung. Even his near acquisition in Saunders adds to his rep of finding good talent. I'll wait and see on this one.

He also managed to address a really dire offseason need really early. We needed to add at least 4 SPs of varying degree this offseason, in a market that's going to be very thin and expensive.

[Tank]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

He turns 27 in January, and he hasn't pitched in 2 months due to a bum shoulder.  Sure, he's a former 1st round pick, a top 100 prospect, etc.--but something (a combo of command issues, injuries, general ineffectiveness, etc.) has kept him from living up to his hype.  I'd say the window on capitalizing on that is closing pretty soon.

ah, that's the reassurance i think we were all looking for. LOL.

[Troll Daddy]

The kid can pitch

[ettin]

I am fine with this trade. I may regret saying it but Meyer is the primary focus here. The Angels needed to bring in a higher quality position or pitching prospect and they have done that while maintaining pitching depth with Nolasco.

Barring a complete meltdown by Meyer I think this trade is a win for the Angels.

[AngelsLakersFan]

16 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

I was talking with a guy who does a Twins podcast and he was thrilled with this deal from the Twins perspective.  He was very happy to see Nolasco go and he said the talk for the last year or two in Minnesota has been that Meyer projected to be a bullpen guy at best.

 

The Twins know he's a BP arm, we are praying he's not.

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 minutes ago, ettin said:

I am fine with this trade. I may regret saying it but Meyer is the primary focus here. The Angels needed to bring in a higher quality position or pitching prospect and they have done that while maintaining pitching depth with Nolasco.

Barring a complete meltdown by Meyer I think this trade is a win for the Angels.

I have a sneaking feeling that the Twins will end up flipping Santiago at some point for more than they gave up.

[Tank]

50 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

It's not really a shocker that FG's opinion is what it is -- from a sabermetric POV the deal isn't as awful as someone looking at the raw numbers.  Nolasco's 1.5 fWAR this year is better than Santiago's 0.5 -- I doubt anyone would have believed that based on raw ERA numbers.   Anyway, based on what Eppler is reportedly to saying it's pretty clear they are banking on some of math to even out..   When you consider Nolasco had a BABIP of .315 and Santiago's was under .260 you can see the luck argument and if you take into consideration that the Angels have the best Defensive efficiency in MLB while the Twins are in the lower half -- you can see why the Angels are thinking a better defense will lead to better results.

It wouldnt be so hard to swallow if not for the Blanton disaster...   This feels like a familiar road.

 

one worry is that the team's PR machine will do an incredible job of overselling us on decent this trade is, raising our expectations to something unreasonable because he won't pan out. they've had a "let's polish the turd" mentality for too long. i hope your assessment is worth being encouraged about.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

The Twins know he's a BP arm, we are praying he's not.

Uh, even if he winds up just being a really good reliever, that'd be okay given their insane trade value these days.

[notherhalo]

Adding Nolasco will help us get a better pick, so it's kind of like getting another player in the deal

[eaterfan]

16 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Well, I mean it's a little both long term and short term, which I've been saying has been Eppler's MO. They're putting together a team that has a semblance of veteran productivity that could compete, but doesn't cost a fortune in years or dollars. 

The Blanton comp is dead on and definitely gives us shivers, but so far Eppler has done a much better job finding guys. Lincecum is the only one that's really bombed when you think of it. Nava/Gentry as well, but their issues were far more related to their health. They were cut now because it wasn't really worth keeping them.

Have you ever heard the saying "If you chase two rabbits you lose both"? This feels a lot like this. If you try to rebuild and contend you really do neither.

[ettin]

Just now, AngelsLakersFan said:

I have a sneaking feeling that the Twins will end up flipping Santiago at some point for more than they gave up.

Perhaps as they will have the September waiver period to do so. I really think Eppler's goal was very specific and that was to find a trade partner that would give up a starter with a very specific control period and contract length that would send them a good prospect as well. The Twins clearly ended up being the right fit for his goal.

So yes I agree ALF that they may flip him for another prospect or two that they desire and that is fine because the Angels had a tactical goal with this trade and they executed on the one they found to be best. I see the logic in what they did. Everything relies now on Meyer being something as long as he is not a complete failure.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

Uh, even if he winds up just being a really good reliever, that'd be okay given their insane trade value these days.

Just because he'll probably end up a reliever doesn't mean that he's going to turn in to Andrew Miller. Also what we ultimately trade him for five years from now is not much of a concern for the current state of the organization.

[DMVol]

22 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

I was talking with a guy who does a Twins podcast and he was thrilled with this deal from the Twins perspective.  He was very happy to see Nolasco go and he said the talk for the last year or two in Minnesota has been that Meyer projected to be a bullpen guy at best.

That's pretty much what it looks like to me....we'll see.....

[Jobu]

2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Uh, even if he winds up just being a really good reliever, that'd be okay given their insane trade value these days.

Which isn't even anywhere close to a sure thing. Right now he's a guy with 6 big league innings, a 14 ERA, and a bum shoulder. 

[tomsred]

3 minutes ago, notherhalo said:

Adding Nolasco will help us get a better pick, so it's kind of like getting another player in the deal

And if we had signed a free agent in the offseason without having a protected pick we would wipe that out.  Long term we need quality pitchers, short term we may need quantity.  Nolasco won;t be here in 2018, he'll be lucky to last through 2017.