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Heyman on Pujols signing

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On 7/2/2016 at 11:05 PM, tdawg87 said:

After all the shit we've given him it will probably turn out that his decline was set on by him donating his blood to dying children and giving part of his foot to save a puppy's life.

I think there's a better chance that he missed second breakfast and had to eat some of his foot to stave off hypoglycemia.  

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Some basic truths about Albert:

1. He's been pretty good of late.

2. He's been mediocre overall this year and for much of his Angels career.

3. His first year as an Angel was his best, but disappointing at the time, and it has gotten worse since.

4. His contract is one of the worst in baseball history, due to his historically quick decline.

Does anyone dispute any of those points? Good, thread completed.

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On ‎7‎/‎1‎/‎2016 at 3:39 PM, Stradling said:

Ok, so here is how you guys think it played out.  A 19 year old comes over from the Dominican Republic to play baseball.  He comes to KC the baseball Mecca that it is.  He enrolls in high school not as a senior but as a sophomore, because what teenager doesn't want to redo three years of high school.  So as a 22 year old senior isn't good enough to be drafted out of high school.  He then goes to one year of college and is drafted 402nd in the draft, so he is now 23 and still isn't highly thought of.  Then he blossoms.  If he just came out of nowhere and performed like this and never did the three years of high school here, I would totally see your point.  To me though it just doesn't pass the smell test.  

Corry would have done that just so he could date 15 year olds without getting busted.

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On 6/30/2016 at 5:16 PM, Warren said:

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/yankee-intrigue-trade-gap-arod/

Story heard about the Albert Pujols deal: The Angels were at $160 million, when Arte Moreno went to $200 million on a phone call with agent Dan Lozano. And when Lozano told him he couldn’t have an answer for him at this time because he hadn’t spoken to Pujols, Moreno abruptly bumped it to $240 million. Then Lozano gave him his answer: Yes

Guess that's one way to get someone to sign.

Hey Arte, you should have left the negotiations to Dipoto.

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4 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

He finishes July with 31 rbis.   How does that compare to the franchise record for rbis in July and in any month?

Three short of the record. Jim Edmonds (July 95) and Don Baylor (July 79) both had months with 34.

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5 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

Three short of the record. Jim Edmonds (July 95) and Don Baylor (July 79) both had months with 34.

Also 4 short of tying his all time best month, that was in 2009. (Don't know which month)

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There are bright sides to this season.   Trout, Calhoun, Escobar's BA, Pujols' run production, Simmons' defense and July hitting, the emergence of Bedrosian/Guerra/Ramirez in the pen,  Bandy behind the plate, and Skaggs' return featuring two very good starts

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

There are bright sides to this season.   Trout, Calhoun, Escobar's BA, Pujols' run production, Simmons' defense and July hitting, the emergence of Bedrosian/Guerra/Ramirez in the pen,  Bandy behind the plate, and Skaggs' return featuring two very good starts

 

 

That's right on AO - despite what some folks think, we are learning about who is in for the future with the youngsters.  I think more of that will emerge in the next two months.  There's more of a core here than many think.

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I will try to also be hopeful on Nolasco and Meyer.    It is true that Meyer is a potential high ceiling guy, if staying healthy.    Nolasco isn't a big HR pitcher any more, has good control, and it will be interesting to see how much lower the hits allowed will be with Simmons at SS and Trout/Calhoun in the OF.   I'm not as down on the trade as I was 3-4 hours ago, but still somewhat skeptical.

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3 hours ago, tomsred said:

That's right on AO - despite what some folks think, we are learning about who is in for the future with the youngsters.  I think more of that will emerge in the next two months.  There's more of a core here than many think.

I'm liking this Trout kid. I think he's a keeper.

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4 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

There are bright sides to this season.   Trout, Calhoun, Escobar's BA, Pujols' run production, Simmons' defense and July hitting, the emergence of Bedrosian/Guerra/Ramirez in the pen,  Bandy behind the plate, and Skaggs' return featuring two very good starts

 

 

The real bright spots come in the things that were hard to see coming - Skaggs giving reason to believe he'll be an above average starter, Bedrosian improving so quickly, Guerra and Ramirez coming out of nowhere. You're overstating the Pujols thing a bit though. He's still on track to be a sub 2 WAR player. As a side note, he could become just the sixth player to have 120 RBIs in a season where they put up 2 WAR or less.

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That may be true Oz, but the guy is producing as a run producer.  He is batting .297 with runners on base and batting .314 with runners in scoring position.  He has 20 home runs, on pace for around 30.  His average is climbing and could easily be over .270 by seasons end.  His OBP is 70 points higher than his batting average.  He had a horrible April, batting .176 that month, but he has hit .278, .281, and .297 each month since.  He isn't getting the doubles he usually gets, only has 11 on the year.  He usually gets some value on the defensive side and this year he hasn't played much first base.  His contract is huge, but his actual play isn't really hurting us.  He is absolutely helped by all the guys on base ahead of him. 

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3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

That may be true Oz, but the guy is producing as a run producer.  He is batting .297 with runners on base and batting .314 with runners in scoring position.  He has 20 home runs, on pace for around 30.  His average is climbing and could easily be over .270 by seasons end.  His OBP is 70 points higher than his batting average.  He had a horrible April, batting .176 that month, but he has hit .278, .281, and .297 each month since.  He isn't getting the doubles he usually gets, only has 11 on the year.  He usually gets some value on the defensive side and this year he hasn't played much first base.  His contract is huge, but his actual play isn't really hurting us.  He is absolutely helped by all the guys on base ahead of him. 

His "run production" really isn't that great though. His wRC+ is 111, which is good but it isn't great. He's been worth 4.6 runs more than the average hitter. When you factor in his positional, defensive and baserunning shortcomings he has actually been a below average player this season (to the tune of -0.6 wins). So he isn't actually "hurting" the team, I guess. But his value is being dramatically overstated by many people here and much of it is based on stats which mean practically nothing, such as RBI.

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42 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

The real bright spots come in the things that were hard to see coming - Skaggs giving reason to believe he'll be an above average starter, Bedrosian improving so quickly, Guerra and Ramirez coming out of nowhere. You're overstating the Pujols thing a bit though. He's still on track to be a sub 2 WAR player. As a side note, he could become just the sixth player to have 120 RBIs in a season where they put up 2 WAR or less.

But he fills an important role right now, we are very light on run producers.  Billy has done a good job of improving the OBP, and I really like the composition of the team as to striking out less (we lead the majors in fewest team strikeouts).  Remember Don Baylor preaching about striking out less, we finally got there.  At some point Albert will truly become obsolete hopefully because we have found and put in place better all around players who are younger, and can do the Pujols role.  It's the same question as always, Pujols isn't ideal anymore, but we have hardly anyone who can fill that role especially with Cron out.  For his age and level of injury, I'm really impressed with what Albert has done this year, plus he's a leader and the there players truly respect him, he's really very professional.

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1 minute ago, tomsred said:

But he fills an important role right now, we are very light on run producers.  Billy has done a good job of improving the OBP, and I really like the composition of the team as to striking out less (we lead the majors in fewest team strikeouts).  Remember Don Baylor preaching about striking out less, we finally got there.  At some point Albert will truly become obsolete hopefully because we have found and put in place better all around players who are younger, and can do the Pujols role.  It's the same question as always, Pujols isn't ideal anymore, but we have hardly anyone who can fill that role especially with Cron out.  For his age and level of injury, I'm really impressed with what Albert has done this year, plus he's a leader and the there players truly respect him, he's really very professional.

I don't really get what you mean by "run producers" though. The only stat that suggests he's producing runs at any great level is RBI. He's been our seventh most valuable position player this year, despite playing much more than some of the guys above him (like Cron and Simmons, who have been injured). But even purely on hitting, a 111 wRC+ and 4.6 RAA really isn't that good. As both of those stats suggest, it is not that far above the average hitter - which of course doesn't factor in his other shortcomings.

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Just now, Oz27 said:

I don't really get what you mean by "run producers" though. The only stat that suggests he's producing runs at any great level is RBI. He's been our seventh most valuable position player this year, despite playing much more than some of the guys above him (like Cron and Simmons, who have been injured). But even purely on hitting, a 111 wRC+ and 4.6 RAA really isn't that good. As both of those stats suggest, it is not that far above the average hitter - which of course doesn't factor in his other shortcomings.

One question OZ27, who are you going to hit behind Trout?  Nobody else is ready for that role yet.  I said he isn't ideal, but that is who we have.  After the 2nd through 4th spot in the order who are you going to put in there who has true power, and can get you the RBI's you need.  Albert is hitting far above .300 with RISP, he hits poorly with no one on.  His job is kind of simple really, hit well when the three guys ahead of him are on base.  I really don't give a rat about his overall numbers, his overall batting average, or his WAR numbers.  He's a role player now, he strikes out a lot less than Trout, he's adjusted to staying out of double plays (I think he hit into only 2 in July).  He also did a terrific job lately of shortening up and getting the needed single when necessary.  I don't really care how much money he makes, that's  water over the bridge at this point.  That only is an issue when he signed the contract.  That's backward thinking to worry over that now, there is nothing we can do to change that.  

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1 minute ago, tomsred said:

One question OZ27, who are you going to hit behind Trout?  Nobody else is ready for that role yet.  I said he isn't ideal, but that is who we have.  After the 2nd through 4th spot in the order who are you going to put in there who has true power, and can get you the RBI's you need.  Albert is hitting far above .300 with RISP, he hits poorly with no one on.  His job is kind of simple really, hit well when the three guys ahead of him are on base.  I really don't give a rat about his overall numbers, his overall batting average, or his WAR numbers.  He's a role player now, he strikes out a lot less than Trout, he's adjusted to staying out of double plays (I think he hit into only 2 in July).  He also did a terrific job lately of shortening up and getting the needed single when necessary.  I don't really care how much money he makes, that's  water over the bridge at this point.  That only is an issue when he signed the contract.  That's backward thinking to worry over that now, there is nothing we can do to change that.  

What qualifies you to hit behind Trout and what makes you "ready" for it? Research on this suggests the #2 spot in the lineup is your most important spot, so that should go to Trout. The leadoff guy should be a high OBP hitter, so on this team that would be Escobar. Research suggests the #3 hitter isn't actually as important as people think and #4 is highly important. So I'd want my best hitter hitting second and my second best non-leadoff hitter fourth. As such, I'd be building a lineup something like Escobar-Trout-Pujols-Calhoun-Cron and then the rest. I will make the point though that research suggests lineup optimization is nowhere near as important as people think. Albert's job really isn't that different to any other player ... perform well offensively. He is performing above average, but not by that much. He's likely not our second best hitter. My point isn't that we would cut him or that this team would be better if he were not around. I'm just saying his value this season has been overstated pretty dramatically by certain people here.

" I really don't give a rat about his overall numbers, his overall batting average, or his WAR numbers. "

As for this bit, that's rather irrational. If you're not judging him on how he has performed, how are you judging him?

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Everything you have said about what research says should be done with the order of your hitters is done without consideration to the personalities, strengths and weaknesses of your individual players.  Few teams have had ideal or prototypical hitters in the 1-4 slots.  We certainly do not.  There are some things that Escobar, Calhoun, Trout and Pujols do well, and some things they have trouble with.  Trout is an anomaly, he could probably fill any of the four positions, and play well above average because he has the all the tools to do so.  You have to balance the tangible, and intangible qualities of each of the players.  When you put a team on the field you don't do it by determining the batting order first.  You consider their defensive abilities, their personalities, their offensive capabilities, and their base running (speed) instincts.  Example:  Escobar isn't the best of leadoff hitters, he is kind of slow and dumb for that role, but he makes contact and hits very well.  He's not Rod Carew or Chone Figgins.  Example:  Calhoun is not a high enough average hitter to hit second, but he doesn't have Pujols' ability to hit as many home runs, or intimidate opposing pitchers (plus he's vulnerable to really good lefties).  Example:  Pujols is too slow to hit higher than third in the order, or at the end of the order when you turn it over.  Playing them in the order you suggest might get you more runs, or it might get you far less runs.  What I am trying to do is to persuade you that we don't have the proper talent, and the right skill sets to follow the prototypical model you suggest.  Recently your 5-8 hitters have been Cron, Simmons, Giavotella/Petit, and Perez/Bandy; do you really want to see any of those guys hitting 4th, I don't right now.  

As far as the bit of judging him purely by statistical data he isn't a top 100 player anymore.  However, you have invested in him under a ten year contract, and you should want to place him in a position of comfort where he can contribute to the best of his remaining ability.  You can move many younger players around a lot, but older players have been more ingrained into their best role during their peak years, and are more inflexible in still producing properly in their later years if not given a chance to do what they excelled at..  Example:  This year aside do you think Boston would really move Ortiz to 6-8 in the order even though his production was falling off?  I don't, they would have retired or otherwise disposed of him first..  

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29 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Albert's WPA is 2.37 this year.  17th in all of baseball.  On pace to be his highest total as a halo.  He's certainly been more productive than his normalized stats would indicate.  

I put pretty little stock in WPA but it's interesting that it's so high. There have only been 26 hitters ever to end up with a WPA above 3 and a WAR at 1.5 or under. That's probably where Pujols ends up.

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