Why the Angels need Heyward more than any other team

[disarcina]

I would take Cespedes over Heyward and might even be willing to pay close to top dollar -- but again, LF is not a position where I am going to have one of my most expensive (payroll) players........CF -- guy like Trout?? ABSOLUTELY. Starting Pitching? YES.  SS -- I'm OK there, too.

 

LF or RF -- probably not unless the RF is a guy who hits 45 HRs 100 RBIs a season.

[AngelsFanSince86]

I would take Cespedes over Heyward and might even be willing to pay close to top dollar -- but again, LF is not a position where I am going to have one of my most expensive (payroll) players........CF -- guy like Trout?? ABSOLUTELY. Starting Pitching? YES.  SS -- I'm OK there, too.

 

LF or RF -- probably not unless the RF is a guy who hits 45 HRs 100 RBIs a season.

 

To each his own, but I really don't get the whole spend big on SP thing.  They rarely ever live up to their contract and are the most injury prone players.  SP contracts are clearly getting ridiculous especially when you consider they only effect 1 of every 5 games and great SP has rarely been a necessity for a WS ring. Also, solid defense makes all of your pitchers better.  

 

I'm not saying the Angels couldn't use a front of the rotation guy, but paying for it via FA rarely works out.  It sounds good now, but we'll all be whining about it in 3 years when they rapidly decline/get injured/have a few off years and the Angels are paying him 25-30 million a year.

[AngelsLakersFan]

 seems too rich for an OF position to me........

 

Heywood batted .268 last year -- about 13 HRs , 70 RBI and 19 SBs -- stellar defense.

 

I know this may sound a bit like Buzzie Bavasi's never -lived down comment that he could get two 8-7 pitchers instead of re-signing a Halos pitcher named NOLAN RYAN back in the day -- however --

 

you can probably get a LF to hit .275, with 15 HR and 75 RBI, 15 SBs for about about $7 to $8 million for one year -- and if you had to spend $24 million for 3 years -- that's still a lot less than the numbers being tossed around above in these posts and other media.

 

if you factor it out you need to ask how much is maybe 10 points in the BA, 5 more HRs, maybe 10 more RBI's and 10 more SBs worth??

 (and to be fair, also stellar D in LF).

 

Is slight possible increase in stats for the LF position worth $36 million per year minus $9 million = $27 million a year?

 

I actually referenced Bavasi's foolish comments in another thread because I see parallels to the Heyward situation. The bottom line is that replacing the production that Heyward brings by bringing in 2 players will end up being more expensive, because young, top level free agents are breaking the mold for free agent contracts based around older, ultimately declining players.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

This might be a horrible comp, but here goes. If heyward was nore of a curtis granderson type, if be a lot more about the idea. I know heyward us younger, better glove. And grabderson has more pop in his bat. But if heyward (and if he is capable, sell me the idea) was a guy who could lead off, still give us high teens HR power, and steal a bunch of bases, id say stop at nothing to get him.

Can heyward be that guy? And im asking seriously, not rhetorically. Because if he can, i really really want him. If not, i still lean towards upton

[Mark68]

This might be a horrible comp, but here goes. If heyward was nore of a curtis granderson type, if be a lot more about the idea. I know heyward us younger, better glove. And grabderson has more pop in his bat. But if heyward (and if he is capable, sell me the idea) was a guy who could lead off, still give us high teens HR power, and steal a bunch of bases, id say stop at nothing to get him.

Can heyward be that guy? And im asking seriously, not rhetorically. Because if he can, i really really want him. If not, i still lean towards upton

His 162 game average (per BBRef): 31 2B, 4 3B, 19 HR, .268/.353/.431, 17/22 SB/CS.

[tdawg87]

I would take Cespedes over Heyward and might even be willing to pay close to top dollar -- but again, LF is not a position where I am going to have one of my most expensive (payroll) players........CF -- guy like Trout?? ABSOLUTELY. Starting Pitching? YES.  SS -- I'm OK there, too.

 

LF or RF -- probably not unless the RF is a guy who hits 45 HRs 100 RBIs a season.

 

I have no problem with your opinion but Cespedes is 5 years older than Heyward and isn't a whole lot better with the bat (check his stats, he really isn't. Especially if you consider his contract year an anomaly). He's also far worse on defense.

 

Everyone has this obsession with hitting homeruns and I just don't get it. They hit plenty of homers last season. They didn't score runs because they had no one on base.

[Second Base]

I have no problem with your opinion but Cespedes is 5 years older than Heyward and isn't a whole lot better with the bat (check his stats, he really isn't. Especially if you consider his contract year an anomaly). He's also far worse on defense.

 

Everyone has this obsession with hitting homeruns and I just don't get it. They hit plenty of homers last season. They didn't score runs because they had no one on base.

I think there's a difference between hitting HR's and being a run producer. You're absolutely right, the Angels ability to reach base last year was atrocious. But it was also apparent that we had nothing behind Mike Trout. Like if he didn't drive in a player, it was a guarantee it wasn't going to happen at all. That needs to be fixed. There are more ways to drive in a run than hitting the long ball.

So if we want a highly functioning offense next year, we need both a player that gets on base at a higher clip in front of Trout (Calhoun needs to reach base too but that's another thing entirely) and someone to hit behind Trout to knock them in.

Heyward is my favorite player of the bunch. He's left handed, he's young, his upside is incredible, he plays amazing defense and can get on base. But the problem here is that if the Angels land Heyward, they'd need to find a run producer elsewhere, and that type of player just isn't available. So that run producer likely has to come from LF and the OBP hitter from 2B and 3B.

Ultimately, I don't care how it's done. Whether trades, free agency or internal, but those two things have to happen just to have an offense befitting of a competitor.

[ten ocho recon scout]

His 162 game average (per BBRef): 31 2B, 4 3B, 19 HR, .268/.353/.431, 17/22 SB/CS.

thats very solid. Very, very solid.

Not a huge deal, but if he was "faster", as in like a 40 steal guy id be all over it. I know its not that big of a deal, but a guy like that to lead off (speed, obp, power to the gaps) would be exactly what we need

[tdawg87]

I think there's a difference between hitting HR's and being a run producer. You're absolutely right, the Angels ability to reach base last year was atrocious. But it was also apparent that we had nothing behind Mike Trout. Like if he didn't drive in a player, it was a guarantee it wasn't going to happen at all. That needs to be fixed. There are more ways to drive in a run than hitting the long ball.

So if we want a highly functioning offense next year, we need both a player that gets on base at a higher clip in front of Trout (Calhoun needs to reach base too but that's another thing entirely) and someone to hit behind Trout to knock them in.

Heyward is my favorite player of the bunch. He's left handed, he's young, his upside is incredible, he plays amazing defense and can get on base. But the problem here is that if the Angels land Heyward, they'd need to find a run producer elsewhere, and that type of player just isn't available. So that run producer likely has to come from LF and the OBP hitter from 2B and 3B.

Ultimately, I don't care how it's done. Whether trades, free agency or internal, but those two things have to happen just to have an offense befitting of a competitor.

 

I think Pujols can still bring runs in. He hit 40 homeruns last season. Yes, he struggled with men in scoring position but I don't take that stat too seriously. I'm guessing if there were more guys on base he would have had well over 100 RBI's. Same with Trout. That's probably 2-3 more wins right there.

 

And then if Calhoun hits 5th, you've got a pretty well-balanced lineup. Calhoun has 20+ HR power and I think could easily eclipse 100 RBI's if given the chance. Hell he had 83 this past year despite hitting at the top of the order. And while I still don't consider RISP do be a real stat, Calhoun HAS done well in those situations in his career. To me, he is more of a run producer than a table setter. Then you have Cron who also projects to be a run producer. Freese, if re-signed, does well enough in the 6th hole with decent power numbers.

 

I just think the team has plenty of guys to drive in runs. They need runs to drive in is the problem.

 

Adding Upton would be great, but he's probably just going to be another guy who hits 25+ HR and ends up with about 80 RBI's because no one was on base for him to drive in.

[Second Base]

I think Pujols can still bring runs in. He hit 40 homeruns last season. Yes, he struggled with men in scoring position but I don't take that stat too seriously. I'm guessing if there were more guys on base he would have had well over 100 RBI's. Same with Trout. That's probably 2-3 more wins right there.

 

And then if Calhoun hits 5th, you've got a pretty well-balanced lineup. Calhoun has 20+ HR power and I think could easily eclipse 100 RBI's if given the chance. Hell he had 83 this past year despite hitting at the top of the order. And while I still don't consider RISP do be a real stat, Calhoun HAS done well in those situations in his career. To me, he is more of a run producer than a table setter. Then you have Cron who also projects to be a run producer. Freese, if re-signed, does well enough in the 6th hole with decent power numbers.

 

I just think the team has plenty of guys to drive in runs. They need runs to drive in is the problem.

 

Adding Upton would be great, but he's probably just going to be another guy who hits 25+ HR and ends up with about 80 RBI's because no one was on base for him to drive in.

Therein lies our difference in approaching this situation. I believe a hitters performance with RISP in central to determining whether he is a run producer or not.

I'm curious to know, what do you believe makes a run producer if not their ability to drive in runs?

[tdawg87]

They have hitters in front of them that get on base.

[Second Base]

They have hitters in front of them that get on base.

So if a batter comes up with RISP mire frequently, he'll inherently be a "run producer". It makes sense, though I'd debate that some hitters are better suited for the role of being up with RISP than others. Pujols' struggles in these situations as an Angel is difficult to ignore. I'm not sure I can envision his performance increasing in his age 36 season.

[tdawg87]

Well obviously there's an element of talent involved. But if you hit for power, and have a reasonable batting average, you will drive in runs if there are guys getting on base ahead of you. If a guy hits .250 with 30+ homeruns, realistically he should have over 100 RBI's. Unless his team is balls. The he'll end up with 90 or so.

[Second Base]

Ok so if the Angels did indeed sign Heyward, would you be on board with acquiring a 2B to set the table while moving Calhoun down the order? Because I think something along the lines of Walker, Heyward, Trout, Pujols, Calhoun and Cron could work.

But it's doubtful Scioscia would do that. There are a few things I feel are certain Scioscia will do, all of which I don't like.

1. Jered Weaver will be in the rotation.

2. Mike Trout will not steal.

3. Pujols will bat 3-4 no matter what.

4. Scioscia will always go to the bullpen 2 batters too late.

5. When Scioscia goes to the bullpen, it's going to be Fernando Salas.

I'd put Calhoun leading off somewhere in there too. He just seems reluctant or slow to change.

[totdprods]

I love Calhoun as a 5 or 6 hitter. Heyward feels like the ideal #2.

No idea who will lead off. But if Scioscia is manager, I guarantee we will see Simmons hit first or second at some point.

[Second Base]

I love Calhoun as a 5 or 6 hitter. Heyward feels like the ideal #2.

No idea who will lead off. But if Scioscia is manager, I guarantee we will see Simmons hit first or second at some point.

Well his .309 OBP certainly isn't helping us at lead off.

[totdprods]

Well his .309 OBP certainly isn't helping us at lead off.

In 286 games started leading off, Erick Aybar's OBP is .308. If Scioscia is manager, Simmons will hit lead off at some point.

Edited December 5, 2015 by totdprods

[Second Base]

Oh F____! Giavotella would be a better lead off hitter than Simmons.

[totdprods]

Oh I'm not suggesting it. Just expecting it.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I think Pujols can still bring runs in. He hit 40 homeruns last season. Yes, he struggled with men in scoring position but I don't take that stat too seriously. I'm guessing if there were more guys on base he would have had well over 100 RBI's. Same with Trout. That's probably 2-3 more wins right there.

And then if Calhoun hits 5th, you've got a pretty well-balanced lineup. Calhoun has 20+ HR power and I think could easily eclipse 100 RBI's if given the chance. Hell he had 83 this past year despite hitting at the top of the order. And while I still don't consider RISP do be a real stat, Calhoun HAS done well in those situations in his career. To me, he is more of a run producer than a table setter. Then you have Cron who also projects to be a run producer. Freese, if re-signed, does well enough in the 6th hole with decent power numbers.

I just think the team has plenty of guys to drive in runs. They need runs to drive in is the problem.

Adding Upton would be great, but he's probably just going to be another guy who hits 25+ HR and ends up with about 80 RBI's because no one was on base for him to drive in.

As for your last part. Upton gets on base at an above average clip too. Heyward may do it a bit better, but i dont think he blows him away in that regard. And i think both can be slotted in the same spot in the lineup. Personally, i think getting upton and batting him 3rd and moving trout back to 2cd makes the team better (offensively) than heyward 2cd and trout 3rd. Thats just my opinion though

[Second Base]

I drastically prefer Upton over Heyward, because of what I think the cost will be, and the fit, but I certainly won't complain in any case.  However, if we do land Upton and a 2B, I'd go Calhoun, 2B, Trout, Upton, Pujols, Cron.  Hoping that 2B is Neil Walker. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

With the money that is being talked about now.  Which is 10/$300 million + . 

 

NO.

 

I'd rather go with a shorter term player that is in the 5 year range, and save that money for someone that is worth it in 5 years and plays a certain position for us.  

 

I would not go over $300m on him, but I would definitely go over $200m for him, and I think someone will. I'm also pretty sure that Hayward is going to get at least $35m per season even near the front of the deal, with a flat pay structure and an opt out clause after 4 or 5 years.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I drastically prefer Upton over Heyward, because of what I think the cost will be, and the fit, but I certainly won't complain in any case. However, if we do land Upton and a 2B, I'd go Calhoun, 2B, Trout, Upton, Pujols, Cron. Hoping that 2B is Neil Walker.

thats where im at. I prefer upton, but will be elated to get heyward.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Well obviously there's an element of talent involved. But if you hit for power, and have a reasonable batting average, you will drive in runs if there are guys getting on base ahead of you. If a guy hits .250 with 30+ homeruns, realistically he should have over 100 RBI's. Unless his team is balls. The he'll end up with 90 or so.

 

It's funny you say this. A long time ago I put together a run and rbi estimator. The idea was the show how team offense is the key to both stats, rather than ability. With runs scored the base that a player put themselves on was such a good predictor of total runs scored that there was almost no need to consider base running and lineup. With RBI's though, a players hitting did not get me close to the totals at all, and in the end the only way to really accurately project player RBI's was the include a component for balls in play and team offense. Essentially the biggest thing in creating RBI's was being part of a good offense and hitting the ball a lot.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I drastically prefer Upton over Heyward, because of what I think the cost will be, and the fit, but I certainly won't complain in any case.  However, if we do land Upton and a 2B, I'd go Calhoun, 2B, Trout, Upton, Pujols, Cron.  Hoping that 2B is Neil Walker. 

 

I am very happy with Trout batting second and Pujols third. Those are ideal spots for both players. The 1st and 4th spots in the lineup lead off innings more than any others, so OBP and base running are important considerations in those spots, while the third spot comes up with 2 outs and no one on most often, so power is key there.

 

With that in mind I think we need to be looking at this in terms of getting a #4 and a #1 hitter, but without the historical implications of those spots. Both players need to get on base most importantly, while whoever hits 4th should have a little more power and average. With that in mind, I think we simply need to be looking for good hitters in general. Whether you get Hayward and bat him 1st or 4th is not particularly important. It's about adding that run scoring ability in front of Trout and adding in that hitting ability behind him. We have the LF and 2B spots available to do this. 

 

The question at that point is who can we get? Both spots are absolutely vital. Getting Heyward or Zobrist are dream candidates because they could hit in either spot just fine. The question then revolves around the second player, who we can get and what they can do? Upton isn't going to take that lead off spot, and I don't think Daniel Murphy is either.

 

Some of these are already not options, we just don't know which ones. We will have some sort of a budget, and there will be players that have an idea about wanting to play for teams other than the Angels. It's a tough thing to juggle but I hop Eppler is looking at the situation in a similar context.

Edited December 5, 2015 by AngelsLakersFan