2016 Los Angeles Angels Primer Part III

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Staff Writer - 

Author’s Note – Player data displayed was pulled on September 20th, 2015.

The departure of Chris Iannetta into free agency this year leaves the Angels catching situation up in the air.

Carlos Perez, acquired in the Hank Conger trade, is the lone remnant and certainly has the inside track to earn the strong or weak side of the backstop platoon in 2016.

Fortunately the Angels do have some decent internal options to compete for the two primary roster spots in Spring Training including Jett Bandy (RHH), Charlie Cutler (LHH), Stephen McGee (RHH), and Rafael Lopez (LHH).

To understand and better compare each of these player’s offensive contributions, let’s take a look at four different statistical categories starting with Isolated Power (ISO):

Here Bandy shines through with a pretty consistent power history. Lopez and Perez are certainly no slouches and Cutler does well generating base hits. McGee is still developing but power isn’t a major part of his skill set.

To further understand the difference in their respective games the graph below shows Walk-to-Strikeout ratio (BB/K):

This graph shows why Bandy, hitting-wise, is more like a Mark Trumbo version of a catcher. In fact as this article was being polished up the Twins-Angels game was on and Bandy had his first career hit for a home run!

Cutler, Lopez, and even McGee, to a lesser degree, shine through in their ability to work walks and limit strikeouts. Perez is somewhere in between but it is his defense, arm, and game-calling that are currently driving his future.

Since we are talking catchers here, it would be nice to compare their Caught Stealing Percentage, shown in the graph below:

This is one aspect of Perez’s game that shines through. Bandy and Lopez are pretty consistent too while the data on McGee is limited but shows potential. Cutler’s arm, unfortunately, has been on the decline.

Every one of these catchers, except Cutler, is considered above average defensively with Bandy and McGee having superior defensive reputations.

As a side note, speaking of catcher defense, it really looks like the Angels have targeted catchers with some combination of good on-base ability and strong throwing arms.

Thinking in a logical manner about catcher decline, backstops generally lose speed and power primarily due to the amount of crouching they do on a regular basis that impacts their lower half.

The two things that aren’t impacted by a catcher’s lower half is their batting eye and throwing arm. Both of these characteristics are more likely to extend a catcher’s usefulness over a prolonged period of time which some teams may deem more desirable.

Also, the Angels move to acquire more strong-armed catchers might be in anticipation of a future where strike-calling is eventually computerized but that is speculation on the author’s part.

However some evidence of this trend is seen when the Angels selected catcher Taylor Ward with their 1st draft pick in 2015. Ward, in his first season, has a 35.7% CS% and .456 OBP across Rookie and A ball and is considered a quality defensive backstop.

If a computerized system were used, pitch-framing would quickly become a dead art and the focus would be on game calling and catch and throw ability although, as Dave Cameron pointed out, stolen bases aren’t necessarily back on the rise.

So calling a good game and, as Eno Sarris wrote, playing the poker game might be the most desirable quality of a catcher moving forward.

Finally, to close out the statistical discussion, let’s examine the comprehensive offensive statistic Weighted Runs Created (wRC+), below:

When you examine the graph it is pretty clear that Charlie Cutler has some serious potential to impact team offense with his superior contact and on-base skills. In fact FanGraphs highlighted his potential in mid-November 2014, prior to the 2015 season.

Rafael Lopez also looks like he could be above average in the batter’s box especially vs. RHP. In combination with his above average defensive skill set he becomes an intriguing option for the 2016 Angels squad.

McGee has a shorter playing history (less data) but his game is similar to Cutler in terms of his on-base skills.

This is not to knock Perez or Bandy and with Carlos you have to consider that his 2015 season has been spent in the Majors and he is the youngest of the group which is, in part, why the Angels are so excited by his progress and potential.

In fact he has been working hard on his defensive game and it shows based on recent comments from Mike Scioscia.

Outside of the in-house choices the free agent market should have more than a sufficient supply of catchers to choose from including Matt Wieters, Chris Iannetta, Alex Avila, Dioner Navarro, A.J. Pierzynski, Jeff Mathis (Ha!), Geovany Soto, and Brayan Pena among others.

To get a better idea of how some of these players compare to our internal options (and keep the Majors vs. Minors comparison in mind here) their ISO, BB/K, CS%, and wRC+ graphs for the last five years are presented below:

Looking at these graphs you begin to realize how consistently good Chris Iannetta was, offensively, from 2011-2014.

It also makes you stop and question the value of investing a large amount of cash in free agent Matt Wieters because his skill set isn’t really substantially better than Iannetta and Chris can be signed for a lot less.

Wieters is likely to command a free agent contract similar to Brian McCann, spanning 5-7 years for $75MM-100MM. Iannetta is much more likely to sign a 3-4 year contract for $30MM-40MM.

Additionally, when you consider that the Angels don’t have DH at-bats to give to Wieters, the investment in dollars for a part-time player just doesn’t make enough sense for the team and their needs.

As a final note about the free agents compared above, Alex Avila might actually be the best value as he is only 28, can hit RHP well, and has a good arm. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him sign a 4-6 year contract for $40MM-60MM if he doesn’t give the Tigers a hometown discount.

Beyond the internal and free agent choices the Angels could look to the trade market to fulfill their needs.

Names such as Ryan Lavarnway (Braves AAA), Gary Sanchez (Yankees AAA), Johnny Monell (Mets AAA), Taylor Davis (Cubs AA), and Chris O’Dowd (Braves AA) might hold varying degrees of interest to the Halos.

Currently the Angels have Perez, Lopez, and Bandy all on the 40-man roster which would indicate that solving the 2016 catching situation internally is the likely outcome.

However a free agent signing could allow the Angels to trade from their depth as Carlos Perez did attract a lot of inquiries after the Angels acquired him from the Astros and Jett Bandy has put himself on the radar with a strong 2015 season.

Also the Angels might have experience concerns with the in-house options, making the proverbial veteran backstop a more ideal choice to pair with one of our younger guys.

The bottom line is that this is a need that could be met in multiple ways which gives the Angels flexibility in the offseason to possibly pursue bargain contracts with a free agent knowing they have in-house depth if they fail to sign one.

Educated Guess – The Angels will explore re-signing Chris Iannetta or signing Alex Avila but will likely promote from within.

If they re-sign Chris it would very likely mean that Carlos Perez would be traded for help in another area of need. However, if they sign Avila he would provide a more appropriate platoon mate for Perez.

Barring bargain deals on Iannetta or Avila, the Angels save money here and run Lopez, Bandy, or Cutler out on the weak side of the platoon with Perez.

Whomever doesn’t make the platoon (Cutler seems very likely since he’s not currently on the 40-man) would act as quality depth.

Author’s Choice – Carlos Perez (90-120 games) and Rafael Lopez (40-70 games).

In the next section we’ll discuss First Base.

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[tomsred]

Another excellent review Robert.  This is a tough call, there is a lot to digest here.  Bandy is kind of a mystery to me, I'd didn't think he would ever approach the majors a couple of years ago, but he had a pretty eye opening season last year.  Maybe we need to see if he can repeat his AAA performance.  So I would be in favor of a veteran plus Perez.  The cheap route is to give Iannetta another chance, the expensive route is to go after Avila.  How much we can bite off will depend who gets signed at other positions.  I going to go look up the names you referenced in the minors in other organizations, and learn a little more about them.

[Second Base]

Hard to picture the organization favoring and promoting any candidate over Bandy.

I think what most people don't know is that Bandy is Scioscia's guy, he has been for a couple seasons now. Every year, he seems to separate himself from the pack with Camp Scioscia.

Not only is he an exquisite defensive catcher, he's highly intelligent, runs the pitching staff well and is very athletic.

This kid will be a solid platoon partner.

[ettin]

It could go either way Scotty, Bandy is just as good an option and might have the inside track because of his defense. The Author's Choice is just a personal preference because I like Lopez's skill set but Bandy would be just as pleasing.

[gotbeer]

nice writeup.  It's nice to have so many good options.  Especially with the salary crunch we are kind of in.  

[Docwaukee]

Nice job Robert.  

 

I don't think any of the other guys beyond Perez and Bandy are on the radar.  I could see them going after a LHed backup with good splits vs RHed pitching like Avila. To me, the other guys in our org are just filler.  

 

I think Ward will be ready to compete for a job in 2018.  

 

I'd like to see Bandy get a legit shot.  His defense is as good as Perez if not better and his bat has the most potential.  

[Brent Maguire]

It's risky to go with a Bandy/Perez platoon but based on the financial situation and needs in other areas, it may be the way to go. I don't mind Iannetta coming back on a cheap 1 year deal but even then, you'd assume he can still get 5 mil AAV and we need all the money we can use towards a new LF/3B/2B. If there's enough money leftover, however, Iannetta could make sense. His offense cratered but even a slight bounce back would still make Iannetta a nice platoon bat. 

[Inside Pitch]

Great work....     Catching spot can only get better from where it was last year.

[Angel Oracle]

Perez/Bandy would be a young platoon, but an intriguing one as well.
Both have good defensive tools, and both will contribute at the plate just enough.

Decision time likely comes after 2017, when Ward could be joining the battle.

 

With Perez, Bandy, Lopez, and Ward, the Halos really don't need a platoon veteran in the distant future.

If anything maybe a Drew Butera type, someone to come in for ST to mentor more than anything and maybe make the roster if Bandy needs another partial AAA season. 

Edited October 27, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[JE Cromet]

Excellent research Robert.  I agree that Avila would be a good choice for a platooning job with Perez but what do you think about Saltalamacchia as an unexpensive replacement for Iannetta? Saltalamacchia is still young (30), is durable (played 158 games last season with three teams) and numbers wise it wasn't a bad season for him .251 BA; .332 OBP; .474 SLG; and .805 OPS; he is a switch hitter which will come handy for Scioscia, and best of all, I think he won't be too expensive.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I think Perez has definitely earned the starting catcher job, but I am a little weary of going into the 2016 season with him and Bandy as the duo. Both had break out years in 2015, and odds are that one or both will regress to some extent in 2016. Bandy can't afford to lose development time if he struggles and ends up sitting the bench like Chris Iannetta did, and we really can't afford to find ourselves in a situation where both catchers are struggling, so I think a veteran catcher who can split time with Perez is ideal.

 

First I should add, that I think your contract expectations for these catchers is straight up cray cray. None of these guys are very good or reliable. If they are getting big money then we are better off not getting any of them.

 

Iannetta is gone. It's been clear since Scioscia sat him for a week that Chris was not going to come back. 

 

Avila I don't like. I'm concerned with his long term health and production, so I'd hate to see the team throw a lot of money his way.

Weiters will probably get paid based on name recognition, but if the team can get him for close to his real value (2/$20)  then I think he'd make an ideal partner. 

 

Saltalamachia is a good choice too, but he is probably looking for a place where he will be the primary catcher and play 120+ games.

 

Jeff Mathis is one of the worst players ever but, he is Scioscia's son, and Mike and Eppler have been getting along really well so far...

[Chuck]

Fantastic series so far, Robert. Looking forward to the rest. 

[nikkachez]

I'll eat my shoe if Avila gets that much on the market.

[nikkachez]

I'd prefer Bandy to get full time at-bats in the minors. I'd look at Soto or Avila for cheap deals or maybe flipping Salas for Hanigan. This shouldn't be a huge area of concern this winter, but it'll need some depth.

[Stradling]

I wonder if you will see Eppler go after Weiters to be the platoon catcher and DH. You would have to think that Eppler would be very familiar with him because they played against him 18 times a year.

[Glen]

Good stuff.  I agree with the consensus, which seems to be give the full-time job to Perez and get a relatively inexpensive veteran back-up (hit up Atlanta for A J Pierzynski, **** it, why not).  Put Bandy in AAA for the year (or call him up later in the season if the situation warrants) and let him develop.  

[ettin]

nice writeup.  It's nice to have so many good options.  Especially with the salary crunch we are kind of in.  

 

I'll get more into this in the rest of the series but if Arte lets salary get in the way this offseason and the succeeding ones he might as well sell low and trade Mike Trout because he'll be wasting his production by not spending big and surrounding him with the best supporting cast he can. Thanks for the compliment!

 

Nice job Robert.  

 

I don't think any of the other guys beyond Perez and Bandy are on the radar.  I could see them going after a LHed backup with good splits vs RHed pitching like Avila. To me, the other guys in our org are just filler.  

 

I think Ward will be ready to compete for a job in 2018.  

 

I'd like to see Bandy get a legit shot.  His defense is as good as Perez if not better and his bat has the most potential.  

 

Thanks for the compliment appreciate it! The LH'ed backup is actually the reason I picked Lopez over Bandy in my Author's Choice pick. Lopez has a solid all around skill set and hits RHP much better than he does LHP making him a slightly better choice for 2016 at least in my mind when you consider Bandy's experience level. However as I mentioned above in response to Scotty I like Bandy too and if he is the backup it's all good as far as I'm concerned.

 

In regards to the filler McGee right now needs more Minor League development but if we were in a real emergency he could fill in temporarily. However I'd disagree with you to an extent (at least offensively) regarding Cutler. I think that guy is an on-base machine waiting to happen but his positional home is actually in jeopardy as his catching skills aren't the best in the world. On a Mike Scioscia team that is probably a death sentence but if the Angels ever needed him I think he'd pleasantly surprise everyone with his offensive contributions.

 

Bandy is deserving I think. On a Mike Scioscia team he certainly has appeal without a doubt and he has thump which in this day and age of high K's, big power is a plus so again I'd be happy if he platoons with Perez as well.

 

It's risky to go with a Bandy/Perez platoon but based on the financial situation and needs in other areas, it may be the way to go. I don't mind Iannetta coming back on a cheap 1 year deal but even then, you'd assume he can still get 5 mil AAV and we need all the money we can use towards a new LF/3B/2B. If there's enough money leftover, however, Iannetta could make sense. His offense cratered but even a slight bounce back would still make Iannetta a nice platoon bat. 

 

Risk evaluation is a big part of this entire offseason and what I talk about in the Primer. Prospects have larger "error bars", meaning that their performances (good or bad) have a higher rate of fluctuation and inconsistency. In this particular case I still think going young and internally is the best route performance wise and financially but it would not surprise me to see the Angels sign a veteran backstop, particularly on a Minor League deal for a defense first type (someone else mentioned Butera which would be that type) as depth in case any one or both of the platoon stumble out of the gate.

 

Financially if Arte goes total Scrooge on us we will literally have almost no choice but to go internal. Even if he opens the floodgates, catching is still a low priority in terms of spending.

 

Iannetta has one last chance here to have a significant payday and unless he just absolutely loves playing for the Angels I don't see how or why he would agree to just a one year FA deal. AFL reminded us earlier that Iannetta sat on the bench the last couple of weeks which is not a complete reflection on Chris but more of a reflection on how well Perez was doing. I just don't see Chris agreeing to be a backup and getting paid like one so AFL is probably very correct that he's gone unless playing with Mike Trout is a perk that he can't live without.

 

Perez/Bandy would be a young platoon, but an intriguing one as well.

Both have good defensive tools, and both will contribute at the plate just enough.

Decision time likely comes after 2017, when Ward could be joining the battle.

 

With Perez, Bandy, Lopez, and Ward, the Halos really don't need a platoon veteran in the distant future.

If anything maybe a Drew Butera type, someone to come in for ST to mentor more than anything and maybe make the roster if Bandy needs another partial AAA season. 

 

Yeah as I said above the Angels will very likely sign a couple of veteran defense-first type catchers to Minor League deals in case Lopez or Bandy stumble out of the gate.

 

Excellent research Robert.  I agree that Avila would be a good choice for a platooning job with Perez but what do you think about Saltalamacchia as an unexpensive replacement for Iannetta? Saltalamacchia is still young (30), is durable (played 158 games last season with three teams) and numbers wise it wasn't a bad season for him .251 BA; .332 OBP; .474 SLG; and .805 OPS; he is a switch hitter which will come handy for Scioscia, and best of all, I think he won't be too expensive.

 

"Salty" (as Mike would call him if he were here) is actually someone I considered adding to this conversation but I had to pare down my list some so that the graphs wouldn't look to convoluted! He certainly could be a potential option as his defense isn't horrible and he has some pop particularly from the left side of the plate vs. RHP. Everything revolves around spending this offseason so if he is really cheap on a short 1 or 2 year deal then it might happen without a doubt.

 

I think Perez has definitely earned the starting catcher job, but I am a little weary of going into the 2016 season with him and Bandy as the duo. Both had break out years in 2015, and odds are that one or both will regress to some extent in 2016. Bandy can't afford to lose development time if he struggles and ends up sitting the bench like Chris Iannetta did, and we really can't afford to find ourselves in a situation where both catchers are struggling, so I think a veteran catcher who can split time with Perez is ideal.

 

First I should add, that I think your contract expectations for these catchers is straight up cray cray. None of these guys are very good or reliable. If they are getting big money then we are better off not getting any of them.

 

Iannetta is gone. It's been clear since Scioscia sat him for a week that Chris was not going to come back. 

 

Avila I don't like. I'm concerned with his long term health and production, so I'd hate to see the team throw a lot of money his way.

Weiters will probably get paid based on name recognition, but if the team can get him for close to his real value (2/$20)  then I think he'd make an ideal partner. 

 

Saltalamachia is a good choice too, but he is probably looking for a place where he will be the primary catcher and play 120+ games.

 

Jeff Mathis is one of the worst players ever but, he is Scioscia's son, and Mike and Eppler have been getting along really well so far...

 

I may be completely off my rocker but as I told tdawg in another thread I think this offseason will be flush with cash and there will be multiple teams spending said cash. Wieters age, ISO, and defensive reputation will get him paid more than many will expect. That quote I put in there may be too high as I wrote this particular section about a month and a half ago and I don't think I reevaluated the number but catchers with power aren't plentiful especially if they play good defense (which most don't). But yeah I might be high as a kite on some of these guesses or I'll be coming back and bumping threads saying "I agree" or "Yes".

 

In regards to Iannetta riding the bench you are probably quite correct in that he will not be back.

 

I'll eat my shoe if Avila gets that much on the market.

 

You could very well be right but he is young, hits RHP well (with some pop), and is a above average defender. Perhaps I'm wrong on the amount but a 4-6 year contract isn't totally out of the question in my amateur opinion. By the way sole food is great!

 

I'd prefer Bandy to get full time at-bats in the minors. I'd look at Soto or Avila for cheap deals or maybe flipping Salas for Hanigan. This shouldn't be a huge area of concern this winter, but it'll need some depth.

 

Not a terrible idea in principal as Hanigan's salary is very affordable.

 

I wonder if you will see Eppler go after Weiters to be the platoon catcher and DH. You would have to think that Eppler would be very familiar with him because they played against him 18 times a year.

 

There are some scenarios I see where we trade C.J. Cron and if that happens Wieters could be on the table at that point but Cron would have to be moved for that to make any sense. Cron grew on me at the end of the year but if he can be included in a trade package to bring back a front line starter I think you have to pull the trigger. Also Wieters price has to be within the realm of reason. One thing working against this idea Strad is that Wieters career wRC+ vs. RHP is only 90, 10% below average.

[Broad Street]

So Cutler doesn't have much power, but is that something he can grow into? He seems to have a good eye at the plate, how does he project at the major league level? Obviously his arm is a concern for catcher, but could he be worked into another position? How good is his defense behind the plate?

[Brent Maguire]

 

Jeff Mathis is one of the worst players ever but, he is Scioscia's son, and Mike and Eppler have been getting along really well so far...

 

NO

[ettin]

So Cutler doesn't have much power, but is that something he can grow into? He seems to have a good eye at the plate, how does he project at the major league level? Obviously his arm is a concern for catcher, but could he be worked into another position? How good is his defense behind the plate?

 

Cutler is primarily a doubles gap to gap type of hitter. He has really good on-base skills and knows how to take a walk and avoid a strikeout. In a perfect world he'd probably be a great 2-hole hitter. Problem is that he's at an age where he has probably filled out physically and his defense from the catcher position is average at best and probably slightly below average. Where does he go then? LF?

 

And that's the rub he doesn't have the traditional power you'd prefer to see in an OF or corner INF. Not sure if he has the range for 2B for instance. He's kind of in no man's land which isn't good from a positional perspective.

 

But man does he run consistently high OBP's (.393 Minor League career average). Generally he walks just as much if not more than he strikesout.

[nikkachez]

I know McGee's in the AFL so the Angels must think highly of him. 

[Angel Oracle]

What Angels_Baseball said....

Scioscia would be too tempted to start Mathis 40% of the time.

[Mark68]

What about McKenry as a platoon partner for Perez? Dude hits righties pretty well, but also gets on base vs lefties.

Edited October 27, 2015 by Mark68

[ettin]

What about McKenry as a platoon partner for Perez? Dude hits righties pretty well, but also gets on base vs lefties.

I like the idea of McKenry but if the Angels had wanted him they could have had him on waivers last week so I'm guessing that he's not on their wish list.

[Troll Daddy]

I have my doubts going into the season with Perez as our #1 option as catcher. Hopefully Eppler is thinking the same way.