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The rotation


jecho_21

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I think as a GM you should just presume these days that you'll lose at least one SP to TJ surgery each year, maybe two. Shoemaker's arm is concerning, and an injury to Heaney or Richards would be particularly damaging.

 

I'm not entirely on board with the idea of signing a SP given our depth, but it does make sense if it allows you to trade a young, cheap arm for a young, cheap bat. Another consistent, durable arm in the equation would be good.

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It looks like we might have 9+ starters going into 2016

 

Richards

Heaney

Santiago

Weaver

Wilson

Shoemaker

Tropeano

Skaggs

Newcomb (probably a stretch…)

 

I say trade CJ and/or Hector to shed payroll for the offense.

That's a list full of  5 inning guys.  I'd keep CJ he's 1 of 2 pitchers that can go 7 innings or more often. If CJ  allows a trade, our bullpen will be exhausted.

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It comes down to return vs. future value to the Angels, as well as who they could actually trade. Weaver has no trade value, Wilson almost none - unless the Angels swallow a lot of his contract. Santiago is most likely to get traded as he has some value but isn't absolutely necessary for the future of the team. Shoemaker would be number two, followed by Tropeano.

 

The only pitchers that are probably penciled in for 30 starts right now are Richards and Heaney. Skaggs will depend on how he comes back, but I could see him gettting 150 innings, maybe 20-25 starts and some relief work. Tropeano probably doesn't have equivalent trade value to his value to the team so is worth keeping. Newcomb probably won't be called up until midseason at the earliest, possibly later.

 

So I think we're going to see a couple pitchers (Richards, Heaney) get 30+ starts, a few with 15-25 (Wilson, Weaver, Tropeano, Skaggs, Shoemaker) unless one or more clearly emerges, and then maybe a few starts from Newcomb and Santiago traded. It would be nice to go into the postseason with a solid four.

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I find it funny you guys make fun Scioscia for not looking at the stats. Clearly you guys haven't looked at the stats on CJ.  It's laughable to put CJ wilson in the pen.  CJ's era was 3.89.  15 of 21  starts he went 6 innings or more in a game. He stopped pitching on July 28th.

 

 

G rich went 17 of 21 of going 6 innings or more in a game.

Edited by ispy45
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Weaver and Wilson are both due $20+ Million for 2016. They will be in the rotation if healthy and /or not traded. That kind of money doesn't go to the pen. 

 

Wilson has value, not much, but some. They could trade him for an equally expensive player in his 30's, especially to a pitching needy team. Andre Ethier is due 38 Million in 2016, and 2017 with a 2018 vesting option that could increase that to around 53M. He had a comeback year, but that's a lot of contract. The Dodgers would love to move him and get a prospect plus a solid starter in return. They have a limit on their payroll, I'm sure, even though it's far above other teams. 

 

Or they could ask for Carl Crawford. His stats aren't nearly what Ethier had in 2015.

 

One of those two is likely to be moved. And the Dodgers would have to eat some contract. They'd love to get a #3/4 starter for a contract already on their books seeing as Greinke is going to ask for 7 years and $214M. 

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Hope we can make it to 2017, when it could look like:  Richards, Heaney, Tropeano, Newcomb, and Ellis?

Three lefties in a rotation is always a sketchy thing, due to many more good righty hitters existing.

 

Santiago should be dealt now.

Try Shoe in the pen in 2016, the splitter could make him really solid there and less stress on the forearm. 

Weave probably retires after 2016.   

Let Nibs try to regain 2013 magic for 2016.

Give Skaggs through 2016, and hope he regains enough trade power. 

Nate Smith is also available in 2016, should the rotation need some help.

 

Start off 2016 with: Richards, Nibs, Heaney, Tropeano, and Weave/Skaggs?

Edited by Angel Oracle
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2016 Rotation:

Richards, Weaver, Wilson, Heaney and Skaggs (pitch/inning count)

 

Newcomb will be in Triple A, with the possibility of a 2nd half or September call up

 

Santiago (I was mocked earlier about this), will be moved.

Shoemaker and Tropeano will stay in Triple A

 

Weaver and Wilson are both done after 2016 (Wilson can block a trade to 8 teams next year).  I do not see us acquiring starting pitching, unless a David Price falls into our laps, but I think Richards, Skaggs, Heaney and Newcomb are the 2017 cornerstone starters.

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This is probably a borderline top 15 rotation entering next year. Most likely in the 15-17 range. 

 

Richards should bounce back but he's more of a #2/3 guy based on the overall track record. Heaney is a dependable #3 guy. After that, it gets a little hazy. Santiago is a #4/5 starter with huge inconsistency issues. Skaggs is coming off TJ. Wilson and Shoemaker both have arm issues. Weaver is barely a MLB pitcher at this point. Tropeano, Newcomb, Ellis and Smith is good depth to have though. 

 

This group certainly has the potential to be good-great if 1)Richards bounces back in a huge way 2)Heaney continues a positive development and 3)Skaggs shows no signs of rust and pitches 180 quality innings. Even if 2 of those 3 things happen, this could be a top 10 rotation. 

 

I don't think we should bank on this happening however. However, I do love the possible 2017 rotation of Richards, Heaney, Newcomb, Skaggs and Tropeano/Ellis. 

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I find it funny you guys make fun Scioscia for not looking at the stats. Clearly you guys haven't looked at the stats on CJ.  It's laughable to put CJ wilson in the pen.  CJ's era was 3.89.  15 of 21  starts he went 6 innings or more in a game. He stopped pitching on July 28th.

 

 

G rich went 17 of 21 of going 6 innings or more in a game.

 

I'm not against putting CJ back in the rotation next year, but he's by no means a lock. A FIP around 4.00 is not exactly screaming 'rotation lock.'

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